getting the right price - total newbie question

[dngu047]

Let's suppose you've framed your market and you know that you'll take a particular horse if you can get a price of say, $4.00 or above. Because price fluctuations can be quite large, how do you guys ensure that the end price you get is $4.00 or more?

[becareful]

To guarantee you get the odds you want you need bet with a bookie so you secure the odds at the time.

If betting with TAB then you need to bet at the last possible moment (bet on Internet rather than by phone) and have access to a live update of the odds (Sky Racing is pretty good as long as your horse is in the top 8 - I do not have Teletext access but I believe the odds there are also fairly regularly updated). The odds shown on the various Internet sites are always a bit behind the Sky update. In my experience the NSW/QLD are better than than Tabcorp. Generally speaking if the TAB releases an update it appears on Sky within a few seconds and about 5-10 seconds later on NSW/Qld web sites - Tabcorp can take 15-25 seconds to update their web site.

If you want to bet into Tabcorp pool I recommend you have a look at the WA TAB site (ozbet.com.au) - the big advantage being you have up to a minute after your bet to cancel it (if race hasn't jumped). This can be good if there is a race delay (eg. horse breaks through barrier) and you want to review your bet or if they update the odds just before the jump and your horse has plunged it below your threshold.

[Equine Investor]

Basically you can't unless you get fixed odds. However, you can tilt things in your favour by betting when the win pools are large..E.G. Saturday's, Wednesday's.

Also look at the trends, often in the last 5 minutes horses that are in the top three or four betting wise will have a good chance of trimming up and others drifting in price.

One way of further ensuring you get the right price is betting with a bookmaker who will give you top fluctuation.

If you are only betting on the tote, then look up the prices in the state pool of the race.
For example..If you have a bet in Perth, go to the Perth tab website and look at the price there. Chances are if there's a big difference in that price and your State price, it will go close to the home state price...but not always.
It's just a guide.

[Equine Investor]

becareful, you beat me again!

:grin:

[becareful]

EI - You're still beating me in the number of posts count though :grin:

With your point on the home TAB it pays to remember that Supertab is really the "home" TAB for races in Vic, WA, Tas & ACT. Unitab is "home" for SA, Qld & NT. With Supertab the way the odds are worked out is:
1. Tabcorp computer sends request to other TAB's computers for a "collation update"
2. Other TABs computers send the collation totals (total value of win and place bets on each horse and value of Quinella bets on each combination) to TABCORP
3. TABCORP computer adds these collations to their own totals then calculates the odds for each runner.
4. Odds are released to Agencies, SKY, Teletext, Website (eventually!), etc, and also sent back to the Other TABS who then must update their own displays, websites, etc.

This all takes a little time so probably explains why Supertab is slower than the others at doing these updates.

[Equine Investor]

Point taken becareful. It may be useful when backing on Supertab to look at Unitab and NSWtab though when getting prices.

WA was a bad example.

[Debug]

The only other option I suppose is to factor in a buffer. If $4.00 is your minimum expectation look for a price of $4.50 before taking the bet. Not always easy and perhaps you already do this anyway.
The dogs are the worst - its like being on a roller-coaster.

[dngu047]

Thanks for the replies it's what I had suspected. So how do you guys place your bets? Do you wait for the last few minutes before a race or do you get fixed prices at a bookmaker? Do different bookmakers have significantly different prices? I.e. is it worthwhile having half a dozen or so different accounts?

[becareful]

At the moment I do all my betting with the TAB's (my current system backs longer odds horses that generally pay better with TAB than bookies). I have accounts with NSW, WA & Qld (most betting is with NSW and WA) and place the bet with the TAB offering the best odds on the horse in question.

I always place my bet within about 20 seconds of the jump and only if the price on TAB exceeds my bet margin by a threshold amount as Debug indicated - you need to vary this threshold a bit depending on the amount in the pool but about 10% of the price is a good guide.

[dngu047]

Thanks becareful. In your experience does this method generally get you the best odds compared to say, some of the exotic offers from darwin all sport such as divi plus, top fluctuation, guaranteed betting than SP etc?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dngu047 on 2002-07-19 18:57 ]</font>

[shy]

Does anyone know of anyone offering divs equal to the best of the tab divs for a place?? I know Read offers better than Supertab... or am I wishful thinking!
Thanks
shy

[becareful]

dngu047 - For MY betting the highest TAB is better that the IAS offerings for a number of reasons:
1. I do most of my betting during the week at the moment and the IAS Divi+ only operates on a few midweek meetings so 95% of my bets wouldn't be covered.
2. I bet on longer odds horses ($8 and up) so in the majority of cases the TAB pays better that SP or Top Fluct.

If you are betting only on Saturday Metro meetings then Divi+ would be a definite option. Only drawback is that you have to bet 1 minute before sched jump which can be a problem if your horse is close to your betting limit on all TABs.

If you were betting on shorter priced horses then SP/Top Fluct is often better than TAB - of course with Top Fluct you have to bet about 30 mins prior to jump so you really need the bookie price to be at least at your limit - that way you know you are going to get the price you want and if the TF is higher then that is a bonus.

SHY - Haven't heard of anyone offering to beat best TAB place div. It would be nice if Read would offer 1/4 Win SP for the place.

[Debug]

dngu047 - I do my betting from the local pub on Saturday, putting in my bet about 30 seconds prior to jump. I can't say I am very successful - I usually break even over a period of time.

I have recentl been trialling a paper system at home weekdays, selecing my runner 10 or more minutes before race start according to price movement.I uses teletext or Internet for prices. It seems a bit more successful but time will tell.

[dngu047]

Guys, thanks for all your help. Decided to have a flutter at the races today and, since I wasn't at home to watch the first few races I decided to take the prepost (i.e. fixed odds) prices at Darwin All Sports. As it happened, I backed a winner at a price of $4.00 but afterwards I found top fluctuation paid $4.5, diviplus paid $4.58.

So, given that for some races I won't be there in the half hour or so before start time, I was wondering what the best approach is to try to get the highest price.

Intuitively I would guess that fixed price would be best for favourites, however I don't take many of them today I backed horses at $5.50, $10, $5.50, $12, $4, $12 and $9. Would I be safe is assuming that the long odds bets will ease before race time? In which case, well firstly what price defines a long shot and secondly what's my best option top fluctuation or divi plus?

I was a bit alarmed to see that one of my $12 shots had eased to $21. In a funny way, I'm actually happy it lost because otherwise I would have "lost" nearly half of my profits. Bad odds only affect your profits when your horse wins. Bottom line is I'm looking for which betting option is best for obtaining the highest price (given that I can't be there for some races)

thanks again

[becareful]

dngu047,

There is a page on this site that compares the TAB price to Bookie price for short-priced runners - you might want to have a look at that. Basically they define "short-priced" as under about $5.50 and in this price range the bookies are generally better value. My own research which was based on selections paying $8 and over ONLY indicated that for these runners you are better, on average, with the best TAB dividend. Of course there are always exceptions in both cases - sometimes favourites pay better on the tab and sometimes longshots are better at bookies but in the long run the averages will work out.

So in general I would go with Top Fluct. for horses you expect to be $5.50 or less and TAB or Divi+ for horses you expect to be $8 or more. I can't help you with the middle ground between these two but I suspect you would find that there is not much difference between the two (in the long run).

[Bhagwan]

Try This
Use the price in the newspaper & knock 1-1.5 points off the price shown .

Its amazing how close the end result is on the majority of races, sometimes you get the big overs, which more than makes up for any unders you may strike.

Check it out.

[dngu047]

I think I'm getting my first dose of reality here. Normally when I bet on something like the footy, I can place a couple of bets on Monday then not have to worry about them until the weekend i.e. I can place 5, 6 bets with minimal fuss.

However, would I be correct in saying that in racing, it pretty much takes the whole day? I.e. if you have framed a market for Rosehill on a Tuesday, then you pretty much have to be on call the whole time and check the prices before each race to see whether there are any good bets?

Basically what I'm asking is, is there any way to take a "set and forget" approach where you make all your bets early on, go out and do your daily activities, then return to check the results. Am I living in a dream world? (The exception being of course prepost prices which we've discussed above but which are only available at certain times)

[becareful]

dngu047,

In my opinion you do really need to place your bets close to the start of the race if you are going to make money out of racing. Even good punters generally work on a fairly slim profit margin and it is easy to blow this on a few bad bets. If you want a "set and forget" approach then sports betting is probably the better option.

What would be nice is if you could place your bets with a minimum price - if the Top Fluc. price is above this then the bet is made, if not your money is refunded. This would allow you to place all your bets in the morning without having to check before each race to see if the price is at your required level.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-22 09:53 ]</font>

[dngu047]

becareful, I rang Darwin All Sports today they will cancel your top fluctuation bet if a minimum price is not bet.

[plugga1976]

I just did a check on ozeform website about the difference between longer priced horses say over $8 dollars and you would be surprised how many times top fluc is better.
Again bookies are best and generally speaking unless the price is over $15 top fluc is the way to go but also with a minimum price.