View Full Version : System being trialed without the rules being supplied
crash
14th April 2006, 05:29 AM
This might be controversial but it's a valid point and not aimed at anyone. It's just that system selections without system rules are becoming the norm here now. To the point that this 'system' page rarely has any [actual] systems on it that are being discussed and/or improved, which is a pity because this forum page used to be used for that purpose.
Personally, I feel trailed systems without the rules being supplied are nothing more than tips and are on the wrong forum page. A system has a far greater chance of being improved and becoming successful if other forum members have input.
How to make money on a forum.
Scenario only:
1.Whack up and trial a few systems for a couple of months by providing their selections only but not the system rules.
2. If lucky and any of them prove profitable for that time, remove them.
3. Discretely provide contact details.
4. Set a price for any further selections or a price for the system itself :-)
Has this happened on this forum before? Probably not [yet] but it's a great idea !!
crash
14th April 2006, 06:24 AM
Well I thought it was about time someone stuck their head up and mentioned a trend that is slowing overtaking and overwhelming the whole 'systems page'.
It is quickly becoming a proving ground for personal systems which might be 'fascinating' for the system trialers, but it can become a very boring exercise for most other forum members.
There should be a rule here: If you want to put up system selection put up the system rules otherwise proceed to the tipping page where the other tipsters are posting. By saying that I am not saying tips are not appreciated. They are and I even have a place tip thread there myself that started as a system [rules supplied] but now are straight handicapped tips.
It would be nice here to go back to trialing and improving sytems that have exposed rules.
Chrome Prince
15th April 2006, 02:32 PM
Crash, I do agree with you, but there is a very big problem involved in revealing rules to good systems.
I personally have revealed the exact rules to three very good systems in the past including works in progress and ideas, only to have them ripped from the forum and republished both in the media and also on the internet.
In fact, I had intended to have these ideas and systems on the forum for people to use free of charge of course, but when they have been poached and resold for profit, that's where I draw the line.
There are many well known "vulchers" out there scanning forums such as this for their next article or webpage or system offering.
I think I will be putting my ideas in the tipping forum.
Question to management....
Is it possible to offer the actual rules to the systems published via email, where we can weed out the practice of poaching?
darkydog2002
15th April 2006, 03:39 PM
Here,s one for you .
2 YO RACES ONLY
TOP WEIGHT
FAV
WON LAST START
SAME DISTANCE
SAME JOCKEY.
Cheers.
darky
crash
15th April 2006, 05:13 PM
Crash, I do agree with you, but there is a very big problem involved in revealing rules to good systems.
I personally have revealed the exact rules to three very good systems in the past including works in progress and ideas, only to have them ripped from the forum and republished both in the media and also on the internet.
In fact, I had intended to have these ideas and systems on the forum for people to use free of charge of course, but when they have been poached and resold for profit, that's where I draw the line.
There are many well known "vulchers" out there scanning forums such as this for their next article or webpage or system offering.
I think I will be putting my ideas in the tipping forum.
Question to management....
Is it possible to offer the actual rules to the systems published via email, where we can weed out the practice of poaching?
I see your point and it is a dilemma Chrome but what has been taking over here is system trialling. To me anyway [and obviously management] that is abusing the forum for potential personal benefit, not mutual benefit. Kills it for everyone with harmless intentions [PPM is a good example of innocent intentions]. When one system turns to 4 being trailed where does it stop? One person dominating the whole page trialling their systems that's where it stops and as about as interesting as watching paint dry for the rest of us.
darkydog2002
18th April 2006, 02:46 PM
AHJAYS
WON LAST START IN 14 DAYS
1100 - 1800 M
C or TD
PURPLEHEART 68
LAST START IN 15 DAYS
1000- 1600
C or TD
Must be in the 1st 2 lines of betting.
Wonder if anyone followed through with these 2 ?
Cheers.
darky.
darkydog2002
19th April 2006, 11:04 AM
A nice original thought but no action ???
Cheers.
darky.
darkydog2002
19th April 2006, 07:19 PM
Bet the 1st /2nd and 3rd favorites.
Fav = $15
2nd FAV = $10
3rd FAV = $7
Cheers.
darky.
Management
19th April 2006, 07:21 PM
....There are many well known "vulchers" out there scanning forums such as this for their next article or webpage or system offering.
I think I will be putting my ideas in the tipping forum.
Question to management....
Is it possible to offer the actual rules to the systems published via email, where we can weed out the practice of poaching?
We are not sure this will "weed out the practice of poaching". People who are unscrupulous will join e-mailing lists.
Management.
darkydog2002
19th April 2006, 09:08 PM
TOP 3 RATED IN WIZARD
LAST START WITHIN 14 DAYS
DROP IN CLASS
DROP IN FIELD STRENGTH
Cheers.
darky.
duxgutz
19th April 2006, 09:23 PM
Darky,
I'm just curious.
Is the nswtab's dfs form the same as the wizard?
Its all set out pretty much the same, or, is it just similar?
------------------------------------------------------
"Anybody is capable of anything"
darkydog2002
19th April 2006, 09:31 PM
I believe it is. ( from the Warren Block organization- everyrace).
Cheers.
darky.
darkydog2002
20th April 2006, 08:57 AM
FAV
BOTTOM WEIGHT OR WITHIN 1 KG OF BOTTOM WEIGHT.
I,d assume you wouldn,t get many bets though with this one.
Cheers.
darky.
darkydog2002
1st May 2006, 07:15 AM
WT RATING 100
TIME RATING 100
15 - 18 POINTS
FS ( FIELD STRENGTH) - 5 to +1.5
Cheers.
darky.
crash
1st May 2006, 07:36 AM
The Wizard top pick as long as it doesn't start at more than $5.50 [good POT]
Mr. Logic
1st May 2006, 07:47 AM
The Wizard top pick as long as it doesn't start at more than $5.50 [good POT]
I am sorry, but something like this does not make logical sense to me. The aim in betting is to get the best possible odds about a horse.
1. Firstly what price are you using to determine the starting price? UniTab? NSW tote? SuperTab? Official bookmaker starting price? You see there are all different starting prices.
2. Now I can just imagine myself watching a horse on top firm from $9.00 to $8.00. NO, I won't back it. It firms from $8.00 to $7.00. NO, I won't back it. It firms from $7.00 to $6.00. NO, I won't back it. Why? Because it hasn't reached $5.50. Personally I would feel rather stupid waiting for a horse to firm from $9.00 all the way to $5.50 before I back it. Personally I would feel rather stupid taking $5.50 about a horse when I could have got $9.00.
crash
1st May 2006, 07:56 AM
You might start with a 'please explain' before going off with your 'logic' mr. logic [the system has the figures to back it up].
'Horse on top at $8' ?? Which races do you follow, 18+ horse fields [only]?
Mr. Logic
1st May 2006, 08:49 AM
Crash,
1. You haven't explained how YOU decide what starting price is.
2. You only know the starting price AFTER the race. Now that's not much good to me if I want to place a bet BEFORE the race. But it's fine for systems that retrofit results!
crash
1st May 2006, 11:12 AM
Logic,
1. You never asked
2. Your being silly
-------------------------------------------------
The next wizard system.
1.Back any Chris Scholtz tips that do not exceed $5 SP or close to it [1 or 2 min. before the jump obviously]. Monitored 106 selections [so far] return 126.85. Over $5.50 for the same period 93 selections for a return of $46.
You can do the same for Tony Brassel for [remarkably] very similar results.
For the first wizard system in my previous post for 369 races the wizards top selection not over $5.50 SP were 230 that returned 233.50. Over $5.50 there were 139 selections for a return of 106.50.
Moral of the story? It's a hard yard to make a profit consistently punting on tips at over $5.50. I'm sure the loss results would apply to any good tipster or even punter doing their own tipping on a full card.
La Mer
1st May 2006, 11:31 AM
Logic,
1. You never asked
2. Your being silly
-------------------------------------------------
The next wizard system.
1.Back any Chris Scholtz tips that do not exceed $5 SP or close to it [1 or 2 min. before the jump obviously]. Monitored 106 selections [so far] return 126.85. Over $5.50 for the same period 93 selections for a return of $46.
But it's a legit question to ask, SP is only a given after the race, what source do you use before the race - one of the totes, IAS, Sportingbet?
They can and all do differ quite regularly on prices even up to the start of a race.
crash
1st May 2006, 12:15 PM
At $1 unit bets, it doesn't take a mathematician to work out that over the [smallish] number of bets involved we are talking very small differences
between the major totes available to the average Joe [not AIS etc, but pub prices]?
Gain a little on one race bet with Uni tab over the other 2 totes, lose it on another etc.etc. Put all the 3 tote prices through the wash for a year and I'd be very surprised if there was much difference between them. I can't prove that, but I'd like to see someone prove [not anecdotally] otherwise when it comes to the average small punter.
Were talking semantics here and it IS 'silly' and certainly not in the light hearted spirit of these system posts here. Typically, the nit-pickers are those who never put a system up themselves or at least not that I can ever remember[?] Correct me if I am wrong and point me to them.
Having said that, yes you have a right to your opinions
and that goes without saying, so please just continue with whatever you are doing, I have some paint I'd like to watch dry.
La Mer
1st May 2006, 12:24 PM
Having said that, yes you have a right to your opinions
and that goes without saying, so please just continue with whatever you are doing, I have some paint I'd like to watch dry.
Well watching paint dry is probably a better activity than being concerned about back-fitted systems - at least there is less chance of losing. :-)
crash
1st May 2006, 01:10 PM
I agree totally La mer, except the ones I've presented here were actually carried out week by week over 12 Saturdays and were not back-fitted.
I don't own and would never buy a stats data bank. I'd [also] rather watch paint dry than sit around with a data bank [if I had one] working out rules to fit past results. However, each to their own and I'm sure many get hours of pleasure doing just that. Who knows, they might even make some money from it[?] Not my cuppa chow though.
Chrome Prince
1st May 2006, 08:37 PM
I don't own and would never buy a stats data bank. I'd [also] rather watch paint dry than sit around with a data bank [if I had one] working out rules to fit past results.
Crash, I know you do things differently and that's fine, but have you ever considered the "other" benefits of a database apart from "retrofitting results".
I write this as a general concept about databases, not just because I sell one.
Even if you start your own, there is a good deal to be gained from the information contained within a database.
Databases are great mythbusters.
They are great ways to test things hypothetically without wasting hard earned on real time testing, when you're chasing a losing proposition.
A database is a tool, how the user uses it, defines how good it is, not the information within.
A database can be useless, even with an abundance of good information, if the user interprets the data in the wrong manner, or "builds" systems in the wrong manner (retroftting and illogical rules. pinning hopes on a couple of longshots etc.).
A database is also a very good way to identify trends and patterns - real ones, and reap the rewards.
I've actually posted some phenomenal systems on here, but let the postings die a natural death, and nobody seems to be using them. They work - months and years later.
That's why I'm happy for others to have the same info as me, nobody will be using it the way I do.
I guess to each their own, what I'm saying is don't rule it out.
I post this as a user, not a vendor.
partypooper
2nd May 2006, 12:20 AM
Crash, I'm entering an argument without having participated b4, but on the question of the 3 totes, you are probably right that if each was compared over a year there would not be much difference, however if you compare best of 3, compared to any single one there would be a significant difference!!
In fact, the difference would probable the diff betewween winning and losing, I"M SERIOUS IT'S THAT CLOSE!
Chrome Prince
2nd May 2006, 12:53 AM
Partypooper, yes there is a big difference in the three totes.
Depending on the price bracket you are betting on, VicTAB stands out head and shoulders above the rest for the best dividend.
Able to get REAL best tote with UNRESTRICTED bet limits, would see most systems with minimal loss turn to profit.
It's not about picking winners, or how good a judge you are, it's definitely about getting the best price on your selection, providing the system or rated horses perform reasonably well overall.
crash
2nd May 2006, 02:54 AM
Chrome,
I thought I'd quote the other part of my post you partly quoted:
.............. However, each to their own and I'm sure many get hours of pleasure doing just that. Who knows, they might even make some money from it[?] Not my cuppa chow though.
So I am agreeing 100% will your post.
I'm just not 'wired' for data bank use to be personally profitable and also I have never in my life paid for anything to do with improving my punting ability except a form guide, although I do subscribe to a very good one from a site that gives me live 3 tab totes. The cost of that service is no more than buying the sportsman and winning post every week [some weeks the wizard as well], which I used to do. I also have never paid to sleep with a woman but I can assure you I am no longer a virgin:-)
When I am totally fed-up with handicapping or I'm traveling a lot [something I used to do], I have subscribed in the past to a profitable tipping service, where someone else is putting in the hard yards. That is about the extent of my spending on the punt, apart from my actual bets. That's the way I'm wired.
If I wasn't into handicapping, a data bank would be the first thing I'd buy. I do mess with systems [obviously], but the enjoyment of working them out is an extension of handicapping. I don't want to, or need to know if they were profitable over the last 5 years. I just want to bet them for small amounts and have a bit of fun as an aside from my main betting efforts. Rarely do they incur serious % loss [or profit:-)].
crash
2nd May 2006, 03:18 AM
Crash, I'm entering an argument without having participated b4, but on the question of the 3 totes, you are probably right that if each was compared over a year there would not be much difference, however if you compare best of 3, compared to any single one there would be a significant difference!!
In fact, the difference would probable the diff betewween winning and losing, I"M SERIOUS IT'S THAT CLOSE!
Hi Party,
Yes and yes. Your dead right and that was the main reason for my thread here on betting accounts, as I have been bit slack over the past year in keeping up with what's good. I have 4 accounts now> IAS, betzy, sportsbet and stab which overall is probably the best of the Totes long term [Purser did a good article on them once and that was his findings too].
Of the NT accounts, Spotsbet the best profit wise for the place bet, but betzy is easily the sweetest account to use.
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