PLACE BET ON FAVS = WIN

[YoungBuck]

How hard is it to pick 3-4 good things per week, which are odds-on favs,
paying around $1.30 the place? Not too hard.

All-up them.

$1000 becomes $2856.00.

Or does that sound too easy?

Of course how do you know they are good things? With no thought at all
the odds-on fav will place 75% of races. With some thought & common sense it should get up to around 90%.

Any thoughts people?

[DR RON]

Buck, you dont know fulltimepro by anychance do you?

[YoungBuck]

I did notice that one afterwards. No I don't know him, i guess we have
similar views. I'm not offering any service, i just think its a solid way to profit.

[dingoboy]

100 place on a fav, comes in at 1.3,
shove the 100 back in your pocket and play the all up with the 30

[YoungBuck]

Clearly its been discussed before so forget i posted.

[YoungBuck]

Not bad dingo, a safer alternative.

[crash]

Youngbuck,

If you can get a good score picking 2nd.3rd. or 4th fav. for the place you can make a steady earn. Firstly you need to spot what will most likely start as favorite, as that is the horse you don't want your bet to be on. Then decide which of the the others I've mentioned has the best chance of winning and then back it for the place. If you start looking for what you think can place rather than win, it's goodnight Irene. The show is over as you will be amazed at how many 'good place prospects' won't place. Your looking for good win prospects and among those 2nd.3rd. or 4th. favorites are good place prices compared to their win SP. Beyond 4th. fav. the place price generally becomes poor value.

Problem with odds-on favorites or even short prices favorites is that the place price is very volatile and you would not know what it is going to pay until after the jump. 2nd.3rd. or 4th favorite prices are far less volatile and you would be looking to be in the $1.60 to $2.60 place price range or $2 average. Sometimes you will end up on the SP favorite by default, but not very often.

Score 3 out of 5 average with the above method and your making money. Throw in a small win component along with your place bet and 2 out of 5 placed on average with make money [3 out of 5, serious gravy], because some of those will win by default [if they can place, they will also get up and win about 1 out of 5 to 7 races]. Looking for 2 out of 5 for the place with a small win component [I use 1x6 ratio] is easier to do that 3 out of 5 average for the place alone. I've been doing exactly that for the last month or so and it has been working a treat. Looking for 3 to 5yr. old horses in fields of 8 to 14 max. with good jockies and trainers is a good idea worth remembering.

[crash]

If you can succeed with the above method[s], then start thinking exotics perhaps. If a punter can't win money with simple bets, they have no hope of staying in front with any type of exotic bet.

[YoungBuck]

Crash,

Thanks for the advice, I will take it all on board.

[Chrome Prince]

100 place on a fav, comes in at 1.3,
shove the 100 back in your pocket and play the all up with the 30

or......wack a thousand the place on the fave and walk away with $300 extra in your wallet - no further risk - profit locked in.

[Mr. Logic]

100 place on a fav, comes in at 1.3,
shove the 100 back in your pocket and play the all up with the 30

So assume my first bet does not place. I'm down $100. My next bet "comes in at $1.30," so I "shove the 100 back in my pocket and play the all up with the $30." It places at $1.30, so I win $9. Then I bet $39. It places, so I win $11.70. So I have three $1.30 placgetters and a losing bet but I end up nearly $50 down. This doesn't look like the right staking plan for me.

[crash]

or......wack a thousand the place on the fav. and walk away with $300 extra in your wallet - no further risk - profit locked in.

.....If the fav. places, which regularly they do not do and also often pay less than $1.30 the place.

$1000 place bets on favorites would soon cost the guy his house. Sounds like [tongue in cheek?] deliberate poor advice.
If silly enough to play all-ups as well, he'll just lose the house quicker.

[YoungBuck]

Strike rates are so high for these type of bets you can afford to do them.
You can also place bet on Betfair, taking away the volatility of tote prices.
If you don't think you could regularly have successfull all-ups for 3-4 selections, you should be laying them on Betfair, you would clean up.

[crash]

What your saying is winning on the horses is easy and nobody ever thought of your [simple] idea before because we havn't got a brain between us.

Go to it. Let us know when you have made your first million.

[YoungBuck]

I never said punting was easy. You still need to be selective & disciplined. I feel it is a strategy which has merit, and nobody is asking you to do it. When you come up with a better, more complicated strategy which makes you millions, feel free to inform me. What i am saying is if you don't like the theory, go against it and LAY. You can't have it both ways. Does that make
sense, or should I dumb it down a little?

[Beagle]

Dumb it down? I reckon it sounds dumb enough already. You will never get anywhere place betting favourites. One miss and you are up the creek and it's a long way back.

[YoungBuck]

No worries. I wanted to hear peoples thoughts. Got them. Ta.

[crash]

I feel it is a strategy which has merit, and nobody is asking you to do it. When you come up with a better, more complicated strategy which makes you millions, feel free to inform me.
sense, or should I dumb it down a little?

Youngbuck, I did explain a winning method in this thread but it is obviously too dumb for you. Your a real smarty it seems and need no help from anyone here.

[YoungBuck]

Crash - a peace offering.

Sorry if I came across that way. Don't want to use the forum as a slanging
match, and yes you did give me some good ideas with the punting.
I was just throwing up ideas myself. I got plenty to learn & thats why
i am posting things like this.

[crash]

Peace offering accepted Youngbuck.

According to a Betfair profit graph, Layers make no more money than backers and the ones the are winning regularly [of either type], are very experienced and hard working punters. There are no 'angles' [short-cuts to profitability] in horse racing, only hard work and experience. Those who think there are angles or short cuts often spend their whole life looking for exactly that, when [ironically] a few years or so of learning the basics of handicapping, money management, being able to work out a priceline etc. etc. might have seen them on the road to a regular profit from the punt.

[monkeyinjapan]

According to a Betfair profit graph, Layers make no more money than backers and the ones the are winning regularly [of either type], are very experienced and hard working punters. There are no 'angles' [short-cuts to profitability] in horse racing, only hard work and experience. Those who think there are angles or short cuts often spend their whole life looking for exactly that, when [ironically] a few years or so of learning the basics of handicapping, money management, being able to work out a priceline etc. etc. might have seen them on the road to a regular profit from the punt.


Wow, it must have been some graph!


Monkeyinjapan