Dog Handicapping

[Mad Gambler]

As you are well aware, there are several sofware program that help in the handcapping of a dog race. Some good, some bad.

My question is apart from box draw and change in weight from 1 start to the next, what other factors should I be considering. My list is:

Box draw -- has it won from the box before.
Has the dog won at the distance.
Fast/Slow beginner.

Mad Gambler

[downbylaw]

I would also look at...

Does it rail or run wide.
PB and date of PB.
The age of the dog.
Location of previous runs.
Its box position compared to others. ie: a wide runner on the inside of one that likes to rail etc.
The trainer.
Its breeding. A great site for that is greyhound-data.com

Im not sure what data these handicapping systems use, so hopefully you find some of that usefull.

[wesmip1]

Also keep a tab on how disadvantaged the dog was due to a check in each race and take this into aco****.

For example a dog that loses by 2 lengths but has a C4 in the formline should have won the race if it wasn't checked. ie C4 = checked and lost 4 lengths.

Good Luck.

[downbylaw]

Just came back too add probly one of the most important factors and wesmip has beat me to it lol.

[moeee]

Also keep a tab on how disadvantaged the dog was due to a check in each race and take this into aco****.

For example a dog that loses by 2 lengths but has a C4 in the formline should have won the race if it wasn't checked. ie C4 = checked and lost 4 lengths.

Good Luck.
2 Things.

Please mind your language!

And.I thought C4 was a Class 4 handicap!

[kenchar]

Wenty Park,

R3 no7
R6 no5
R7 no8.

Please yourself but I'll be backing 'em.

[wesmip1]

moee,


yeah I have to mind my langauge .... especially when I miss type the word account. LOL

I usually stick to Vic races and use the watchdog formguides. In these the following is used :

No C1 means checked 1 length, C2 checked 2 lengths ... C8 checked 8 lengths and C9 checked 9 lengths.

R means railed, W means ran wide

For stating S = slow, M=medium and Q= quick on most form guides.

I guess it depends on which guide you look at.

Good Luck.

[downbylaw]

Yeah moeee c1-9 is lengths the dog lost from the check. The grade of race is usaully at the end of the race name ie. the downbylaw cup gr5 (final) which means its a grade 5 race.

[moeee]

Only Joking!
I didn't really think it meant class.But now that I know what it does stand for,I can use it.
Am also learning about 1st splits.
After a shocker last night,the Sale cup heats are calling me!

[wesmip1]

Moee,

somehting to watch in regard splits that got me when I first started using them. They are different for different tracks and different race lengths.

They are useful if you can work out a way to make them correspond. I usually use splits of the same distance and adjust for tracks as necessary.

Good luck with it.

[jonron]

I dont know a great deal about the panlickers,but if what I heard on a Skychannel promo for their dog ratings is correct,then I would think Mooee is on the right track with splits,especially the first split.The guy doing the promo stated that 72% of all winners at the dogs are in front on the first turn!!Can any of the experts on here confirm/refute that statement?If it is true I might have to start having a more serious look at this avenue.

[wesmip1]

jonron,

I have heard this stat many times and personally think it is about right.

The problem is splits are just one aspect of the dog getting to the first turn. Other things to look into include which way the dogs run when they gets out of the box as they tend to bump each other, the weight of the dog to see whether a check will affect it, how quick is the dog out of the box ( Quick, medium, Slow ), box bias, scratchings, position relative to other dogs, etc, etc, etc.

Also you will find most dogs which should be in the first two at the corner are very short priced. They are then checked becaue they were slow out of the box and some other dog gets to the corner first.

Good Luck

[jonron]

Wes

Thanks mate,as I said dont know that much about the dogs.Am thinking about doing something with concentration on box 1 only,implying some rules from the data you have posted.Not every race,and not at too short a price.Think I am letting myself in for some work here!

[downbylaw]

Wes

Thanks mate,as I said dont know that much about the dogs.Am thinking about doing something with concentration on box 1 only,implying some rules from the data you have posted.Not every race,and not at too short a price.Think I am letting myself in for some work here!The problem with concenrating on box 1 is that a lot of others do as well and you will find that its price will reflect that. As you said though you might be in for some hard yakka and thats pretty much spot on. I can sit here some nights for 2-3 hours and only find one runner worth having a go at. While i do pick out plenty of others that go on to win im not chasing the $1.50 - 2.50 winner as i think the risk should equal the reward.

[wesmip1]

jonron,

You are much better picking box 3,4,5,6 to concentrate on.

The reason is that these boxes are usually regarded as the most unfortunate to draw as dogs can get "squeezed" when leaving them by the dogs on both sides.

This is where you find many dogs at good odds.

One strategy to concentrate on is to find dogs which are either very quick out of the box and therefore can avoid getting squeezed or find a dog in one of these boxes where a scratching has left a vacant box beside it or find a box where the dogs on either side will go in opposite directions ( ie the inside dog will rail and the outdide dog will run wide). This will allow you to get some very good overs as most amatuer money goes on Box 1.

I have a very simple strategy that works on boxes 4 to 6. Works a treat and only takes 20 secs to work out if the dog is worth a bet.

Good Luck.

[jonron]

Downbylaw
Thanks mate for the reply and input.I see where you are coming with the 1 box quite often being overbet.It is my intention to avoid odds on like the plague.I would accept $2 but no shorter.I intend to start small,do the hard yards and be very selective,as obviously you are.I want to operate on the 4 main states and win $20 a night for each State to begin with.Am I pipe dreaming??Would a progression staking plan be the go,or just add a loss to the target?Also as I live in a semi remote area I cannot buy a decent dog formguide,can you give me any websites that provide same,there must be some,I just dont know of any.
cheers

[baco60]

http://www.graq.org.au/graq5/flash/hotdog2.swf

[wesmip1]

jonron,

I stick to the victorian races as much more infromation is avialable through the watchdog formguides.

See www.grv.org.au (http://www.grv.org.au) for the details.

I also look as the tassie tote as most formguides are availabel there (hotdog form guides) or via the ozeform website.

Good Luck.

[jonron]

Thanks Baco60

cheers

[downbylaw]

JONRON,

http://www.grv.org.au/central/index.php
http://www.greyhoundswa.com.au/13227.htm
http://www.graq.org.au/home.asp
http://www.greyhoundracingsa.com.au/
http://www.greyhound-data.com/

The vic and w.a. guides are the best of the bunch by far. Another site to look at is greyoundform.com.au they produce National Greyhound Form newspaper which includes a form guide that goes back three races. IMO it not much of a help but its better than nothing.

In regards to turning a $20 profit each night i think thats a pretty achievable goal but be prepared to put in the hours. The reason i say this is because of the very unstable market, in the blink of an eye dogs come in from 8/1 to 3/1 so while 3 min before the race 8/1 was great 1 minute later 3/1 is looking pretty crappy. Also start with a decent size bank that can handle the bad nights.

I usually just bet a flat amount unless its purely for entertainment then ill drop my stake. One thing ive learnt the hard way is to not decrease your bet just because its the rank outsider and no one else rates its chances.

Goodluck with it all.