Give us your best system rule that doesn't kill odds.

[crash]

Ok, we're heading into the winter period of hibernation, discontent and lots of spare time on our hands. Let work out a collective system: "THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM"

Pull out your best rule that won't kill odds [none of this must have finished in the placings last start rubbish]. After we get a stack, we'll shuffle in the best for the "Communist System" by vote and sit back and count our pennies [if any].

[crash]

I'll kick off: Must be a race between 1100m and 2050m.

[the mug]

Hey comrade crash
i'll have a go..

I like horses that were unplaced last start (5th or worse) but were right in the market, ie 8-1 or less

So many punters drop off a horse after one bad run, it usually starts at better odds next start...there the ones i look for..

Hope it helps.

[Duritz]

Good idea this one Comrade Crash - the best rule is a 9 day or less break since LS.

[crash]

Ok we almost have a system already comrades. I like both of them. Mug, your rule is a goodie but placed before the bad last run was what you meant wasn't it?

[baco60]

Comarade Крушение(Крах), я думаю, что я имею коммунистическую систему для Вас.
Только спросите меня приятно

[the mug]

hi crash
Yeah, i would like to see the horse in some form in its second last start (placed or not too far away from winner,no hard or fast rule), but if we want/need a hard n fast rule then yes places second last start..

And since it was well favoured in the market last start, it hopefully just had a bad ounce of luck, or 3 wide,etc ...

and agree with duritz's call that it backs up within the next fortnight..

cheers

[Squirter]

G'day Crash,

Age of horse to 4 and having no more than 15 starts. Young and fit mate and not had the guts flogged out of it.

Cheers

[lomaca]

Comarade Крушение(Крах), я думаю, что я имею коммунистическую систему для Вас.
Только спросите меня приятно
Baco60 Privet!
K sazaleniu, umena net kirillici.
But if you really want to give us your kommunist system then I will ask you, Pretty please? will you?
Good luck

[baco60]

Well done Lomaca your Russian is good.

[partypooper]

Must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs

[crash]

We are off to a good start and we can obviously add in no 2yr. olds because we need some exposed form to work with from all runners.


So we have so far:

.........THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM................

Must be a race between 1100m and 2050m.
Unplaced last start (5th or worse) and 8-1 SP or less
9 day or less break since LS.
Age of horse 3 to 4 and having no more than 15 starts
Must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs
Must have 2 or more runs in from a spell?

I have added in the last rule or Party's rule cannot work.
Do we need some more defining rules or do we have a system? Race class? Place SR ? A similar distance rule since last start? Must not be dropping more than 1kg?

[davez]

must have 50% or greater place stike rate at todays distance

maybe also must be the only runner in the field starting within the last 9 days?

[bobby]

Not going up in distance by 200mtrs or down in distance by 100mtrs


Bobby

[Duritz]

Crash you don't want many more rules - under the rules as they currently are there'll already be very few bets...

[crash]

I agree Duritz, too many rules will kill the odds.

.........THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM................

1.Must be a race between 1100m and 2050m.
2.Unplaced last start (5th or worse) and $8SP or less last start.
3.9 day or less break since LS.
4.Age of horse 3 to 4 and having no more than 15 starts
5.Must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs
6.Must have 2 or more runs in from a spell.
7.No more than 200mtrs up or 100mtrs down in distance.
8.Weight must not be going up or down more than 2kg. [ignore claims].

I think we need the last rule to avoid country horses contesting out of their class too far and city has-beens dropping down in class too far [they both usually lose].

'must have 50% or greater place strike rate at todays distance'
We'll leave out as it's a bit too defining and will certainly affect odds too much on country tracks. A good rule for Sat. metro but trying to keep this as an any-day system. If at all perhaps an overall %SR without a distance clause[?]

OK comrades, unless their are serious dissenters [we are watching you!], we'll give this a bit of a flog and see how it goes. We might win enough roubles to buy our freedom !!

[crash]

Sunday 9th. of April.

* I have relaxed a couple of rules just slightly as it was turning out to be all looking and no qualifiers !

.......THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM...............

1.Must be a race between 1100m and 2250m.
2.Unplaced last start (5th or worse) and $8SP or less last start.
3.10 days or less break since LS.
4.Age of horse 3 to 5 and having no more than 15 starts
5.Must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs
6.Must have 2 or more runs in from a spell.
7.No more than 200mtrs up or 100mtrs down in distance.
8.Weight must not be going up or down more than 3kg. [ignore claims].


HAMILTON
R6/11- 5588115 CONCLAVE (3) ADELE GARRAWAY -F ALESCI - 53.5
MUSWELLBROOK
R7/6 - 36s1225 MAHARANI MARSCAY (4) TODD HOWLETT -P GRAHAM 54
PORT LINCOLN
R4/6 - 0831845 PURAKING (5) ROBERT KING - M HOPPO 54.5
TATURA
R6 [CUP] 5 -s009016 DON'T STOP (1) JAMIE SCOTT -L CURRIE 55

I havn't looked at ELWICK or KALGOORLIE .

[Chuck]

not up in class

[darkydog2002]

I assume the weight rule if taking into account the "LIMIT "weight.

Cheers.
darky.

[Duritz]

Good work Crash.

Can any of our other comrades test this system for us? Remember, we all must put in for the communist plan to work!!

[Merriguy]

Puraking $16.90/$4.20 Unitab !!!!!

[crash]

I'm a firm believer in striking a system before it goes pear shaped. I've had $10x$40 on each of them e/w. for a bit of Sunday fun. Nice start Comrades !!!

[crash]

Good work Crash.

Can any of our other comrades test this system for us? Remember, we all must put in for the communist plan to work!!

I'm testing it right now mate. A OK so far:-)

[the mug]

...great work crash n comrades...a winner first up...!!!!

I missed it though. Just got back from bad golf..Will follow the rest with interest...
The hamilton selection is about 20/1 befor the jump

[crash]

Conclave just missed a place for 4th.

[Merriguy]

Conclave: fourth, comrades.

Still we should be ahead so far [today -- and some day(s) in the future!]

[the mug]

Conclave - just missed a place...

[crash]

Considering the odds, that was a very impressive run. I'm not too unhappy with it.

[Sportz]

Hmmm, I looked at them, but didn't back them. Damn.

[Duritz]

Ah but Sportz, comrade, the communist cannot ride on the back of his fellow communist without toiling his share! The man who benefits from the toilings of others without toiling himself is that pig capitalist!

[crash]

2 wins and 2 4ths. Not bad going for a system by the people for the people !

[crash]

Monday 10th. April

Mildura
R8/1 -97s19 JACKABILITY (4) BRENDON HEARPS [? apprentice?] 58

Moree
R3/4 -s6719 STOP TALKING (4) LUKE GRIFFITH -D JONES (N) 54
R5/7 -5s36631 TIGE (5) GEOFF O'BRIEN -CLINT LUNDHOLM (A,2) 54

These don't look too bad at all.

[Sportz]

Going well so far.

[darkydog2002]

Making money eh.

Its off to the gulag for you lot.

Commisar darky.

[crash]

We'll bribe our way out Darky.

Commie system tips.
Mildura
R8/1 -97s19 JACKABILITY (4) BRENDON HEARPS [? apprentice?] 58 [2nd. $2.10]
Moree
R3/4 -s6719 STOP TALKING (4) LUKE GRIFFITH -D JONES (N) 54 [win $2.90/$1.70]
R5/7 -5s36631 TIGE (5) GEOFF O'BRIEN -CLINT LUNDHOLM (A,2) 54 [unp]

[crash]

Rule 4 has had a mild modification. As the selections are 3 to 5yr. old there is no point having a max number of runs. Females not racing against males is a handier addition.

..........THE COMMIE SYSTEM...............

1.Must be a race between 1100m and 2250m.
2.Unplaced last start (5th or worse) and $8SP or less last start.
3.10 days or less break since LS.
4.Age of horse 3 to 5 yrs and must not be a mare racing against males.
5.Must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs
6.Must have 2 or more runs in from a spell.
7.No more than 200mtrs up or 100mtrs down in distance.
8.Weight must not be going up or down more than 3kg. [ignore claims].

Selection for Saterday 15th. for w, e/w or place. Take your pick.

Coffs Harbour
R6/8 Ramraja (3)
Eagle Farm
R5/2 Good Timing (7)
Kyneton
Brief Alliance (14)
Newcastle
R4/9 Grey Night (4)
Oakbank
R9/6 Go August (13)
Ellerslie
R7/11 Alltogether (NZ) (8)

[crash]

Coffs Harbour
R6/8 Ramraja
Eagle Farm
R5/2 Good Timing [2nd.p5.60] 25/1 shot
Kyneton
Brief Alliance [Scr.]
Newcastle
R4/9 Grey Night. Don't know where I got this one from. Can't find him[?]
Oakbank
R9/6 Go August
Ellerslie
R8/11 Alltogether [scr]

[crash]

Sunday 16th

Commie system
Sunshine coast
R6/9 Nevada Gambler (7)
Mornington
R5/7 Escape Artist (1)
R8/5 Kimbo (16)

Check for Scr. Recommended bet: 1x4 e/w for all bets for this system as bet for the first selections for the system. Totals so far are:

Win outlay 10 units Return 19.80 Profit 9.80 units.
Place outlay 36 units Return 54.40 Profit 18.40 units
All up Outlay 46 units Return 74.20 Profit 28.20 units
Loseing Days: NIL

[haveadip]

Nevada got up at $7.20 probably still have to give the system a bit longer but looks promising. Is there anything the winners have in common so far so we can tighten the system just a little bit more....
Also how do you find out which horses match the system each day, other than look at every horse individually???

[crash]

Mornington is slow and haven't checked results there yet as there is 1 to run yet..

R6/9 Nevada Gambler (7) was my only bet. here [dry track]. with 2 bets 1x4 e/w from my 'place, place' thread. 1 placing at Courara for $2.40 and one to go at Albany in R6 Shane's Boy.. That's all I'd do with this system. Good tracks only . Less bets but always more races coming. Wet tracks need Handicapping for each horse selected by the system, not a system for all seasons without handicapping.

[crash]

Sunday 16th

Commie system
Sunshine coast
R6/9 Nevada Gambler (7) $7.20w $2.60p [good track]
Mornington [slow then to heavy]
R5/7 Escape Artist (1) $1.60p
R8/5 Kimbo (16) unp

I'm just using stab prices as I live in Vic. Bit silly looking up unitab after hearing the stab price on the radio after a race. It all evens out in the wash. Got my WA selection in at $1.,90 the place so a good day for me, 3 out of 3 collects.

[Wombat2]

Goodday Crash,

Re: Prices I suggest you have a look at www dot dynamicform dot com dot au it cost nothing to join and you can get prices from 3 tabs, centrebet +betfair.

Very useful if you have accounts with them.

Hope that helps you and others.

Cheers Wombat2

[haveadip]

Crash, how do you find out which horses fit the system each day?

[crash]

Crash, how do you find out which horses fit the system each day?

Spend a couple of pennies to subscribe to a half decent form guide covering all races anywhere in full. Below is an example of a 'short' form I use for systems [it all bunches up when you 'copy and paste' onto here] which comes with a handy track map at the top of each race page [not shown but is in the big space to the right] and preferably a service that shows 3 TAB live prices at the click of a button. There are plenty of services available, some better than others.......

ASCOT
R1 -12:15pm

Twilight Spy Hcp
2yo Open
Apprentices Can Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 53.0 17/04/06
1000m
$40,000
.
Circumference: 2022m
Length of Straight: 294m

No.- Form- Horse Name (Barrier) Jockey Wgt. Chg. A/S Days Pos API Win Pl. Stakes PFR
1 2317 Fighting Fox (4)" R Markou (a 3.0) 59.5 up 0.5 2/g 9 L 10622 37% 62% $84,975 20
2 x330 Brocky's Ace (8)" P King 55.0 up 1.5 2/f 9 L 6735 20% 60% $33,675 11
3 Kim Seal (10)" S Mc Gruddy 55.0 n/a 2/c - 0 0% 0% n/a
4 3 Star Risca (3)" N Rudland 55.0 --- 2/g 16 M 3600 0% 100% $3,600 9
5 Alchemic (7)" B Parnham (a) 53.5 n/a 2/f - 0 0% 0% n/a
6 Busters Icon (9)" Scratched 53.5 n/a 2/f - 0 0% 0% n/a
7 Fashion Secret (2)" T Turner 53.5 n/a 2/f - 0 0% 0% n/a
8 Lady Chalmers (6)" J Claite 53.5 n/a 2/f - 0 0% 0% n/a
9 Megalithic (5)" W Pike 53.5 n/a 2/f - 0 0% 0% n/a
10 244 Queen Ofthe Breeze (1)" Richard Rhodes (a 3.0) 53.0 dn 3.5 2/f 16 P 3333 0% 33% $10,000 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 Fighting Fox (4) 59.52yo b g (D T McAuliffe at Canning Bridge) R Markou (a 3.0)
Breeding: Eternity Range (USA) - Fimmel Fox (by Canny Lad)
Price: $40,000
Distance: 1000m
Career: $84,975. 8:3-1-1. (W 37% P 62% API 10.6). Wins: 2 (1000), 1 (1100)
Fast: 1:0-0-0. Good: 7:3-1-1. Dead: 0:0-0-0. Slow: 0:0-0-0. Heavy: 0:0-0-0.
This Distance: 4:2-0-0. This Track: 7:3-1-1. First Up: 2:1-0-0. Second Up: 2:1-0-0.

LIKES TO LEAD......................................................................................................................R.C.T ...R.C.T ..P.T.P +/-

S 1 8 1 T 1 7-16 6.3L Ascot 8Ap06R05 G2 $504000 56.0(SW) P Harvey 1-Canny Jack 15/2 13 G 1200m 0:34.38 1:10.35 0:58.63 0:57.60 0:58.55SR - Lost a plate.
S 1 8 1 T 1 1-10 1.5L Ascot 1Ap06R01 Open $40000 58.5(53.0) L Robertson 2-Oroya Gold 5/2 4 G 1100m 0:35.93 1:05.41 0:59.46 0:58.90 0:58.90**
S 1 8 1 T 1 3- 7 3.5L Ascot 25Mr06R01 LR $50300 57.0(53.0) L Robertson 1-Canny Jack 5/2 7 G 1100m 0:34.97 1:05.57 0:59.61 0:59.10 0:59.63*
FRESHENED --- (42d) ---
S 2 8 2 T 2 2- 7 0.2L Ascot 11Fe06R01 Open $40000 58.0(53.0) L Robertson 1-Canny Jack 4/7F 2 G 1100m 0:33.22 1:04.78 0:58.89 0:58.30 0:58.33***
S 2 8 - T 2 1-11 2.8L Ascot 4Fe06R01 Open $40000 56.5(53.5) L Robertson 2-Clarecastle 9/2 8 G 1000m 0:58.17 0:58.17 0:58.17 0:58.17***

etc. etc......

[crash]

Nevada got up at $7.20 probably still have to give the system a bit longer but looks promising. Is there anything the winners have in common so far so we can tighten the system just a little bit more....


I think This thread has proved to be good example to anyone that systems need not be 'exclusive' and not to fear losing a potential 'tremendous' cash cow by whacking up something you have come up with that looks good as a system. All systems hit outs and punters move on to the next shiny thing.

This simple system was turned out with a few guys throwing in a rule each. A Little tweaking to make the rules 'do something and work together constructively as rules' and it ain't the dark or mystical sciences at work. Just a common sense system

Long term there are some problems I see with this system and a few further tweaks are probably in order as some of these selection the system throws up are at the long end of the price range and a quick look at their form would have you throwing them out.

I have mentioned one tweak already I personally would make: dry tracks, but punters here that know some of my personal peccadillo's know I'm terrified of water on a track [I neally drowned in the bath as a kid when I couldn't swim yet], but I think it best that anyone wanting to pursue this or any other system that comes up here is to take the basics and tweak to suit your personal style. If I keep putting up the selections every day, well I'm just providing a free tipping service and achieving nothing [thanks if I'm lucky for lots of leg work] and nor is anyone else who is just using the selections are not exploring their own potential to create and tweak systems for themselves and that includes many forum viewers who ain't members either.

The most important tweak is to keep things simple and don't over-tweak rules or you'll end up on short priced favorites only or one bet a week. Oh, and use a decent form guide, they pay for themselves over and above what they cost. Failing all that, pay for a decent tipping sevice. They have one right here on this forum I hear.

Cheers,
Crash.

[crash]

Fogot to mention, my tip in the race above: ASCOT R1 -12:15pm is Fighting fox ......lol, lol.