Formline

[Mad Gambler]

I'm about to sit down and do the form for tomorrows races. I'm looking at 4 races -- 2 from Rosehill, 1 from Doomben and the other from Adelaide.

My question is:

In 1 race the horse was 2nd over 1300m in a class 3 at its last start. The start before that it finished 3rd in a class 3 over 1100m.

The obivious that it was up in distance and up half a kg in weight. Anything eles i should look for in the two runs.

Mad Gambler

[wesmip1]

I would be looking at a lot more than that to determine the differences.

If it was up in KG's then it was probably rated as a better chance in its last start relatice to the competition it faced in the second last start by the handicapper.

Other questions :
How many horses were in each race ?
What was the competition factor (how hard was it to win each race) in each race ?
What did the horse do at both races .. did it have a bad jump ?, was it caught it up in the straight before it could get away, did it go too hard early ?
Did the horse race with an apprentice at either race ?
etc,
etc,
etc.

Thats jsut a start but I think this should give you an idea of what should be looked at.

Its a long hard toil if you want to handicap properly ... but can be worth it.

Good Luck....

[crash]

[QUOTE=Mad Gambler]I'm about to sit down and do the form for tomorrows races. I'm looking at 4 races -- 2 from Rosehill, 1 from Doomben and the
My question is:

In 1 race the horse was 2nd over 1300m in a class 3 at its last start. The start before that it finished 3rd in a class 3 over 1100m.

The obivious that it was up in distance and up half a kg in weight. Anything eles i should look for in the two runs.other from Adelaide.


Mad Gambler[/QUOTE

Give me the race and horse and let me get back to you.

[Mad Gambler]

Rosehill race 2 number 4

Mad Gambler

[crash]

Mad,

OK I've had a look. There must be 100 races going on tomorrow and this race is a dog's breakfast to handicap with any accuracy. Why make it so hard on yourself? There is a whole cavalry of runners in it. At leat 200 horses !!

Watched your selection run at Bainsdale [my local track]. Fast time and has a heap of potential but Bainsdale can be a very fast track to run on time wise. I'd want $9 [$15 would be better] at least for him. Arguments could be put for a heap of horses to win this: 2,12,13,15 and more. The ones I like are 12 boss's mount [basically because boss is on it, it ran a close second at this track and distance and it is as good as any other choice [take your pick].

Another i like as a long-shot [why not?] a real quick 1.09 from a 1200m in Wyong carrying 57k, now way down in the weights, No.15. That one will at least have plenty of odds. Personally I'd be looking for much easier races to bet on like 4yr. old and up HCP's. Hope I have helped here. Not trying to say don't bet the race. More interested in why bother mate? I'ts a very hard one to pick.

PS. Murphy's law says your selection will now win ...easily :-)

[lomaca]

Mad,

OK I've had a look. There must be 100 races going on tomorrow and this race is a dog's breakfast to handicap with any accuracy. Why make it so hard on yourself? There is a whole cavalry of runners in it. At leat 200 horses !!

Watched your selection run at Bainsdale [my local track]. Fast time and has a heap of potential but Bainsdale can be a very fast track to run on time wise. I'd want $9 [$15 would be better] at least for him. Arguments could be put for a heap of horses to win this: 2,12,13,15 and more. The ones I like are 12 boss's mount [basically because boss is on it, it ran a close second at this track and distance and it is as good as any other choice [take your pick].

Another i like as a long-shot [why not?] a real quick 1.09 from a 1200m in Wyong carrying 57k, now way down in the weights, No.15. That one will at least have plenty of odds. Personally I'd be looking for much easier races to bet on like 4yr. old and up HCP's. Hope I have helped here. Not trying to say don't bet the race. More interested in why bother mate? I'ts a very hard one to pick.

PS. Murphy's law says your selection will now win ...easily :-)
Hi!
Rosehill Race2 11/02/06
I have them in this order
2,6,13,10,4
Sorry, I have no highfalutin explanations to go with the selections.
If I am proven wrong on the day, I will cheerfully admit it.
Good luck all!

[crash]

We could probably add another 3 or 4 without explanation and still get done by something else. My point is this is a C3 3yr. old race, all potential [or not] and little exposed form with a heap of runners. Why bother? How many bets does someone need on a Saturday to include every rubbish race on the card?

There is a swag of good races [not Sydney] offering good odds with plenty of exposed form.

[KennyVictor]

I'm with you MG, I've got No 4 half a length better than 12 and 6 with the fav No 7 just behind them but Crash is right, a lot of horses all very close. Still, that usually makes for decent prices.

KV

[Mad Gambler]

I completly mis understood this thing called formline.

In race 2 in Sydney on Jan 28th Guilded Youth ran 2nd to Precise Timing and at its next today Guilded Youth won $9.20.

Another in race 1 on the same day Absolutlyfablous ran 3rd to Dubai's Choice and today it wins the Inglis Classic at $4.10.

These are just 2 examples.

Mad Gambler

[KennyVictor]

I suppose if it was easy everyone would pick the winner of all the races, and what would that do to dividends? That's probably why Crash is advising you to look for easier races (if such things exist).KV

[crash]

9/2/7 Pick easier races to handicap[?]