thekey
8th August 2002, 09:54 AM
Here is a formula for working out what losing sequences you can expect:
Bets = 1/(1-SR)^n
where n number of losers in a row
Bets = no. bets before you could expect such a sequence
SR = strike rate as a decimal.
eg. favs
SR = 0.3 (30%)
n=10 (10 losers in a row)
1/(1-0.3)^10 = 35
so you could expect ten favs to lose in a row once every 35 bets.
This scared the crap out of me the first time I saw it!
This seemed a bit "off" to me initially but if you consider it this way it makes more sense.
If 11 lose in a row that is 2 times ten losses in a row. So if you go 70 bets and have one losing sequence of 11, you have actually had two losing sequences of 10 which averages out to 1/35.
note : you can expect 11 losers in a row once every 51 bets (@30%SR).
Bets = 1/(1-SR)^n
where n number of losers in a row
Bets = no. bets before you could expect such a sequence
SR = strike rate as a decimal.
eg. favs
SR = 0.3 (30%)
n=10 (10 losers in a row)
1/(1-0.3)^10 = 35
so you could expect ten favs to lose in a row once every 35 bets.
This scared the crap out of me the first time I saw it!
This seemed a bit "off" to me initially but if you consider it this way it makes more sense.
If 11 lose in a row that is 2 times ten losses in a row. So if you go 70 bets and have one losing sequence of 11, you have actually had two losing sequences of 10 which averages out to 1/35.
note : you can expect 11 losers in a row once every 51 bets (@30%SR).