Dapto Dogs tonight

[wesmip1]

Anyone got any tips for tonight at Dapto ?

I'll be heading down for a bit of fun. The track looks like it will be wet.

So far I have the following :

Race 1 : Open affair. Hard to pick a dog and will porbbaly end up taking Box 6.
Race 2 : Easy race between Box 1 and 4. Leaning towards Box 1.
Race 3 : Easy race between Box 4 and 5. Leaning towards Box 4.
Race 4 : Open affair. Hard to pick and I will probably go with Box 6 or 1.
Race 5 : Fairly open but Box 7 and 1 should be the better dogs. Leaning towards Box 1.
Race 6 : Easy race between box 1 and 3. I will be taking Box 1.
Race 7 : Easy race . Only Number 3 is a contender.
Race 8 : Easy race between Boxes 1 and 3. I am leaning towards box 3.
Race 9 : Open affair. I will probably take Box 1 or Box 7.
Race 10 : Easy race. I will be taking Box 5.

Any thoughts on these selections ?

Good Luck.

[moeee]

I pick s h i t so I suggest goodluck tonight.
I wonder why you like Dapto.Maybe Albion Park better quality dogs is better.

[wesmip1]

I like Dapto cause its just down the road ..... well a 15min drive....

[moeee]

Bendigo and Sandown Specials

Those who are familiar with my tipping prowess know which ones not to back.
But for all the newbies,hold on to your hats!

This latest endeavour is to find the certanties and hope that they pay okay.
The problem is like Papyrus found out,you need a very high strike rate,something I certainly have yet to even believe possible.

Bendigo Race 10
No.8 EMANDEE for $25

Sandown Race 2
No.7 Proven Lucky for $15

Sandown Race 4
No.4 Bridge of Hope for $40

Thats $80 more down the drain.

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

What are you using to define a near certainity ? Is it speed out of the box, overall time stats, box draw, etc ?

Good luck

[moeee]

Don't worry about that then.
But It was supposed to be that a dog was much classier than it's opposition.
Wesnip1.
Are you still playing with Kennedy91210 system?
He gone very quiet lately.
Maybe he worked something very good.
I gonna play with his system and any success is all due to his efforts.
Thank you Kennedy91210.

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

Yes I do play with his system with some minor tweaking.
I usually play Any2's with it and hit some nice returns.

Good luck with it.

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

Here is a strategy I use that throws some good winners. Look at the realdogs or hotdogs rating of the dogs. Also check out the tipsters pick for each race.
Find races where they mostly disagree on who will win. This gives you a race where the odds might be some value. Just before the race run the dogs through the system and if one dog shows a good chance of winning and is paying morethan $4.00 back the dog. A good chance of winning would be calculated odds of less than $2.50.

Good Luck with it.

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

I have been working on a high strike rate system which I am still testing using kennedys system.

So far this year it has thrown 33 bets and has had 24 winners(Strike rate of 72%) , 3 seconds and a third. It is still early days though.

The POT is approx 16%.

I'll let you know how it goes after a few more weeks testing.

Good Luck.

[Percentum]

A system I tried for a while but then found it hard to get the form guides for all of the meetings. It is very simple:

1. Qualifiers are taken for an all-up place bet.
2. Selection is any dog with 4 or more starts and is the only dog in the race with a 70% or better strike rate.

That's it.
It went ok for the short time I did it but I'm not really a dogs man or a big punter so I got sick of going to the greyhound and pet supply place to buy the form guides for the sake of a $10 all up bet. A lot of the time there was no qualifier at a meeting as well.

Looking at the divs on dog races I've tried backing all those paying $10 or more for the win with about 15 seconds to go. Usually there were 3 or 4 per race meaning a target return of about $40 per meeting. Look at the dividends on any given night and see how many $10+ dogs there are. The trouble is the huge fluctuations even with 15 seconds to go. I think it's got a bit of promise but only for the $1 punter and you have to ask yourself,'Is it healthy for me to be cooped up in a room by myself listening to the Gulargambone (etc) dogs for hours every evening?'

[AB51]

If you guys realy want to back some dog winners, the checkout www.insiderail.com (http://www.insiderail.com)

Its a "Free" Harness, Horse & Dog Racing site.

Good Luck

Anyone got any tips for tonight at Dapto ?

I'll be heading down for a bit of fun. The track looks like it will be wet.

So far I have the following :

Race 1 : Open affair. Hard to pick a dog and will porbbaly end up taking Box 6.
Race 2 : Easy race between Box 1 and 4. Leaning towards Box 1.
Race 3 : Easy race between Box 4 and 5. Leaning towards Box 4.
Race 4 : Open affair. Hard to pick and I will probably go with Box 6 or 1.
Race 5 : Fairly open but Box 7 and 1 should be the better dogs. Leaning towards Box 1.
Race 6 : Easy race between box 1 and 3. I will be taking Box 1.
Race 7 : Easy race . Only Number 3 is a contender.
Race 8 : Easy race between Boxes 1 and 3. I am leaning towards box 3.
Race 9 : Open affair. I will probably take Box 1 or Box 7.
Race 10 : Easy race. I will be taking Box 5.

Any thoughts on these selections ?

Good Luck.

[crash]

OK, I'm intrigued by Dapto dogs. [I drove past it once]. Just the name is a blow-out.

The brake and I used to be dog fanatics for about 10yrs. before they closed Olympic Park [Sandown was just too far from us] when we lived in Melb. We get down to Sale now and then [1hrs.drive] but that's about it for us.

Will be folowing the tips AB51 [with win bet $] for somthing to do as the the nags are a bit of a bore this time of year.

Hope we get some winners !!!

[woof43]

This is for Moee, badluck about the formatting, but it's a busy night, the last figure is Average Time behind winner converted to distance per grade, (lower is better) as I posted not too long ago, the other prices are first tier analysis (which means it doesn't have Box/Distance/Age/Spell adjustments), last 2 races compare grade 4 to grade 5 performances

Sandown Park

Race 2 Name LTD In Grade In Grade
1 GLENAVON NICK $6.68 $5.47 9.65
2 SISCO DI $12.10 $19.23 10.84
3 DARK RHYTHM $13.33 $20.83 5.21
4 LINTON'S TITLE $22.73 $15.71 10.00
5 GENTLEMAN CALLER $13.39 $18.75 10.31
6 CALL ME JAK $6.06 $5.33 4.05
7 FEEL THE FURY $3.45 $3.10 4.78
8 MICKY HUNTER $14.35 $21.58 8.75
9 ERA IN JUDGEMENT $29.70 $41.67 8.52
10 TONY'S EYE $63.83 $50.85 11.58


Race 3 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 MARTIN ALLEN $10.00 $10.27 8.56
2 ROCK COOL DADDY $12.50 $10.17 4.95
3 GOLD FEVER $33.71 $38.46 10.55
4 PHRENETIC $15.08 $11.19 5.68
5 TURBO UNO $4.13 $3.92 -0.02
6 MARBO KING $7.69 $16.85 6.23
7 ANOTHER WHISKY $5.23 $4.65 6.72
8 SLEEK PHYSIQUE $12.77 $10.95 5.42
9 BRINDLE TRENT $14.78 $18.63 5.97
10 BOOMA PETE $68.18 $68.18 7.47


Race 4 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 SIMPLY ON FIRE $4.64 $3.95 8.6
2 MAJESTIC FLEX $8.38 $12.88 6.1
3 JACK MITCHELL $9.01 $10.34 5.8
4 GUN STRIKER $16.67 $23.08 6.3
5 SUN ALERT $11.63 $18.63 8.5
6 JIGSAW JULIE $8.55 $5.07 3.7
7 EXTREMO $13.16 $9.40 4.7
8 WONGAWILLISUE $11.76 $6.80 5.6
9 ARVO'S BLITZ $8.11 $68.18 5.9
10 BEILHARZ SUNRISE $142.86 $100.00 7.0


Race 5 LTD In Grade In Grade 4 In Grade 5
1 LYGON STREET $3.84 $4.04 2.6 6.3
2 CODE OF PRACTICE $7.44 $5.43 19.9 5.1
3 TAMMY'S FOOL $8.80 $12.15 5.7 6.5
4 JIZE ALLEN $10.64 $9.93 3.8 7.0
5 VOLANDRI $11.24 $6.98 1.2 5.9
6 FREE LOADER $38.46 $45.45 9.6 6.5
7 DEVIL DEV $6.61 $12.00 5.2 8.2
8 SMURFS CANDIDATE $22.39 $14.29 7.9 9.7
9 BROTHER HARLEY $11.58 $14.93 6.1 4.8


Race 7 LTD In Grade In Grade 4 In Grade 5
1 CHEWY RUM***** $7.03 $8.22 7.6 7.8
2 MR TAB $7.13 $9.09 9.3 3.3
3 CAMZAMAN $8.33 $13.22 9.7 5.7
4 DETERMINATOR $15.87 $28.57 8.6 5.3
5 LEO BURING $25.86 $68.18 7.8 5.5
6 AMOS FLEX $13.51 $11.72 8.2 7.3
7 LEICA $5.91 $7.85 5.5 6.2
8 YOUTH WORKER $6.47 $5.99 6.5 6.9
9 BROTHER HARLEY $10.24 $3.80 6.1 4.8

I'll post the Grade/Class differences for Victorian tracks later tonight

[woof43]

The remaining races on the card,


Race 8 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 SISCO BUZZ $6.52 $11.15 7.3
2 EARTH QUAKE $4.74 $6.22 7.0
3 ALL THE MOVES $6.37 $8.20 5.2
4 DAYELEON PUZZLE $8.36 $4.08 8.0
5 MEPUNGA EAST $14.29 $14.22 4.7
6 SLAMM $26.55 $66.67 9.3
7 JIMELLA LAD $8.47 $11.86 6.6
8 FIRESIDE OSTI $11.11 $10.91 6.3
9 BROTHER HARLEY $23.08 8.26 4.8


Race 9 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 BULLSEYE BANDIT $4.72 $4.35 6.3
2 DYNAMO GYPSY $12.35 $17.70 7.1
3 OIZDON EXPRESS $7.71 $6.45 4.7
4 DYNA COMMANDER $4.05 $2.34 1.8
5 KURRANG KAIN $9.52 $18.69 3.5
6 FLYING VIRUS $17.34 $71.43 7.8
7 TANYA'S STAR $8.72 $43.48 6.7
8 COOPER ALLEN $24.19 $32.26 8.8
9 OUTER REACH $166.67 $111.11 9.7
10 AWESOME MOLLY $166.67 $666.67 7.4


Race10 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 WACOMA $4.39 $5.76 7.5
2 VICTORIAN $10.14 $6.90 4.8
3 TRAMOLINA $5.42 $3.39 5.5
4 LOONEY MISH $15.00 $13.33 6.1
5 SCORCHIN' $14.78 $20.83 11.3
6 NUGGETS BOY $8.17 $30.00 5.8
7 SPECIAL DIVA $11.03 $10.10 5.1
8 KAKADU ALLEN $12.00 $8.40 2.1
9 SAINT AMBER $250.00 $375.00 10.0
10 SUPER UNIT $18.52 $103.45 9.1


Race11 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 SOVEREIGNTY MAN $7.30 $7.44 7.4
2 MUSCAT $4.92 $4.55 5.8
3 DYNA SNOW $9.55 $9.26 8.3
4 JUDGE GALORE $12.24 $17.44 7.5
5 ALLEN KEITH $7.92 $6.05 4.3
6 PROVEN LUCKY $7.26 $8.70 8.5
7 ARVO'S JET $12.20 $10.27 7.7
8 MAMBO CREW $36.14 $37.97 9.0
9 SMOKY'S JUNIOR $20.98 $23.08 9.0
10 VINTAGE MOON $19.23 $30.00 7.8

[moeee]

Only just found your post Woofer.
Thank you for doing it.
I am just going through it but aren't understanding why you have 2 dividends beside each dog.
Could you explain please?

[woof43]

Only just found your post Woofer.
Thank you for doing it.
I am just going through it but aren't understanding why you have 2 dividends beside each dog.
Could you explain please?

Hi Moe,
The first estimated payoff is based on using each dogs Life To Date raw time data, without any adjustments.
The second estimated payoff is based on using Lenghts beaten In Todays Grade LTD without any adjustments.

The third figure is using Lenghts beaten IN Todays Grade LTD.
The 3rd figure is compiled without using any Class/Grade adjustments from track to track, plus it is Life to date.

The purpose was to show Lenghts beaten In Grade is a very good indicator of Class, with some slight adjustments such as knowing the Class difference from track to track, deducting win margin from Lenghts beaten total, box position adjustments and using only say the last 6 starts (providing there is no breaks of more then 21 an over days between starts)its quite easy to handicap a race with only a formguide and pencil.

[moeee]

I am the first to admit that my posted assessment of the market is the worst that I've ever seen posted.
It should be impossible to lose more than 17%,because that is the take out.
Yet I continue to perform at a ridiculous Loss on turnover.
And the reason this is happening is because the factors I am looking at,are not the reasons why dogs do or do not win.
They should be,but they are not.

And can I say Woofer,without trying to bag your ideas,because they also appear sound,you also are looking in the wrong place.
Although it may very well have been a bad night to release your theory or perhaps there is really a phantom curse about.

I do understand that your market did not allow for the box draw and a number of important factors.
And I did not in fact do the maths of actually working out your returns that would result in backing the overs at your posted prices.
It would be criminal of me to expect a profit on turnover,but I would expect your overlay prices to have returned better than a 17% loss.

And again,I didn't do the maths,but considering that not a single winner started at over your posted prices,I may be over hastily condemning your efforts.

Please appreciate that I do appreciate your effort and am not condemning you or your mode of assessment.
Could you please,if you did in fact have a bet or two on the meeting,notify if you actually had a winning or losing night.

Thanks Woofer.

[moeee]

Can I say that I have been mentally playing around with a Greyhounds win/loss record.
And the win/loss record at the track over the distance.
And not actually applying any particular mathematical formula, I have noticed a substantial decrease in my monetary losses.

Am going to try and put these statistics into some sort of market framing exercise and see how it turns out.

I really do expect to post my markets and still fall flat on my face,AGAIN, but I will endeavour to reach inspirational heights.

[wesmip1]

moeee,

I have a quick system worth following if you are interested. I don't follow it as I know it loses in the long run but it does work short term. I have given it to a number of people who use it everytime they go for a quick drink and bet at the pub.

It takes a whole 2 secs to work out who to bet on and will win enough of the time to pay for your drinks.

The rules are :
1. Find any dog race.
2. Look at boxes 3,4,5,6
3. Bet on any under $5. (place or win up to you)

Here are some results from today.

Results for tonight at Warragul :
1. Box 5 (2nd)
2. Box 4 and 5 ( NP and 1st $4.70 )
3. No Bet
4. Box 4 (NP)
5. No Bet
6. Box 5 (NP)
7. No Bet
8. Box 4 (1st $3.10)
9. Box 4 and Box 6 ( 1st $4.20 and NP)

8 selections for 3 winners ($12). POT is 50%.

The theory is that the inside boxes (3,4,5,6) ALWAYS have better value then the outside boxes. The price of < $5 shows this dog has a chance. You won't win them all but you will win enough to pay for your drinks ...

If I was at the pub tonight that would have easily covered my drinks ( outlay of $40 for a return of $60 ).
Good Luck.

[moeee]

Can I tell you the trouble is the fluctuating price can p i s s you off because they change dramatically in the last minute and a half.
They shorten ,they ease.
Very frustrating.

[woof43]

And can I say Woofer,without trying to bag your ideas,because they also appear sound,you also are looking in the wrong place.
Although it may very well have been a bad night to release your theory or perhaps there is really a phantom curse about.

I do understand that your market did not allow for the box draw and a number of important factors.
And I did not in fact do the maths of actually working out your returns that would result in backing the overs at your posted prices.
It would be criminal of me to expect a profit on turnover,but I would expect your overlay prices to have returned better than a 17% loss.

And again,I didn't do the maths,but considering that not a single winner started at over your posted prices,I may be over hastily condemning your efforts.

Please appreciate that I do appreciate your effort and am not condemning you or your mode of assessment.
Could you please,if you did in fact have a bet or two on the meeting,notify if you actually had a winning or losing night.

Thanks Woofer.

Hi Moee,
The reason for my posting was to show just using Lengths beaten could give you a great insight into each race without the need to convert times etc an just using a formguide, I maybe should not have posted the estimated payoffs as each was based on Life to Date, this was to provide you with a measuring point, but that aside an just looking at the avg distance beaten IN grade here is my wrap up on each winner for the meeting.

Race 2 #6 Ranked 1st IN Grade
Race 3 #7 Ranked 2nd IN Grade (further investigation reveals this dog had a spell of 119 days, prior to the spell its avg time was 30.562 after spell its avg is 30.266 by far best dog in race)
Race 4 #3 Ranked 4th IN Grade, ranked 2nd best in 4th Grade
(this dog had substanially improved in 12 starts since a 35 day spell )
Race 5 #2 Had only 1 run In Grade(where it finished 19 lens from winner badly checked),was Ranked 1st in 5th grade
Race 7 #8 Ranked 2nd In Grade
Race 8 #7 Ranked 3rd In Grade and ranked 2nd in 4th Grade
Race 9 #7 Ranked 3rd IN Grade and ranked 1st in FFA
Race 10 #2 Ranked 2nd IN Grade
Race 11 #7 Ranked 7th IN Grade and ranked 1st in 4th grade

Hope the above helps somewhat...

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

If you watch enough dog races you will realise that the prices only flucuate widely with the smaller pool races. With 2 mins to go and a pool of over $2K you don't usually see as much flucuation. You can also check all 3 prices across the totes are similar.

Good luck with it.

[wesmip1]

moeee,

I have a quick system worth following if you are interested. I don't follow it as I know it loses in the long run but it does work short term. I have given it to a number of people who use it everytime they go for a quick drink and bet at the pub.

It takes a whole 2 secs to work out who to bet on and will win enough of the time to pay for your drinks.

The rules are :
1. Find any dog race.
2. Look at boxes 3,4,5,6
3. Bet on any under $5. (place or win up to you)

Here are some results from today.

Results for tonight at Warragul :
1. Box 5 (2nd)
2. Box 4 and 5 ( NP and 1st $4.70 )
3. No Bet
4. Box 4 (NP)
5. No Bet
6. Box 5 (NP)
7. No Bet
8. Box 4 (1st $3.10)
9. Box 4 and Box 6 ( 1st $4.20 and NP)

8 selections for 3 winners ($12). POT is 50%.

The theory is that the inside boxes (3,4,5,6) ALWAYS have better value then the outside boxes. The price of < $5 shows this dog has a chance. You won't win them all but you will win enough to pay for your drinks ...

If I was at the pub tonight that would have easily covered my drinks ( outlay of $40 for a return of $60 ).
Good Luck.

Again looking at todays races so far :

Total 18 selections for 8 winners and a return of $24.70.

Good Luck.

[moeee]

Okay!
Here we go.
Sale Greyhounds tonight.
What I'm doing and why!

Race 1.
Not enough form revealed to be able to assess.

Race 2.
See comment re-Race 1.

Race 3.
Late start to betting activities tonight it seems.

Race 4.
There just seems to be too many crap greyhounds in existance!

Race 5.
1st leg of the quaddie!
Blue seems to be best of the inner boxes.Green got the time.
So first leg of the quaddie is 4 and 6.

Race 6.
Only 2 chances of winning.The 2 and the 4.

Race 7.
8,5,1,2,3
I think the top 2 for 1st with the red for second and the lot for 3rd in a trifecta.
Sets back about $6 for a half unit.

Race 8.
Bobby got 2 in this race.Could almost take home the quinella.
Bung in the pink gives a box Trifecta of 5,7 and 8.That's $3 for a full unit.
Plus a Box Quinella for $1 makes a total of 6 bucks.

Race 9.
2 starts , 2 wins ,Good time. Surely bet of the night.
6 to beat 2,1,7,8 for a half unit TRI.Cost = $6.

Race 10.
Okay,let's try an Exacta. 7 and 5 to beat 7,5,4,1,3 costs $4 for 50 cents.

Race 11.
Getting late.A running Double with 3 and 8 into 1,2,5,6
Again for 50 cents is another $4.

QUADDIE 4,6/2,4/5,8/5,7,8 for half a unit costs $12
Daily Double 2 and 4 into 5,7 and 8.Full unit costs $6.

Grand Total of $44.

[moeee]

POST MORTEM

Race 5.
Ordinary race to assess.Only went there because it was the 1st leg of the Quaddie.
Found 2 dogs but a scratching left with only number 4.
Starting at about even money,it got checked badly out at the start.And with it came the Dejavu feeling that no matter what I do,I am destined to be shown as the most pathetic tipster of all time.

Race 6.
Another poor race to assess.1st leg daily double and 2nd of the Quaddie.
Of the selections Find the winner at about Evens and the other runs unplaced.

Race 7.
Yellow was scratched leaving the pink on top.
Got knocked around a bit in the race.The other 3 mentioned were in the quinella.

Race 8.
3 tips here,bags the tiny quinella dividend and also the $8 daily double.
At least the selections are finishing closer to predicted than the earlier events.
Suppose it just goes to show when you have more interpretable data,you have a better show of coming up with the right answers.

Race 9.
Bet of the night turns up here and looks like a good result.
Then gets collared right on the line and our Trifecta gets away.
Financially,the night is becoming a nightmare,but the races are living up close to expectations.
Bit like Greg Chappell that time he did 3 ducks in a row."I'm playing well,I just keep getting out!".

Race 10.
Hallelujah!
$90 return for the Exacta!
The odds-on favourite,number 8, never ran a drum.
How I never included it in my selections,I can't recall.
Could I have mistakenly read my tips as a 3 instead of an 8?.And snagged a huge Exacta by mistake?
Whatever,I ain't giving it back!

Race 11 and 12.
Selections include both winners ,but only a tiny dividend returned for the running double.

SUMMARY.
Big profit on turnover could have been a loss.
Regardless of that,the main thing is that many selections finished towards the front of the field.
Will now do form study after checking for scratchings.

[woof43]

In a previous post I said i'd post the Class differences for the most popular tracks an distances, now how do you get any meaningful use out of these Tables.
Grab your formguide, looking at each dogs formlines match the track an distance to the Class Table, record that figure , then look at the margin beaten ( multiply the margin beaten by .066 , i know this isn't the best method but it suffices) now add that figure to the Class Table figure, if the dog won the event multiply the winning margin by .066 and subtract this from the Class Table figure.
Do that for all 5 or 6 Formlines then you will have a general idea of its Class, points to take note are if the dog has had a spell or short break between runs its better to use the most recent runs in this case, a further refinement is to use avg of the best two runs from the last 5 or 6 formlines

Cheers hope this helps you moee in your search ..
Albion Park520 -0.01
Albion Park600 0.08
Angle Park515 0.27
Ballarat450 0.22
Ballarat550 0.20
Bendigo430 0.22
Bendigo545 0.20
Canberra530 0.10
Cannington530 0.09
Cranbourne311 0.25
Cranbourne520 0.21
Dapto508 0.12
Devonport452 0.21
Geelong347 0.21
Geelong457 0.13
Geelong600 0.25
Gold Coast457 0.46
Healesville340 0.35
Hobart457 0.35
Horsham336 0.38
Horsham480 0.23
Launceston515 0.31
Mandurah530 0.19
Mount Gambier512 0.82
Nowra520 0.08
Richmond535 0.16
Sale440 0.19
Sale520 0.20
Sandown Park515 0.00
Sandown Park715 -0.27
South Coast472 0.14
The Meadows525 0.04
The Meadows600 -0.01
Traralgon298 0.22
Traralgon513 0.18
Tweed Heads420 0.52
Wangaratta403 0.46
Wangaratta474 0.22
Warragul424 0.15
Warrnambool332 0.26
Warrnambool450 0.20
Wentworth Park520 -0.02
sorry for the formatting again..