The Third Tip Plan

[Bhagwan]

Heres an old plan that I found, that pulls some suprising divs.
Often pulls double digit prices.
Betting 7 days a week.

1)Target the 3rd TABQ Radio TAB selection only or any other reliable sources 3rd selection.
2)We bet this 3rd selection only for all venues , stopping at that venue once one winner gets up, regardless of price.
3)Do the same for all the other venues.
4)Target venues with at least 7 races on the card.

Staking is 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,=15. if no winner at that venue, rule off & start again. Over 8 races.
Bank needed $150 using $1.00 min. bet .
This allows for 10X8 outs .
This averages out to less than $2.00 a race

It may work just as well using level stakes. Check & compare if one wishes to lean that way.

One will usually strike a winner in 8 races , sometimes non but the prices it pulls usually makes up for it .
Feb Mon13th. had some amazing divs. Check it out.

Try it out on some past results before punting real money with it.

Cheers.

[Sportz]

Yeah, I had a little each way on the Tassie one. How incredible to get a 3rd tip paying $42.

[dingoboy]

funny you should post that.

i have gone over months worth of data for qld tab "radio tips'
they produce roughly 50 % winners there abouts, if one eliminates the "roughies' priced at over the 10 mark the percentages increase.

What i am looking at is.

take the two first selected by radio tab for the win.
equal ammounts on each runner, ie 50/2 runners is 25 on each.
use divisor plan with divisor set at 4.
and go race to race bets not venue to venue.
stop when days target is reached.

I dont have data on this, i just go back through the data online, i would be interested if anyone has it though.

???Dingo???

[wesmip1]

Dingoboy, Bhagwan,

Something you should realise is the tabonline tips,TABQ Tips, RadioTab Tips (all the smae thing) are all based on different people. Each meeting on Each day has a different tipster. They are not based on some computer formulae or ratings.

If you determine who's tips you are following then you will increase your strike rate greatly.

I have a lot of tipster information and will only follow the top 30% of them now. This cuts out a lot of the meetings where you hit nothing.

Good Luck

[dingoboy]

not sure what your saying there wesmip,
today port race 1, radio tab selects 8,12,5, ian h selects 6,8,2. Do you mean that radio tab selections are done by differant people? I have noticed that radio tab and nsw tab "selections" are the same
Gary

[Sportz]

The Unitab website lists two sets of selections for some meetings. One is a specialist tipster that works for Radiotab. (Today, for example, Ian Humphries at Port Macquarie and Warren Huntly at Wangaratta)

The other tips, called "Radiotab Tips" are simply the tips of the racecaller at each track, and you're right, some have better records than others. In most (but not all) cases, it's the same tipster as that listed on the NSW Tab or Sky Channel websites.

Today, the tipsters would be:
Tony Wode (Town)
Damian Seaton (P.Mac)
Rick McIntosh (Wang)

Another point I must make is that unfortunately, you can not absolutely rely on 100% accuracy with those "Radiotab tips". Whoever it is that puts the tips up on the website has actually made a few mistakes over the years. Just last week, a real roughie (number 2) was supposedly tipped on top in one race, but I checked on another website and it was really supposed to be number 6 or something. I wonder how many people were fooled by this and put number 2 on, thinking it was great value for a top selection.

[Stix]

The Unitab website lists two sets of selections for some meetings. One is a specialist tipster that works for Radiotab. (Today, for example, Ian Humphries at Port Macquarie and Warren Huntly at Wangaratta)

The other tips, called "Radiotab Tips" are simply the tips of the racecaller at each track, and you're right, some have better records than others. In most (but not all) cases, it's the same tipster as that listed on the NSW Tab or Sky Channel websites.

Today, the tipsters would be:
Tony Wode (Town)
Damian Seaton (P.Mac)
Rick McIntosh (Wang)(if you haven't done any form or analysis yourself, then......) Just follow Brendan Tupper.......

[Sportz]

I agree.

[dingoboy]

is he a good one ?

[Sportz]

Yes. He's one of the specialist tipsters that works for Radiotab. He does some Victorian meetings.

[dingoboy]

just had a quick look at sale 5th feb,....he does do alright,...bugger, back to the drawing board.

[Sportz]

Have a bit of a look at this thread:

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/showthread.php?t=12326&page=1

[dingoboy]

interesting, well done sportz.
do you know if the figures wesmip showed ie -17% were tab figures with their 18% odd take out, if one used fixed odds the thing looks a bit more respectable.

[Sportz]

I assumed it was TAB figures, but not sure.

[Top Rank]

Hi Dingoboy,

Just a question, it may be a little off the topic, I apologise.
You said the TABQ ratings get roughly 50% winners. Is that in there top 3 selections?
If this is the case, do you, or does anyone think that getting the winner 50% of the time in three selections is a good strike rate, or maybe I should say an acceptable strike rate.

Just a question for my own reference.

Thanks

[dingoboy]

Sportz,

if one was to take the approx 30 % an 2.77, thats not break even at flat stakes, but a bit of safe staking may turn a profit ? like BW says, 111,222,33? I havnt the data nor the experience to know but it is some angle.

Hi Top Rank,
Mate, its only something ive just started looking at, but as i said i dont have a data base to check so its one page at a time, one week at a time but its round the 50 %. thats the radio tab first three selections.
I recon if you maybe saved on the two first selection and bet the third, 50% should in my books be ok, one would probabally need to "dutch" them but with fixed odds or best fluctuation (god love it), not the ever changing tab odds.

Two runners though from what i have looked at seems to work, the first two selections split the bet half half, when one of the first two radio tab selection is lower than 2, back it outright, lose,...well,.....gulp,....double up,....ouch !

Dont know,
dingo

[wesmip1]

Wow this topic took off ...

So lets get ot some answers :

You can find out who is tipping each location at 2ky's website.

Dingoboy, the odds I posted were Unitab prices only. Best Tote and/or Betfair is probably slightly better.

Oh and Brendan is by far the most consistent tipper I have found. His top 2 picks will usually hold the winner.

Hope that helps.

[Sportz]

You can find out who is tipping each location at 2ky's website.


Most times, but not always. I think 2ky uses Alan Thomas in Brisbane and Hilton Donaldson in SA, don't they? Radiotab doesn't use those tipsters.

[Stix]

quiet often taken the 3 tips in an exacta (or tri with field for third) gives some nice results....

[wesmip1]

Sportz,

You may be right about that .. I would need to check.

Good Luck.

[Top Rank]

Thanks for the reply Dingo, some food for thought.

[dingoboy]

top Rank,

Have a look at Pt Macquarie today, nice earner race 4, 50%s/r so far also, this is where i recon there would be some profit, at 50 % s/r, we can sit back and wait for the juicier fish to come along.
The thing opened fixed odds with ias at 17, 10.8 unitab, early bird gets those worms !
Knowing my luck, it will all change tomorrow

[KennyVictor]

Take a look at yourselves will you. Have you no pride? You're grovelling around in the scraps of other peoples selections. Have you given up trying to pick the best horse yourselves? You know all the other wannabee punters are overbetting these superstar handicapper's first selections and even their second best so you're targetting the left overs, trying to make a profit out of proper handicappers third choices.
Invent a system of your own, use what skills you have and feel the pride of conquering the odds if and when you pick a winner. If you're not good enough to beat the odds take a hammering like the rest of us, lick your wounds and try harder next time.
Now someone start a proper thread !!!

KV

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif :-)

[Sportz]

"Last edited by KennyVictor : Today at 09:56 PM. Reason: Added a smile 'cause people never seem to be able to tell when I'm joking."

Yeah, glad you added that bit. Had me guessing.

So, you WERE actually joking then???

[KennyVictor]

So, you WERE actually joking then???
About 85% joking I guess :-).

Each to his own and if it works why knock it but I have to say I wouldn't get much pleasure backing someone elses tips. It's the challenge of working out the winner for myself that keeps me interested.
I just added a bit of colour for a reaction but then chickened out and added a smile. I disgust myself, set up a good controversial post then spoil it with a soft a rsed smile. No fibre at all, wimpy grovelling garbage - whoops there I go again.

[Stix]

About 85% joking I guess :-).

Each to his own and if it works why knock it but I have to say I wouldn't get much pleasure backing someone elses tips. It's the challenge of working out the winner for myself that keeps me interested.
I just added a bit of colour for a reaction but then chickened out and added a smile. I disgust myself, set up a good controversial post then spoil it with a soft a rsed smile. No fibre at all, wimpy grovelling garbage - whoops there I go again........ yes good luck to them, but for those willing to post on this forum.... even more fortitude to them....

[Bhagwan]

If one wanted to try the 4/1 divisor over 2 horses a race , one could use the target betting progran below.

http://www.ozracetools.com/index.php

The 50% SR with the radio TAB selections top 3 is about 5 points better than the average tipster based on 2 years results.
50% is a strong SR especially some of the prices it manages pull.

The Tipsters poll in the Weekend Australian has a Top 3- 55% SR and its
Top 2 has a 45% SR. often at the shorter end of town for its divs.
45% is also the SR for 1st & 2nd TAB Favs at jump time.

[dingoboy]

Hi Bhagwan,

Been there before and use their dutch calculator, top site.
Cant save the programme to "c" drive so it works of line though, usually when the races are on ive got three internet screens up and dont wont a fourth, i might stick with my crude excel "knock up".
went through tonnes of data last night to the we hours on unitab and back posts re this, some inteesting stuff !
As ive said, i recon with the top two unitab, get fixed odds for win,cant bet it on the tabs, divide by two runners and use this in divisor, if you can get 5 and 6 fixed, that would turn a profit at 40-45 % SR do you think ??

??

Dingo

[Sportz]

Good start from Brendan Tupper with his 2nd tip getting up at $13 in the first. :)

[Stix]

Good start from Brendan Tupper with his 2nd tip getting up at $13 in the first. :)
Nice exotics as well..... Tips were 10-4-11
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 bgColor=#ffffff border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width="15%">
MR 01
Ballarat

</TD><TD noWrap align=left width="30%">4- Blue Lago
10- Montfort
5- Bretton Woods


</TD><TD noWrap align=right width="5%">$13.30




</TD><TD noWrap align=right width="5%">$4.20
$1.30
$5.50


</TD><TD noWrap align=left width="15%">Qin 4-10
Exa 4-10
Tri 4-10-5
Ffr 4-10-5-8

</TD><TD noWrap align=right width="5%">$17.50
$61.60
$1,118.90
$7,159.10</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Sportz]

Brendan Tupper's not doing so well at Yarra Valley so far today, but the racecaller's tips (Radiotab tips) are.

[wesmip1]

Sportz,

Got to give him one off day every so often.

[marcus25]

About 85% joking I guess :-).

Each to his own and if it works why knock it but I have to say I wouldn't get much pleasure backing someone elses tips. It's the challenge of working out the winner for myself that keeps me interested.

Hi KV!
Stuff the challenge, I wouldn't mind betting on other's tips if I could make money out of it. Heaven knows I bought enough systems, and paid for tips that never turned a profit in my early years of punting.
I still would prefere to pay for it, instead of working out my own ratings if I could be sure it were profitable.
After all, we all depend on experts in many ways, in our daily lives like plumbers sparkies etc. and it seems to work out OK.
As I stated in one of my posts, I am in it for the money only, (and touch wood I am doing fine), someone said on an other thread that he was losing but it doesn't matter to him because he is on a good wicket work wise. I find that strange. I thought the idea was to win!??
Cheers

[KennyVictor]

Stuff the challenge, I wouldn't mind betting on other's tips if I could make money out of it. As I stated in one of my posts, I am in it for the money only, (and touch wood I am doing fine), someone said on an other thread that he was losing but it doesn't matter to him because he is on a good wicket work wise. I find that strange. I thought the idea was to win!??
CheersHi Marcus,
This guy is like my Dad, who is only a dollar bet guy but does it for the fun of having a bet. He (my Dad) knows he's going to lose long term but the occasional outsider gives him something to smile about. Like I say I'm in it for the challenge because at this stage of my punting career (about 2 years in) I don't honestly think I'm going to make enough money to cover the time I spend programming, collecting data etc. I just love the challenge of the biggest numbers puzzle I've ever taken on.
My first post, although more in fun than anything, was rooted in a the belief that the way to win is not to use tipsters work - for many reasons. I imagine tipsters come and go so you learn to rely on them and they dissappear, I doubt they would be giving their best tips away if they were the path to riches, etc. etc. much like the reasons people wouldn't sell a crash hot system.
Like you though, if I could buy some great ratings that guaranteed me winning heaps of cash I'd do that and stuff the challenge.
I suppose what I started out trying to say here was there are countless ways to attack the punt and best of luck to anyone with their chosen method.

Looking at Sportz recent post about Tupper being off and Radio tab on today maybe this thread should be dedicated to working out a system to decide which tipsters day it is to win. Let's see the second letter of fRiday is the same as the first letter of Radiotab and tomorrow is sAturday....

I'd better stop now or I'll have to start adding smiles again.

KV

[marcus25]

Like I say I'm in it for the challenge because at this stage of my punting career (about 2 years in) I don't honestly think I'm going to make enough money to cover the time I spend programming, collecting data etc. I just love the challenge of the biggest numbers puzzle I've ever taken on.
My first post, although more in fun than anything, was rooted in a the belief that the way to win is not to use tipsters work - for many reasons. I imagine tipsters come and go so you learn to rely on them and they dissappear, I doubt they would be giving their best tips away if they were the path to riches, etc. etc. much like the reasons people wouldn't sell a crash hot system.
Like you though, if I could buy some great ratings that guaranteed me winning heaps of cash I'd do that and stuff the challenge.

Looking at Sportz recent post about Tupper being off and Radio tab on today maybe this thread should be dedicated to working out a system to decide which tipsters day it is to win. Let's see the second letter of fRiday is the same as the first letter of Radiotab and tomorrow is sAturday....

I'd better stop now or I'll have to start adding smiles again.

KV

KV!
Spot on KV. Why would they be giving their best tips away?
You know I spend my working days in front of the screen programming silly machines to do things, so you understand that the last thing I want to do in my spare time is to update my database, download results and do ratings.

I would much prefer to have someone send me some numbers and put money on it with the guarantee of making a profit.
Unfortunately that is not the case. I said I am doing OK on my ratings, and I DOOOO!
Why not full time punting then?
Any of you married with Children? have a mortgage? and most importantly, have a wife who does not treat money from the punt as ill begotten gain? Makes no difference how much work I put in to get the selections, it's still gambling as far as she is concerned. One day she will understand that it is not, I'm sure.
Now, I better stop because I don't know what sort of emoticons to add to an outpouring like this.
Good luck

[Sportz]

Well, Radiotab has recently introduced a new tipster, Julie Rowland. I'm pretty sure she's the first female tipster they've ever had. Anyway, she went okay on Friday at Quirindi and Canberra, but just look how she's gone today at Dubbo! Wow!!! :eek:

[marcus25]

Well, Radiotab has recently introduced a new tipster, Julie Rowland. I'm pretty sure she's the first female tipster they've ever had. Anyway, she went okay on Friday at Quirindi and Canberra, but just look how she's gone today at Dubbo! Wow!!! :eek:

Thank's Sportz will keep an eye it.

[Sportz]

She tipped all of the last 7 winners (one of them at $11), and the $22 winner of the first race was her 3rd tip!!! It's going to be damn hard to keep up that sort of performance!!!

[dingoboy]

Struth !!!!!!!!!, 7 fm 8

If she lived on the gold coast ( or had a post box there) she could start selling her tips,id buy the things at that rate !! with a record like that, she would sell thousands!

Would the "tabs" actually want someone that COULD find a winner tipping for them though ?

I guess they wouldnt care because to them it doesnt matter which one wins or looses, take your cut anyway.

I am going to watch this one,



...........wonder if she is married ?????????????

Dingo

[crash]

It seems tips rule here OK Kenny?
Your a bit short of support in your view of tipsters [their all over the show]. As far as the joy that comes from your own selections getting up, well it's a bit like catching your own fish. These guys just head for the nearest fish and chip shop for a deary old piece of whatever their selling :-)

Thought I better add the smile too Kenny. I'm not up to blueing too often nowadays. The ticker can't take it. I will say I'm always impressed by the zesty enthusiasm and new ideas and angles displayed by many here and the joy seems to come from that. A different approach and as valid as handicapping. I'm sure you agree.

[dingoboy]

now just a thought,
could we start a new thread,...with each tipsters results posted and the divies displayed, an average s/r and average odds, ?

what do you think, maybe keep it going for a few weeks and see.

[KennyVictor]

You're absolutely right as always crash. In fact I took my laptop into cashies today and they offered me $20 for it. I said it had a great handicapping system on it and they said make that 15. Anyway, I've got $15 in me old skyrocket and I'm just gagging to see what our Julie tips tomorrow. I'll be on it whatever it is.

KV

[crash]

Me too Kenny. We might be handicappers, but by god we ain't mugs !!

$15? Well with my outstanding 2nditus form lately [anyone want to buy a good place handicapping system?], I think my punting allowance from the brake is about $10 today, so your $5 up on me.

[crash]

Living in the bush, racing radio is very limited. I have to get it on-line mostly. I can get Sport 927 local radio [E. Gippsland Vic.] most days if the weather is OK !

This Julie babe, must on 2ky radio tab? What time [Vic. time] is she on and other tipsters? I'm not big on being plugged into computer headphones for long. a time would help. Thanks.

[Sportz]

No, not 2KY, Radiotab. You can listen to it on the Unitab website, and they have tips on from 9am each morning. That's 10am your time during daylight saving.

[crash]

Thanks a lot for that Sportz. 9.55am here. Just in time for todays tips.
I'm giving the old Handicapping a rest till Sat.

[Sportz]

The tipster in question, Julie Rowland, isn't on today.

[crash]

Interesting listening anyway. They did point out that a $1 all-up on Julie's 7 winners yesterday would have returned $2,000 [might drag the old time machine out of the shed].

[KennyVictor]

Thanks a lot for that Sportz. 9.55am here. Just in time for todays tips. I'm giving the old Handicapping a rest till Sat.and in the Form Study thread.

IGNORE TIPS !!!

Sorry Mate, I couldn't help myself.

KV

[crash]

Give a dog a bone and he will BITE it [of course I handicap the tips first] 8-)

Anyway, here is a tip for you: Video Hits in R7 Brisb. tomorrow. Stewards noted: Forced to run wide the whole trip last start [deliberate me thinks], way down in weight and a very significant Jockey change [G.Colless]. Tropical Express [same race] had a fair bit of interference last start. Back em both the odds will be there. Their both up a notch in class for this. Hell, go the exacta too. Look out for St. Nicco in R8. The bag of illness is on his feet [vet said put him down ages ago]. Watch out now he is actual in a race as he needs to pay his Vet bills !!!.

So what happed to our Julie ???? Never heard a word of how the girl is going.

[dingoboy]

Never mind julie,

Good ol' brendon did alright today.Got me home nicely in Sale race 7, the thing bolted in from outside.

Me thinks Julie is a "celebrity tipper", much like the celebrity poker rubbish thats on fox at the moment.

(i can see it now,...........two years from now when she, or him i guess,...is constantly tipping at 80 % some smart bottom will pick me for this).

must admitt though, i have been looking for her on unitab,. just interested, you know, just looking, i would never follow one of her/his tips.

Adelaide race 5 # 8 tomorrow,....here goes my holiday house ! 1unit win, 4 unit place. Then to help along the way, Adelaide race 7 #2,.....ssssshhhhh

[Sportz]

I think it's called "the pecking order". I have a funny feeling that Julie was actually only filling in while another more senior tipster was away sick for a few days. Well, it just happened that she went better than he ever has!!! Then, the guy that was tipping instead of her the following day, only managed to find one odds-on winner from 7 races!!! Hopefully, they'll give her another go in the future. They'd be mad not to.

[crash]

.....Then, the guy that was tipping instead of her the following day, only managed to find one odds-on winner from 7 races!!!

Anyone got a few food stamps to spare? How about some dog-ends to smoke? Wine dregs?

The next day after Julie [who I missed of course] was the day I thought I'd give the handicapping a rest and followed the tipster above. The whole 7 races !!!!

NEVVVVVERRRRRR AAAAAGAINNNNN BOYOS.

[Palmerston]

Hello guys

I think you'll find Julie will be tipping tomorrow and Monday on 4tab.

[Stix]

Hello guys

I think you'll find Julie will be tipping tomorrow and Monday on 4tab.Clearly the pressure from the Forum was tooo much for her yesterday.. ;)

See if she can "regroup" @ Scone today.....

[Bhagwan]

Mon 27th Feb
Using the system.
3 winners from 3 venues
$8.30,7.00,24.50