Real Deals Trifecta System

[Real Deal]

Guys i have been trialling a system of late with what i consider to be pretty good results.

Here is the criteria. I have to have the hot pot (under $3 normally) as my top pick and normally best bet of the day. The race cannot have more than 12 runners (for financial reasons), and unless i have inside information i will generally leave all country and 2 year old races alone.

Best bet x Field x Field trifecta for .50cents.


I have always been one to hide in the shadows but after this site going down hill (no one posting) lately i am going to start a thread.

Wish me luck boys!

[Real Deal]

Received a tip on the 6 in the 5th at Ballarat so here we go:

Ballarat Race 5

#6 x Field x Field = $21 for .50c

wont be posting everyday but wil only post these tips in this thread.

[Stix]

Good luck fella...... I'm on !! ;)

[Sportz]

Good luck with it.

Mav uses this idea, but he uses it on even larger fields. I would always be worried about the cost with fields bigger than about 10, when your horse HAS to win or else you get nothing.

[Stix]

Good luck with it.

Mav uses this idea, but he uses it on even larger fields. I would always be worried about the cost with fields bigger than about 10, when your horse HAS to win or else you get nothing.I think it is a confidence thing....... ;)

[Sportz]

Which is exactly why I probably wouldn't be doing it. :o

[Real Deal]

wish i started this thread yesterday. Got one of my best results to date.

sychophant(i think). Anyway, heard the horse was flying.


Tri paid $550 for $1. only cost $28 as well.

[marcus25]

Guys i have been trialling a system of late with what i consider to be pretty good results.

Here is the criteria. I have to have the hot pot (under $3 normally) as my top pick and normally best bet of the day. The race cannot have more than 12 runners (for financial reasons), and unless i have inside information i will generally leave all country and 2 year old races alone.

Best bet x Field x Field trifecta for .50cents.


I have always been one to hide in the shadows but after this site going down hill (no one posting) lately i am going to start a thread.

Wish me luck boys!

Hi Real Deal!
You mind if I run a test this weekend on past results and post the summary?
Cheers

[Real Deal]

no problems.

But i do not do it on any old favourite. I have to have the short priced favourite rated on top when i work out the race and also it would be my best bet of the day, i only plan on doing 1, 2 or 3 a day max when at metro tracks. Today is the loop hole cause i got a "tip".

I would be interested to know what happened if i did it to every short priced favourite though.

[Sportz]

sychophant(i think). Anyway, heard the horse was flying.


I didn't hear anything really, but it was a Commands filly trained by Hawkes and ridden by Beadman. What more do you need? :)

Certainly didn't have a trifecta though. Taking the field was just about the only way you could have got it.

[Ade]

Great system you got mate. I'll plunk $1 on this trifecta you got suggested on MR5 at Ballarat.

How much would that cost me?

Good luck to all that has invested. Good luck with your system real deal.

[Real Deal]

$42 for $1. Favourite backed off the planet.

[Stix]

doh...... always next race....... Geez the fav went well. Toyed with them a little bit... went when needed

[Sportz]

Well, it was a very easy trifecta to get, but it paid accordingly. :)

[Ade]

$42 for $1. Favourite backed off the planet.
hmmm even if it won and got up (number 6) I think I would of lost money, as the Dividend on WA TAB paid $18.80.

[Real Deal]

Well we have started off on the wrong foot.

1 selection

-$21.


I am sticking to metro meetings. Stay tuned.

[Stix]

Real

What are your expectaions for the system, based on your past experience?

I guess if you are betting on a "special" or in some instances a "tip", and also considering field-field strategy, then (IMHO) a strike rate of say 25 - 35% would be acceptable.

Surely a strike rate of around 30% would produce a profit... maybe Marcus's analysis will prove this to be true or otherwise.

Anyway, good luck and welcome to the "Cauldron" that is....."posting" on this Forum

[Real Deal]

Stix, With regards to past results and expectations i would say its fair to assume that a 50% strike rate is what i am after, Anything as low 33% may still provide a profit but when i'm selecting minimal horses who i think are the best winning chances over the whole card then i am hoping to hit more often than not.

[Real Deal]

Just 2 today at Flemington.

Race 1 Number 1 Flame of sydney

$20 for $1 unit

Race 2 Number 2 Anais

$20 for $1 unit.

Betting a full unit today due to field sizes.

[Merriguy]

Interesting thread, guys --- but I can't see you getting any big returns by backing the favourite with the field in races with only six starters :( The maths simply don't work out. The fields have to be bigger; or the standout has to be other than the favourite or near favourite.

[Stix]

Interesting thread, guys --- but I can't see you getting any big returns by backing the favourite with the field in races with only six starters :( The maths simply don't work out. The fields have to be bigger; or the standout has to be other than the favourite or near favourite.Think strike rate is the key...... it has to be.....!!

Granted, larger divy's in larger fields, but strike rate should compensate for that. The reliance on a few roughies to fill the placings is what has to tick it over.... I say good luck and I'm in for the ride..... ;)

[Real Deal]

Let's be honest, no matter what the facts say-any profit i will be happy with over a fair period of time. I have found barring the massive roughie roughie 2nd and 3rd where it pays quite well that the best results come when it is an even field, even though the favourite still wins-normally you can double or triple your outlay due to a few winning chances.

Guys time will tell, but i am going to try and see this one through till autmns end at least.

[Sportz]

Mav will tell you about it. This is the way he bets. Takes his top pick to win from the field and just hopes roughies come home in the placings.

[Stix]

Mav will tell you about it. This is the way he bets. Takes his top pick to win from the field and just hopes roughies come home in the placings....... and the winner ;)

[Imagele]

Let's be honest, no matter what the facts say-any profit i will be happy with over a fair period of time. I have found barring the massive roughie roughie 2nd and 3rd where it pays quite well that the best results come when it is an even field, even though the favourite still wins-normally you can double or triple your outlay due to a few winning chances.

Guys time will tell, but i am going to try and see this one through till autmns end at least.
Should the favourite win these 2 races it will be interesting to compare the exacta dividend with the trifecta dividend.
i.e. the fav./field exacta- $4-00 unit.=$20-00

[Stix]

Should the favourite win these 2 races it will be interesting to compare the exacta dividend with the trifecta dividend.
i.e. the fav./field exacta- $4-00 unit.=$20-00I'm an exacta man - hence why I opened a UNITAB account (Im a Victorian), where (as I stated elsewhere on this forum) the divys for exacta consitently out perform that of TAB and S-TAB.

Some unbelievable :eek: examples of exacta results:

28 Dec Cobram Harness bet was R7 10-2,9,11

S-TAB $ 174.1
NSW TAB $92.0
UNITAB $959.8




12 Jan Geelong Harness bet was R8 5-2,6,7


S-TAB $133.8
NSW TAB $158.2
UNITAB 419.1

An example of where the exacta outstriped the tri was on:


28 Dec Cobram Harness bet was R7 10-2,9,11
Exacta R7 10-2,9,11 for $1 unit - Cost = $3.00 Return $959.8 ;) POT = 31,993%
Trifecta R7 10-2,9,11-Field for $1 - Cost = $27 Return $1585.6 POT = 5,872%
So if you had the exacta 9 times (9 x $3 = $27) the return would of been $8,638.2


12 Jan Geelong Harness bet was R8 5-2,6,7
Exacta R8 5-2,6,7 for $1 unit - Cost = $3.00 Return $419.10 ;) POT = 13,903%
Trifecta R8 5-2,6,7-Field for $1 - Cost = $24 Return $1830.4 POT = 7,626%
So if you had the exacta 8 times (8 x $3 = $24) the return would of been $3352.8
And yes I was on the end of these little rippers.... ;)

[Tubby]

I too love exactas Stix and have been "lured" in by some similar results to the examples you have given. However I also find (and this is purely anecdotal) that there is just as many (if not more) races where the exacta is a bit disappointing. I sometimes wonder if I would be better just putting the equivalent money into a boxed quinella (i.e. a greater number of units).

[Stix]

I too love exactas Stix and have been "lured" in by some similar results to the examples you have given. However I also find (and this is purely anecdotal) that there is just as many (if not more) races where the exacta is a bit disappointing. I sometimes wonder if I would be better just putting the equivalent money into a boxed quinella (i.e. a greater number of units).I must admit I'm more often suprised by the divy than disappointed... and helped by the fact that UNITAB still out performs the others....

Boxed Quinellas would certainly improve my strike rate which is currently 12.6% to about 28%, but would sacrifice divy return I reckon....... However the av. Div of $69.9 makes up for that and 205% POT soothes any residual worries ;)

[Ade]

Good luck with this selections Real Deal. I'll put a dollar on those as well, they do look good chances.

Best of luck!

[Real Deal]

Hmmmm. Not the best of starts for my first collect. will post results after next race.

[Tubby]

Boxed Quinellas would certainly improve my strike rate which is currently 12.6% to about 28%, but would sacrifice divy return I reckon....... However the av. Div of $69.9 makes up for that and 205% POT soothes any residual worries ;)They are nice figures.

[Sportz]

Well RD, you managed to get what will probably be the 2 smallest trifectas all day!!! Always the danger in such small fields.

[Real Deal]

thats the risk i am willing to take. Today only helped the strike rate. hehe.

[Real Deal]

Just 2 today at Flemington.

Race 1 Number 1 Flame of sydney

$20 for $1 unit

Race 2 Number 2 Anais

$20 for $1 unit.

Betting a full unit today due to field sizes.


Outlay $61
Return $24.80
Strike rate: 2/3


Still early days. After a couple more races i will start to post percentages.

[Mr ed]

I've tried this one heaps of times, even started doing it with the first four whilst i was in Darwin, you get the occasional great result but over all it ended up winning more by just backing the horse to win. If you can get a 50% win strike rate and then find the best odds possible for your investment, surely you should make a profit. Also don't like the mug money aspect some horses simply can't fill a place, like Zenno Goshu tomorow in the Aus Stakes, it costs you an extra $110 with him in and $90 without him, surely he is not worth your hard earned $20.

Good luck Real Deal hope you snag some monster tri's.

[the freek]

Stix, are you standing out your top selection to win in the Exacta's or do you also take it to run 2nd ?

[Real Deal]

Guys I am taking ebverything on board but i just want to see this one through for a little bit and hopefully prove over some time that it can be profitable.

Todays Bets.

Syd R1 #2 Crums
Cost $21 for 50c

Syd R4 #2 Pizza
Cost $21 for 50c

Syd R5 #3 Collate
Cost $36 for 50c

Melb R5 #1 Demerger
Cost $28 for 50c

Total Outlay today: $106

[luv2bet]

Good stuff real, showing a profit today.

[marcus25]

Surely a strike rate of around 30% would produce a profit... maybe Marcus's analysis will prove this to be true or otherwise.

Sorry to disappoint you Stix, I ran the whole gamut of combinations ie. first fav. with the field sec. fav with the field etc. combined with starting prices and number of runners, (like less than $2 and less than 7 runners etc.) and the result is: as I expected, UTTER disaster.
If it only were so easy??
I am sorry but nothing beats rating!
My opinion only of course, so no debate here.
Good luck all.

[Real Deal]

Guys I am taking ebverything on board but i just want to see this one through for a little bit and hopefully prove over some time that it can be profitable.

Todays Bets.

Syd R1 #2 Crums
Cost $21 for 50c

Syd R4 #2 Pizza
Cost $21 for 50c

Syd R5 #3 Collate
Cost $36 for 50c

Melb R5 #1 Demerger
Cost $28 for 50c

Total Outlay today: $106

Today's results

Crums WINNER but loser.
Cost 21 returned $4.85

Collate WINNER
cost 21 Returned $151.95

Today outlay $106
Today return $156.80

Total Outlay $167
Total Return $181.60
Strike Rate 4/7

[Stix]

Stix, are you standing out your top selection to win in the Exacta's or do you also take it to run 2nd ?G'day The Freek

I take Straight-out exacta's my selection for first only and then 3 for second.

I works for me, I know everyone has their own (preferred) bet type and way of punting, so whatever works I say....

Good Luck.

[Stix]

Sorry to disappoint you Stix, I ran the whole gamut of combinations ie. first fav. with the field sec. fav with the field etc. combined with starting prices and number of runners, (like less than $2 and less than 7 runners etc.) and the result is: as I expected, UTTER disaster.
If it only were so easy??
I am sorry but nothing beats rating!
My opinion only of course, so no debate here.
Good luck all.
Marcus

Interesting comments.

Guess testing on a "mass" data source would ultimately see it fail, I guess - from Real's point of view - not all selections will be the $2 hot pot, it maybe a whisper/rating/inside knowledge... yatta yatta... or whatever selection method he uses and produces value that way... I don't know!....

.....we will have to see what selections he has as his stand-out....

Good Luck Real....... we ALL need it... ;)

[Real Deal]

Tomorrows bets at this stage will be:

Aqua Damore
God's Own
Lad of the Manor.

Some of you may turn your nose up at this but i am willing to put this threads life on the line and say that if all 3 win i am guaranteeing a profit!!
(with current fields-will re assess after scratchings.)

Yep, you got it right-If ALL 3 win and i don't show a profit for the day there will never be another trifecta tip from me on this thread.

[marcus25]

Tomorrows bets at this stage will be:
Some of you may turn your nose up at this but

Hi Real Deal!
I hope you don't include me in the "some". I ran the test through ALL races with fav as a standout, so there was no question, it would lose.
But if you have selections that happen to be favs, with a good chance of winning, I can't see why it should not be profitable. That's what I meant by saying "nothing beats rating!", in my opinion rating includes tips, hints etc. after all, they all have some valid info behind them.

Hope you snare all of them today and the next day and ......
Cheers

[Stix]

Tomorrows bets at this stage will be:

Aqua Damore
God's Own
Lad of the Manor.

Some of you may turn your nose up at this but i am willing to put this threads life on the line and say that if all 3 win i am guaranteeing a profit!!
(with current fields-will re assess after scratchings.)

Yep, you got it right-If ALL 3 win and i don't show a profit for the day there will never be another trifecta tip from me on this thread.
Good Luck Real

But keep posting son!

I think that the missing link people (turning their nose up) are missing is the fact that not all your selections are hot pots..... plain and simple.... therefore value is be had... just need the strike rate to kick it along !

Good Luck Fella :)

[Ade]

Yes, keep posting Real Deal. It doesn't matter if they are outsiders or hot favourites, as long as you can pick the winners. That is what we strive for, to pick the winners no matter what their price may be.

Winners are grinners, and judging by those three selections you'll be grinning tomorrow evening.

Good luck!

[Real Deal]

Aqua Damore-Field-field
$45 for .50c

God's Own-Field-Field
$42 for $1

Lad Of The Manor-field-field
$36 for .50c

Total Outlay $123

[Sportz]

Bad luck, mate. I hope you didn't actually go through with the bets after that heavy storm struck???

Once all that rain came, Apache Cat and Our Smoking Joe came right into the picture. Was amazed with the great odds on both of them.

[Real Deal]

Here's the thing guys. I posted my tips on the morning of the race but as i was at the races didnt get a chance to withdraw my selections and therefore i did not outlay the bets. But as i did not post that all bets were off for the guys that have been following my tips i have nbo choice but to add the days losses to the total.

So far total outlay: $290
Total Return: $181.60
Strike Rate: 4/10

[Real Deal]

Just one for today. I have been on this horse previously so it may come as no surprise.

Sandown Race 3 #1 Anais-field-field
Cost-$28 for .50c

[Real Deal]

No good yesterday with anais getting run down in the last few strides. Lets see if we can get a couple of biggies today.

Melb Race 2
Ready-Field-Field
$36 for .50c

Melb Race 5
All Bar one-Field-Field
$28 for .50c

Melb Race 7
Serenade Rose-Field-Field
$36 for .50c

Syd Race 6
Regal Cheer-field -Field
$21 for .50c

Total outlay for day-$121
Current Balance ($136.40)

[Real Deal]

2 out of 4 today guys.

All bar one WINNER
paid $43.15 for .50c

Serenade rose WINNER
paid $197.70 for .50c

Total Outlay: $439
Total Return: $422.45

Profit/Loss: ($16.55)
Strike rate:6/15

[Real Deal]

Race 4 Number 3
Time Matters-Field-Field
Cost $15 for .50c

[maverick1993]

Hi Real Deal..

first time i've read this thread and i like your way of thinking...
I take it you rating the race your betting in..if so and especially if the field is only small you might try something like this

your selection or banker
plus the next 2 or even 3 next rated selections on the 2nd and 3rd lines ..
also have a level stake..
say 100
if the selection and the field for a 1/2 costs 50
id then have another tri with my selection and my next 2 rated selctions
for 25 ..wich costs 50

100 total..

this way you have both scenarios covered...

this is the way i do it ..although twice as much on Brissie racing and its shown a huge profit...the strikerate isn't fantastic but then again i rarely back favourites and never short favs...but the monster tris i have gotten more than make up for the run of outs..

Good luck with the system...its good to see someone having a go at trifectas...
the same system can work for 1st4's as well :)

[Real Deal]

Understand totally what you say, i am nearly striking better for my selection to come 2nd so i am running another system outside of this thread and website to see if there is anything to show there.

While i do rate the races for me to post it as a part of the system on this thread i generally have to have a clear selection on top and therefore sometimes come up with nothing but a jumbled mess with positions outside my top selection (i rate all horses at 3 different areas and generally tough to find a clear 2nd and 3rd pick-thats why i do selected races only).

[Real Deal]

4 Today-

Satin Robes-Field-Field
Cost $15 for .50c

Byway-Field-Field
$45 for 50c

God's Own-Field-Field
$28 for .50c

Collate-Field-Field
$36 for .50c