ITS YOURS FOR FREE !!

[dingoboy]

OK,

After 400 bets, taken LIVE at 5 minutes before jump, no dollars on them but it was not tested backwards, the bets were written down and put into a spreadsheet as i would do normally.

Selection Process:

UNITAB RADIO selections

A:the first three runners, nothing else.
B: If at five minutes before jump the radio tab 1st selection is paying MORE than 3, preferably 3.5, this is a selection.
C:If Radio tab selection above is below this, look at selection 2, if this is 3.5 or to 11, this is a selection.
D:if the first two arent in the window, go to radio tab 3rd selection, same critria as step C,

staking:
I used two methods under trial, Flat stakes and divisor.

The flat stakes worked fine, divisor was a bit tough as there was one run of 13 outs in a row, average was about 4.

Filters/twists i used:
dont bet in races that have a fav paying 1.5 or similar, leave it alone.
If radio tab selection was say 16 win/3.5 place, i would take it for place only, better s/r.

RESULTS:

400 races.
S/R 26 %
AV DIV 4.64

NOTES:

i initially wanted a "straight out no thought" system, ie JUST TAKE radio tab 1st selection, but it was a looser, that is where this has its faults, one needs to ;pick" the next best one from the other two selections, some may find higher s/r, some may find it lower,

The dividends are calculated on unitab, i would immagine if one searches for fixed odds, one may do better, sometimes even "best tote".

I would have a look before putting money on it. This is no sure thing, its just 400 bets results, it may curve out eventually and be a looser, BUT.

as i said, i initially looked into this with a divisor target bet plan, half way through i realised that progressive staking/loss chase wasnt needed and flat stakes were ok.

my logic:
Simple betting,
there has to be a winner in every race, regardless of class/distance/track/jockey.
accesability to the average punter (tips/selection)
If favs win 30% of the time, and if a punter took the fav everytime, he would loose, if we find good value (fixed odds or best tote) our dividends are improved and if we only bet the fav sometimes, well there is results from 400 bets.

Have a look, some will hate it, some might be interested.
I personally am going to stick with it and run 100 bet sequence with a big divisor, profit will be made over 100 bets rather than the first.

Good luck

[Shaun]

If i were you i would stick with flat stakes...in the end you may get back a little less but it is much safer

[dingoboy]

i agree

Thats why i stopped wasting my time testing it with two scenarios.
I personally will use the divisor, but thats me, im hopeless.

Hope you get something from it anyway.

Dingo

[dingoboy]

some nice ones at port to start the day, now the one at bunbury, 10,1,7.
A classic for what i posted,

leave out first selection if under 3s, take the next, 6.1 unitab,

well see !

[DR RON]

Well done Dingo

[Chrome Prince]

Well done dingoboy,

I just love some innovative thinking and testing, especially when there's some logic to it, I like your thought process.

Unfortunately, this one will probably be published, as this and other forums have seagulls trawling to make publication deadlines.

400 bets eh?

Well, I've seen hopes pinned on a lot less - less than 100 bets with one bolter making up the profit, you've obviously worked hard on this one and deserve the financial rewards.

Nearly 16% POT, and using best tote, you'd be close to 20% I reckon.

Good one!

[Skater]

Hi Dingo Boy,

Have looked at that my self over the years and have had some very long runouts, broke the bank along the way.
I was divisors of 5,10,12,15 reducing (Same as the Power of Ten Staking Plan)
Did'nt work
Just after a loosing run a winner gets up at a small price then followed but yet a nother loosing run.......... get my drift, say good bye to the Bank.
What i have found as with all things punting its mostly luck and using the Radio Tab selections can have its good days but when it falls over in STINKS.

But if your cashing in on level stakes good luck to ya.
Cool

[dingoboy]

The loosing runs,
I was interested in this.
what started me off was a read a book that i purchased two years ago, it is called bet smarter and "possibally"win, very similar anyway.

I read something in there which i missed previously,

Over 100, 1000, 10000 bets, one should be able to get 30% just taking the favporites.

THEN, i thought,...what is the favourite?, paper, ias fav, radio tab fav, crowd fav ????who knows, hence my simplictic option which is a non changing one,...RADIO TAB.

That is where one need to have the percentages on ones favour, you cant just back the first one blindly.

so Back to the book, it states that you set a divisor of 64, OVER 100 bets.(depending on s/r, div etc)

What they are doing is avoiding long runs of outs as the divisor is calculated over the ENTIRE 100 bets, not just one to the next.

This is where it comes from, and if it hold up, i will be contacting the author and ask him where to send the box of vino to.

we will see,

The main thing though,...shop for prices, sometimes a 5 point runner on fixed odds will be 12 on tabs, even with late money it wouldnt really drop too much so i often take tab prices RATHER than bookies, lots of screens, but hey.

WE WILL SEE

Dingo

[dingoboy]

Sorry,

When i first started testing,...your right,...the s/r was something like 36% and av div was 4.9, so thats why i dragged it out to 400.

I dont now, but i personally will be keeping an eye on it.

For those punters who like to stop after a win, this works well.

Ding

[Punter]

well done Dingo,

AR1 1 $5.90 NSW

[dingoboy]

Thats it,
I think i got open price on ias of 8.5 or 9 fixed !

Thats what i mean "for those who like to stop on a winner"

Just keep an eye open.

This particular runner AR1 was also a contender for something else, so it was a reasonable bet, hope you were on it.

Ding