Mr J 2006

[Mr J]

Well I'm only following someone at the moment so I'm probally not even working 30 minutes a day. I spent 2005 playing poker and not sportsbetting, and haven't made any of my own bets since 2004 so I'm a bit out of practice. This thread will simply be me taking shots at getting back into things. This is just monopoly money betting and I don't expect to profit so I'd advise you not to follow em. I do expect to be profitable at some sports but others I'm probally flying blind ;)I will probally be posting a ton of plays, maybe a dozen+ a day. Again, this is just an experiment/practice.

Most bets will come from betfair, pinnacle and mansion. All bets will be risking one unit. I'll keep individual records for each sport and an overall record.

[thefan]

Hey, Same here but ive spent 2006 with poker. havent touched sports betting for sometime..

[Mr J]

Eh I hated poker. But that's what happens when you spend 2 months playing 9-13 tables simultaneously at 5 hrs a day.

A new change. I'm going to have 2 separate records. One with the best price available, and one vs an average/widely available line (a line where you can get equal or better at most books). I predict that I will profit vs best price but lose vs widely available and show the importance of shopping.

I will make 1 post per day of picks to keep it tidy, but I will be posting bets at different times so will need to edit my post and you'll just have to trust that I'm not editing bets ;)

[Mr J]

Format will be [stake / side / price / sportsbook / widely available line]

25/5

NBA

0.5u Miami $3.80 wsex $3.60

[Mr J]

Looks like there is a time limit to editing. If I keep adding bets then the thread will get very messy. If I post them all at once then I'll be posting bets when games may be in play or over so that doesn't work.

I guess I can make a new thread every now and then. Anyway:

AFL

1u Western Bulldogs +20.5 $1.943 pinnacle $1.91

NRL

1u Dragons $2.63 pinnacle $2.57

There will be more bets later tonight/early tomorrow on some mlb teams, but I'm waiting for the market to do it's thing ;)

[Mr J]

MLB

1u Oakland $2.63 pinnacle $2.60
1u Baltimore $2.37 bodog $2.35
1u Tampa Bay $2.80 cascade $2.60

[Mr J]

MLB & NBA 1-3 for -1.13u.

Miami made a strong comeback and nearly paid off, and oakland (mlb) led 7-0 and still managed to lose.

Most bets will be mlb, afl, nrl and I'll look into things like wnba, soccer etc soon.

[Mr J]

NRL/AFL friday 1-1 +0.63u.

Overall YTD so far is 2-4 -0.5u, and -0.58u vs bad lines ;)

Some friday MLB bets to come later but for now here are some nrl/afl bets. I can't be bothered listing the WA lines with the bets but will keep them as part of the overal record. You will notice that the 'best line' record vs 'WA record' will be very different.

NRL

1u Raiders +10 $1.90 at bet365.
1u Warriors +6.5 $1.93 at betfair.
1u Panthers +10.5 $1.91 at pinnacle.

AFL

1u Geelong -18.5 $1.90 at bet365.
1u Hawthorn +22.5 $1.94 at pinnacle.
1u Saints -28.5 $1.92 at pinnacle.
1u Eagles -19.5 $1.94 at pinnacle.

S14

1u Hurricanes +9.5 $1.98 at betfair.

[Mr J]

MLB

1u on Cleveland $2.30 at wsex
0.25u on Kansas City $4.70 at Mansion
1u on Colorado $2.46 at wsex
1u on Baltimore $2.41 at mansion
1u on Seattle $2.18 at mansion
1u on Oakland $2.28 at pinnacle

I'd prefer to wait until near gametime (late morning) to place these but I need sleep.

[Mr J]

YTD 5-11 -4.7u

MLB

Arizona $2.42 at wsex
Milwaukee $2.20 at pinnacle
Cleveland $2.45 at vip
Seattle $2.10 at cascade
Colorado $2.46 at mansion
Baltimore $2.24 at mansion

All 1 unit.

Kansas City $4.60 at wsex
Tampa Bay $3.85 at mansion

Both 1/4 unit.

[Mr J]

Think these are about 8 units down. I don't think there is any point in me recording the results of every MLB away === at a top price (which is all these mlb bets were) since I don't bet these and most likely never will (I follow handicappers in mlb). Away dogs have bee blindly profitable over the last decade if any of you want to check them out. I'm sure if I kept listing them here they'd be profitable at the end of the year. It's basically just shopping for the best price vs a public team.

AFL and NRL are a little different and worthwhile for me to do myself as there isn't really anyone great I can follow. I might get my system back up and running instead of following some betting trends.

Just AFL and NRL for now. I'll keep a record of underdogs in nrl (home and away) as well as home dogs in AFL and AFL home faves favoured between 20 and 40 points. I'll also bring my system up to date and keep a record of that.

From now on the only picks will come from my NRL/AFL spreadsheet.

Edit, unless I'm hitting at least 55% in NRL/AFL then there isn't any point betting them as anything I make would be insignificant to what I make off major US sports. One problem is that large NRL/AFL bets are bet at -111 ($1.90).