A slant on Framing a Market.

[moeee]

As I peruse the animals form,I go about placing all dogs in order from the one with the most chance of saluting to the one with the least.
The top animal is given a SCORE of 100.
Then every animal is given 10% less than the animal immediately above it.

So,with 8 dogs,the scores would be 100,90,81,73,66,59,53,48.
This gets me started.
Then I compare the top 2 dogs by imagining they were together in a match race.And this match race was run 100 times.
What share of those 100 results would be won by each dog?
So No.1 has 100 and No.2 has 90.As a percentage No.1 has 53 and No.2 has 47.
If I feel that No.1 can win more than 53 times I decrease No.2's score by a further 10%.
Now No.1 is 100 and No.2 is 81.Percentage chance is 55 and 45.
Again,if I rate No.1 as capable of better than that,another 10%.
No.1 is 100,No.2 is 73.Percentage now 58 and 42.
If it looks about right,THEN the new scores are 100,73,66,59,53,48,43,39.
Then I compare dogs one and three in the same manner.
Then dog 2 and 3.Then 1 and 4.And 2,4 and 3,4.And so on until I have compared every one of the 28 possible combinations.

Then divide the total score by each dogs individual score and you have the minimum dividend The dog needs to pay to qualify to be an overlay.

[Sportz]

And by the time you've done all that, the race is probably over. :D

Seriously though Mo, that does look a tad complicated, but good luck with it. Anyway, how are you going? I hope you're getting some winners.

[moeee]

Hi Sportz!

Yes it is a bit long winded.
But I have a spreadsheet and it knocks it down to about 40 minutes oer race.
PLUS!.I quite enjoy it.
And it only looks complicated like a new DVD player,once you get used to it, Simple.
I am going very well tippingly,Borderline financially and still down the tube personality.
But it's not all ordinary.
My wife ****ed off after 13 years and I feel a little confused adjusting,but am much happier without the burden.

[commanda]

So is this subjective or objective? Do you use formula's with various form factor inputs, or just pick random numbers based on some vague interpretation of the form guide.

You say you run 100 hypothetical races. Is this Monte Carlo simulation?

Sorry if I sound harsh, but your use of the word "imagining" causes me great concern.

BTW; I ran my spreadsheet on Gosford tonight. 10 races, skip the 2 maidens. Leaves 8 races for 4 wins, 50% strike rate. Pitiful dividends returning $7.50 win & $5.50 place on flat stakes.

Amanda

[moeee]

Stick to your mathematics Amanda.
That way you can bet any track,in any state.

My style is a more a seat of the pants way.
You can't really quantify the information mathematically.
Sometimes it works,sometimes not.

Definately not tonight.
At least I had the winners rated at under their starting price.