losing streak

[Mad Gambler]

How do I calculate my losing steak based on a strike rate of 34%.

mad gambler

[Bhagwan]

34% expected run of outs is 16.

[La Mer]

34% expected run of outs is 16.

Bhagwan, Your answer is too simplistic - the run of outs of 16 can only be in reference to the number or bets - do you mean a run of outs of 16 in a 100, 200, 300? The expected run of outs is dependent on the number of bets, eg.

if there are 10,000 bets then there is 56% probability that there will be a run of outs of 20 but only 42% probability that there will be a run of outs of 21;

if there are 1,000 bets then there is 63% probability that there will be a run of outs of 14 and a 48% probability that there will be a run of outs of 15;

if there are 100 bets then there is 54% probability that there will be a run of outs of 9 but only 40% probability that there will be a run of outs of 10.

[wesmip1]

This might be more helpful : LLS = longest losing streak.


For a Win % of 34.0% over 100,000 trials, the expected LLS are ...

Exp # of LS of length 5 is 4258 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 6 is 2810 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 7 is 1855 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 8 is 1224 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 9 is 808 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 10 is 533 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 11 is 352 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 12 is 232 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 13 is 153 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 14 is 101 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 15 is 67 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 16 is 44 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 17 is 29 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 18 is 19 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 19 is 13 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00%
Exp # of LS of length 20 is 8 Prob of one or more LS is 99.98%
Exp # of LS of length 21 is 6 Prob of one or more LS is 99.60%
Exp # of LS of length 22 is 4 Prob of one or more LS is 97.38%
Exp # of LS of length 23 is 2 Prob of one or more LS is 90.96%
Exp # of LS of length 24 is 2 Prob of one or more LS is 79.54%
Exp # of LS of length 25 is 1 Prob of one or more LS is 64.91%
Exp # of LS of length 26 is 1 Prob of one or more LS is 49.90%
Exp # of LS of length 27 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 36.63%
Exp # of LS of length 28 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 25.99%
Exp # of LS of length 29 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 18.02%
Exp # of LS of length 30 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 12.29%
Exp # of LS of length 31 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 8.29%
Exp # of LS of length 32 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 5.55%
Exp # of LS of length 33 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 3.70%
Exp # of LS of length 34 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 2.46%
Exp # of LS of length 35 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 1.63%
Exp # of LS of length 36 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 1.08%
Exp # of LS of length 37 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.71%
Exp # of LS of length 38 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.47%
Exp # of LS of length 39 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.31%
Exp # of LS of length 40 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.21%

[Alex H.]

Hi Wesmip,

How did you arrive at that data and is it possible to get calculations for other strike rates?

Alex.

[La Mer]

Hi Wesmip, How did you arrive at that data and is it possible to get calculations for other strike rates? Alex.


Go to http://twonix.com/ & download the risk or ruin calculator (link found in left-hand menu bar).

[Alex H.]

Sweet! Thanks.

Alex.

[crash]

Go to http://twonix.com/ & download the risk or ruin calculator (link found in left-hand menu bar).


La Mer,

I'm not sure if it was you who mentioned it, but the guy who wrote the software for that ROR calculator was supposed to be developing software that would auto place a bet on a selection[s] if a certain price range was available a few min. before the jump with the TAB [or whoever]. Was that you and if so have you heard anything more about it? Thanks.

[La Mer]

La Mer, I'm not sure if it was you who mentioned it, but the guy who wrote the software for that ROR calculator was supposed to be developing software that would auto place a bet on a selection[s] if a certain price range was available a few min. before the jump with the TAB [or whoever]. Was that you and if so have you heard anything more about it? Thanks.

Crash, Nick Aubrey is the guys name - he's the brains, the other Nick is the software developer. Visit the site mentioned earlier in this thread & you can read all about their software.

[woof43]

Win%=34
Loss%=66

LOSSES CONFIDENCE:
5 87.48%
6 91.73%
7 94.54%
8 96.40%
9 97.62%
10 98.43%
11 98.96%
12 99.32%
13 99.55%
14 99.70%
15 99.80%
16 99.87%
17 99.91%

Use the first 99%
Formula = 1-(Loss% ^ Losses) for excel users

example 1-(.66^12)=99.32%

[wesmip1]

La Mer,

Thanks for passing on the site ..

The ROR software is quite good and thats exactly where I got the results from.

Good Luck

[marcus25]

If you only want to find out how many losing runs you have for a certain win percentage here is a rough and ready code snippet you can put into a dummy macro.
'----------------------------------
Dim x, y, z As Single

z = (100 - ActiveCell.Value) / 100

If ActiveCell.Value <> "" Then

For y = 1 To 100
If x <= 0.992 Then
x = 1 - (z ^ y)
Else: Exit For
End If
'Debug.Print x
Next
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = y
Else: MsgBox "Type in losing %!"
End If
'---------------------------
I put in (0.992) 99.2 % is close enough for accuracy, you can change it.
Once you created the macro just type in a WINNING percentage number into a cell and run the macro. Note! keep that cell as active!!! The number of outs will replace the percentage in the cell.
I know little about Excel, but can guarantee that this code will work.
Most of you can make a better macro out of it than I ever could.
Good luck with it.

[marcus25]

Here is a text file with the likely longest outs calculated to both 99.2% and 99.99%, from 5 to 90% win strikerate.
Hope it helps.
Cheers