French Open 2006

[Tonymess]

Quick intro about myself before I get into the meat of this year’s French Open Draw.


I used to be the tennis service provider at Smartgambler for two years and although I stopped providing the service, I do still have a very strong passion for tennis betting, keeping all my databases up to date on a daily basis.

This year’s French Open does appear on paper to be a two horse race, with Federer playing Nadal in the Final and the young Spaniard looking to be the winner. In the Rome Masters Final there was only one or two points separating these players so it points to a great Final if they can get through 6 best of five set matches to get there.


No value in picking either of those guys, and assuming they do go all the way to the Final, there will be 6 other Quarter Finalists and 2 opponents at the Semi stage so let’s see if we can work the value players out.

Top Quarter


Federer should get there easily playing either Berdych, Volandri, Melzer or Kiefer them being the most likely players from the next chunk – an open section with any of those guys capable on their day.

Ancic vs Galvani in the next section, getting the right to play Acasuso or Robredo. Acasuso was exhausted by the time he reached the Semis of the recent Hamburg event, so his loss to Stepanek shouldn’t be treated as a significant blot on his copybook.

My pricing says it will be Federer vs Robredo in the Quarters – with Federer to go through to the Semis. Acasuso making it to the Quarters though would not shock me.

Second Quarter

Nalbandian plays Grosjean, Pavel or Nieminen – most likely Nieminen (according to my pricing).

Gaudio plays Davydenko.

Quarter Final Nalbandian vs Davydenko with the Argentine the most likely winner.

Third Quarter


Roddick struggling at the moment so Beto Martin or Ollie Rochus here to play Stepanek (Baghdatis is in this section, but clay is really not his thing).

Ferrer to play Verdasco.


Quarter Final to be Stepanek vs Verdasco with Stepanek priced shorter to make it to the Semis – he does have a bad record deep in events though so I wouldn’t be banking on him making it to a Semi.


Final Quarter

<O:p
Almagro to play Gonzalez (Gonzo with Safin 1<SUP>st</SUP> and as we know the Russian can be good on his day – can be awful too).

Hewitt of play Nadal – Hewitt not 100% at the moment and no lead up form to speak of but that section is so shallow he could make it that far on grit alone (maybe Daniel if I had to elect one to beat Hewitt).

Quarter to be Almagro vs Nadal.


Semis to be Federer vs Nalbandian and Stepanek vs Nadal. Yet again the third quarter of the draw being the weakest section – at the last 4 Grand Slams we have had Davydenko here last year, Thomas Johansson at Wimbledon, Robert Ginepri at the US Open and Nalbandian at the Aussie Open make Semis from that chunk of the draw.


In order my pricing is:


Nadal

Federer

Robredo

Nalbandian

Davydenko

Stepanek

Almagro

Acasuso

Verdasco

Ancic

Gonzalez

Gaudio

Happy punting if you are going to have a bet here. I'm leaving the outrights alone - however players outside of Nadal and Federer may present trading opportunities later in the event, for those who like that style.


Cheers


Tony

<O:p

[Chuck]

I think Federer is a special to win the tournament

but the following should make progress:

Ferrer
Mathieu
Chela
Horna
Vicente

soderling value 1st round against nadal

[Tonymess]

Starts on Sunday this year but nothing much on offer.

Federer vs Hartfield so no betting there (1.01 Federer is about the chances of him doing himself an injury)

Acasuso vs Santoro I have it roughly 1.11 vs 9.0 but the majority of that 11% chance for Santoro is due to him being a local.

Zib vs Robredo - no value in Robredo even though I rate him 1.03

Bandy vs Wawrinka - Nalbandian at 1.21 is nice really considering I rate him 1.03

Carlsen vs Henman - Henman probably wins but would you take 1.15 him on the dirt?

Moya vs Marin - Priced about how I rate it and even though Marin has the unenviable record of turning up to 22 Slams and never (YEP NEVER) making it to Round 2 you wouldn't be I wouldn't be taking 1.15 about Moya - In those 22 Slam visits he has failed to qualify six times but has made the draw the other 16 times for 16 losses.

I wouldn't have a bet today

[Mr J]

I'm sure you were the retirement plan of many of us tennis subscribers ;)

[Tonymess]

Not going to post my thoughts on every round one clash here, but think the value plays look to be:

Galvani
Tuksar
Chardy
Verdasco
Monfils
Vicente
Patience
Mathieu

Short ones who should win look to be

Davydenko
Ancic
Neiminen
Vliegen
Lapentti

Think Ferrero and Hrbaty could be pushed in their matches so "in the run" betting maybe the way to go for them (or their opponents).

Cheers

Tony

[Chuck]

"in the run" betting maybe the way to go for them (or their opponents).


;) glad we got that cleared up

[Tonymess]

Just to clear that up - Im happy to price matches however I'm not comfortable telling people how they should gamble.

What I mean is that Ferrero at 1.28 and Hrbaty at 1.39 are seriously underpriced - even though I mark them as favourites. This leaves you with numerous options:

1) Wait until they get to a better price in the run and back them to win
2) Lay them at the current prices on offer and back them later in the run to cover your losses plus some (assuming their opponents do get close)
3) Back their opponents at the prices on offer and lay them back in the run if they happen get on top
4) Combinations on 2 or 3
5) Lay them at the 3-0 sets option and you win if their opponent takes at least a set

Does that make it a little clearer?

[thefan]

Anyone have any info on Malisse and Massu game. I just think $2.50 on Malisse is great value

[Chuck]

Just to clear that up - Im happy to price matches however I'm not comfortable telling people how they should gamble.

What I mean is that Ferrero at 1.28 and Hrbaty at 1.39 are seriously underpriced - even though I mark them as favourites. This leaves you with numerous options:

1) Wait until they get to a better price in the run and back them to win
2) Lay them at the current prices on offer and back them later in the run to cover your losses plus some (assuming their opponents do get close)
3) Back their opponents at the prices on offer and lay them back in the run if they happen get on top
4) Combinations on 2 or 3
5) Lay them at the 3-0 sets option and you win if their opponent takes at least a set

Does that make it a little clearer?

yeah i knew what you meant, i was just being facetious ;)

[breadman]

Anyone have any info on Malisse and Massu game. I just think $2.50 on Malisse is great value

sorry the fan but malisse down 0-4 in the first. the value looking a bit shaky at the mo.

[sportznovice]

Just to clear that up - Im happy to price matches however I'm not comfortable telling people how they should gamble.

What I mean is that Ferrero at 1.28 and Hrbaty at 1.39 are seriously underpriced - even though I mark them as favourites. This leaves you with numerous options:

1) Wait until they get to a better price in the run and back them to win
2) Lay them at the current prices on offer and back them later in the run to cover your losses plus some (assuming their opponents do get close)
3) Back their opponents at the prices on offer and lay them back in the run if they happen get on top
4) Combinations on 2 or 3
5) Lay them at the 3-0 sets option and you win if their opponent takes at least a set

Does that make it a little clearer?

Not into tennis much Tonymess but am enjoying (and learning from) your thread. Thanks! :)

[Tonymess]

Well got the Ferrero deal correct - one set a piece and there was plenty of 2.14 available for the former winner - that being a lot juicier than the original odds on offer. Hope a few of you had a try.

Let's hope we can clean up with a few of the others as well - Vliegen and Tuksar not doing that well at present.

[thefan]

K. Pless 1
F. Volandri 4
market still open in sportsbet

[Tonymess]

Not off to a flying start with only 3 of the 5 "short ones" saluting and one of the two value ones winning.

Today I said I liked -

Chardy (1.68)
Verdasco (1.45)
Monfils (1.40)
Vicente (1.44)
Patience (1.99)
Mathieu (1.25)

I have added the price I rate them for your info.

Others who look value are:

Kindlmann (1.55)
Portas (2.14)

But I'm not that keen on risking serious money on them (for example Kindlmann has not won an ATP match this year).

Also will be taking on Hrbaty at the price on offer but as mentioned earlier I still rate him favourite.

[thefan]

im really bad at tipping so just back opposite wat i back

Baghdatis to win tonight

[Tonymess]

Early look at Wednesday.

Mirnyi over Massu - H2H 2-0 in the Beast from Belraus' favour and only on court for 1 hour and 43 mins compared to Massu's 4 hours and 25 mins. Nice price but not the sort of player you'd borrow money to bet on.

Henman over Tursunov - If this was R1 and Tursunov was looking at yet another loss on clay you'd be getting 1.50 or so Henman. Great value at the 1.70 or so on offer at the moment - watched them at the Aussie Open earlier this year and not a huge amount between them - Henman has made the Semis here before so he's my pick.

Sluiter over Lapentti - both struggling and Sluiter lucky with the retirement of Nieminen - Lapentti took 5 agonising sets to beat an out of touch Moodie. Price the Dutchman is nice.

Ferrero to drop at least a set to Kohlschriebber or the German at the price or an in-play betting go - similar to Round One where I think Ferrero is poor value but still rate him favourite.

Other matches I'm happy to let pass - Federer, Ancic, Davydenko, Grosjean, Nalbandian and Robredo all look winners but I have reasons to leave them.

Cheers

Tony

[sparkus8]

Tony I totally agree with you on Ferrero. After seeing a few of his Masters Series matches recently he is far from the player that won this tournament in 2003.

He still should get by Kohlschreiber, as like Ferrero he does not possess many weapons to hurt an opponent, but like Tony I can definitely see him struggling with this one.

If he progresses here I suggest that you oppose him in the next round against either Korolev or Gaudio as they both have the game to overpower him at the moment.

Anyways, my best bet for tonight is Berdych with the handicap over Volandri. The young Czech seems to be rounding into some of the form he showed last season and if he is anywhere near the top of his game he should easily take care of an out of sorts Volandri.

The pair met last week at the World Team Cup and Berdych disposed of him easily. I know that tournament is considered more of a warm up event than anything else, but from reports I have read Berdych was very impressive there and after seeing a few of Volandri's matches recently I am happy to take the Czech.

Berdych -5.5 games ($2) @ Bet365

Cheers,

Sparks

[thefan]

what alot of ppl missed out on was rd 1 matches when sportsbet market was still open for 1/2 hr after the math had already begun. 2 games were currently in play.

[thefan]

Well jinx of the tipster but my value bet of the day is..

Tim Henman v (Dmitry Tursunov - winner) @ $2.36

[sparkus8]

what alot of ppl missed out on was rd 1 matches when sportsbet market was still open for 1/2 hr after the math had already begun. 2 games were currently in play.

I saw that they still had the Simon v Hernandez match open about 30-40 minutes into the match. Worked out quite well with Hernandez winning ;)

[thefan]

spark u watching for any tonight hehe

[sparkus8]

spark u watching for any tonight hehe

I was, but all these rain delays have put paid to that :(

Will defintely be keeping an eye out for that though over the next couple of weeks.

Another place I have noticed that has stuff ups every now and again with times is Bet365. A few times with Aussie sports they have got the times completely wrong, so if you have a keen eye there is money to be made ;)

Anyways back to the tennis, Berdych does his job for me and covers the handicap easily. Now here's hoping Ferrero doesn't win in straight sets!

Cheers,

Sparks

[thefan]

Well jinx of the tipster but my value bet of the day is..

Tim Henman v (Dmitry Tursunov - winner) @ $2.36


Looking forward to a good finish... The horror stories of betfair members following stupid advices on the forum. They all thought Henman was a bank interest.

[sparkus8]

Ok fellas I am going back for a double dip on Berdych with the handicap.

Tonight he takes on Germany's Nicolas Kiefer, a player he holds a 2-0 head to head advantage over. Both of those wins came on clay. The first being in the Davis Cup last year where he came from behind to win a thrilling five setter 6-7 6-3 2-6 6-4 7-5, while the second came just last week in the World Team Cup at Dusseldorf 6-7 6-3 6-3.

Berdych has been extremely impressive so far in winning through both of his matches comfortably in straight sets. Kiefer on the other hand had a five set battle spread out over two days in his second round clash with little known Frenchman Marc Gicquel which he eventually won 11-9 in the fifth set yesterday.

Personally I can't see Kiefer backing up at all today after his hard slog over the past two days in the heavier than usual conditions and with the form that Berdych is in I can see him taking full advantage of his weakened opponent later tonight.

Berdych -6.5 games ($2.10) @ Bet365

Cheers,

Sparks

[sparkus8]

Well that was a non event!

Kiefer retires after losing the first set 6-1 so the bet is void.

I might have one for later tonight, but I just have to check out a few things first.

Cheers,

Sparks