taking the emotion out of selections

[rooburger]

i am currently in the process of a first 4 and trifecta study on greyhounds.
this involves backing the boxes which over a period of time show better results due to the small advantage it gives.we all know 1,2 3 an 7 ,8 give the dog a better chance if all is even.so how can we tap into this effect.
the study is ongoing so i will post more details as i develop this more.
should anyone have any further ideas drop me aline.
keep you all posted

[Equine Investor]

The box draws are very important.

If the greyhound is a notorious slow beginner then inside draws will bury it.

Fast beginners can usually overcome any draw except maybe the squeeze boxes.

Angle Park inside boxes are actually a disadvantage because of the angle of the trap, why they don't fix this up baffles me.
This is commonly known amongst the hound trainers in S.A.

Anyhow good luck with the project.

[Bhagwan]

The dogs can be a good conveyance for the Trifectas & First 4, if one can hook them.

One thing I have notice is how often box No. 1&8 very rearly get up together in trifectas.

[rooburger]

well its only a small sample but trifectas are currently 15 hits from 60 races 25% for a profit of$417.20
first 4 is 14 from 60 23%for a profit of 1493.40.
i know its too small a test yet so i will keep you all posted.
the first 4 results are all albion park and the tri,s are hobart and launceston.
stay tuned.

[TESTAROSSA]

Are those results achieved by boxing all the numbers or standing 1 or 2 out?

[rooburger]

they are the same no,s in all meetings with the first 4 a 3,4,6,field combo for a cost of 180 units or 45 for a quarter unit here in s.a.
the trifecta is a 2,7 field for a cost of 72 units or a 36 half unit.
update from monday nights results are albion park 4 from 10 paying total 4368.40/4 =1092.10 for a profit of 642.10
trifecta launceston 5 from 10 total 773.70/2=386.85 profit only 26.85.it big risk for a small return that night .
the trial continues.

[seamerthechamp]

If the dog is classy and good enough it can
win in any box it draws same as horse racing
Remeber in the stradbroke how show a heart
carry almost top weight and drew the widest barrier and still comes out winning the big
race, same goes for calaway gal {wide barrier
and who can forget the golden slipper winner
belle du jour miss the start and draw wide.
They all have one thing in common because
they are good champion horses,same as dog if
they are good enough they can overcome all
this obstacles, do you agree?
cheers!

[Equine Investor]

No, sorry don't agree at all.

If you're backing a dog over say 511 metres and it misses the start only slightly from an inside draw, basically it's all over. Seen this scenario over many years. Also the difference is that dogs don't have jockeys so not only does your dog have to run true, but so do all the others. In essence bad luck can destroy any dog's chances and is almost unrecoverable in a short race.

[Merriguy]

Roo
Enjoying your postings on the dogs. I too believe that there are possibilities there.

I haven't been trying to pick first fours; but will study your suggestions.

Regarding the tris, by choosing two standouts with four (sometimes three) others, I have been able to pick up at least one trifecta in four on average. I usually only take a NSW Flexi for $10, giving a 25% or 41.66% return (with 5 or 6 dogs involved). As the tri returns, if there is a good pool, are often quite big, one win can keep you above water for quite some time :smile:

I would be interested to hear a) why you choose those particular tracks (often the pools are much smaller); and b) why you put in the field for third --- obviously an outsider can boost the results quite a lot; but it is my observation that the outsider just as often comes up first or second!

Thanks again for the postings.

[rooburger]

thanks guy,
i chose those tracks after a sample of 500 races and box results. the boxes i have gone with have a better percentage of showing up.
with the first 4 i can only get this on in south australia and queensland due to this states tab.
i have gone with the field for the final placing only because if you get those first placings up i want a winner.
yep greedy i know but i,ve tried various combos and values and keep returning to this set up.
it really depends on bank size and how much risk you are willing to stomach.
well another meeting is on tonight so i will post results soon.remember its still in the trial stage.
if anybody has any further ideas dont be shy we all want to win.

Are trifecta pools large enough in dog races to make it worthwhile?
I like backing no 1 or 8. Whichever has the best price.

[Mark]

Re barriers, I agree, I believe barriers have little importance. In fact I don't agree with most so-called racing theories, ie leaders win slow run races, alternatively backmarkers win fast run races, light weights in the wet, 2nd up hoodoo, big horses or long striders need big tracks, such & such is a leaders track, all can be argued for & more importantly against, & there are literally thousands more. Could one of the stats people do a study of inside versus outside barriers (field of 10, 1-5 inside, & 6-10 outside) over say the last 1000 races, all distances, fields, tracks, conditions. My guess would be 55% inside to 45% outside, no great advantage. If I studied the form & came down to 2 picks, 1 drawn the inside & 1 drawn the outside, I would take the outside. More likely to be better odds & more likely to get a clearer run. Just my opinions.

[Merriguy]

Roo

I would like to suggest that you be ready to open an account with the NSWTab.

From what you have revealed, I believe I have a pretty good idea of which boxes you back for the tris. I went back to the results for last Monday at Launceston. If I have worked out the 5 races that you won on, your return would have been (for a full unit) $957.90 instead of $773.70 --- $184.20 more (or on your half unit, an increase of $65.25 over the $26.85 you achieved). Worthwhile :smile:

Incidentally, that $26.85 is still 7.46% POT!

If I did not pick your five winning races, my suggestion still has merit. The total returns on the tris for the night were:
NSWTab - $1389.20
Unitab - $1137.00
That's an increase of $252.20!!!

Even the two First 4s at Albion Park that NSWTab had open (Races six & eight) produced a substantially increased return --- $1892.10 versus $1048.20.

I guess this varies from meeting to meeting --- one TAB won't always outdo the other. Actually I thought that they worked together to produce a rough parity between TABs. Others would know more about this tan myself.

Am enjoying the research!!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Merriguy on 2002-08-01 12:03 ]</font>

Mark,

Your comments are interesting.

In regards to speed of a race. How would a horse like Universal Prince beat a leader from 15 lengths behind at the 600m if the race was slowly run?

example
2000m time 2.05 mins
last 600m in 34 secs (leader's time)
first 1400m in 91 secs

Do you think UP could run 31.4 secs in the last 600m and win?

[becareful]

On 2002-08-01 12:00, Merriguy wrote:
I guess this varies from meeting to meeting --- one TAB won't always outdo the other. Actually I thought that they worked together to produce a rough parity between TABs. Others would know more about this tan myself.


Merriguy,
The TABs do not work together to give parity. The Win divs are usually very similar since people can see any discrepancies and will back them on the other TABS and/or avoid them on the TAB where odds are too short. With exotic dividends, particularly trifectas, it is not possible to get approximates so you often get massive unders or overs (compared to what the "true" div should be based on the placegetters odds). I think you will find that in the long run it probably wont make much difference which TAB you go with as I believe they all take the same % off the pool so in theory the divs should work out the same over the long term. Some days 1 TAB will pay higher divs - the next day it will probably be the other way round. Personally I do not like placing bets on things where you have no idea of the odds (ie. trifectas) - but thats just my opinion.

Manikato,
I tend to agree with Mark - in the example you give the simple answer is that if the race was run slower then UP would not have been 15 lengths behind at the 600M (if the jockey is any good) - he would probably have only been a few lengths behind and therefore could still have won the race. With all these "theories" the advocates will quote specific examples that prove their theory whilst ignoring any races that don't follow the pattern. Whilst there are some that do have a degree of merit (eg. inside barriers at certain tracks/distances) in most cases the benefit is overestimated by the punting public so you tend to get good "overs" on the "disadvantaged" horses.

Becareful,

If Sheehan was riding him, he be 15 lengths back. If Beadman was riding him he might be a lot closer.

If a leader is able to run slower over the 1st part of the race, the horse has more energy to run a faster last 600m (look at some sectional times) If they walk the first part, a leader could run 34 secs or less for the final 600m. Even if a horse like UP was only 6 lengths back, it would still be very difficult for him to win.

If you look at Sportscolour re 200m sectionals, horses often run about 12 secs for last 200m and about 23 secs from 600-200m. Given a slower early pace, leaders can
run 22 secs from 600m to 200m and less than 12 secs over the final 200m. If this happens, it is near on impossible for backmarkers to win. A leader does need to be able to sprint though.

If the pace was fast, more horses tire, and the stronger, stayer types have the advantage.

Ian Thorpe is the perfect example of a on pacer who can sprint. The only way Grant Hackett could beat him over 400m is if Thorpe went thru the first 250m like a 50m sprint. Even then Thorpe would probably still win due to class.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: manikato on 2002-08-01 16:16 ]</font>

[Mark]

I think over estimated are the key words. I'm sure we've all been around long enough to see leaders win/lose, backmarkers win/lose, both in fast/slow races, inside/outside barriers win/lose, odds on favs win/lose, 100/1 shots win/lose, etc etc I'm sure someone has the time to do the barrier study that I suggested, the reult being immaterial to me as I don't do the form, just bet to figures.
Good Punting.

[Equine Investor]

Mark I have recently done the barrier stats for someone on this forum who kindly did me a favour.
The end result over thousands of races over various distances on various tracks and in varied going gave only a slight disadvantage percentage wise to extreme outside barriers.

The percentage difference over any distance was 1-2% and not even worth worrying about.

What this tells us is that the barrier must suit the horse's style of running.The way the race is run also dictates whether the barrier will be of any consequence. Even over short distances this was true.
For example I would not back a leader from an extreme outside barrier, but would back a swooper.
But remember - there will always be exceptions to any rule, that's what keeps us on our toes!

[Hammers]

Eq Inv,
I wouldn't mind backing a leader from 16 if the inside 15 were slugs.
I do speed maps for the first 200 metres of a race with some degree of accuracy and it can make a huge difference to ones thinking of a particular race. Take Randwick, the 1400, 1800 and 2000 starts are treacherous and if you can figure who is going to be where it is an enormous help.
As for your swooper, I'd rather it drew in the middle as it could settle say 10th of 16th. If it drew the outside there are two possibilities - drop out to last or sit deep in the mid to rear of the field. I'd much rather back a swooper from 10th on the turn than last on the turn.
Cheers.

Most racing ideas are over rated I would agree. You need to assess each circumstance on its merits.

A wide barrier would make no difference to Sunline if she is racing against stayers for instance, despite being a leader.

At some distances and tracks, wide barriers can be an advantage (though not too wide). Take the 1600m at Randwick for example.
Dye always liked a barrier in the range of 10-14.

[Equine Investor]

Hammers, some good points there.

I was just pointing out that barrier positions are SOMETIMES overrated when doing form. Each race and runner has to be assessed individually, rather than apply a steadfast rule. As the percentages indicate, the advantage, disadvantage can be overrated but it depends on the runner. And as I say, there are always exceptions to the rule.