Neuralmania

[michaelg]

I have been using the basic premise with my neural Lays to look at selections to bet. After yesterday's racing there have now been 108 selections for 44 winners providing a strike rate of 40% for a 14% POT with NSW TAB. There have been 81 placegetters providing a strike rate of 75% for a 6% POT. The good thing about it is that I didn't test it "on paper" but with real money. Maybe 108 races might not be enough but we'll see how they go.

Five selections today:
Wyong R4 no.1 - Centinelle
Colac R6 no.1 - Abitakash
Kyneton R2 no.5 - Once A Warrior
Albany R2 no.1 - Littlesixfoot.
Albany 6 no.1 - Some Secret.

[Top Rank]

Hi Michaelg

The neurals you speak of, where do you access them from, or are they your own creation.

[michaelg]

Hi, Top Rank.

They're at aapracingandsports.com.au/racing/ In the menu click on to Free Daily Stats which will take you to the racing section. Then click on to the venue of your choice, and then to Neural Algorithms from the menu. The neurals will then automatically appear for Race 1.

[Top Rank]

Michaelg,

Thanks for that.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michaelg,
Can you say what the basic rules are for those selectons are.

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

I can't reveal the selection process at this time. At the start of betting I informed a forum member (I'm not certain how often he looks at this site) of the exact procedure and sent him the selections each day, and after the first couple of weeks which was quite profitable it was more-or-less agreed that if it continued to be successful we would keep it to ourselves. I've sent him an e-mail this a.m and am waiting to hear from him to see if I can reveal the method here, but I can almost predict what the answer will be. After saying this, it could easily crash and be worthless. All I can say is that it is not based on neural settings or points allocated.

Today is the first day that there are no selections.

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan. If you are still interested in the method please contact me at mglfyl@aol.com

Three selections today:
Wangaratta R3 no.10 - Sylvanna
Wangaratta R6 no.1 - Two Sons
Townsville R6 no.3 - My Saladdin.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's three selections there were two winners totalling $5.90, and all three placed paying $4.90.

There have now been eight selections since posting on the forum for six winners totalling $17.80 and eight placegetters totalling $11.70. A terrific start but it can't continue at this pace (excuse the pun).

Two selections today:
Ascot R2 no.1 - Silver Seam
Ascot R8 no.1 - Sir Viv.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's two selections there was one winner of $2.10, and both selections placed paying $2.50.

To date there has been ten selections for 7 winners paying $19.90, and all ten selections have placed paying $14.20. I cannot get rid of the feeling that it must crash.

Only one selection today:
Ipswich R3 no.1 - Myndos.

[kiwi]

Congratulations Michael another winner, what an incredible strike rate.:D

[Stix]

From yesterday's two selections there was one winner of $2.10, and both selections placed paying $2.50.

To date there has been ten selections for 7 winners paying $19.90, and all ten selections have placed paying $14.20. I cannot get rid of the feeling that it must crash.

Only one selection today:
Ipswich R3 no.1 - Myndos.
Well done! Bolting along..... :D

[michaelg]

Yes, it's performing much better than I could have ever expected. If you go back to the beginning of this thread you will see the strike rate for 108 races has not come close to the s.rate compared to that since I began posting the selections here. Halfway through the system when I was sending the selections to my friend I very slightly altered the method to be more selective - maybe this might account for the current strike rate. I have to mention that there have been losing days.

Anyone know why I'm experiencing major problems accessing the neural site? From 10.15 to 10.45 I was unable to get into it, and today has not been the first time. I've done a virus and Adaware scan - but both were clean. I'm not too cluey with computers. Is there anything I can do? There is no problems with any other sites, even with the TAB which I would expect to have much more traffic than the neural website???

Only one selection today:
Rocky R4 no.1 - Deceiving.

[KennyVictor]

I'm not that familiar with the neural site but I have a feeling it does some computing as it produces its figures as opposed to just regurgitating data. This might account for it slowing down to a larger degree during heavy traffic times.

KV

[kiwi]

Deceiving also agrees with one of my systems that says number one becomes a bet when favourite.
The strike rate of number one when favourite is 52%:)

P.S. The neural site has problems when there is high traffic volume. It can also play havoc with the Daily Challange.

[Grub]

MG,

Last night I was using the site without a problem then it froze for about 1/2 hr, I was asking a few question myself but looks like it is just struggling to cope at peak times.

Grub

[Bhagwan]

Try this to speed it up.
Hold "shift" then press "Refresh" while the page is trying to open.
This usually fixes the problem.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Thanks for the info re the delay on the neural site.

Yesterday's sole selection lost on the win bet, but won $0.40 on the place. To date there have been 12 selections for 8 winners paying $22.00 and 12 placings for $16.60.

Five selections today:
Cheltenham R4 no.13 - Barker Lad
Newcastle R3 no.1 - Storbealt
Gold Coast R5 no.3 - Rapid Spur
Ascot R1 no.1 - Paris Petard
Ascot R2 no.1 - O'Flirty.

[wesmip1]

michaelg,

Nice work again today with some nice winners ( 3 winners, 1 lost and 1 scratching ). Its good to see all the winners are not $2.00 or less as well. Give it another 300 selections and you might be onto something here.

Keep posting them.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Yes, wesmip1, but I'd give it about 1000 races.

The end of the 7 day period. There have been 16 selections for 11 winners paying $29.70, and 15 placegetters for $21.30. It has performed very well but is due for a correction, probably today.

Eight selections today:
Coffs R2 no.11 - River Born
Coffs R3 no.10 - Red Diva
Coffs R5 no.2 - Sequalo Lass
Pt Lincoln R7 no.1 - Cardiac Arrest
Camperdown R2 no.1 - Bartolo
Camperdown R4 no.12 - Moosouk
Bunbury R4 no.8 - Whinnen

[michaelg]

I forgot to list the eighth selection. It is:

Port Lincoln R2 no.4 - Daddy Mac.

[michaelg]

Almost a complete wipeout yesterday. From the eight selections there was one winner paying $2.80, and three placegetters paying $4.70. Hopefully its just a temporary glitch and not its death knell.

To date there have been 24 selections for 12 winners for a 35% POT, and 19 placegetters for a 8% POT.

Three selections today:
Dubbo r8 no.2 - Kelly Road.
Swan Hill R3 no.5 - Pay Day
Kempsey R1 no.8 - The Spinster.

[kiwi]

Great comeback today Michael, hope you got plenty.:)

[Papyrus]

Does anyone have any inside info why neurals hasn't got Wedensday up,

[wesmip1]

They usually put them up as they get the fields confirmed. Sometimes they are late. Usually you won't get them all up till the day before.

[Spazattack]

Michael, any clue as to what went wrong on Sunday? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon9.gif http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon5.gif

Been doing so well, back on track again yesterday. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon7.gif

[KennyVictor]

Michael, any clue as to what went wrong on Sunday? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon9.gif http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon5.gif

Been doing so well, back on track again yesterday. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon7.gifAnyone got any idea what's wrong with this website. We constantly hear of the millions our benevolent benefators have spent on the software to keep us chatting but smiles come out like web page addresses, I don't have permission to access my own details, etc. Don't their suppliers have software support or have they actually downloaded the software via crakazoid.

KV

[michaelg]

Hi, Spazattack. I double-checked the selections, and they were all genuine. I didn't listen to the races so I don't know if bad luck had anything to so with it. Maybe the law of averages ruled after having such a good run.

The neural site is now working properly, it wasn't earlier today. I'm using my AOL browser.

Yesterday the three selections won paying $5.30 for the win and $3.40 for the place. Very disappointing divvies. Two were $3.20 and $4.00 pre-post yet paid odds-on.

TO date there have been 27 selections for 15 winners providing a 34% POT and 21 placegetters for a 8% POT.

Three selections today:
Cessnock R3 no.1 - Montecito
Wangaratta R2 no.7 - Poiter
Townsville R6 no.1 - Ruhlmann.

[michaelg]

One winner from yesterday's three selections paying $4.50, and two placegetters paying $3.10.

Seven selections today:
Hawkesbury R5 no.10 - Yalaad
Launceston R2 no.3 - At St Georges
Launceston R3 no.3 - Dusky Edition
Launceston R10 no.1 - Lost Range
Murray Bridge R1 no.13 - Mytilini Miss
Murray Bridge R3 no.1 - Hurricane Gaze
Geraldton R6 no.2 - Solar Impact.

[Spazattack]

Michael, when I asked if you had a clue as to why Sunday's results were not up to par, I should have prompted a little more.

I have found with the neurals, some states are definitely better/worse performers than others.

You may be using much more than the basic neurals in your decision making, don't know.

However, from experience, Victoria and New South Wales seem to be the most accurate http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon14.gif, southern Queensland, South Australia and WA adequate http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon2.gif , but Tasmania and north Queensland present real risks http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon13.gif.

You may find exactly the opposite.

You might like to look at your overall impressive results, on a state by state basis. See if anything stands out. Also, distance of winning/losing races may point to an improved strike rate.

[michaelg]

Hi, Spazattack.

I remember testing a neural system some time ago and races under 1,200 metres did not perform well, so with your prompting I looked at these races for this system. Since listing the selections here on Sunday 12 Feb there have been 11 selections for a return of $11.90 on win betting but only $9.40 for the place. So from today I'll delete these races. I also looked at different states but there does not seem to be any advandage or disadvantage. If you have any more suggestions please let me know so I can check them.

Four selections today:
Canterbury R4 no.2 - Gentille
Queanbeyan R1 no.1 - Chezmay
Mackay R5 no.3 - Pilliga
Albany R5 no.2 - Casual Wolf

[feather]

hi michaelg
if you look at keeping the weight to 58-58.5k, may save you a few bets

[racingnovice]

Another good day michael keep it going :).

[michaelg]

Hi, Feather. I won't get too much action but I'll keep your suggestion in mind as I might hopefully be able to work some system around it.

From yesterday's three (one was scratched) selections there were two winners totalling $7.30, and all three placed paying $4.60.

Three selections today:
Sale R7 no.3 - Jetera
Penola R1 no.5 - Shamber
Darwin R5 no.1 - Montepertuso.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's three selections there were no winners and only one placegetter paying $1.70.

Three selections today:
Eagle Farm R4 no.1 - Allegro Spiritoso
Ascot R6 no.2 - Danehill Country
Ascot R8 no.2 - Bold Ransom.

[michaelg]

Yesterday there were three selections for one winner of $2.20 and one placegetter of $1.30. Two successive losing days.

Four selections today:
Sun Coast R4 no5 - Pic 'n' Mix.
Launceston R1 no3 - Stepping Back
launceston R6 no.3 - Rustia
Launceston R7 no.2 - Jennifer.

[wesmip1]

michael,

Good tips again today with a couple of winners.

Whats the running totals for the selections ? ie how many winners and POT ?

Thanks

[michaelg]

Hi, Wesmip1. Prior to limiting races to a minimum distance of 1,200 metres there were 144 races for 61 winners and a POT of 17.5%, and there were 104 placegetters for a POT of 6.8%. Since limiting to 1,200 metres-plus there have been 13 selections for 5 winners providing a POT of 8.4% but 8 placegetters for a LOT of 11.5.

I am also currently testing races of 7 runners (only 15 races at the moment) and 9 runners (25 races) where I "buy" the trifecta. For some reason there have been some terrific trifecta divvies for these races, maybe trifecta betting might be the way to go with these small fields - time will tell. Both systems are showing amazing profits - slightly in excess of 100% POT but this is due to one or two large divvies which can distort the POT. Yesterday I had the tri at Launceston R4 (9 runners) which paid $2,000 for an outlay of $210. Prior to that race, the system was showing in excess of 50% because of several divvies that paid more than the outlay (210 combinations out of a total of 504 possibe combinations). I'll wait for about 100 races with both methods, and if still in profit I'll list the selections here.

Yesterday from the four selections there were two winners paying $4.60, and three placegetters paying $3.90.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

One selection today:

Grafton R3 no.1 - Pigeon Ponds.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selection ran third paying $1.20

Two selections today:
Strathalbyn R8 no.7 - Steel Currency
Bunbury R2 no.8 - Nike Heir.

[michaelg]

I had computer problems yesterday, however there were no selections.

Three selections today:
Ipswich R2 no.1 - Mr Clang
Hawkesbury R4 no.5 - Savage Sevens
Sandown R3 no.1 - Anais.

[michaelg]

Yesterday there was one winner of $1.80 from the two selections, both placed paying $2.50.

Five selections today:
Rosehill R8 no.4 - Kincharm
Caulfield R7 no.1 - Serenade Rose
Morphetville R4 no.1 - Bomber Bill
Ascot R1 no.2 - Graduate Boy
Ascot R5 no.4 - Belle Bizarre.

[michaelg]

Yesterday I listed Bomber Bill, but the race was less than 1,200 metres so it was not a selection.

From the remaining four selections there were three winners totalling $5.20 for the win and $3.30 for the place.

Four selections today:
Bendigo R8 no.3 - Tubular Bells
Sun Coast R7 no.2 - Little Punc
Balaklava R3 no.1 - Feel The Moment
Balaklava R7 no.1 - Desert Mission

[michaelg]

Yesterday from the four selections there were three winners paying a total of $7.00, and all placed paying $5.50.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

One selection today:

Port Lincoln R4 no.1 - Yarterbery.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection won, paying $2.30 and $1.20.

Three selections today:
Randwick R6 no.1 - Swishes
Taree R4 no.1 - Murodane
Ascot R9 no.1 - Main Stage.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's three selections thre was one winner of $2.30, and two placegetters paying 2.70.

One selection today:
Werribee R4 no.4 - Martian Dust.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection placed paying $1.10.

[michaelg]

Four selections today:

Pakenham R1 no.2 - Dawson Road
Ascot R2 no.1 - Shy Wild
Ascot R5 no.1 - Real Halo
Ascot R6 no.1 - Scenic Shot

[aussieincanada]

Four selections today:

Pakenham R1 no.2 - Dawson Road
Ascot R2 no.1 - Shy Wild
Ascot R5 no.1 - Real Halo
Ascot R6 no.1 - Scenic Shot

Dawson Road over hurdles ????

Good Luck

[michaelg]

Hi, aussieincanada.

This is the first Hurdle race I've looked at, but as it falls within the parameters of the system I've included it. I was "in two minds", but because I also rate Maidens I've decided to list it. Here's hoping...

[michaelg]

From yesterday's four selections there were three winners paying $5.60. The two odds-on winners were $3.50 pre-post.

Two selections today:
Clare R6 no.1 - Western Jester
Launceston R2 no.5 - Sahara Star.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's two selections there was one winner of $2.50, and both placed also paying $2.50.

Since limiting the minimum distance to 1,200 metres on 23/02/06 there have been 36 selections for 18 winners producing a POT of 10.5%. There have been 28 placegetters for a 0.6% LOT.

One selection today:
Dubbo R6 no.1 - Double Entendre.

[La Mer]

From yesterday's two selections there was one winner of $2.50, and both placed also paying $2.50.

Since limiting the minimum distance to 1,200 metres on 23/02/06 there have been 36 selections for 18 winners producing a POT of 10.5%. There have been 28 placegetters for a 0.6% LOT.

Michael, what odds are you basing your returns on? If they are not based on best tote then maybe they should be as such dividends are available from a number of corporate bookies.

[michaelg]

Hi, La Mer.

All divvies quoted here are with the NSW TAB. I've had a few bets with Mark Read's Super Price which is generally slightly better than the TAB. If the system continues to perform I might consider Austote.

[malua1884]

Good Tip Michael.

Was a big go late on this one.

Unitab was showing $7 with 5 to go.

Well done

[michaelg]

It must have been a substantial plunge because unfortunately it only paid $2.60 and $1.30 here. I don't think any of the winners so far have bettered or even equalled their pre-post price.

Two selections today:
Port Mac R6 no.2 - Lookslikekevin
Bunbury R1 no.10 - Yield A Star.

[michaelg]

Yesterday I erred by including the Bunbury selection - it should not have been listed because the race was less than 1,200 metres. The other selection was unplaced.

Three selections today:
Sandown R1 no.1 - Chakra
Sandown R3 no.4 - River tribe
Gold Coast R2 no.5 - Cackles.

[michaelg]

Of yesterday's three selections there was one winner of $1.60, and two placed paying $2.70.

One selection today:
Townsville R4 no.1 - Crafty's Brother.

[michaelg]

Yesterday' selection won paying $1.90 and $1.10.

One selection today:
Canberra R2 no.12 - Jade By Me.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection was unplaced.

Seven selections today:
Flemington R8 no.1 - Serenade Rose
Geelong R4 no.7 - Pride of Westbury
Geelong R 6 no.6 - Last Waltz
Gold Coast R1 no.8 - Valconic
Gold Coast R5 no.7 - Danish Pearls
Toowoomba R7 no.1 - Mister Alpha
Ascot R6 no.1 - Wave Rock.

[michaelg]

A bad day yesterday. From the seven selections there were two winners totalling $3.60, and five placegetters totalling $6.50.

Since 23 Feb, the date limiting the races to 1,200 metres-plus, the system has had 50 selections and is now in the red, it's losing $0.50. I'll give it a little longer...

Six selections today:
Canberra R4 no.1 - Keltic Flash
Canberra R6 no.3 - New Edge
Benalla R1 no.1 - Aurangi
Benalla R9 no.3 - Costa Marabella
Devenport R7 no.10 - Coogee Beach
Pinjarra R1 no.14 - Sharlington Ace

[Chrome Prince]

Michaelg,

Don't give up mate, a very small loss is just that, no doubt you are on the right track with the record you have in the past.

The application of only one extra filter could easily see you rocket into significant profit.

I note that some of your unplaced selections were beaten by significant margins, even though the placing looked good on paper.

Keep at it.

[michaelg]

Hi, Chrome Prince.

I've been looking at different variations of it, but haven't got anything worthwhile yet. There would have only been one selection today which was Narromine R5 no.2 - it ran second paying $1.04. Maybe it's Bhagwan's shifting sands syndrome??? Maybe if there were more selections per day it would even itself out in a short period and not having to wait for a long time?

[michaelg]

I've noticed that the days since last run has had a positive influence on the selections and has performed quite well in the past week which I've tested. So I'll reintroduce the system based on days from last run. Using the neural DLR algorithym on a setting of 3 I'll base the first method on those that have a points allotment of 20 as I believe this is 7 days or less since last run. And the second method will have a points allotment of 18 as I believe this is less than 14 days since last run. Here's hoping...

First method (20 DLR points) has two selections today:
Ipswich R1 no.2 - Fil The Bill
Murray Bridge R1 no.1 - Danseur Noir

Second method (18 DLR points) has five selections.
Kembla R4 no.2 - Ledger
Devenport R1 no.3 - Krakow
Devenport R2 no.7 - Sagan
Devenport R4 no.2 - Enfuego
Devenport R5 no.4 - Doubly Bubbly

[michaelg]

Yesterday was not a bad day. Method A (first method) had two selections for only one placegetter of $1.70. Method B had five selections for three winners totalling $11.10, and all five placed paying $7.80.

One selection for method A:
Geraldton R3 no.2 - Kontiki Sir

No selections for method B.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's method A selection was unplaced.

One selection today, method B:
Sandown R1 no.2 - Bello Signor.

[salty]

Sometimes a bit strange, these neurals. Just looking at Chartform in Sportsman for tomorrow. Adelaide R6 no 1 has had 2 sts @dist for no placings. Neurals set on 3 awards him 15 points for distance. Same race no 7 has had 1 win from 1 start - given 9 points for that. Makes you wonder what other anomalies there are. It is difficult to check on.

[wesmip1]

salty,

If I am correct the distance rating is based on class as well. No 1 probably ran in better class races and/or ran better times over the distance then No 7 did.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1, I've always wondered at some of the points the neurals allocate. You may be right about coming down in class. And it appears that the CF category allots unrealistic points (IMHO) to those dropping in class.

Yesterday's sole system B selection won, paying $2.10 and $1.30.

One system A selection today:
Ascot R4 no.2 - Lyrical Queen

Four system B selections:
Rosehill R5 no.1 - Bentley Biscuit
Cheltenham R5 no.2 - Faxed
Hawkesbury R7 no.2 - Nervate
Toowoomba R3 no.3 - Frisco's Rose.

[michaelg]

The method A selection was unplaced. From the four method B selections there was one winner of $4.10, and two placegetters paying $3.90.

Two method A selections today:
Strathalbyn R2 no.2 - Ascot Lane
Launceston R1 no.2 - Buster Road

One method B selection:
Sale R3 no.5 - Gulaga

[michaelg]

No selections yesterday.

One system A selection:
Albany R1 no.11- Kinchica

One system B selection:
Albany R2 no. 3 - Tactarki.

[michaelg]

Yesterday of the two selections there were no winners, one placegetter of $2.10.

Nine selections today, all system A

Ipswich R2 no.8 - In A Circle
Ipswich R4 no.2 - Eagle Street
Devenport R1 no.4 - At St Georges
Devenport R2 no.1 - Goodolbullsky
Devenport R4 no.3 - Our Boy Darcy
Devenport R5 no.5 - Barotis
Devenport R6 no.2 - Sagan
Devenport R7 no.10 - Major Extension
Devenport R8 no.2 - Fritllary

[Stix]

Given up on this Michaelg ?


Summary for W.A. I had

Bets 24
Wins 11 (45.8% SR)
Places 15 (62.5% SR)

WPOT 1.4% (Still a profit....)
PPOT (17.5%)

LWS 2
LLS 5
Showed some potential from a small sample...

[michaelg]

Hi. Stix.

I'm still working on it. The main factor I'm looking at is that the horse must have had its last run less than 14 days. Yesterday Canterbury R3 no.8 was a selection paying $25.50 and $4.70. Unfortunately I've lost my recent results and have to start again. I'm also now looking closely at field size as per the Jockey/Trainer forum thread. Do you place any importance on field size?

There are three provisionary selections today;
Rocky R1 no2
Rocky R4 no.2
Rocky R7 no.4

[Stix]

Hi. Stix.

I'm still working on it. The main factor I'm looking at is that the horse must have had its last run less than 14 days. Yesterday Canterbury R3 no.8 was a selection paying $25.50 and $4.70. Unfortunately I've lost my recent results and have to start again. I'm also now looking closely at field size as per the Jockey/Trainer forum thread. Do you place any importance on field size?

There are three provisionary selections today;
Rocky R1 no2
Rocky R4 no.2
Rocky R7 no.4No importance placed on field size, really only look at class of race, gives more background to the horses.

With respect to your provisional selections, i've got:

Rockhampton R1-1
Rockhampton R4-1
Rockhampton R7-4 :D
One of us is gunna be un happy ;)

Good Luck