Laying no.1

[michaelg]

Back again with the topweight. Since last Saturday (31/12/05) I have been looking at no.1 where there are no symbols/legends against its name. So, it has not won at the distance, track, not a last start beaten fave, etc. I have restricted those that are under $4 in the pre-post market and have omitted Maiden and 2 year-old races.

The results are:
18 selections for 3 winners totalling $9.30 with the NSW TAB. 18 samples are unrealistic to even think of drawing any conclusions. Today there have been two selections that have been beaten. Today's selections if anyone is interested are:

Randwick R3 - Frozen (beaten)
Randwick R8 - Snowden
Sandown R3 - Lucky Diva (beaten)
Morphetville R8 - Road Worker
Newcastle R4 - Federal Reserve
Mudgee R4 - The Lady Hussey (ridden by G Ryan, not a good sign)
Mudgee R7 - Offshore Account (again, ridden by G Ryan)

[DR RON]

Mudgee race 4 The Lady Hussey , just beaten at about $ 1.50 which was good because I was on the thing that beat it @ $ 21.90

[michaelg]

Hi, Dr Ron. Glad you backed it.

I was going to back around the selections but for some silly reason decided not to have a bet. I would've cleaned up because I would also have had the winner at Mudgee R7 which paid $42. Hope you backed it.

Only one winner of $1.70 from the seven lay selections, and I understand it almost got beaten. Not a bad start to the system.

[DR RON]

I was up 30 units for the day after Mudgee race 4 so I called it quits. I would not have backed the race 7 winner as it wouldn't be a qualifyer for me, a long with a few other losing bets so stopping when I did turned out to be a smart move. I am not normally known for that.

[michaelg]

One lay today:

Nowra R1 no1 - Pride Of Pins ($3.00)

[michaelg]

Yesterday's lay was beaten - a good result.

Two for today:
Cessnock R4 - Parity ($2.20)
Cessnock R7 - In The Attic (2.50)

[DR RON]

Parity out of a place, started 5.90 on unitab

[TWOBETS]

I like this one!

I suppose all you people with databases will shoot this down and I sure don't know about long term viability, but this makes a lot of sense to me. Good on ya Michaelg.

[michaelg]

Hi, Dr Ron.That was a surprisingly disappointing price because not only was it $2.20 pre-post but the third fave of $4.50 was scratched, so it could have easily been expected to start even shorter than the $2.20. It only takes one of these to win to cause damage to the system. I don't know what it was showing here on the NSW Tab. Interestingly, the other selection, In The Attic started at $2.60 on Unitab yet on NSW it was either $1.80 or $1.70 - I can't remember which.

Twobets, so far so good. Since posting here on Saturday there have been 10 selections for only one winner of $1.70. I read in the latest edition of probably the most well known punting magazine (I don't know if I'm allowed to name it so I won't) where a punter sent them some stats on TAB no.1. According to this, when no.1 starts fave, the win strike rate is 52% and the average dividend is $2.60. This is a big worry for my laying of no.1 as according to the pre-post it is the fave. Time will tell... I have also been testing the system with non-no.1. The results have not been as good, but they are promising:- since 01/01/06 there have been 24 selections for 6 winners totalling $14.70. I'll list the selections here also and see how they go. I'll call it the non-topweight system

No1 System
Victoria Park R6 - Imperial Faberge ($2.80)

Non-topweight System
Sandown R2 no.6 - Jugahs Star ($3.50)
Victoria Park R3 no.3 - Slinky Nandina ($3.50)
Victoria Park R5 no.3 - Barker Lad ($3.50)
Devenport R1 no.2 - Esterel ($3.00)
Devenport R10 no.4 - Smarty Benison ($2.80)

[KennyVictor]

I read in the latest edition of probably the most well known punting magazine (I don't know if I'm allowed to name it so I won't) where a punter sent them some stats on TAB no.1. According to this, when no.1 starts fave, the win strike rate is 52% and the average dividend is $2.60. How many races was this over? If it's a substantial number and these results are accurate who needs any other system?

KV

[DR RON]

I think it may have been over 1000 from memory, but my memory aint that great. I'm sure someone on the forum could produce some up to date figures for us? :)

[lomaca]

I think it may have been over 1000 from memory, but my memory aint that great. I'm sure someone on the forum could produce some up to date figures for us? :)
Just my opinion of course, but unless some very special conditions were attached to that claim, it is just impossible to be true, given the vast number of people who look ONLY at statistics, they would have found this angle and exploited it accordingly, thus ruining the odds.
52% strike rate at $2.60????? just by following No. 1 when fav?? No way.
Good luck to anyone who runs it through a database, I wouldn't bother.
If proven wrong, I will stand corrected and ready to eat humble pie!

[michaelg]

The person who supplied the stats to the magazine was in response to the columnist previously stating that quite a few systems are based on the TAB No.1. The person in this latest issue has informed the columnist "I did a little analysis on the breakdown of the order of favouritism from my results. It may or may not be of assistance but when the favourite is No.1 it is worth a look." He then gave a breakdown of the stats when No.1 is fave which has produced a strike rate of 52% for an average divvy of $2.60. When No.1 is the second-fave, it produced a strike rate of 18.8% for an average divvy of $4.21. He also provides stats when No.1 is third-fave, fourth, fifth and other, but these are big losers. He then continues: "In my overall picture No.1 accounts for 26% of all favourites and 8% of all winners".

I suppose the interesting point is when he says "a little analysis" - how many races is a "little analysis"? Unfortunately he does not provide any further clues to this nor does he say if they are TAB divvies. He has not identified himself as he asked the magazine that he remain anonymous.

[La Mer]

Just my opinion of course, but unless some very special conditions were attached to that claim, it is just impossible to be true, given the vast number of people who look ONLY at statistics, they would have found this angle and exploited it accordingly, thus ruining the odds.
52% strike rate at $2.60????? just by following No. 1 when fav?? No way.
Good luck to anyone who runs it through a database, I wouldn't bother.
If proven wrong, I will stand corrected and ready to eat humble pie!

Don't think you'll be proven wrong Iomaca. I ran this through my database for all of 2005, just for the Saturday metro meetings and while the strike-rate was Ok @ 33.7% from over 500 selections, the loss amounted to 15.8% LOT with an average price of $2.50.

[DR RON]

Another potential Holy Grail up in smoke :(

[La Mer]

Another potential Holy Grail up in smoke :(

The problem is with the wording of the article, or more the case of how its been interpreted – the stats ONLY relate to the correspondents results and not results overall.

[DR RON]

No1 System
Victoria Park R6 - Imperial Faberge ($2.80)




Another fave goes down the gurgler, didn't even run a place at $ 2.10

La Mer, probably one days racing, he found something out of the ordinary and thought he'd get his 15 minutes of fame. :)

[kenchar]

I haven't got any actual stats to back this up, but after a few years now watching odds every day, something which has caught my eye is that if the top weight is the fav then you are better off backing the 2nd fav, better odds and they salute it seems to me, more than the fav does.

[lomaca]

I haven't got any actual stats to back this up, but after a few years now watching odds every day, something which has caught my eye is that if the top weight is the fav then you are better off backing the 2nd fav, better odds and they salute it seems to me, more than the fav does.

Kenchar!
How did you find out my secret?
Even in my own rating I bet only the second selection, pays a lot better at a slightly less strikerate.
I still can't master the art of following two or more TABs like you do, keep missing the jump.
Cheers

[kenchar]

2 tabs is easy, try 2 tabs and 2 bookie sites one to the other in the last minute before the jump, my right forefinger has got muscles on it.
Just curious have you got any actual stats on the scenario I outlined.

Cheers

[lomaca]

2 tabs is easy, try 2 tabs and 2 bookie sites one to the other in the last minute before the jump, my right forefinger has got muscles on it.
Just curious have you got any actual stats on the scenario I outlined.

Cheers
Hi!
I can check the results of first fav. versus second or third according to the Supertab divi. for place and win one minute before the jump (or ten min, or jumptime) for you to see what is the difference.
But if you bet on all races there is no point because as you know, you would lose, unless you have some selection process going.

On my own rating, betting second selections, on all tracks, all races all conditions, I would be down 1 to 2 % on outlay. I have worked out what tracks and classes "MY" rating works on, and I am doing quite well.
As to why it works on about 60% of tracks and not on others? I have no idea and given up trying to find a reason for it! Incidentally I do not take track conditions or barriers into account at all, seems to make no difference to strikerate or profit. Maybe other factors in my rating are overwhelming these?

Let me know if you want me to run the fav v. sec. for you. I can do it on the weekend.
Good luck.

[kenchar]

Iomaca,

That would be really appreciated.
Just to be clear.

1/ If the fav is No1 at the 1 minute mark then we back the 2nd fav.

It will be interesting to see what comes of it, I know it will probably show a loss on turnover, but these things can be turned around depending on how you bet.

I won't repeat the stats on what I have been doing for the past 14 days ( all winning days) but they are mindblowing compared to S/R and POT I see posted on forums and people are more than happy with theirs.

As I said in another thread it doesn't matter HOW you achieve your profit as long as it is achieved.

I really appreciate you doing this, with a bit of luck it might benefit members of the forum.

All the best,

KC

[Duritz]

On the "stats" that "guy" "sent in" from his "little bit of analysis" which just happened to prove really really handy for the writer of the article? The author will have "made them up", all by "himself", because, well, that "magazine" is a joke and do it all the time.

[KennyVictor]

As to why it works on about 60% of tracks and not on others? I have no idea and given up trying to find a reason for it! Incidentally I do not take track conditions or barriers into account at all, seems to make no difference to strikerate or profit. Interesting, I had a set of ratings that were very similar. Used to work on some tracks and particularly in some months. I had the ratings going back about 10 years and just used to bet on meetings where there was a minimum of 6% Profit for that track for that month over the previous 10 years results. Track conditions made a difference but barrier was pretty much inconsequential (generally better barrier slightly higher strike rate but lower POT).

KV

[beton]

Hi
On this track discussion, I was on a UK forum site last year and the discussion referred to barrier draws. Each track and distance had a barrier draw bias. Some had inner barriers with a marked bias, others the middle or the outer. Such was the bias some trainers withdraw if they get a bad draw. They even posted the list with the degree of bias. The very next post highlighted the factor of slipstreaming and the effects prevailing winds and the position of the horse especially coming into the finish. All out of my league but may explain why there are differences in tracks.
Regards Beton

[Bhagwan]

I ran the No.1 idea through my data base some time ago over 10,000 races & the SR was approx 30% at very short prices.

The 1st race of the day of any track 7 days a week had the strongest SR for some reason 36%SR. It showed a small loss of approx -10%

Fav was based on SP .

So I feel it would be a strong idea to leave race one out all together if looking at laying Favs based on those stats.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to add that those figures were based on all No.1 with no filters added.

[michaelg]

Yesterday none of the selections in either system won - a good day.

Two selections today for the No.1 system:
Cranbourne R5 - Holmesa ($3.50)
Townsville R3 - Estelito ($2.50).

Non-topweight system
Penola R5 no.2 - Deva Rock ($2.50)
Penola R7 no.4 - Fava ($3.50)

[Pugnosis]

Have been a silent observer of this discussion as I have been laying no.1 favourites for a while yet have been using a progression staking system so can get a bit nerve racking. Wasn't Estelito in a maiden and therefore ineligible for your system michaelg?

[michaelg]

Hi, Pugnosis. Yes, you're right, it should not have been a selection. I've got to be more careful. I hope you're winning with your laying system.

My very limited records of the system indicates there could be a bias with No.1 when fave. It seems to be overbet which means the other runners could represent value. I am only basing this on betting around No.1. Since last Sat by dutch-betting every other horse using the pre-post prices in the Telegraph has produced a 26% POT with the NSW TAB. But this is from only 12 races. Yet compered with Non-Topweight System, the POT after 17 races is only 10%. However, it is much too early to draw conclusions about any bias. Pugnosis, maybe you might have noticed something similar, or maybe my observation is just a temporary aberration?

Two selections today:
Canberra R2 no.1 - My Honour ($2.50)
Port Mac R2 no.1 - Gallery Hawk ($2.70)

Two selections for the Non-Topweight System:
Moonee Valley R5 no.6 - Road To Athens ($3.50)
Warrnambool R1 no.5 - Super Gino ($3.00)

[Pugnosis]

The price for My Honor was a bit much however never looked like winning. Gallery Hawk losing at $2.20 on betfair was a great result. The system going by Herald Sun form also throws up Rockhampton R6 No.1 Mersey Beat currently about $1.90 on betfair.

[Pugnosis]

Well that was one of the easiest wins you will see in a while. Laid it at $1.88 and my money was gone as soon as it got its easy lead. A mate of mine always has a theory that if a horse is leading and the jockey looks behind then it is home. Reckons he has never seen a horse lose when the jockey does this. Mersey Beat's jockey looked around about 400m out!

[michaelg]

Hi, Pugnosis. The reason I omitted Mersy Beat from the system was because it was not the pre-post fave. Maybe according to its form it should not have started fave, maybe only its trainer/owner knew something the market didn't and plunged on it bringing it in to favouritism???

Hope you won on the day.

[michaelg]

Over the past seven days there has been 14 selections for 13 successes, the only loser paying $1.70. The previous 18 selections had 3 winners paying a total of $9.30 so I think we're currently going through a purple patch - it can't last.

Two selections today:
Kembla R4 - Warring ($2.80)
Werribee R8 - Spinney ($3.00)

Non-Topweight System. Five selections:
Vic Park R3 no.4 - Exalted Time ($3.20)
Vic Park R8 no.3 - Intoxicating Ring ($3.50)
Wagga R7 no.2 - Bronze Aussie ($2.20)
Werribee R7 no.2 - Octrivia ($2.80)
Ipswich R2 no.2 - Charlie Gun ($3.20)

[michaelg]

From the two selections of the No.1 system there was one winner paying $2.00. And from the non-topweight system there was also one winner of $2.80 from the five selections.

Today's selections for the No.1 System are:
Kyneton R8 - Dark Lord ($2.80)
Strathalbyn R2 - Gerinejay Lad ($2.35)

Also two selections for the non-topweight system.
Kyneton R1 no.4 - Beach Dance ($1.70)
Warranambool R8 no.2 - Count Lago ($3.20)

[michaelg]

Not a good day yesterday. One winner of $3.00 from the two selections. And with the non-topweight system there was also one winner of $1.60 from the two selections.

Two selections today:
Wellington R8 - Crafty Poet ($2.10)
Wellington R9 - Chief Resident ($3.20)

No selections for the non-topweight system.

[michaelg]

Yesterday both selections were beaten.

One selection today:
Echuca R9 - Norhave ($3.00)

No selections for the non-topweight system.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selection won, paying $2.00 - a losing day.

One selection today:
Mt Barker R7 - Royalistic ($3.00)

Non-Topweight System. Six selections:
Cranbourne R7 no.3 - Mahr ($2.50)
Mt Barker R3 no.2 - Moondance Magic ($4.00)
Gawler R1 no.2 - Cazza's Lottery ($2.50)
Gawler R4 no.2 - Tresillian ($2.20)
Ipswich R4 no.4 - Framboise ($3.00)
Ipswich R8 no.4 - Ming Gold ($3.50).

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday. Class 1 races have been the culprit, maybe because they are only one step away from Maidens.

Omitting Class 1 races, the results from 01/01/06 have been:
33 selections for 5 winners totalling $11.90. Not bad. It would appear that if the fave in Class 2 or higher races has not won at the distance, track, etc, it may not be a good bet particulary if it is under $4 pre-post. So from today I'll exclude Class 1 races and not differentiate the topweight from the other TAB numbers, and hope...

Two selections today:
Pinjarra R7 no.2 - Sir Chalmers ($3.50)
Pinjarra R8 no.1 - Silver Ambush ($3.50)

[michaelg]

One winner of $2.10 from yesterday's two selections - not a good day.

Six selections today:
Queanbeyan R6 no.6 - Private Dan ($3.50)
Gunnedah R6 no.2 - Catfight ($2.80)
Gunnedah R7 no.3 - Top Beat ($2.80)
Flemington R2 no.3 - Pompeii Ruler ($3.00)
Flemington R6 no.2 - Point Of Call ($3.00)
Benalla R7 no.2 - Skintight ($3.20)

[michaelg]

From yesterday's six selections there was one winner paying $1.70.

Two selections today:
Newcastle R7 no.6 - Yolo ($2.70)
Stony Creek R4 no.1 - Jetera ($3.50)

[michaelg]

The sole selection won paying $2.10. However I omitted to list Sandown R8 no.5 as a selection - it won paying 4.90. I'm now going to have to re-think the system, or even dump it.

[lomaca]

Iomaca,

Just to be clear.

1/ If the fav is No1 at the 1 minute mark then we back the 2nd fav.

It will be interesting to see what comes of it, I know it will probably show a loss on turnover, but these things can be turned around depending on how you bet.


KC
Hi Kenchar!
Sorry for the delay but my time is limited by family and work.
I ran your idea trough the database from Mar. 99 to Jan. 2006.
Had no time to analyse but some months the second fav or third fav were returning a profit when Tab No. 1 was the fav.
The results are in four, comma delimited text files per year, easy to import into Excel or database, but only basic info included like venue, race number, date, fav win and place divi, cumulative return on sec and third fav when No 1 was the fav. If you want me to look at other things when No. 1 is the fav let me know, or if you are happy to just look at what I have at present, give me an email address, the file is about 4MB can't upload here.
Cheers Louis

[kenchar]

Iomaca,

Thanks for that, basically what I am trying to work out is in the win thing I have been trying for a month I have noticed when the fav is topweight the second fav seems to salute quite often, and seeing as I am only chasing my 1 unit a day it just might be worth backing the 2 of them, the fav as a saver and the 2nd for the profit.
Email is kenchar69au at yahoo dot com dot au.
Much appreciated.
Cheers. KC.