Maiden favorite system [revisited?]

[crash]

We have been here before I think, but I have been having a good look at maiden results at Sat. Metro [anyway]. Rarely do you get past the first 3 maiden races without a favorite saluting. A good track is important.

Lets scrub a system together that takes advantage of that. This is just an initial 'throw it in the ring' stuff, but it's a start and anyone is welcome to come up with a fine tune based on solid stats.

Good track only.
1] Win bet 1 unit 1st. Maiden race at all major Sat. metro. meetings on the fav.
2] If a winner stop betting that track.
3] If a loser [this is very loose here], 1 and a 1/2 units next Maiden race on the fav. and stop if a winner.
4] If a loser 2 units next Maiden race Fav. Stop if a winner or a loser for that track.
Same system all tracks.

Haven't yet looked at country and/or during the week.

All input welcome.

[kenchar]

Input given,

Look at midweeks, which I have been saying for years now, more favs win than metro but I have always been howled down and been told we MUST bet the Quality and class races.

A $2.5 winner at the black stump is the SAME as a $2.5 at Randwick, the only difference is that the $2.5 at the black stump salutes more often than the $2.5 at at Randwick.

Glad to see that that you have come around.

Here's some stats for you 50%+ strike rate 50%+ POT and I AM ACHIEVING THAT AT THE MOMENT.

Believe me or not I don't care.

I forgot that IS FLAT STAKES ONLY.

[feather]

Well Kenchar, I believe you,

[Sportz]

Ummm, Crash, can I ask WHAT Saturday metro maidens???

Or are you talking about 2yo races?

[crash]

Thanks for the input Kenchar. How's it going Feather? Turned a profit in the comp. I see. Well done mate.

Sportz, no I don't mean 2yr. old races, I mean Maidens. All those meetings beside the big three on Sat. Lots of them but yes bit of a mistake there, I meant non-metro races, not metro. The first 3 or 4 races mostly.
Something to do while waiting for the late afternoon 2nd. half of the card too get going at the main Sat. [metro] meetings. That's useually my situation anyway.

Yes, I believe you too Kenchar. I hadn't looked at other days beside Sat. yet. So how are you betting these Maiden race Fav. besides flat stakes bets to account for 50% SR and 50%+ POT? A lot of them only pay around $1.50 or so.

Are you stopping after a winner, or do you mean backing all the maiden races flat stakes 7 days a week on the favorite or excluding Sat.? Do you take track condt. into account or bet any condt.?

I thought a 3 or 4 race staking progression would be needed for this. Obviously I'm wrong there then.

Cheers, Crash

[Sportz]

I thought that's what you must have meant. Saturday metro maidens are almost completely non-existant these days.

[crash]

Morning Sportz,
Another early riser or do you have to work mate:-) ?

[kenchar]

Morning Crash,

As always stopping when ahead, and I guess that is why the strike rate and POT are so high.
Not a true picture I know, but hey if it holds up, who cares whether one bets 20 races a day or 1 a day.

Cheers.

[crash]

Hi Kenchar,

Well it sounds good whatever your doing. Re my earlier questions: 'all the maiden races flat stakes 7 days a week on the favorite or excluding Sat.? Do you take track condt. into account or bet any condt.? A bit of info here might help to target the right days and condt. etc.

Thanks, Crash

[kenchar]

Not taking track conditions into account, I'm really trying to K I S S with this one.

[crash]

OK thanks Kenchar.

Keeping it simple [KISS] or 'as it happens' on any day of the week I guess, is a good way to use the rules too. My problem is I only have Saturdays that I know I can set aside any time to place a bet just before the jump, so I personally anyway am looking at this system for Sat. only use.

Might be OK to extend to 4 races if there are that many maidens with a 2 and a 1/2 unit final bet. I have no idea of the average Fav. win price for Sat. Maiden races [or weekly either], to work out the best progression to apply. Any help there would be appreciated from someone with the data to work that out over 12mths. [or longer].

My suggestion for staking progression is only that. A reasonable starting point perhaps, which can be altered to suit the individual punters style.

[KennyVictor]

Here's a bit of database info to give you heart.


Backing the SP favorite in all NSW races and putting the bet on the NSW TAB you would get 89.8% of your money back with a strike rate of 33.3% (over 44000 races all days all courses).
Backing the SP favorite in all NSW maiden races and putting the bet on the NSW TAB you would get 93.6% of your money back with a strike rate of 35.6% (over 11650 races all days all courses).
Backing the SP favorite in all NSW non-maiden races and putting the bet on the NSW TAB you would get 88.4% of your money back with a strike rate of 32.5% (over 32400 races all days all courses).
Not a money making prospect in itself but it proves the maiden favorites do better than favorites overall.

Why choose by SP and report by NSW Tab? I already had a program written which almost did the job and only took me 5 minutes to put the maiden clause in. Laziness.

KV

[joelance]

Sometimes you wont know which horse is the favourite until after they jump

[crash]

Thanks Kenny,

Very useful info. with a bit of filtering and stopping when striking a winner using a moderate progression for staking only to 3 or 4 races, a good improvement on SR could be achieved. How good would be idle speculation.

I have looked at quite a few Sat. only results and see that sticking to 'good' condt. has a better hit rate than other condt. Mainly due to the fact it's almost impossible to know in advance how most of the runners will go in other condt. beside good. Useually we are talking fair quality horses [young] in Sat. maiden races. More SR improvements could be anticipated here also.

It would be hard to get your fingers burnt with this and it might make a bit of dough too. Something for me anyway for Sat. to play with. I'm not trying to set it up as a main betting proposition. For those who have the time and interest to do that, I'm sure [as Kenchar points out] it can be done.

Cheers, Crash

[kenchar]

Crash,

Just as a point of interest, using two tabs and two books to get best available odds my average divi at this stage $2.93.

[jfc]

ROT for runners <=2/1 SP (Fractional Odds) in Maidens 1998 - last July

98.5% Sunday
93.9% Monday
94.2% Tuesday
100.1% Wednesday
95.6% Thursday
99.3% Friday
88.7% Saturday

[crash]

Hi JFC,

Well according to your figures Sat. seems to be the poor boy here. Still, maybe with a 3/4 race only progression [normally I swear progressions are hopeless for most betting] and stopping at a winner, I might be able to improve on those figures substantially. I'll give it a run anyway. No big danger.

Thanks for those figures JFC. Very informative.

[crash]

Results for today where:

Vic. Park [good] R1 Fav. $1.50. O/Lay 1unit. Return 1.5units
Canterbury [good] R3 Fav. $2.50. O/lay 4.5units. Return 5units
Sandown [slow] R3 Fav. $1.80. O/lay 4.5units. Return 3.6units
G/coast [heavy] R1 Fav. $3.90 [big field] O/lay 1unit. Return 3.9units

Only loss was Sandown: 0.9 of a unit loss.
Total outlay 11units. Return 14units. 3unit profit. a reasonable POT if backing all these tracks.

A 4 race progression would be a bad move considering expected payout range. 3 races max.
Naturaly, better odds could be obtained that those above and would probably add a unit or two to profit.

[jfc]

Examining the Saturday Maiden runners <=2/1 more closely where Tab Limited operates:

96.5% Newcastle/Kembla
99.6% Gold Coast/Toowoomba
100+% Victoria (small sample)

So it looks like the Saturday Maidens you can actually bet on are fine for favourites.

[Bhagwan]

My data base tells me that the 1st 3 races for Maidens SP Favs produced the highest SR ,for some reason, maybe because the field sizes are usually smaller than the other race Nos.

So if one is chasing Favs in Maiden events , its probable a strong idea to target the 1st 3 racers only of any meeting 7 days a week.

[crash]

Results today:

Cranbourne R2 Fav. win $1.40
Gosford R3 Fav. win $1.40
Penola R2 Fav. win $2.50
Tamworth R1 Fav. win $2.30

Outlay 9.5 return 7.6

Don't ya' just love these win prices ?

Can't see any $2.93 Fav. 'average' ever eventuating from backing Maiden Favorites Kenchar. Nor a '50% POT' either, regardless how you play them. You must be backing fields of 14 and above only and regularly potting the 'right' Fav. [?].

[kenchar]

Crash,

I am not just backing maidens, but the lower class midweek fields.
Last two days have been hard, with a small win yesterday and a loss today ( 2.6 units )
It.s now 15 days with 1 lose, but the stat figures that everyone seems to go by are still very good, but coming back to reality, S/R 43% POT 24% ave div $2.88. Longest run of outs 5.

I DO NOT back $1.4 favs

I actually got .8 up today and if I had gone the right way where I placed my bet I would have been over and out very early, like an idiot I went the tab and it crashed after the jump.

I'ts good enough for me as today was a real grind and if thats the worse I do with this method I will be a very happy camper.

I'm averaging 1.26 profit a day and if I can maintain that it will do me.

Cheers

[crash]

I wish I had backed Favorites only last Sunday on my little day out at The Bairnsdale Cup meeting, 7 out of 9 Fav. won. The bookies got a hiding from all the few times a year punters there. Smart ar.... me stupidly spent a lot of time doing the form and scoring 1 win and 4 2nds. backing anything but Favorites for the win !

Cheers, Crash

[kenchar]

Looking at the races today I saw the PERFECT race to bet on.

NZ5,

1/ MAIDEN

2/ SLOW TRACK

3/ 1600.metres

4/ FAV A FIRST STARTER

I gave them 1 and they gave me 2.8 back, finished for the day.:rolleyes:

[crash]

Well done Kenchar.

I have taken my eye of this system lately. I'll have to check it out tomorrow.
I never thought about NZ