Last Start Winners

[Stix]

Hi All

Has anyone done some research into last start winners that jump at > 10-1 at their next start.

Seems - to a novice like me - that there are often some good prices about these horses, granted there are some horses that are more than entitled to be and are often longer (i.e. the horse that wins at 20-1 and hasn't won for 10 starts or ever!).... but I'm thinking more along the lines of horses, with good form and/or are good race horses.

From other posts it has been quoted that the recent form is not necessarily heavily emphasised when backing the horses, which is IMHO is fair enough - many factors need to be and should be considered. I myself often prefer to emphasise horse history (record at track and distance, 1st-up/2nd-up etc record - they are creatures of repetition) - others will say look outside the square.... but it works for me.

Today at Cowra R4-3 Nampara Bullet won paying 12.7 after winning last start - not saying it is a quality horse or anything more than a plodder (looking at the winning time - it may just be).... anyway, by way of (poor) example it shows sort of where I'm coming from.... (I think... I hope ;) )

Just wondering what people think?

Any way over to you.........

[KennyVictor]

I've just knocked up a quick program to test it and it doesn't look good.

Strike rate about 3.5% and 63% of your cash comes back from 2005 to present day. This is based on SP only, horses at $10 or over. Haven't applied any filters at all and that's all races in Australia including the very small non-tote meetings.
Still, we couldn't expect anything quite that simple to work without some effort I suppose or everyone would be doing it. :)

KV

[Bhagwan]

Try targeting 1200m only races.
This seems to favor specialists at this distance & is the distance where a number of last starts winners perform.
Including winners last start in exactly 7 days.

Check it out.

Cheers.

[KennyVictor]

Hi Bhagwan,
1/1/5 - present. Won last race, SP > $10. ALL Aust races.

All races --- 5980 bets - Strike rate 3.54% - ROI 62.55%
Current race 1180m - 1220m --- 1221 bets - SR 3.27% - ROI 60.19%
Last race 1180m - 1220m --- 1109 bets - SR 3.69% - ROI 65.01%
Both races 1180m - 1220m --- 435 bets - SR 3.67% - ROI 71.26%
Both races 1180m - 1220m - 7 days since last race - 23 bets - 1 winner at $17. (that should give someone an ideal opportunity to shoot down my figures and say what about so and so who won on such and such paying this amount?)

Looks like your specialist theory is correct boosting the return to 70% plus. I'd say just limiting it to the current race being 1200m wouldn't work because you would have horses who won their last (longer) race returning from a spell at (an unsuitable) 1200m.

KV

[Stix]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Some interesting results and a little worse than I expected...... obviously would need further defining to make a workable system.

It's just one of those situations that often pops up and you think to yourself when it happens "Why didn't I see that coming"..... anyway thanks!

[marky]

How does it perform for Last Start Winners are > say $7 at next start (and excluding any race where there are more than 1 Last Start Winner)?