Neural CF Plan

[Bhagwan]

Heres a plan that one might like to check out .
It pulls quit a few strong priced winners , betting 7 days a week.

Target the top 2 picks on Radio TABQ or any other reliable source.
One of these 2 tend to get up 40% of the time.

Target races 4-8 only .
These tend to be better quality races & its a way to reduce the number of bets.

Pull up the Neural site & set the CP rating column to 5 & all the rest to 0.

We bet the horse with the worst CP (current performance) rating, even if its showing a 0 rating.

The reason why we bet the one with the worst rating, is so we can pull some value, because a lot of punters pay a lot of attention to hoses most resent performances which usually equates to over betting & short prices , we are going against the herd.

The plan pulls some very good prices & has shown a level stakes profit on many days where the Fav decides not to get up all day.

Many experts will tell us that one cannot use just one single set of positive performance figures & hope to profit long term , so, we will take that advice & bet the opposit.

Staking .
Bet 1.0% of bank at level stakes
e.g. $1.00 for every $100 bank.

Have a look at Sat 25th Feb.
There were 9 venues with 44 races to bet on (races 4-8)
11 wins from 44 =25% SR
Ret 58.10. O/L 44.00= +14.10 Prof =32% POT
Divs $8.30,5.10.1.90,4.50,3.80,9.10,5.50,4.00,3.90,2.80,5.10,4.10

Check it out on past performances before betting any real money.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

That CP is supposed to read CF ( Current Form )
Its the second one down the column.

[Fryingpan]

Yes I was wondering about those 'formless' winners. How do you spot them??

I have found than sometimes you can spot them with 5th or worse in BOTH of their last two starts plus they are also 1st 2nd or 3rd favourites in the race. Usually come very close or win. I must add the race ought to be a class 4 or above race, since formlessness abounds in the lower grades.

Really interesting twist Bhagwan.

I'd be very interested if anyone can add to this.

Eg ratio of high CF in a field to low CF ratings and who wins.
or When does the CF and some other rating show a wave concept of rising and falling performance.

[Bhagwan]

Sun 26 Feb Results.
Targeting races 4-8 only
Worst CF rating of the Top 2 Radio TAB tips.
8 from 35 =23% SR
Ret $55.70
O/L $35.00
Prof +20.70 =59% POT


Divs
$2.90,19.40,4.60,6.60,4.70,2.60,4.80,10.10

Targeting best CF rating= 9 from 35 Ret 50.70 O/L 35.00 Prof +$15.70
We can see that the SR is similar but the average return is greater.


Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Results Mon 27 Feb
races 4-8 only
1 win from 13 bets
O/L 13.00
Ret 40.30
Prof +27.30 =210% POT

Div $40.30 (amazing)

Cheers.

[dingoboy]

Hi Bhagwan

This neural site, is it the one i am thinking of, AA_ ?

I still use the unitab first two/three picks, it is working well, sometimes however i leave out a selection if it is a bit strange or excessive odds, sometimes they do come in.

Thanks for all of your effort.

MADDAM DINGO

[Bhagwan]

Yes ,it is that site.
Its the weird ones with strange looking form that often get up & pay the double digit returns .

By using this process of taking the worst CF rating , the decision is made for us when separating the top 2 selections.

One would expect the stronger CF (current form) rated horse to get up more often & it does , but not enough to make level stakes profit.

It is often said , that one has to try & look outside the square if one wishes to find value so as to place ourselves in front of the game.

Another reason for leaving out the first 3 races, is this is where statisticly, favs have the highest SR .

So far there have been 92 bets for 20 wins = 22% SR
Ret. $154.10
O/L $92.00
Prof +$62.10 =67.5% POT

I expect to see this POT to come down over time.

I`ll say one thing , one wont become bored because of shortage of action.

Most experts claim that long term profit, can not be made betting this number of bets each day & they may very well be right, but I beleive they are talking about chasing in form horses & there are not enough of those to go around to sustain this volumn of bets . So, we are taking the stance that there must be a number of out of form horses getting up, in between ,at juicy odds.

It could be all about the Ying & Yang .
e.g. Male & Female...Fire & Water...Profit & Loss
They must co-incide to make the difference.

Lets see if the Ying wheels fall off for this Yang process.

Cheers.

[dingoboy]

Today im going to follow this idea of yours, im going to run it next to my other two ideas, i wont put money on it yet.

a couple of questions being a novice to say the least re nuerals.

Target the two first unitab selections,..no worries, falls into my plan A.

q. Do i then ONLY bet the horse from unitab selections if its CF is the lowest, or do i take it if it is the lowest CF anyway, i assume you only take the bottom CF if it is a radio tab first two selection, just clarifying.

q. When you say even if its CF is zero bet it, what if it has no value, i plugged in the criteria this morning and some of the nags were 3, but underneath that one would be a donkey with nothing, do we leave this one alone.

Thanks heaps.

Dingo

[dingoboy]

Think i follow,

it did well today as far as i read it, had some nice winners, one at 11.


Keeping an eye on this one.

Dingo

[baco60]

Good stuff Bhagwan, magic Radio TAB numbers (Holy Grail).

Any one in this forum that does not take notice of Bhagwan contribution might just as well give it up.
Again and again,nothing but the best from you Bhagwan.
Cheers
Baco 60

[dingoboy]

I know exactly where you are going,
I have a spreadsheet that you might want to have a look at.
Its following unitab first 3, some calculations, a tweak and what i call a "fit" and away we go.
In the last week, PAPER, and trust me its as i would do it, no questions asked, pot as of 4:30pm this afternoon, 46 %

I used it at the pub friday afternoon and sunday afternoon (4 bets)

if you want to have a look, email me at p a r r a d o g @ h o t m a i l . c o m.

I will send you the results and you can see if its what your talking about.

You will have to wait till tomorrow as my betting sheet is on my work computer and i update this home computer with a storage disk ,....which is plugged into the computer at work,...but a good result today with an 11 unit winner.

Cheers Dingo

[Bhagwan]

Hi Baco60
I dont know about the "best" compliment,
but thankyou for your kind words Baco60.

Just to reiterate .(There appears to be some confusion)
1)Taget RadioTAB top 2 selections for races 4-8 only .
2)Selection is the one with the worst CF NR-rating of the 2 RadioTAB selections , even if it shows a 0 rating & a picture of a donkey.
3)Sometimes they share the same rating. Rightly or wrongly , I take the one that is the lowest on the list of the 2 selections in the CF column .

Thats it.

It seems to jag some good priced Donkeys that one would not have selected in a million years, because their current form (CF) , looks terrible.

I`m trying to keep this as primitive as possible , so lets see if the wheels fall off .

Results
Tue 28 Feb.
3 from 15 =20% SR
Ret $24.70
O/L $15.00
Prof +$9.70 =65% POT

Divs $5.40,11.00,8.30

Cheers.

[baco60]

Let me make it clear Bhagwan, I am not after anything; as far as I am concerned you are on the top of the list.
I read every post that you wrote in this forum, they are helpful, and you are always ready to help, and you never knock people.
Your comments and inputs make sense. I learned a lot from you.$$$$$$$
That is good enough for me to pay respect.

Baco60

[Bhagwan]

Thanks Baco60

Results
Wed 1 Mar.
5 from 28=18% SR
Ret 23.20
O/L 28.00
Loss -4.80

Divs $3.40,2.60,7.00,5.00,5.20

YTD
28 wins from 135 bets = 21% SR
Ret $202.00
O/L $135.00
Prof +$67.00 = 50% POT

This is considered to be a lot of bets over just a few days & very few systems will ever survive over this volumn of bets , in this type of time frame , long term. So I wont be supprised if the percentages start to drop away.

We will expect to see the profit percentage figure to start lowering as the number of total bets increase.
It will be interesting to see if the SR holds around the 20% mark.

It will also be interesting to see what happens over the next few days with all the rain that we are seeing .

Cheers.

[Stix]

This is considered to be a lot of bets over just a few days & very few systems will ever survive over this volumn of bets , in this type of time frame , long term. So I wont be supprised if the percentages start to drop away.

We will expect to see the profit percentage figure to start lowering as the number of total bets increase.
It will be interesting to see if the SR holds around the 20% mark.

It will also be interesting to see what happens over the next few days with all the rain that we are seeing .

Cheers.
What about discarding Metro venues.............??

[Bhagwan]

Hi Stix,
Is there any reasoning behind the idea of discarding Metro meetings.

Last Sat Metro only 56% POT
9 from 25 =36% SR

Results
Thur 2 Mar
4 from 19=21%
Ret 13.80
O/l 19.00
Loss -5.20

Divs $2.60,4.30,3.30,3.60

[Stix]

Hi Stix,
Is there any reasoning behind the idea of discarding Metro meetings.

Last Sat Metro only 56% POT
9 from 25 =36% SR

Results
Thur 2 Mar
4 from 19=21%
Ret 13.80
O/l 19.00
Loss -5.20

Divs $2.60,4.30,3.30,3.60G'day Bhagwan

No real reasoning behind discarding Metro Meetings, just another filter to see if the results produce any trends/anomalies...... just curious.....

[Bhagwan]

Results
Fri 3 mar
2 from 18
Ret 5.80
O/L 18.00
Loss -12.20

Divs $3.80,2.00

It was one of those days where the better rated of the 2 selections got up all day ,9 from 18 actually, one has to expect things like this will happen from time to time in racing. There will be days where the lower rated of the 2 , gets up all day aswell.

If one is willing to accept the winners ,one also has to accept the loosers.

YTD
Ret $221.60
O/L $172.00
Prof +$49.60 = 29% POT
34 wins from 172 Bets = 20% SR

The POT has lowered as expected.
Lets see if the 20% SR holds.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Sat 4 Mar
8 from 43 =19% SR
Ret 33.30
O/L 43.00
Loss - 9.70

Divs $4.10,5.90,2.40,1.60,4.40,3.40,5.90,5.60

Once again many short priced public elects got up .
Many of our selections at good prices, ran second after leading at the 100m point.
The RadioTABs top 2 had 19wins from 43 races a 44% SR , 10 of the 19 paid $4.00 & less.

Like anything , they all have their day in the Sun & one knows that this changes like the shifting sands in the desert.
The possitive thing so far, is that we are still in Profit with the SR still at approx 20% , after more than 200 bets.
Lets see what Sunday has to offer , Sundays often have a number of suprise results.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Sun 5 Mar
9 from 39=23% SR
Ret 34.80
O/L 39.00
Loss -4.30

Divs $3.30,3.30,3.40,2.60,4.50,5.20,5.40,3.80,3.30

YTD
51 wins from 254 bets = 20% SR
Ret 288.40
O/L 254.00
Prof +34.40 =13.50% POT

Not fair! , the prices once again where ordinary.
It shows how inportant it is to seek the stronger prices given out by such mobs as IAS & Dialabet ect.

The SR seems to be holding & we are still in profit.
We will keep going until until the wheels fall off.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Mon 6 Mar
1 from 13 (ouch)
Ret 4.90
O/L 13.00
Loss -8.10

More short priced horses , let the nightmare continue , bring it on.