Line Betting On Sports.

[michaelg]

Anyone know much about Line Betting?

Baseball today on Mark Read's website shows Atlanta as outsiders in head-to-head betting at $2.63 versus Arizona who are favourites at $1.562. Yet Line Betting shows Atlanta $1.769 as favourites with a start of 1.5 points and Arizona the outsiders at $2.10 with a deduction of 1.5 points.

From the head-to-head prices it would be expected Arizona should win easily, but with only a 1.5 points deduction they are the outsiders. Having had no experience with Line Betting am I interpreting this correctly???

[Crackone]

The points would have to be home runs so Arizona would have to win by 2 runs If you back Arizona at $2.10 they have to win by 2 runs.

[Sportz]

Yeah, in Baseball, it's runs not points, and this sort of situation is not unusual. Baseball's not a very high scoring sport and quite often games are decided by just one run, so a start of just 1.5 runs CAN turn a team from outsiders to favourites.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Crackone and Sportz.

Based on the quite dramatic difference in prices between head-to-head and line betting, could some sort of sysem be devised?

[breadman]

Micheal Hi again mate.

ok with baseball betting it is really much like any other sport. really comes down to pitchers, weather conditions if you are going to bet on unders and overs. get on this site www.cnnsi.com move curser onto mlb then go down to scores click on scores then if you want the next days games and pitchers click on that date. then if you want to have a look at a game click on the team say its mets versus yankees, i would first write the pitchers names down then click on the mets because they are the home team then click on schedules then all the games the mets have played so far plus what ahead is there right in front of you. first thing i see if they have played each other yet and who pitched that game, then make a decision whether its worthwhile betting or not i guess. I spend anything from 5-6 hours a day looking at baseball then i get weather conditions and injurys, i also have quite a few contacts in america to fill me in on players carrying injurys etc etc. I could go on for hours, I suggest just take your time and maybe just bet with $5 multis or something to get the feel. I cant see any systems working in sport. If you do come across anything well if ok with you can exchange notes. I do have one favourite but it doesnt work 100% all the time but if your careful and picky you can get great results and this worked for me in the nfl ice hockey and basketball in america only. with the baseball when the same two pitchers match up again i like to follow the one who won but only if they have won there past 1 or 2 starts. I also look at unders/overs too and see if they pitched tight or loose. But in doing that I have to always look up the weather site to see what the wind is doing ect ect. Hope this helps you out a bit anyway. If you need to contact me you can at maynardsach@hotmail.com

Good luck and good punting.

P.S. I was a bit rushed doing this post as I am in the middle of form for Tuesday, so sorry if you cant understand bits of it. But again dont hesitate to email me ok mate.

[breadman]

Hey michael,

just noticed this morning that the yankees have changed there pitcher over night form a guy who was something like 4-1 to a guy called small who is 0-1. The mets pitcher is glavine he is at 6-2 and the top pitcher for them. Dont know why this has been done but should make the mets a great bet to win and get the margin of -1 1/2 too.

[Sportz]

Breadman,

I think there is one thing about the Baseball that is interesting regarding the line betting, and perhaps Michael doesn't know this. The home side ALWAYS bats 2nd, which means they always bat last in the 9th innings. In today's game where you tipped the Mets (home team), they were 1 run ahead going into the 9th innings. The Yankees failed to score at the top of the 9th innings and that meant the Mets didn't even have to bat in the last innings. They kept their 1 run lead and won the game, but the Yankees won the line bet. That sort of situation seems to arise a bit where the home team just needs to get one run in front and the game finishes. They don't get a chance to increase the lead and therefore win the line bet. As a result, I would be apprehensive about backing the home team on the line unless I was very confident they would win easily.

[breadman]

Very true what you say sportz and I only pick the home side to win by 1 1/2 when they have the appropiate numbers. When I first looked the yankees had chacon as their pitcher with a record of 4-1 then he was replaced by small with a record of 0-1 with his loss being at boston 3-7. So thats why I posted the mets as a late bet to win and by 1 1/2. How I bet this is I had $100 for mets to win at $1.48 then I had $48 on the line at $2.20. That way with the mets winning by 1 I lose nothing but if they had of won by 2 or more well I have nice win. As you can see I place minimal bets each day and my record so far is very consistant. I try hard to win 5 days a week and am willing to lose the other two but if I have a good week 7 from 7 well thats a bonus. On the other hand you might have the away side going and then the home side come back to win or tie. it works both ways really. Its the same as any form of punting take your time pick your bets out carefully and wager sensibly and yes you can win nice money on sports, which I have done the past 5 years. I just hope there are people out there following these tips im posting and making some money out of them. I had a bit of bad patch in the ice hockey only because getting towards the end of the season is when I normally stop but I learned a very valuable lesson from this, this year. And thats what life is all about I guess. Hope you all are punting well and I wish all who read this the very best of luck. Anyone is more than welcome to email me which my addy is in this thread. thanking you all again this is a great forum and I enjoy reading everything that is posted. Im a bit of a jokester to so please dont take anything to heart. Cheers for now.

Breadman

[breadman]

sorry my email address is in the baseball tips thread sorry

[breadman]

sorry again it is in this thread. im in the middle of doing form again so sorry

[michaelg]

Thanks, Breadman and Sportz. Very, very intersting information. I, and maybe some other members now know a little more about baseball and betting on it. I'll certainly be looking further into it.

I have noticed on Betfair and M Read websites that a name is shown with each team. I presume they are the names of the pitchers?

Breadman, in the website you listed, in todays' Atlanta vs San Diego game, the win-loss record for Atlanta's pitcher is 13-8 against San Diego, and San Diego's pitcher has a win-loss record of 1-2 against Atlanta, yet Atlanta are the outsiders. Am I reading the info on the website correctly?

Michael.

[breadman]

hi michael,

yes thats true. i posted atlanta as a bet but i only look at the this years stats, only because the previous year could be the wrong form as batters and pitchers etc change every year through transfers ect. thats why i dont bet until after a month or so to get a feel of what is happening this year. my figues showed the atlanta pitcher to be having a much year this year so far against a relatively new pitcher. so far so good they lead 2-0 at the moment lets hope they dont do a ?????? oakland and blow it!!!! good luck mate and good punting.

[Mr J]

One thing to be aware of is that runlines usually charge 20 cent vig instead of 10 cent and lower for moneylines (h2h). Moneylines also tend to vary more.