Favourite Stats Vs Non Fav Stats

[Pauls123]

Hi there, its a little while since I visited this forum, but I know a lot of you out there have a lot of statistics at your fingertips. I've been looking at betting against the favourite lately, and would be very interested in some general statistics relating to the following:

% of favs that win say in the sp range of less than and incl $2

% of favs that win in the sp range of over $2 and up to $2.90

% of favs that win in the sp range of $3 and over

And the other thing I'd be interested to know is, which I would think would be difficult to find out.....% of favs that win that are a noteable drifter in the market

Any stats along the above lines would be appreciated.

Regards
Paul

[KennyVictor]

Hi Paul,

In races where NSW tab has a pool we are betting on the SP favorite.

<= $2.00 Strike rate 51.46%, SP returned 90.16%, NSW tab return on same races 93.06%. 7345 races

2.01 - 2.99 Strike rate 36.53%, SP returned 90.71%, NSW tab return on same races 90.78%. 15380 races

>= $3.00 Strike rate 24.94%, SP returned 89.42%, NSW tab return on same races 88.08%. 21784 races

Interestingly the figures since 1/1/3 are all slightly better for SP amount returned (half to 1 percent).

Only thing I can get from this is bet the real shorties on the TAB and the longer ones SP!! Hope it means more to you.

KV

[Pauls123]

Thanks KV,

Thats very interesting stats, the odds on/even money fav ones dont surprise me, I thought they would be around the 50% mark. Naturally you cant win by backing those as you would need $2 just to break even.

The theory I am looking at is when the fav eases in the betting, (following IAS) to a price beyond the $3 mark and then backing the next 3 or 4 runners in the betting if I can make a profit. And using the Austote betting, finding the prices are much more generous when outside the fav compared to nswtab prices.

I guess it would be rather difficult to come up with a stat as to how often this occurs, but I am finding a lot of returns, when I randomly sit here on an afternoon and watch the flucs.

Open for further comments,....????

Regards
Paul