Strike Rate of 57%

[Magic Flute]

I have created a program and tested it for 1 month (everyday @ VIC meetings only). The results shocked me, judge for yourself.

Week 1:Avg str rate = 58.57% $917.50($25EW)
Week 2:Avg str rate = 65.56% $492.50($25EW)
Week 3:Avg str rate = 61.60% $310.00($25EW)
Week 4:Avg str rate = 30.34% $590.00($25EW)

Races:177 Win:47 Place:54 Lose:76 Tri:7 Double:35

Net Profit for 4 weeks:$2310.00 + Trifecta:$1702.10 (box 3 for 28 races)
Strike Rate (win/place):57.06%

NOW, I know a bit about horses but nothing much about betting, strike rate etc...Can someone tell me if the above figures are ok, good or Shocking.

I have a spread sheet with the venue, money made/loss, daily strike rate etc...If you want to have a look, let me know.

P.S. some friends who have seen the program asked me why don't I try to sell it...Yeah right, if it's a good thing why sell it.

Anyway, tell me what you think.

Cheers

[thePedro]

Hi, Magic Flute

Your strike rate is quite impressive. You may be on to something.

I've just a cuople of thoughts,

A) Go back and check previous results at least 6 months or even 12 months if possible.

B) another important thing to look at is the POT, or Profit/Percentage On Turnover. The higher this Percentage the better the system because it means that you are risking less for more.

eg. So for 177 bets @ $25 EW

Profit On Turnover = $2310
Outlay = $8850 ($25EW x 177)

Percentage On Turnover = $2310 divided by $8850 = 26.1%

Also work out POT on the win separate from the place. You might achieve a better POT just betting $50 for the win instead of $25EW.

keep it up! and happy punting.

[becareful]

Magic Flute,

By itself strike rate means NOTHING - it is the profit on turnover that is important - you can have a strike rate of 75% and still lose money or a strike rate of 10% and make a killing - it depends on the average dividend.

Having said that the POT of 26% is quite impressive as ThePedro said although I agree you need to work out the POT for the win and place seperately to see if each way is your best option or if you would be better off with Win only or Place only.

And the most important thing is 1 month of data is not enough to judge a system on - as many of the posters here will attest you can often find a system that looks great for a month and then falls in a hole and breaks the bank. You need at least 6 months of data and look at other states as well.

If your only testing is over the last month in Victoria then I would be very wary of using the system. In my experience Winter racing in Victoria is VERY different from Spring/Summer/Autumn racing. My own system produced very average results in Vic in July (although I only bet on Dead or better tracks so I didn't do much Victorian betting at all!) but still worked well in NSW/Qld. I know of one professional punter who goes on holiday for the whole of July!

Anyway I suggest you trial your system on an extended period of data and see if the results hold up. Best of luck.

[Equine Investor]

Magic Flute, I will have a look at those spreadsheets if you like. As the other two say, the statistics are not over a long enough period of time, but so far so good.
You may well be onto something. But you need to run it on "paper" for a longer period before putting $$$ on it.

Email me

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2004-02-28 20:52 ]</font>

[enjay]

Magic Flute. I too would like to look at your spredsheets and evaluate...

My email is

sabu@northnet.com.au.

[Magic Flute]

Thanks everyone for your valuable advise, very much appreciated.

Cheers

P.S. Enjay & Enquine, I've e-mailed you the spread sheets. Get back to me with feedback.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-08-09 22:47 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

You will find ,that its a very strong idea to track it for a min. of 150+ before you put any big money on it.

I hope it pans out for you .
That POT is very impressive , I think you will find your POT will be greater if betting for the win only.

To work out what size bank you need to bet level stakes for a win .
See what your longest run of outs is over a min. of 150+ races , then multiply it by 3.5
E.G. If yor longest run of outs was say 25 before striking a winner, your bank should be approx. 25*3.5=$88.00 for every $1.00 bet.

Hi Magic Flute, I would be very appreciative of your spreadsheet. My email is drooby@iprimus.com.au

[Equine Investor]

Magic Flute,

Took a long and in depth look at your spreadsheet.
Fundamentally your rating system is extremely good at picking good priced winners, so you are definitely onto something here.
As with any plan you will have losing days and a run of losses, but your plan has a great average dividend and strike rate is also good. So providing your ratings are consistent, I think this plan is truely a winner.
Through the bad times you must have the courage to stick to it and not modify, as essentially, your plan IS sound.

All the best!

[Goldcoaster]

Magic Flute I would love to have a look at your spreadsheet. My email is steve_roach34@hotmail.com
Thanks

[Magic Flute]

G'day everyone

I really appreciate the positive feed back from you all.

Bhagwan, just wondering why do you multiply the outs by "3.5". In the example that you gave, for 25 outs your bank should be approx. 25*3.5=$88.00 for every $1.00 bet. Does this mean that if you are betting ("Investing" sounds better) $25EW you need a bank of 50*88=$4400 ? Also, what is the meaning of "level stakes". As I said before I don't know much about betting, but I surely will learn a couple of things from you guys.

thePedro, thanks mate for explaining how to work out the "POT".

Equine Investor, thank you so much for your feedback.

Drooby & Goldcoaster, I've e-mailed you the spread sheet for perusal. Please get back to me with your feedback.

I will work out the POT for Win only & Place only and post the results. Once again thanks everyone.

[GEOFF]

Magic Flute,

Your stats are very impressive but agree with other comments that you need to trial for much longer period.
I would be interested in your spredsheet data to make comment. Please email to
geoff.wild@michell.com.au
Cheers

Hi Magic flute. Any thing to do with spread sheets I would be interested in, I don't know a lot about them so any instructions to go with them would help. With thanks Leslie

[Magic Flute]

Amateur: It would be good if you gave me your e-mail address.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Yes, that`s right Magic Flute.
Your longest run of outs in a row multiplied by 3.5 .
It`s a simlple formulae that seens to work over time .
If your betting each way ,your longest run of outs might be only 10, therefore your bank should be 3.5 times that to with stand the enevitable run of either, realy short priced horses getting up all day,beating your selection or rank outsiders knocking your selection off all day or month.
It can get frustrating , no matter how strong one is.

Once you have at least 150+ results in front of you, you will see what I mean.
The averages will seem to change somewhat .

The level stakes question, means betting the same amount on each selection regardless of price , which is probable what you are doing now.

[Magic Flute]

Bhagwan: thanks for your reply.

I've just finished the ratings for Sandown saturday 10/08/02, yeah yeah I know it's late, bla bla bla. It's for people who are interested in knowing the progress of my program. If I have time, I'll post next week's ratings before the races (Saturday morning).

Ok, here we go (the ratings are of course, the number next to the horse's name)

Race 1
Acee DeeCee :107 - 1st $3.90/1.80
Cyberiad : 93 - Still running
King Wells : 70 - Stopped at the well

Race 2
Green Pick :99 - Had enough
Foreign Affair :45 - 3rd $1.80
Old Man :35 - 1st $6.20/1.60

Race 3
Cocktail Evening :96 - 1st $9.60/2.90
Raven Protector :69 - Unplaced
She's Got Charm :59 - Disappointing

Race 4 - Wipe Out!
Fashion Era :62
Red Roxie :55
Palace Archway :51

Race 5 - (Trifecta $127.40)
Brave Chief :51 - 1st $5.30/1.80
Freegold :51 - 2nd $2.80
Natch :46 - 3rd $1.30

Race 6
Chairman's Choice :75 - 1st $1.80/1.80 Dead Heat
Spring Warrior :75 - 3rd $3.40
Thumper :46 - Got Thumped!

Race 7
Skewiff :104 - Unlucky???
Miss Lala :82 - 2nd $3.50
La Serenade :72 - 1st $7.80/3.00

Race 8
Fraar's Turn :58 - 3rd $1.80
Calling O'Reilly :56 - Over rated ???
Radjhabelle :53 - Did you see the odds ?

Investing $25EW on the top rating:
Outlay = $400
Turnover = $567.50
Profit = $167.50
Strike Rate = 62.50% POT = 41.88%
(Are the above figures correct?)

Yep, that's it. Not bad I suppose? Feedback please. For those who are going to say that anyone can post ratings after the race...PLEASE DO NOT BOTHER! As for the rest I'm looking forward to read your opinions.

Aurevoir.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-08-12 23:37 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Magic Flute,

Don't bother what people say, if they can't be constructive, then they are of no use to anyone or themselves. All systems and tests are STARTED in retrospect before being monitored for the future.

I can see that your ratings method has merit, as reflected by those spreadsheets you sent me.

My question is - Do you back the top 3 rated horses or only the top rated? Also do you rate and bet every race or are you selective?
From your spreadsheets, noticed that you selected the main races for the day or did you just eliminate hurdles and maidens?

[Ben]

Hello Magic Flute,

I am only new here so hello everyone. Do your ratings work any where other than Melbourne?

Could I please have a look at your spread sheets?

email like_2win@yahoo.com.au

[becareful]

Magic Flute,

Have you looked at your past results backing Win Only on first selection? Based on Saturday if you had put $50 Win Only on top rater (instead of $25 EW) then your results would have been:

Outlay = $400
Dividends = $1030
Profit = $630
POT = 157.5%

As you say this is only a single day but in my experience Win only betting will often give better POT as long as your selection system is sound. Of course you need to be a bit more conservative with your bets with win only as you will have longer runs of outs.

[TheDuck]

Hello Magic Flute,

Seems there's a spreadsheet floating around that has caught some interest. I would also be interested if you could send it along. I would like to put a 'false favourite dutch staking plan' against it and see if they're compatible.

Thanks in advance,

dthoml1n7y2@hotmail.com
-Duck

Hi magic flute, Sorry about the address, Here it is. ConstantineDblc@aol.com.Amateur

Magic flute. Thought i would emend my address.Its ConstantineDblc@aol.com
-Amateur

[croft]

Magic Flute.
I would love to see the spreadsheet if you don't mind sending it.
Thanks.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: croft on 2002-08-21 21:52 ]</font>

[thekey]

Thought I might get in on the action too Magic Flute.

A copy of your spreadsheet would be much appreciated:

blusk@racenet.zzn.com

PS. feel like I've just rushed in and taken 6/4 after 3/1 was bet.

[Magic Flute]

Thanks everyone for your input, much appreciated.

Equine Investor: All the testing have been performed using only the top ranking. If you have the capital you could use all 3. Usually I eliminate Hurdles, s-chase, races with more than 3 debutants etc...

becareful: You are right, investing on win only gives a better profit but also longer runs of outs.

Ben: I have tested mostly Vic races. Other states, I assume will be as good but didn't test long enough to be able to give a verdict.

As I said before I suck when it comes to betting, so if anyone can suggest ways of betting using the stats provided. Like I've just found out that win only is better than win/place DOH!

If time permits, I'll try to post more ratings.

[kenworth]

Hi Magic Flute!
Could you please send me the spreadsheet also if it is not to much trouble, would appreciate it.
Thanks Ken.
e-mail address is : kenfinde@tpg.com.au

[Magic Flute]

Ratings for Sunday 11/08/02 - Flemington

RACE 2
Kattavia 67 1st $2.30/$1.20
Purple Road 51 x
Mister Expert 48 3rd $1.70

RACE 3
Steel King 94 2nd $1.20
Go Tauit 72 x
Royal Calcutta 56 1st $43.90/$7.30

RACE 4
Big Amy 61 x
Splash Of Love 46 x
Best Intentions 39 3rd $3.70

RACE 5
Fields Of Omagh 120 1st $9.80/$2.90
Tears Royal 89 x
Pindi Ridge 83 2nd $4.10

RACE 6
Piermont 82 3rd $1.90
RockOftheAges 68 2nd $1.50
Tribal Class 57 x

RACE 8
Work and Tumble 100 x
Auckland Blues 76 1st $2.50/$1.50
Century Hawk 75 x


Cheers


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-08-13 23:34 ]</font>

[peakester]

Dear M.F - I would appreciate anything to unravel this complicated art of betting. Can you please email the spreadsheet to me?
Cheers!

peakester@useoz.com

[Big Louie]

Gidday Magic Flute!

Have just come across this thread and I am fascinated.

Any chance of sending me the spreadsheet?

Much appreciated and will try to give you an opinion, for what it's worth.

Thanks & cheers
Big Louie

e-mail address is : cvlahos@qbe.com

[bigmac]

Hi Magic, would appreciate a decco at your spreadsheet,if you don't mind.Thanking you in advance . Only new on this forum and look forward to many more interesting posts, keep them coming!
Address is
upinclass@hotmail.com

[Paddy]

Magic Flute,

I eagerly await sample of your ratings posted prior to the event.

[Ron50]

Hi Magic Flute,
Just a new chum to this forum,but would love to see your spreadsheets.Good Luck.
Regards,
Ron

nald105@yahoo.com

[Shaun]

hi Mr flute....well would love a look at it aswell......lol.....
shaun2166@hotmail.com

[Equine Investor]

Hennesy Tennesee tootles the Flute and the name is something grand - a credit to old Ireland boys is McNamara's band!

La Da Di Dah Dah..

:wink:

[Paddy]

Into the street the Piper stept,
Smiling first a little smile,
As if he knew what magic slept
In his quiet pipe the while;

:wink:

Then, like a musical adept,
To blow the pipe his lips he wrinkled,
And green and blue his sharp eyes twinkled,
Like a candle-flame where salt is sprinkled;

:wink:

And ere three shrill notes the pipe uttered,
You heard as if an army muttered;
And the muttering grew to a grumbling;
And the grumbling grew to a mighty rumbling;

:wink: :wink:
_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2002-08-17 08:41 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2002-08-17 08:44 ]</font>

[Magic Flute]

G'Day all

The ratings for today. *** SLOW Track ONLY *** M-Valley

R1
Midday Matinee - 68
Granniah - 67
Chimu - 51

R5
Ugachaka - 96
Dandy Kid - 94
Napping - 79

R6
Shaye Spice - 105
Misyegic - 101
Rubitano - 100

R7
Thong Classic - 100
Star Doc - 97
Court Of Jewels - 84

R8
Wannaway - 80
Naareada - 74
Bellered - 73

Sorry could not post earlier, my PC crashed last night and I lost everything. Good thing I had Backups.

All the people who e-mailed me, could you please e-mail me again as I have lost my address book.

Cheers and happy punting.

[luckylouie]

Hi, I'd also like to look at the spreadsheets if possible. I'm new to all of this so I probably won't be able to give you any helpful feedback, but may be able to come up with something. Have you had a chance to go back and check results for other months as some of the people have suggested? If so what were they? Good luck and thanks for sharing your information.

[Paddy]

Oh, I wear a bunch of shamrocks and a uniform of green
And I am the funniest lookin' Swede that you have ever seen
There's O'Briens and Ryans and Sheehans and Meehans, they come from Ireland,
But by yimminy, I'm the only Swede in MacNamara's band.

[yubet]

Hi Magic Flute,
I've just joined today after reading your input.This is the first time I've ever communicated in a forum,so i don't know if I am getting it right.

However,I would like to see your spreadsheets,and participate in what ever way possible.

Yours in Profit,yubet

[Rain Lover]

Gidday Flute.
I'm about 25 lengths behind the field but I'd like a squiz at your spreadsheet as that's my preferred method of sorting out the wheat from the chaff.
Email address is hkmunp@bigpond.com.
Ta

[yubet]

Hi Magic Flute,

I forgot to include my email address of yubet@idx.com.au

Sorry.

[Magic Flute]

G'day all

Ratings for Saturday 24/08/02 DEAD Track

Race 1
Bellered - 77
Lady Viola - 60
Brunette - 54

Race 2
Anyone We Know - 72
Freegold - 70
Southern Crown - 60

Race 3
Acee Dee Cee - 113
Step Ahead - 92
Rohatyn - 87

Race 5
Elegant Fashion - 100
Piper Star - 86
Don Eduardo - 77

Race 6
Eagle Rhythm - 100
El Nino - 75
Marlie - 72

Race 7
Miss Lala - 110
Shaye Spice - 98
Crimson Gem - 97

Race 8
Auckland Blues - 73
Cavallo Bruno - 60
Chiming Door - 58

Let's hope that today we will have some good returns.

Cheers.

[Paddy]

My calculations (NSWTAB) - outlay $1,050 ($25EW), return $875.00.

Don't give up Magic Flute, with two not-so-good weeks, based on your originally posted strike rates, you must be due for some super weeks.

[Magic Flute]

Thanks Paddy

Remember that to make good profit you have to invest everyday (to cover for possible losses). Day 1,2,3 could be really bad and then Day 4 is really good etc...So far (August, worst time to invest) has been ok, with some good Divs. If the Saturday Ratings happen to be the best/worse for the week, then it's just good/bad luck. I guess that with any system, you cannot rely on just one day! Still working on different formulae trying to improve the program further more.

By the way, on Saturday I backed up some goodies (my own pickings)- Sports @$32/$7.40, El Nino $11.00 and Cavalo Bruno $10 for the place. Oh yeah, was I happy!!!

Cheers

[Magic Flute]

No Ratings today as there are too many horses coming back from a spell and (I have to help the wife clean the house!).

I haven't quite worked out the formula for spells, so if anyone have suggestions...

MR5 #13 Sportsbrat looks inviting.

Cheers

[Equine Investor]

Magic Flute,

The formula that I use re First-Up ratings is this:

Allocated a points scale to previous first up performances.

E.G.

1/ Points for win first up in today's CLASS

2/ Points for placing first up in today's CLASS

3/ Points for win first up over today's race distance (+/- 200metres).

4/ Points for placing first up over today's race distance (+/- 200 metres).

How you weight the points is entirely up to you but I use a scale from maiden to group 1
and allocate points for all first up performances and take the top three points horses.

Just a suggestion.

It eliminates all first up horses which need two or three runs to show anything and also long distance horses.

Hope this helps a little.

[Magic Flute]

Thanks for that EI. I've been playing around with a new formula and tested it on Saturday races and I was amazed at some of the selections it returned.
MR2 - Reactive
MR4 - Karamazou
MR7 - Chairman's choice
MR8 - Ena's Treasure
SR3 - Pompeii
SR6 - Into the Night
SR7 - Sportsman
SR8 - Bedouin

If only I'd put money on all of them...Doesn't matter, the'll be a next time.

Has anyone heard of "The Winning Factor"? They sent a brochure to a friend of mine and when he called them, they appeared to have absolutely no idea of strike rate & Pot. And they do not provide past results until you purchase the program ($1500) because you would discover how they come up with their selections. HMMMM....

P.S Is anyone still interested about me posting the ratings every Saturday mornings ???

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-09-03 00:32 ]</font>

[bigmac]

re the winning factor. A friend had the same leaflet and asked to talk to a person who was using their system and was given a name in W.A.as a reference. It seems this is the only reference as I was also given the same name when I requested the reference as a way of 'double checking'. Of course the system works beautifully and makes her heaps of money! The operator of this Winning Factor is a guy by the name of Bruce Morpeth , who works out of Runaway Bay , in (you guessed it!)Q'land. Some time ago he was flogging a system called the "System 11 Club". To be fair he does have a normal landline on which you can speak to him and ask any questions.

[becareful]

Magic Flute,

Would you be interested in entering your top raters in the tipping competition? Everyone is welcome to join!

Hi Magic flute. You sent me the spread sheet once before and I could not get it to work. I have renewed my spread sheet to Excel 2000. So could you Please send it to Me again. Thanks once again.
ConstantineDblc@aol.com

[Big Louie]

Magic Flute,

In reply to your question:
P.S Is anyone still interested about me posting the ratings every Saturday mornings ???

I am keen to see your ratings on Saturdays, especially if they continue along the lines of your 'new' formula

(I've been playing around with a new formula and tested it on Saturday races and I was amazed at some of the selections it returned.
MR2 - Reactive
MR4 - Karamazou..etc.etc......)

If only I'd put money on all of them...Doesn't matter, the'll be a next time.



I also checked out the Winning Factor about a year ago. Same story as the other replies, same lady in WA (?!!?), I know what the system methods are but can't say here what it is, but I can say it's not my cup of tea.

Thanks & Cheers,
Big Louie

[Magic Flute]

Becareful,

No worries, I'd love to enter the comp. Give us the details and will start having some fun.

Cheers

[becareful]

Magic Flute,

There is info on the Tipping Competition and Tipping Results threads on the horse racing forum or have a look at http://www.tlcbc.com.au/tipping.htm for the rules and current standings. We started on Sunday so you haven't missed much. Basically you just need to email your tips to tipping@tlcbc.com.au for any days you want to participate - you must average at least 5 tips/week but no more than 25 tips in any one week. Good luck!

[luckylast]

Dear Magic Flute,

Any update on how your ratings have peformed over a longer period of time?
I would be interested in you sending me your spreadsheets.

Thaks & Regards

Luckylast

[BettyBoop]

Hi Magic Flute,

Keen to see your ratings posted on Saturday mornings.

Thanks

[Magic Flute]

G'day all

I have just finished my testings and here are the results.

Testing Period:10 months
Strike Rate: 74.36%
POT: 45.67
Profit: $48,510.00

Phew!!! Am I dreaming or what??? Now I can start putting some money (just a tiny bit) and hopefully 9 mths from now I'll have enough to buy a pair of THONGS!!!

Since I've completed the testing, I am now starting a new variation of the previous program (just for a challenge). Therefore please do not ask for spread sheets for the previous program as she is now MY Baby... I will post the New Ratings every Saturday for those interested.

Thank you so much to everyone for your feed back and advice. This forum is very interesting and educative and all the time that I've spent here have been time well spent.

Cheers

[Magic Flute]

Morning all

New Ratings for Saturday 07/9/02 - Flemington (Track Condition: Good)

R1
#4 Flashed - 117
#9 Edgeton - 108 (1st $9.90/$3.00)
#5 Romantic Flyer - 75

R2
#5 Broadband - 121
#2 Ain't Here - 89
#4 Frightening - 88 (DH 3rd $1.10)

R3
#5 Auckland Blues - 129 (4th)
#9 Casino Boy - 122 (2nd $2.60)
#3 Southern Crown - 109 (3rd $2.30)

R4
#16 Karamazou - 140 (2nd $2.10)
#17 Squillani - 125 (1st $8.10/3.20)
#9 Eagle Rythm - 117

R5
#4 Titanic Jack - 137 (3rd $1.50)
#9 Innovation Girl - 135 (1st $2.40/1.30)
#1 Able Choice - 116 (4th)

R6
#2 Northerly - 98 (1st $1.90/1.30)
#14 Elegant Fashion - 97
#11 Don Eduardo - 83

R7
#10 Purple Groove - 96 (1st $8.20/2.50)
#16 Miss La La - 92
#12 Past the Skies - 83

R8
#1 Rubitano - 133 (2nd $1.60)
#10 Savage Attack - 129
#7 Mr. Magoo - 106 (4th)

R9
#7 Court of Jewels - 77 (1st $4.30/1.90)
#9 Gypsy Lad - 75 (2nd $1.90)
#3 Prince Benbara - 56

LADIES & GENTLEMAN I REST MY CASE...

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-09-07 16:02 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-09-07 17:27 ]</font>

[Magic Flute]

G'day all,

It's been a while since the last post, here are my ratings for today.

All races are at M-Valley (Track: Good)
R3 - 8 Yoling
2 Reserve Funds
1 Live Theatre - 1st $7.30/2.20

R5 - 5 Southern Crown - 2nd $1.70
9 Exaggerate
1 Brave Chief

R6 - 10 Curragh Star
1 Let's Went - 2nd $1.50
6 Benmore

R7 - 6 Aussie's Lad
5 Dot Com
7 King Salieri - 2nd $2.10

R8 - 6 Squillani -SCR
13 Dashiki
1 Dandy Kid
7 Marlie - 3rd $1.70

R9 - 8 Row of Arches - 3rd $3.30
7 Our Sugar Street
1 All Black Symphony

The above ratings are from the new formula that I'm working on (still remember ???). Anyway enjoy the day.

GO THE PIES...(my wife made me say that)

Cheers

P.S We all know that the track was down graded twice today. The above ratings were ONLY for a "Good" track. First race started as Good and Slow by the last race. No excuses...as long as you understand that Track Condition is very important.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-09-28 22:29 ]</font>

[newpunter]

Hi Magic Flute
Could you please send me a copy of your spreadsheet

Thanks
ugc@worldlink.com.au

[quote]
My debut on this forum. Please read my Profile. I feel I may be able to genuinely assist you with your fascinating system endeavours. Please email your spreadsheat and I will promptly return my comprehensive constructive comments.

marshall@cityofcairns.com

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sheriff on 2002-10-01 13:11 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sheriff on 2002-10-01 13:12 ]</font>

[Tab Hunter]

It is very generous of you Magic Flute to be sharing your discovery with all on this forum, I hope you do well from it. If your initial results are anything to go by, you will make a killing! Could I also have a look at the spreadsheet? gundini@challengeentertainment.com
Cheers...

[Magic Flute]

Hello people

Ratings for Flemington 5/10/02 - DEAD

Race 1
#1 Dandyish
#2 Sir Pentire - 2nd $1.90
#4 Peace Ruler

Race 2 (Trifecta $94.10)
#2 Hydrometer - 1st $5.10/1.70
#10 Lord Volksraad - 2nd $1.50
#4 Tycoon Ruler - 3rd $2.40

Race 3
#7 Freegold - 1st $10.30/2.80
#11 Rock of the Ages
#6 Southern Crown

Race 4
#12 Karamazou
#9 Lethal Leigh
#13 Berezny - 2nd $3.30

Race 5
#10 Tarcoola Diamond
#3 La Bella Dame
#8 Nul Autre

Race 6
#1 Northerly - 1st $2.80/1.50
#6 Fields Of Omagh - 3rd $2.10
#10 Pentastic /#12 Magical Miss

That's all Folks. Good punting!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-10-05 17:43 ]</font>

[Magic Flute]

G'day folks

Ratings for Caulfield (Track:Good) 12-10-02

Race 2
# 9 - Karamazou
# 3 - Mr Magoo
# 6 - I Rock My World

Race 3
# 1 - Innovation Girl
# 2 - Edgeton
# 7 - Toast Of The Coast

Race 5
# 12 - National Treasure
# 3 - Thong Classic
# 9 - Lester Thunderwing

Race 6
# 1 - Bel Esprit
# 5 - Great Glen
# 8 - Helenus

Race 8
# 17 - Chairman's Choice
# 10 - Society Beau
# 4 - Pernod

Race 9
# 8 - Galapagos Girl
# 14 - Noble Glow
# 18 - American Graffiti

Cheers

[StrikeMeLucky]

Hi Magic Flute
Sounds like a goodie, unlike yourself I havn't come accross a good system as yet, however I have an excellent staking plan, could you email me your spreadsheet and I will run it over a few past months and send you the results. If you like I'll email you the staking plan as well.

My email is patclements@iprimus.com.au

Rgs StrikeMeLucky

[kelvinb]

Magic Flute......I'm a new member here, and I'm intrigued with your contribution. Having wasted hundreds of dollars in the past on useless "systems" and selection methods which turned out to be completely useless - I would love to find out more about your thoughts. I look forward to your reply to kelvinb@austarmetro.com.au

[Magic Flute]

G'day all

Been a while since the last post, you know the usual "I've been busy...". By the way, I've been working on something new and here are the results.

DATE WIN RACES WINS POT
05/10 $329.50 6 3 203%
12/10 -$165.70 6 1 -71%
19/10 $633.20 6 3 297%
26/10 $251.90 5 2 84%
02/11 $499.50 7 4 91%
05/11 $270.20 3 1 103%

Yeah, I know... I need to do more testing. I'll keep you posted.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-11-09 00:02 ]</font>

[guernica]

Hi Magic Flute,
Can you please send me a copy of your spreadsheet to check out..
Many Thanks
dave@wasabi9mm.com

[Magic Flute]

G'day folks

Ratings for today - Flemington (Good) 09/11/02

R3
#10 Terrenera - 3rd $2.70
#15 Part of Jeune
#4 Self Interest

R4
#7 Cool Azz - 1st $12.40/3.50
#1 Chester County
#11 Cape Kennedy

R6
#13 Mr. Lofty
#16 Zvezda
#14 Purple Groove

R7
#7 Yo Yo Ma
#9 Teerex
#5 British Buska

R9
#8 Squillani
#18 Rimmer
#14 Geronimo Run

Cheers & Good Punting.

***** Update *****
1 win from 5 races. Many would say "Not Good Enough Mate!". I say "I'm really happy about the 1 win". Why? Simply because today (although only 1 win) went something like this:
Profit = $645.00
POT = 148%

What do you think?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Magic Flute on 2002-11-09 23:42 ]</font>

[Napalm]

Hi Magic Flute and all. I have just joined this forum and would very much like to receive a copy of your much talked about spreadsheet.

I would appreciate it if you would please send it to:

napalm@tpg.com.au

Good Punting

[ubetido]

hi magic flute

do you have and email i can communicate with you if you like.

regards
ubetido
ubetido@iprimus.com.au

[Bhagwan]

Well done Magic Flute.

Could i also request a copy of the spread sheets.

bhk@bigpond.net.au

[wombat]

new to this.like to have a look at the spreadsheet. digger40@tpg.com.au

[Radish]

Hello Magic Flute

Curiosity has got the better of me and like all the others, I too would like to take a peep at your spreadsheet, method or whatever, if I may please.
jgoldie@terrigal.net.au

Regards

[Magic Flute]

G'day Folks

Thank you very much for all the support, but please please please... "Spread Sheets"... I'm having dreams/nightmare SS chasing me, SS begging me to enter data... no more please...

Thread dated 06/09/02 I asked everyone to not ask for SS. After all, SS contain past results... Is it what you're after, past results. That's easy, I post the selections before the races for everyone to see and check later on etc... SS take a bit of time to generate and include some info that I'm not prepared to share right now, maybe in a couple of months. The previous SS contained only past results. Sorry to disappoint you but it's the way that I've designed the program.

Actually, to make it up to you I am thinking about creating a web site so that everyone can access/download info and ... Spread Sheets... beautiful and colourful Spread Sheets (this one for you Enjay, ahaha). Sweet Stone Baby, Smashing!

Anyway, I'll continue to post the Ratings from the new program for a little bit more. I will advise when the web page is up.

Aurevoir et a bientot.

PS. For those interested in the progress of the previous program, it's doing well...Ehhh don't ask for SS.

[Magic Flute]

Hello people,

Long time no write. I came across some comments (can't remember if it was from this forum) regarding staking plans. Apparently you are not suppose to bet more than 2% of your bank...Why???

Is it possible at all to make a profit from:
Starting bank = $500
Bet = 5% of bank
# of meetings = 11

Looking forward to your answers.

Magic F

PS. I have something interesting to share with you. Hmmmmmm......

[Dowong]

Magic Flute

I'm not a professional, but if you bet more than 2% of your bank then your chances of getting wiped out are much greater. A bad run of outs can really destroy you, it can and does happen. A bad run doesn't have to be 50 losses in a row, it can be a gradual losing run where nothing seem to go right. Photo's going against you costing huge $ . It can destroy you psycologically too and you can't predict what it feels like until it happens to you.

5% of bank seems excessive, but it really depends on your strike rate. Bet a little more conservatively or you may get bitten for trying to get too big too fast.

The best time to bet a large percentage of your bank is when the odds are against you, the maximum boldness strategy. Such as roulette. You have a fixed 2.7% disadantage. Putting 100 $1 bets on even money such as red or black, you are likely to get back something around $97. Could be $87, could be $107, depending on the standard deviation. Best to lay the $100 in one go so you'll get back nothing 51.35% of the time and $200 48.65% of the time. In the end it's all the same, play long enough and you'll end up with nothing.

So what was it that you wanted to share with us Mr Flute?

Regards

Adrian See

[Magic Flute]

Interesting...Roulette to me is a game of chance. Is horse racing chance too??? If it is, we are all kidding ourselves by trying to come up with a system that will provide us with a little profit a race, $1, $10 or $1000. Are we all relying on chance? I don't think so.

Human nature is such that we are negative about so many things. If someone comes up with an idea, it's fantasy...until you experience it yourself then it becomes reality. Right? Stats or mathematical odds mean jack when you have a system that is constantly giving you winners.

I experimented with the "5% of bank" and what I found out was that your profit/loss depends entirely on your ability to find winners. True, if you have a bad run of outs sooner or later you will have no bank. But let me share something with you folks and you can tell me if I'm crazy, lucky or I've found the right(not perfect)system. Or maybe I'm a mixture of all that.

Starting bank of $500, bet 5% of bank @ 11 meetings. The big negatives will say "sooner or later you'll loose your bank". Really??? Well what about 10 winning meetings out of 11. Chance, luck??? $4126.70 profit. Every meeting I've been waiting for the "loss", I was disappointed in that sense.

Now you don't know how many accounts I've got, 1 2 or 7? 7*$4126.70=$28,886.90...Fantasy??? More intriguing is maybe the starting bank was $10,000 which gives you a profit of $26,259.90 for 1 account. Want to multiply that by 7? Minus $20,000 from that "because I'm affecting the odds".

Bottom line is I firmly believe that the 5% bet depends 100% on your ability to pick winners week in week out. Maybe most of you will disagree, which is fair enough. But I'll post again after a lot more meetings and maybe it'll prove me wrong but right now it's not.

People from this forum whom I e-mail regularly know about the "lucky" winnings. Always remember that if you put your heart and mind to it, you will be a winner and the "fantasy" can become "reality".

Ooopppss...I'm expecting to get a lot of flak from this posting...Isn't "debate" and "opinions" so great??? That's why I love this forum.

Till next time

Magic Flute.

[Dowong]

Mr Flute

Seems like you're doing really well.
Whats your secret?

Dowong.

[Magic Flute]

Like someone said before "A little profit a day, keeps the wife away" ahahahah.

No, really it's all hard work and the desire and determination to achieve. And I get a lot of support from a very understanding and loving wife who is constantly helping and encouraging me to do better. I guess that I am extremely lucky in that sense - a very positive soul mate by my side brings positive vibes!

Most of us use past performance as a guide trying to predict the result of a race. But of course as we all know there is no certainty in the sport of kings. But as long as you use the readily available information in a logical fashion and analyse any given situation, you can come on top. At least this is what I try to do. Or maybe I'm just lucky! LOL.

[Equine Investor]

Magic Flute,

You are very lucky - to have the support of your family.
It has a very positive reflection to your results, when you are not alone on your venture.

I have had a lot of negativity in prior years, so I kept the method and got rid of the negativity - now she wants half of the pool!

:lol:

[partypooper]

Equine Investor, ONLY half, youre lucky mate! horse racing is not the only area where hindsight is a great gift! But don't bother looking to the LAW for justice you have less chance than finding another 80-1 winner!!

[Mark]

Luck has very little to do with it. There's an old saying, "the harder I work, the luckier I get". This applies (I believe) very much to racing.

[Equine Investor]

I agree with you wholeheartedly Mark. What I was trying to point out was outside influences can and do also have an effect on your attitude and mental disposition.

If your wife / partner / girfriend / lover or boss's wife is constantly deriding you and criticising you every time you place a bet and it loses, and refuses to acknowledge any winners, and in general is unsupportive, this can make you make wrong decisions with unecessary pressure.

If you're lucky enough to have someone supportive like Magic Flute, this makes a world of difference.

[Rob The Calculator]

Hi Majic Flute

If you are still in the game I would love to look over your spreadsheet, I will provide feedback also based on my 15 years racing knowledge and some 5 year pro-Punting - now retired just punting for leisure - but looking ot get back on a Pro footing again.
My email: rob.neill@nsp,com.au
Thanks in anticipation.

[partypooper]

Equine, when I used the word "LUCK" here I was refering to the ass hole of a legal "system" NOTHING to do with the your horse racing system, grrrrrrr, (the English language)

[bond007]

Hi all,

I can't help but be a cynical old bugger...but I've seen the types of posts and claims made by Magic Flute before.

Starts off all innocent with a bunch of naive sounding questions that are clearly inconsistent with someone that has the knowledge to develop a system that has a 57% strike rate (especially given the rating style adopted) and then gets people to email directly and then on the basis of a few results starts telling people they've got a secret worth sharing.

Sounds a lot like a potential scam to me!

Cheerio - Bondy

[GettingItRight]

If you consider that the consensus public opinion will get it right 30% of the time how likely is it that a system used on a large number of races can select the winner 57% of the time? We have all seen enough of what happens in racing to know the answer.

Either the method is having a freak run or it is a scam. Take your pick. The only guarantee is that the SR will not be maintained.

[Magic Flute]

SCAM ??? What is your definition of "SCAM". This is exactly what I was talking about previously...The negative side of humans. For your information, I've been ripped off by "SCAMS" in the past and it's what pushed me to come up with some sort of method/system call it what you want. You know, some of us are very quick learners. And some of us are smart enough to apply what we learn daily in a positive and constructive manner to achieve certain goals. Unfortunately a lot of other people do not have this ability...That's the way it is, that's life!

To me the word "SCAM" means that I am trying to "collect" potential customers and sell them a dodgy program/system/method by making as if I started from scratch and all of a sudden, BINGO! No mate, no way near. People around me know how many hours I've spent trying and trying...and once again I AM NOT SELLING OR TRYING TO SELL ANY SYSTEM. It works for me, I'm happy with that.

Something that I've learnt about strike rate, just in case you din't know. Strike rate on it's own mean JACK! So even if I obtain a strike rate of 90% it means nothing if my POT is 5%.

Every one is entitled to their own opinions, so do I. All I can say is that there are a lot of good positive people on this forum always willing and ready to help others. Without those wonderful people this forum would be the biggest "NEGATIVE" place and I do not intend to stay around negative vibes...Life is too wonderful, enjoy it!!!

[Big Louie]

You have to remember that the 57% strike rate that Magic Flute spoke about is a PLACE strike rate, not a WIN rate. In that context, the 57% is good but not exceptional.

I personally can't see a scam angle.

Cheers,
Big Louie

[TheDuck]

On 2002-12-10 22:21, Dowong wrote:
I'm not a professional, but if you bet more than 2% of your bank then your chances of getting wiped out are much greater.

Sort of.

The percent you bet actually only contributes to the apparent volatility or deviation in your wagers. So, as Magic Flute points out, the strike rate isn't enough. 57% at evens means steady increase. In this case, 5% is a waste of time. 100% would be better.

But the return isn't consistent so your percentage of bank should be such that a string of outs won't kill you. At 57% you've got about a 1 in 50 that there will be 9 or 10 in a row. Starting with $500 (as suggested above) or $100 or $10,000 doesn't matter since we're dealing with percentages. Anyway, you will have lost about 40% of your bank at 5%. On the other hand you're increasing moderately as well. At 2% you could lose around 10% but you also aren't recovering as quickly either. So, again, the percentage of bank is more a volatility issue that should be scaled to how successful you are.

So what's the magic number or formula. Well, I don't know about you but this is getting boring. But let's take a shot.

Magic Percentage = It Doesn't Matter.

If you like to see your account fly about with wild abandon then dial it up to 10% and watch it go! If you prefer a neighbourhood park swing to an amusement park roller coaster then tune it back to 2% and enjoy.

When all is said and done, it's that profit on turnover. You're either returning more than you're betting or you aren't.

A 33% strike rate at average odds of 2/1 breaks even. A 50% strike rate of average odds of evens (that's amusing) breaks even. A strike rate of a wonderful 70% steadily loses at average odds of 2/5. You may think you're doing pretty well at picking almost 3 out of 4. But those odds on at around 2/5 are killing you.

So, percent of bank is nice in that it is relative to your current position. Level stakes is slow and steady, sure, but doesn't take advantage of the leverage your winnings might give you. And all of this depends on your ability to pick an appropriate number of winners at an appropriate price.

Hello? Is anybody still there? Well, hell, they've all gone to sleep!

-Quack

[Magic Flute]

Yes Duck you're right, it's becoming very very boring. Sharing things with others, is it worth it? I believe that there is a big difference between working on probability and experiencing the real thing, it be good or bad. I was trying something and it worked for me and is still working but made the mistake to share it with others.

I've spoken to several very successful people in different fields and it's amazing that they all summerise it the same way. Something along the lines of "You become successful because you believe in your abilities. The reason why not everyone can make it? The constant it's not possible...bla bla bla"

Last bit of sharing before exiting. Sandown today:
Strike Rate = 66.67%
POT = 191.11%

BUT HEY, WHO CARES!!!

[Mr. Logic]

Someone who knows very little about blackjack can go to a casino and win 20 times in a row. How? By stopping when they get in front. Most visits a player will be in front.
However because that player is at a disadvantage the day/s of reckoning will come where all profits and more are lost.
No matter what one is betting on, unless one is betting a safe statistical amount in relation to funds available or gettable, there will be a wipe out at some stage.
The maths of betting do not go out the window. The winning ride can be fun. But basic statistics still remain valid. They have not and will never be overthrown. Whether you have a 20% or 60% winning strike rate there are proven % chances for losing runs of 1, 2, 10, 20, 30 bets or more. And for losing 10, 20, 100, 200 betting units or more. You name it. There are proven % odds.
The test of any successful method is ultimately over 1000s of bets. That clearly applies to card counting at the casino where the card counter plays many hands. It is no different betting on the horses. A minority of punters will do well with a betting method based on form study or even a system only to find it collapses on them. The reasons could include the betting method/system was itself unsound or alternatively a big losing run, which is to be expected based on the strike rate, has arrived and wipes out available funds due to bet sizing.
But heh. Who am I to apply logic? As they say, winners can laugh and the rest can please themselves.
But a timely reminder to anyone fortunate enough to be making a profit from any form of gambling - don't get overconfident. Overconfidence has been the downfall of many in the past and will be in the future.

[Mark]

How about betting 100% of your bank on the first race & every race ever since (because it is increasing on every race). Can't be done I hear you say....only to the closed mind.

[Equine Investor]

On 2003-01-15 17:11, Magic Flute wrote:
Yes Duck you're right, it's becoming very very boring. Sharing things with others, is it worth it? I believe that there is a big difference between working on probability and experiencing the real thing, it be good or bad. I was trying something and it worked for me and is still working but made the mistake to share it with others.

I've spoken to several very successful people in different fields and it's amazing that they all summerise it the same way. Something along the lines of "You become successful because you believe in your abilities. The reason why not everyone can make it? The constant it's not possible...bla bla bla"

Last bit of sharing before exiting. Sandown today:
Strike Rate = 66.67%
POT = 191.11%

BUT HEY, WHO CARES!!!


Hi Magic Flute -

Do not despair.

I think some of the comments made previously to you come from frustration.
In other words, you were prepared to show people spreadsheets and results, but not your actual ratings etc.
This is understandable, yet some people become cynical and upset with limited sharing.
In many of your posts, you have made reference to factors etc, from which people could deduce what you are driving at.
It is unreasonable to assume that you would divulge your whole forumla and ratings system.
Yet it is unappreciated by many that you were prepared to show what could be done.

Good Luck with it.

[Neil]

Magic Flute, we know punters can only win at racing by using different methods/angles from the herd. Don't despair because sceptics wanted you to divulge 100% of your methods. Good luck.

[Percentum]

Good luck to you Magic Flute if you can maintain the figures you are currently showing. I've tried to apply my moderately successful selection method to country racing on the basis of more turnover = more winnings. For some reason my method is nowhere near as good in country races (and it isn't a method based heavily on class).
In trying to come up with a reason for this the best I can do is think that because of the relatively low level of ability of the horses running at these meetings luck in running plays a bigger part i.e. the horse with little ability racing among its peers is unable to offset a poor run (luckwise) whereas the horse deemed good enough for elite Saturday racing is able to maintain the advantage that its form says it should over its rivals given the same amount of ill luck. A lot of mangled words here but what I'm trying to say is that horse A and B in a city race and C and D in a country race are each ranked 5kg apart (i.e. A is 5kg better than B in the city race, C is ranked 5kg better than D in the country race). Both A and C get equally poor luck in running. A is able to overcome this in relation to B because of its will to win or whatever quality it is that horses consistently running in the elite company possess. C can't overcome its poor run in relation to D because of its lack of that intangible quality.
(Hope I haven't mangled it up more.)
Anyway, that's my little theory about why a successful weekend method doesn't translate (mine doesn't anyway) into a successful Saturday method. Horses are, after all, living things with temperaments and dispositions, not mathematical equations where the bigger number is always better than the smaller.

[Percentum]

Oops!
Second last sentence should have read 'why a
Saturday/city method etc etc to a midweek/bush method.

[TheDuck]

Well if it helps, Magic Flute, I'm all ears. I love success stories. Many congratulations on your success. I'm not offended at all by it! :grin: They say to be successful you must be around other successful people. I think that's a twist on your comment of 'think big and be big'. The crew on this forum are all great and it's great to be around them. Sometimes you have to listen to what they mean, not what they say (me included!).

I'm not knocking your approach or success at all. If anything, I was trying to emphasize that you might be more agressive! Keep up the good work and reports!!

If anyboby still has the spread sheet
for the 57% strike rate could somebody please send it to me .
I am really be interesting on how it works.
gazz1_@hotmail.com
:cool:

[dicko1]

Hi Magic Flute could you snd me the sread sheet for me to have a look at please it would be interesting to look at.
Email dicko1@acay.com.au

Cheers dicko1

[OZDOC]

Hi Flute,
Love to look at your speadsheet.
Regards
Pete ( ozdoc )

peteryoung@iprimus.com.au

[Goldcoaster]

I would also love a copy of you spreadsheets. My email is steve_roach34@hotmail.com

I was just wondering if anybody sent me teh 57% strike rate info because I had heaps of spam sent to me and I deleted everything and most proberly the spreadsheet as well.

Please help me and send again.
If not me, please do it for the children.
(simpsons)
gazz1_@hotmail.com

[angrymob]

i would also like your spreadsheet please
angrymobs99@hotmail.com

[jkerman]

Dear MagicFlute,
I've just joined this forum and been doing some reading.
How has your spreadsheet sytem been going?
If it's been continued, how about a copy for analysis. Thanks.
jkerman@hotpop.com

[novak390]

Please forward a copy of your spreadsheet
I not i'm getting a bad return on mail to
your email address @aol.com
my address is
novak390@yahoo.com

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: novak390 on 2003-06-17 15:19 ]</font>

For anyone interested,if you care to look back through this thread you will find a post from Magic Flute STRONGLY REQUESTING for no more pleas for a copy of his spreadsheet.No doubt all the requests were driving the poor guy crazy!Now I note the requests are pouring in all over again!Is it any wonder the guy has dissappeared?Show a bit of respect and get off his case guys.

[ablett5]

I WOULD BE VERY INTERESTED IN HAVING A LOOK AT YOUR SPREADSHEET. WITH A STRIKE RATE OF 57% A SUITABLE STAKING PLAN SHOULD BE EASY TO FIND
MY EMAIL IS pgartlan@eftel.com