Honest Answer

[kenchar]

Just curious how many of you out there genuinely win on a consistent basis, doing your selections for the day and putting your bets on all at once in the morning.

I cannot do this and freely admit it, and the ONLY way I can come out ahead is by watching every race every day, NOT obviously betting every race but waiting for something to show.

There are many variations what I look for and a classic today was Pakenham R5 No7 magnetic.
NOTHING said about the plunge on sky as they don't tell Melb races anymore.
NOTHING said on 2KY ( where I listen to Melb races) TVN don't know as I am optus.

First starter absolutely backed off the map on bookie sites and tabs.
Unitab in particular 25's into 5's.

What does this tell me, no info on tv or radio so are not trying to get sheep to follow but a genuine go on a first starter with inside knowledge.

That's the ONLY way I can make a quid out of this game, if any of you out there can do it the way of my first paragraph I take my hat off to you.

Cheers

[partypooper]

Kenchar, problem is that no-one wants to temp fate, as the profit is very meagre (in terms of %) and just a slight shift will it turn into a loss situation. It requires constant monitoring, to up-date, change things , add rules etc. etc. so as not actually get into that loss situation in the first place.
eg.
One of my golden rules was never to bet if the set weight this time is more /less than 3.5 k'gs than the set weight last run (ignoring claims)
This had always served me well, but I ran a query on the last 1000 bets recently and where selection was deleted because of this rule the deleted horse showed nearly 40% profit on the win and 23 % on the place (a hell of a lot more than the actual qualifiers) So now am having to take a real close look at this one.

The honest answer is that I have made a profit overall going into my 3rd year of betting now (controlled betting that is) but I DARE not say that I will definitly make a similar profit in the next 3 years, I think/hope I will but that's as far as I am prepared to stick my neck out.

As far as making a living from the punt, well I have aspirations but not yet. The next stage is very serious stuff, and so far haven't taken the plunge so to speak.

[kenchar]

The honest answer is that I have made a profit overall going into my 3rd year of betting now (controlled betting that is) but I DARE not say that I will definitly make a similar profit in the next 3 years,.
PP,
I congratulate you on making a profit for the past 3 years, as far as the next 3 it is the total unknown to all of us.
This is the most changing game one could ever play.
What works one year will not work the next if doing basically the same thing, that's why I like what I do as it varies everyday, BUT I am still of the same opinion of what I was a few years ago, I put X amount aside, on that X amount I have lived but if the X amount gets blown away I will be out of the punt forever.
I am still a firm believer than one cannot be a part time punter and succeed, it is an absolute full time game and if you are not prepared to be on line basically 7 days a week looking at what is happening then give it away, unless it is a hobby.

Cheers.

[wesmip1]

kenchar,

I have previously put my selections on here every night for 3 systems I use consistently and all produced a profit. I used one month of the forum as trialling and then continued to use them in private. All 3 continue to show a good profit. These selections are put on the night before so I usually don't even know any track condition upgrades which can be a pain sometimes...

Anyway it can be done but its still a lot of work.

Good Luck

[marcus25]

Just curious how many of you out there genuinely win on a consistent basis, doing your selections for the day and putting your bets on all at once in the morning.

Hi Kenchar!
Yes, I can honestly say that. We live an hour from the city and I commute every day so I have to be early.
I put my bets in by 6 AM every weekday, on victab.
I am lucky? unlucky? that my rating does not give the proverbial about barriers or track condition, so it doesn' matter if it changes.
Do I make a living out of it? I think I could but no need for it at the moment.

On Saturdays I am far more selective, win bets only if more than $2.50 and place if more than $2.00 on the first selection.
Good luck.

[partypooper]

Kenchar, just by way of a post script. I actually bet week to week in the sense that say I have 4 selections on Saturday, that is actually calculated as ONE bet eg. say I back 1 winner at 5-1 and 3 losers, that is calculated as 1x 6-4 winner i.e. 4 out 6 in. and then my next bet NEXT Saturday could be say 8 bets so whatever my stake is is divided by 8, and so on. I actually like betting like this as the time between collects is reduced dramatically, and I have heaps of time to analyse everything b4 the next bet is placed.

[crash]

...As far as making a living from the punt, well I have aspirations but not yet. The next stage is very serious stuff, and so far haven't taken the plunge so to speak.

Don't do it Party, don't do it !!!

A profitable yaer on the punt is one thing, enjoyable. You win some years and you lose others, but not much if your a half decent punter. 3yrs. punting [too early to count your chickens] and making a small profit Party? Good on ya' but your losing years will happen too.

Step up to some serious punting money and try to make a living from it in this negative expectation game and it's a new paradigm, with many other factors coming into play that can easily finacialy snooker anyone, especially if your not well heeled enough through other assets making an earn to be able to sustain a bad year or two. All Pro punters have their bad years just like bookies do. Their Pro punters too and they have the odds on their side !!

[kenchar]

Good to see a few of you doing it, and as I said I take my hat off to you.


PP,
The only thing I can suggest if you want to have a shot is to find some method that you can bet on daily and try to make a small profit everyday.
This way your bet size is not too big and the daily profits really add up at the end of the month.

Good punting.

[partypooper]

Crash, yes I'm aware of all that. Trying to get ones head around thinking REAL long term say 10 years is very difficult, as you say in that time frame you would probably have losing years depending on where the line is drawn ie. Jan1st-31st Dec etc etc. I've already had periods where I was literally treading water for months on end, but can handle that now. As I've said before if you've had a few winning years before dipping a bit it is bearable, but what if you start with a losing year,????........... ooow!

[marcus25]

As I've said before if you've had a few winning years before dipping a bit it is bearable, but what if you start with a losing year,????........... ooow!
Yes party!
That's the killer of many a good system or ratings punter's dream.
I think I mentioned it before, I done some research for others, on a system that proved to be extremely profitable even after, must be six years by now, but depending on where you started the cycle, you could have lost a packet for a short time.
But if you know that in the end, and I am talking here, weeks not months let alone years, you can make a profit, then I can't see why not do it!?

I am a ratings man, but if you are using systems you would be in a better position to start betting as a pro, simply because you can have two or more profitable systems running along, at the same time.
Good luck

[partypooper]

Marcus25, thanks for the positive feedback, Crash means well I know and has some very valid points. Interestingly, yes I do have several different approaches in the mathematical sense (or staking plan sense) but all of my methods are RATINGS based or have a ratings content, as you say even if one idea has an "off" period, chances are that the others will prop it up.

I envy Crash's ability to rate a race, I cannot do it here, I rely on "other" peoples ratings, but when it comes to negatives, I've done reasonably well with property, flying in the face of LOTS of people who were too scared to have a go themselves, shot me down in flames and told me I was an idiot and couldn't possibly make it,....... they are all strangely quiet now!!

At the same time a word of encouragment is gratefully accepted.

[crash]

Party,

Here is a bit more encouragement. You are doing fine as you are. Bump your bets up a bit by all means, but I read you as one very cautious punter. You are smart enough to know what that means as it has been mentioned in many serious articles about punting so I don't have to paraphrase. Sound advice that should not be ignored. We are who we are. Pro. Punters are of a 'type' first and foremost. Just like successful athletes. You don't 'decide' to become one.