Finding the 'set' Longshot !

[crash]

Can't remember where I picked the rules up for this one. It's been hanging around in my files for some time. Works best during the week or the more minor races Sat. metro or country.

There are usually signposts in the past performances that indicate what the performance of a horse will be. Things like improved speed ratings, early foot, class drops and such seem to always put the crowd on a horse.

Shrewd stables often have their trainers do everything possible to cover up an upcoming big race. You have to use trickery to spot this.
Here is an easy way to spot the playing of smart money before the race.

1. List all horses that went off in last race at odds of $9 or over, and did not end in the money. Any win, place or 4th. will cause public action and destroy the plan.
2. Now go to the morning lines. Reduce the M/L odds by 50%. If it is $15 make it $7.50
3. Five minutes before post, bet any horse that has been bet down to the new lower odds.

With none of the obvious reasons for the betting, it is almost certain that the horse is being set. It may not win, all longshots don't, but you know the stable and connections are putting money where they think it has action.

[crash]

Just to prove this system works, I kept an eye on this yesterday and the results where from the only 2 that qualified at Syd. Brisb. and Adelaide [I ignored the big Melb. meeting] ....2 wins !!!

Cheltenham R5/11 HOWDY KEN Formline S247 PP$100 Win $29.60 [Galloway]

Eagle Farm R1/9 DEAD CAT BOUNCE Formline 9850 PP$30 Win $13.90 [Bryant]

Both had significant Jockeys put on-board and obviously some connected people did well. Naturally I was monitoring the method and not betting it. Typical me.

To make things easier, I have found you can dump rule 1 and just use rules 2 and 3, but make sure the runner placed worse than 4th. last start. Makes the whole exercise very easy indeed. I just note anything at $25PP or above getting into less than 50% SP.

[Punter76]

Where did you get your pre-posts for these selections?
My PP prices I use had Howdy Ken @ $13.00 which would suggest the opposite happened.
And my PP price for Dead Cat Bounce was $17.00

[salty]

Crash,

Can you advise which Pre-post you used. WA tab had Dead Cat Bounce at $17 and Howdy Ken at $16.
Salty

[jacfin]

This system would certainly be enhanced if your pp price source gets it hopelessly wrong. Especially, if it gets mostly winners wrong.
Salty is correct about the WA prices.

[crash]

Oh, an opportunity to do some tall poppy mowing is it fella's:-) ??? Not so fast guys.

The brake was monitoring this system with the Winning Post [she hates the computer for racing] and Howdy Ken is definitely listed at $100pp. as I've just checked her figures. Placings were:11[100pp] 5[6.50pp] 9[25pp].

I have also checked DCB but a small mistake from brake when I asked her the pp odds. Placing were 9 [25pp./$13.90w was close enough to half pp I guess, so don't quibble on that one] 7 [14pp] 3 [7pp].

I'm sure one of you has a Winning Post or if not put a thread up and ask as someone will have it, then get them to check. I have WP right in front of me
now and also I am not selling anything here 8-)

Cheers matey's.

PS: Considering both horses would have been winning bets if backed, I think WP got it hopelessly RIGHT!!! Rule 4:Use the Winning Post[?] lol lol chuckle.

[darkydog2002]

Just curious but whats the purpose of the 8 - in your posts .

Thanks and cheers.
darky.

[crash]

8 Wide open eyes, - nose, ) mouth.

[Stix]

Oh, an opportunity to do some tall poppy mowing is it fella's:-) ??? Not so fast guys.

The brake was monitoring this system with the Winning Post [she hates the computer for racing] and Howdy Ken is definitely listed at $100pp. as I've just checked her figures. Placings were:11[100pp] 5[6.50pp] 9[25pp].

I have also checked DCB but a small mistake from brake when I asked her the pp odds. Placing were 9 [25pp./$13.90w was close enough to half pp I guess, so don't quibble on that one] 7 [14pp] 3 [7pp].

I'm sure one of you has a Winning Post or if not put a thread up and ask as someone will have it, then get them to check. I have WP right in front of me
now and also I am not selling anything here 8-)

Cheers matey's.

PS: Considering both horses would have been winning bets if backed, I think WP got it hopelessly RIGHT!!! Rule 4:Use the Winning Post[?] lol lol chuckle.(unfortunately) Crash, It's very typical of the "posting" mindset here..... I reckon good onya fella for posting... can't see where the other members have contributed positively anywhere on this forum..... just the "typing" equivalent of hot air....

All the best ;)

[crash]

Don't upset em Stix, they obviously lost Saturday when their in this [chainsaw] mood and they missed this threads WP selections to top it off.

You might be next if you upset em' !!!

[KennyVictor]

Fair suck of the sav lads. Jacfin's reply could be termed 'aggressive' if you're the sensitive type but the other two lads were quite within their rights to ask where you got your numbers from.
And in Jacfin's defence he wouldn't be the first to sternly question someones results reported AFTER the race. I have a feeling you may have done that on one or two occasions Crash.
Cynicism and suspicion go with the territory here. If we believe all we hear or read we're going to be up a certain creek without a rowing device.

KV

[Punter76]

Run that by me again?
Where exactly was my chainsaw comment?

I would have thought that if a selection won at $25.00, the PP price of $13 was more correct, accurate and well informed than the $100 PP price..

Is that logical now?

But.. you did give me a great idea that showed 300% return looking back at
Saturdays longshots.

[crash]

Fair suck of the sav lads.
And in Jacfin's defence he wouldn't be the first to sternly question someones results reported AFTER the race. I have a feeling you may have done that on one or two occasions Crash.
KV

Come on Kenny mate, your unfairly underestimating me [and probably Stix's intent too]. I reckon I've done the above you mentioned a few hundred times at least [sternly question someones results]. Give a bloke's score card a bit of credit and a fair score. A 'couple' of times? I feel insulted !!!

I don't mind some 'hard' questioning [I would hope so anyway] and I'm sure anyone would agree [and those concerned], I've hardly taken the blokes apart for doing it to me have I? I wouldn't expect any less from the no-holds barred-crew here. I didn't read any animosity in their posts and responded accordingly. Perhaps Stix just misinterpreted the posts as 'nasty', but I take support wherever I find it :-)

Lighten up mate, I think you have missed the plot here maybe[?] It's ALL good natured I think. Did you have a bad Saturday too 8-) ?

[crash]

Run that by me again?
Where exactly was my chainsaw comment?

I would have thought that if a selection won at $25.00, the PP price of $13 was more correct, accurate and well informed than the $100 PP price..

Is that logical now?

But.. you did give me a great idea that showed 300% return looking back at
Saturdays longshots.

There you go Kenny. I helped one of the poor sods out. He's going to make a friggen fortune from my idea !!!!