F1 2006

[Mofo]

In this F1 betting thread I'm going to start with 100 units and keep track of my results. I'm not an expert gambler - just a punter, but I've had success each year I've bet on F1 (last 4 years regularly) but not tracked the results exactly. No doubt this year that I do something like this in front of everybody I'll have a losing year... but that's ok, I've got a truck load of excuses ready if that turns out to be the case http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Next week they have some serious testing at Barcelona, and each year this gives a pretty good indication of who's doing well and who's got some work to do. By who I mean which team, not driver.

Liable to change (a lot), here's my list of teams in order of fastness so far:

1) Renault
2) Honda
3) Ferrari
4) McLaren
5) Williams
6) Toyota
7) Red Bull
8) Toro Rosso
9) BMW Sauber
10) MF1
11) Super Aguri

Interestingly Renault and Honda are the quickest teams now, but it is likely that Ferrari and McLaren will finish the year the strongest as they have more resources to put into development of their cars throughout the season. So futures betting is a nightmare.

The big factor for Ferrari is Bridgestone tyres, which have improved from last year. They must continue to improve for Ferrari to show their potential.

This is likely to be the closest championship for years. We could see 7+ manufacturers on the podium this year, and 4+ on the top step. MF1 and Super Aguri are the only no hoper teams this year.

Centrebet have opened their F1 prices for winning the championshop today, so today I place my first bets.

Honda look good value - they appear to be considered the 4th best team by Centrebet. Button is paying $13 and Barrichello is at $21. I'm spending 7 units on Button (possible payout 91 units).

Renault are stong and Fisichella is no mug, so at $21 that looks like value too. 3 units on him for a possible 61. At $3.75 Alonso looks borderline value to retain his title. However with both Ferrari and McLaren admitting they need to improve their current car to win the championship he's probably no.1 right now. Therefore 4 units on him (pays 14) just to cover me if neither of the longer shots get home.

OB 100
To win champtionship:
1) Button 7 @ $13 (91).
2) Fisichella 3 @ $21 (63)
3) Alonso 4 @ $3.75 (14)
CB 86

[moeee]

I remember you from last year.
You were vrey clever
I will follow you tips but will make a unit at $2

Cheers

[Mofo]

I've looked at the other popular Australian online betting shops and have decided Centrebet is not really the best for Formula 1, their prices are ok, but their range of options isn't so good - they don't have Constructor championship betting for example. So from now I'll use IAS, Sportingbet, Sportsbet, Centrebet or TABSportsbet. All of 'em. Same as what's used in the betting comp.

The quotes in my first post are still available, but Sportingbet has better prices on Fisichella at $26 and Alonso at $4. That won't last long. Neither will Renault winning the constructers championship at $3.80 and I've decided to plonk a few on that now while I can.

OB 86

Contructors championship:
- Renault 6 @ $3.80 (22.8)

CB 80

The average available price on Honda and Renault has gone down over the last week, and Ferrari has blown out a bit as anticipated.

McLaren has improved their car a lot over the last week or so, seemingly improving both reliability and speed. This isn't so good for our bets but this was always the danger. We're betting for value and sometimes that means not betting on the deserved favourite. I think the McLaren value will improve anyway. Renault still look very strong and Honda continue to look good too, so I'm not worried.

IAS has put their prices out for the first race at Bahrain but they seem to agree with me in their form assessment of the teams (Honda is a bigger favourite than Ferrari) so better value will come from others hopefully.

I'll be on Alonso to win at the best price possible and Fisichella for the podium. Will post my bets when I make 'em.

[Mofo]

Here are my bets for Bahrain. Could be more to come, after practice or qualifying, but we'll see...

OB 80 Units

Sportingbet
Fisichella Podium (top3) 5 Units @ $4
This is a very good price - highly recommended

Sportingbet
Alonso Win 2 Units @ $3.60

Sportsbet
Liuzzi Top 8; 1 unit @ $8.00T
Toro Rosso team may surprise. They are the only team running restricted V10's this year, many of the V8 teams are compaining they aren't resticted enough. If nothing else they will be reliable and so this is a good bet too.

Centrebet
Barrichello Pole 1 units @ $12
Button in the other honda is a likely contender too, but Barrichello is a much better price. I'm guessing Honda will be more likely to adopt a 3 stop strategy than their nearest rivals because evidence so far suggests they don't look after their tyres as well as Renault, McLaren and Ferrari. This will mean less fuel in the tanks for qualifying meaning a better lap time... that's the theory anyway.

Sportsbet
Montoya vs. Button: Button 2 units @ $2.00
Montoya is $1.95 in same head to head at Sportingbet, but Button in a reliable Honda is my pick.

CB 69

Lets go Renault!!!

[Mofo]

Fisichella Podium (top3) 5 Units @ $4
Lose: Retirement.
Fisi suffered mechanical problems in qualifying which got worse during the race, eventually leading to his retirement. With a more reliable car this might have been a better result. That's motor sport... it was a good bet - it just didn't get there.


Alonso Win 2 Units @ $3.60
Win 7.2 units.
Not surprised Alonso won, very surprised how close it was and who was second (M Schumacher).


Liuzzi Top 8; 1 unit @ $8.00
Lose: Finished 11th.
Didn't quite have the pace in the end. This price came in to $3.50 before qualifying.


Barrichello Pole 1 units @ $12
Lose: Qualified 5th.
Never really looked likely.


Montoya vs. Button: Button 2 units @ $2.00
Win: 4 units.
Button came home in 4th edging out Montoya. Montoya was $1.75 favourite everywhere before qualifying.


Net result for Bahrain: +0.2 Units.


Current balance 80.2


Futures

Contructors championship: Renult 6 @ $3.80
Bet looks Good. Early days but Renault on equal top.

Drivers Champtionshop:
- Button 7 @ $13
Bet looks OK. Button was in to $9 before Bahrain. Had a good showing in Bahrain finishing 4th so that won't change too much.
- Fisichella 3 @ $21
Bet looks Not Good. Fisi had a shocker. Not his fault, he had some kind of mechanical problem with the car and failed to finish. Still, a poor result.
- Alonso 4 @ $3.75
Bet looks OK. Alonso won, so he's on top and deserved favourite. I say the bet only looks 'OK' because the competition this year is tougher than ever.

[Mofo]

Oh boy, this is tough. When everyone is running strong and only 1 race and some pre-season testing to go on to assess form, how do you pick a winner? I have half a mind just to keep my hands in my pockets this weekend and not bet on the Malaysian GP at all. Fortune has it, however, that my mind has 2 halves and the other half is a drunken crack addled whore mongering mofo, who can't resist a bet every now and then.

I've been in the tank over the past few days, deprogramming myself, breaking everything down, forgetting all I know and everything I think I know about F1. [A pause for perfect Zen]. Then building that knowledge back up again from scratch with no fear nor favour. I'm not convinced that it's worked. There are too many unknown variables. I could provide very solid reasoning for any of up to 5 drivers to win in Malaysia, and another reason why all the reasons provided for each driver is total ****.

Oh well anyway... finally, after each knowable factor has been considered on it's merits and weighted against the odds, for better or worse, I have reached a conclusion:

Sportsbet
Winner
M Schumacher 3 units @ $4.00

In Bahrain Michael proved Ferrari are strong. Williams proved Bridgestone are strong. That's a winning combination.

Sportsbet
top 3
Fisichella 4 units @ $4.25

Fisi has been victim of bad luck over the last 12 months. If he is given a reliable car he will perform. This remains a good bet.

IAS
head to head: Rosberg vs. Webber
Rosberg 2 units @ $1.95

Battle of the Williams'. Rosberg was quicker than Webber in Bahrain. This rookie is smelling a lot like Raikkonen and Alonso to me. A genuine potential future champion.

CB 71.2



Last week I was at a bucks weekend, this weekend I'm attending a wedding and the following GP I'm at another wedding. So that means I have limited time to post here at the moment, but I'll do what I can with the time I've got and if possible I'll add some post qualy bets. Otherwise...

Go Schcumacher (and Fisichella)!!!

... and to a lesser extent Rosberg

[Mofo]

After a busy weekend going on harbour cruises, weddings and club cricket semi-finals (yes, I've been a busy boy) I settled in on my couch prepared to watch the Malaysian GP. I thought lying down would be more comfy. It was.

2 and a half hours later I awoke to the sound of the Italian national anthem and saw Fisichella spraying champaine over his team mate Alsonso and Honda driver Jenson Button, who took 3rd.

I was completely unable to follow any part of the Grand Prix weekend and so will pore over the results and news articles over the next few days to catch up with the details.

The results were good, thanks to Fisichella, and it was almost a perfect result for futures bets.


OB 71.2 Units

M Schumacher 3 units @ $4.00 to win
Bet result: lost.
Schumacher lost 10 places on the grid due to an engine change so this bet had no hope after that.

Fisichella 4 units @ $4.25 to top3
Bet result: win (17 Units)
Qualified on pole and raced strongly to win comfortably. It will be interesting to see if Fisi continues to offer any value for the podium in Melbourne.

Rosberg 2 units @ $1.95 to beat Webber
Bet result: lost
Engine failure forced the young charger out although Webber was in front when he retired.

CB 88.2 Units (+20 in futures)


***Net result for Malaysia: +8 units***


Futures

Contructors championship:
- Renult 6 @ $3.80
Bet looks Very Good. Early days but Renault in front and looking strong.

Drivers Champtionshop:
- Button 7 @ $13
Bet looks Good. Button 2nd in championship with 11 points.
- Fisichella 3 @ $21
Bet looks Good. Fisi 4th in championship with 10 points.
- Alonso 4 @ $3.75
Bet looks Good. Alonso 1st in championshop with 18 points.

[punta]

took your fisichella tip mofo and put some hard earnt on him, good bet keep it up mate

[Mofo]

Thanks punta, I'll endevour to do so :)


And just by the way - to everybody - if any folks out there have opinions on the bets in this thread, or anything F1 in general then let me hear it! It's always good to hear other POV's.

Cheers,

[Mofo]

4 Units on Alonso to win Australian GP @ $3.15 at Sportsbet.


More bets and comments following shortly...

[Mofo]

Again, I'm very rushed posting this but here's another bet.

Sportingbet
5 Units Fisi v MSchu hd2hd: Fisichella @ $2.10

This is better value than the $2.50 on offer for a Fisichella podium. Cooler tempretures than Bahrain and Malaysia mean Bridgestone (Ferrari and Williams) may not run so good. If it rains then Bridgestone may dominate, but that's not forcast and I'm always afraid that prices may change so I'm getting on it now.

[Mofo]

Renault are favourites and I expect they'll finish 1-2 again, but this time with Alonso taking the chequered flag. They have been quickest all season and the chicanes around Albert Park should suit their traction control, as will the fact that it's a bit cooler in Melbourne than usual.

The main challengers to Renault will again be McLaren, Ferrari and Honda. Ferrari especially have been making noises and generally being confident. Word around the campfire has it that Bridgestone have brought their best ever tyre compound for cooler temperatures to Melbourne. What that exactly means is anybody's guess. I'm guessing they are still not as good as the Michelin's of the other top teams.

McLaren had a good test since the last GP so their relative silence heading into this weekend I'm reading as quiet confidence. Heading into the 3rd race this season we still haven't seen Raikkonen show us his full potential. They'll challenge for a podium I would think, but their short price is too short in my opinion so I'm keeping away.

Honda are quick, but not as quick as Renault and this will remain the same, at least for this race. I think, unlike McLaren and Ferrari, Honda have shown us what they can do with their package. The question remaining for me is, is it good enough to beat McLaren and Ferrari?

I doubt very much that Williams have enough to finish on the podium, but 2 finishes in the points is definitely possible. I'm sure Webber will be determined to 1) beat his team mate and 2) finish his home GP in the points 3) not crash (in that order).

Of the others I'll mention BMW Sauber. They haven't qualified well at all, but their race pace has been stronger than those around them. I fancy one of them, probably Heidfeld, to get a top 8 points finish. They must beat Toyota though, who are also talking confidently mainly due to their new Bridgestone tyres. Toyota will at some point in the season become competitive - I'm sure of it. I don't know when that might be, but I don't think it will be here and now.

Here are the bets made so far, and another one:

OB 88.2 Units

Sportsbet
Winner
Alonso 4 Units @ $3.15*

Sportingbet
Fisichella v M Schumacher
Fisi 5 Units @ $2.10

Centrebet
Top8
Heidfeld 2 Units @ $3.00

CB 77.2 Units


* Alsono to win $3.20 now on offer from Sportingbet


Again I'm off to a wedding this weekend and may not be able to post updates after practice or qualifying, but so be it. But I'm thinking of more on Heidfeld or Villeneuve after qualifying depending on where on the grid they are and their price, of course.

I'm hoping McLaren fail miserably because that would mean good things as far as future bets go.

Go Alonso !!!

... and somebody pot M Schumacer and McLaren for me

[punta]

hi mofo

great info again
i might take ur fisichella tip. he is a $2 for a podium finish on tabsportsbet and renault to be the winning team at $2.10 looks good

betfair are also offering whether the safety car will come out or not and its at $2.60 for yes. theres always some sort of carnage at melbourne

good luck to all

[Mofo]

Yeah, I agree the $2.10 for Renault winning is a good bet. I nearly included it amongst my "official" bets but I've got the drivers covered elsewhere so left it out.

Not sure about the safety car bet though. Good luck with it. There certainly has been carnage at Melbourne but I wonder if that's more coincidence than anything else.

First practice is on NOW, and I'm following that at the f1 website. I'm so naughty, I should be working.

[Mofo]

Great race. Fantastic result.


OB 77.2 Units

Alonso to win: 4 Units @ $3.15
winner
Pays 12.6

An easy win, in the end. Renault - Alonso especially - looks increasingly strong each race. I don't think we'll see Alonso paying $3.00+ in the near future.


Fisichella to beat M Schumacher: 5 Units @ $2.10
Winner
Pays 10.5

Fisi qualified 2nd and Schu in 10th so it was joy joy joy pre race. Then it was almost tear-up-your-ticket time after Fisi stalled on the grid and was sent to the back. Schumacher had a terrible first stint and safety cars helped Fisi catch right up to Schumacher before Fisi's first pit stop. Schumacher ran long and then showed some extra pace and all was lost again. Finally Schumacher seemingly overdrove his car and understeered into the wall coming into the main straight. Fisi completed the lap and the bet was then successful. He finished the race 5th.


Heidfeld top 8: 2 Units @ $3.00
Winner
Pays 6

A better than expected qualifying and a good race. Retirements may have helped his final position but would probably have got a top 8 without them.

CB 106.3 Units


Other things of note include Toyota scoring a terrific podium - a good performance for sure but I'll check the lap times and stuff to see how much of the performance is speed, and how much is reliability.

Montoya failed to finish so Renault extend their constructors championship lead. I may be inclined now to put in a saver bet for McLaren whose odds must be getting a bit juicier.

Another thing is the number of safety cars - congrats punta. Of course you were absolutely right about that bet. With Melbourne being a street circuit any driver error can put the car into a wall and rebounding back onto the track.

Well clearly I'm over the moon at this result. It couldn't be better and I hope it may long continue. We're off to Imola next where Ferrari were so strong last year. It's going to be another interesting betting race. I can hardly wait.

[feather]

Great result Mofo,

Poor Jensen Button, did feel sorry for him

Look forward to the next race

Ciao

[punta]

great week for you mofo

i had fisi to beat button on tab sportsbet and if it want for internet betting i think i might have ripped up my ticket.

great tips again and cant wait till next race

great job mate and keep it up

[Sportz]

Yeah, good tipping. Well done.

[Mofo]

Thanks for the kind words guys. Mucho apreció :)

[Mofo]

This could be another exciting race with competitive performances from a number of drivers and teams. Today, the 5 day forcast for Imola shows mainly showers. At the Australian GP, 3 weeks ago, Friday practice was in showers and the Michilen teams all had an advantage. So if the weather comes through as expected then it could be more of the same.

Again, I'm expecting Renault to be at the top. One important thing to note about Renault at this GP is that Fisichella has use of the new b-spec engine, while Alonso must continue to use the same a-spec engine used in Melbourne. This should all but cancel any driver advantage Alonso has over his team mate. Alonso is too short IMO, at $2.80, to back with confidence this race.

At McLaren, Raikkonen is using an old engine, which may bring relaibility into question. Montoya, I think, has a new engine but his pace so far this year has been a little dissapointing. McLaren are simmering still - they should be boiling. I'm waiting at least another race before tipping them for a win.

Imola is the Ferrari home track. They performed well here last year and should do so again this year. Both drivers have new improved engines which should help also. Questions remain about their tires however, particularly if it's showering.

Toyota have been fast in last weeks testing. Quicker than all except the Renaults. There is plenty of value about for this team - get on 'em.

I'm having doubts over the Honda development. They are not showing the same pace relative to their competition and so I'm not considering them a factor this race.


Here are some early bets:
OB 106.3 Units

TAB Sportsbet don't have thier top3 markets open yet but I'd say the Trulli price here is over the top.

Win
Trulli 1 Unit @ $81.00

Sportsbet Australia

Hd to Hd
Montoya 3 units @ $1.90 vs Button

Group - Barrichello, Trulli, Heidfeld, Villenuve, Coulthard
Trulli 3 Units @ $4.00

Top3
Fisichella 3 Units @ $3.00

CB 96.3 Units

[feather]

Hd to Hd
Montoya 3 units @ $1.90 vs Button

Top3
Fisichella 3 Units @ $3.00

One from two
Look forward to this week
Ciao

[punta]

mofo where are youuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
came on here late last night hoping to get a tip for the race
ive been busy with work lately and havent had a chance to respond im sorry
i did take fisi for top 3 at $1.80

hope you went well mate