I finally found my Holy Grail System ....

[wesmip1]

All,

I think I finally found MY holy grail system.

I won't share the rules but I will say it is a mixture of some Neurals and a lot of form data and a lot of mathematics.

The reason I like this system is the high turnover.

I have only tested 2 months of data but if the next few months work, testing it live, I will be very happy.

Here are the stats :

Month 1:
Bets : 329
Winners : 95 (29% SR)
WIN $ : 395.70 (20% POT)

Month 2:
Bets : 340
Winners : 76 (22% SR)
WIN $ : 390.90 (15% POT)

None of the rules used for the system have been adjusted over time. They were determined over a 2 week period and tested for the next 6 weeks ( thus 2 months approx)

Every week (of the 8 tested weeks ) is in profit.

Overall $50 bets on the system over the year could give a nice return.

Just posting this to show those who have given up that they really should keep at it and just try new things....

Good Luck.

[KennyVictor]

Congrats Wesmip, keep us updated.

KV

[Shaun]

Very nice, but that is a hell of a lot of bets......but that volume can be good for results testing....good luck

[crash]

All,

I think I finally found MY holy grail system.

Good Luck.

Welcome to the Grail club. There are many members and we have stumbled onto many 'grails'. Club experience suggests to start your search early for the next one :-)

[michaelg]

Well done and good luck.

Have you looked at betting the selections to Place?

[wesmip1]

michaelg,

It is in profit for the place as well but not by quite as much as the win.

crash,

I tink this one might do me for a while. The shear volume of bets gives me greater confidence in the selections. Most grail systems I have found before usually have a small number of bets and fallover as the year progresses due to the insufficient number of test results available. I will always be looking for more grail systems, thats the whole fun part of horse racing for me.

Good Luck.

[crash]

I'm glad you realized I was just having a bit of a leg-pull and was not being cynical. If you have found something your confident about I wish you all the best.
My only advise would be not to use too much of the profit increasing bet size [early days]. Take the profit for awhile. It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse.

Cheers, Crash

[ubetido]

Hi Wesmip1

Great to see and getting a vibe of confidence.

A few questions if its ok

Sat. only?

more than one bet per race?

how do you distribute your bets?

have you got price parameters?

Cheers
ubetido

[partypooper]

I just like the WOO hOO bit! but I started with that 42 years ago, and after some some really good (and bad) times came EVENTUALLY to a long found patience but who knows I may go out with a WOO HOO, like that bloke recently with I think $200,000 on the winner in CASH!! ****** good on him!

But there again I get a REAL kick out of beating the "book" which I am NOT allowed to do, OR in fact CANNOT do,.... except I am doing it, so there you go!!

[crash]

Must be dutching the bets Ubetido, as going on the figures there are just over 80 bets every week. The only systems I've ever seen that win long term are those with very few bets, not lots of bets, except where it's a multi-million dollar turnover set-up playing tiny percentages. Must be something with a unique angle I guess.


Your right Party, it's more of a whimper [winning on the horses] than a WOO HOO ! I'll reserve that for 1st. devision tatslotto if I ever get lucky with my small weekly ticket. I'll never be betting big enough [or exotic enough] with the bookies for a WOO HOO at this game. Winning capital never seems to make it to a big betting bank but drifts off into general living expenses ....on the good years I do win that is :-))

[darkydog2002]

Ever thought about getting a proffessionally asessed market and betting ALL the overlays.?

Cheers.
darky.

[wesmip1]

ubetido,

In answer to your questions :

It is every day not just Saturday that the bets are placed.

It is only ever 1 bet per race (if a selection come up). If there is more than 1 selection you skip the race.

What do you mean by "how do you distribute your bets?". The figures I posted were at level stakes ($1 bet on the selections) so no progression, percentage, etc staking plans are in use.

By price parameters I assume you mean what is the median price of a winner, largest winner, etc. Yeah I did go through them but don't have them handy at the moment. When I looked through it most of the winners were in the $2 - $10 range. There was the occasional long shot which came in higher than $20.

Crash ,

Not dutch betting at all. Had a look at taking all selections which were thrown and they only just broke even ( about a 3% profit ). So I only ever have 1 horse per race (see above).

It isn't that many bets .. approx 10-12 bets a day.

Good Luck

[wesmip1]

Todays selections thrown were :

Tatura Race 2 -12 2nd $1.30
Tatura Race 4 - 2
Tatura Race 5 - 6
Tatura Race 6 - 4
Tatura Race 7 - 4
Tatura Race 9 - 5
Scone Race 1 - 6,5
Scone Race 3 - 8,1
Scone Race 5 - 1,6
Scone Race 6 - 4
Scone Race 7 - 4,13,3

Sorry but one of the races already ran for a second. Both Tracks are dead and I have noticed the stats on dead tracks are slightly behind good tracks.

The only selections to take are those were only 1 of the selections runs. For instance Scone Race 1 will only have a selection if 6 or 5 is scratched. Of which 6 is scratched so 5 is a selection.

Good Luck.

[baco60]

wesmip1
Tell them nothing; they are trying to get it out of you as much as they can, just to work out what you are on about. They will continue to ask questions in the hope that you might sleep somewhere along the line and give your Holly Grail secret away.
They are nothing but the mob of vultures.

[wesmip1]

Out of the races posted the only qualifiers for a bet were:

Tatura Race 2 -12 2nd $1.30 (A)
Tatura Race 4 - 2 2nd $1.60 (A)
Tatura Race 5 - 6 WIN $3.50/$1.80 (A)
Tatura Race 6 - 4 WIN $3.20/$1.20
Tatura Race 9 - 5 2nd $3.10
Scone Race 1 - 5 LOST (A)
Scone Race 6 - 4 WIN $3.70/$1.60

The ones above with (A) had Apprentice Jockeys. I don't have this in my database as a seperate column at the moment and I am thinking it will a better return if we exclude them.

Just today with (A) produced a return of $10.40 from 7 bets. Without (A) produced a return of $6.90 for 3 bets. That is a huge difference in POT.

Still not a bad at all either way ...

Good Luck.

[Stix]

Wesmip1,

Well done mate on finding a profitable system. Hope it continues for you....

I assuming here that you are using neurals as a basis for your selections (?) - so if your not you will obviously ignore this post - but if you are using Neuarals, just wondering what knowledge basis you have of how the neurals are derived.

I guess the reason I ask is that I have a profitable system based on the neurals, but I don't have any real full understanding/confidence in the way the values are derived (learned), obviously outside of the fact that they are based on the usual factors (Barrier, weight, distance, jockey/Trainer combinations etc) - just wondering if you have som other insight..... anyway all the best with the H.G. (Holy Grail) System :D

[KennyVictor]

They are nothing but the mob of vultures.Good on ya Baco, the guardian of the Holy Grail!!!!!

[crash]

Good going wesmip1.
A lot of bets a day but of course I'm thinking like a handicapper. I only bet 2 or 3 races a day with only 2 bets today. The Spit winning r7 at $5 in Scone and the other unp. at Tatura. I useually have a system going [small bets] as well as handicapping but it looks like I'm settling into a bit of winter laziness.

Good luck and hope the winners keep coming.

[bluetown]

wesmip1 (member.php?u=2302)
Congratulations, sorry a bit late though, just read the post.
Well done and not many post success stories like this in racing. So to some of us it is one of those rare moments to read and good positive news to in these times.

Cheers

[ubetido]

Hi Wesmip1

Thanks for your reply Sorry i was asking "distribute your bets" and price parameter based on the chance you were betting more than one per race.

No problem well done. I sincerely wish you a great and profitable journey.

Baco60
I would say that there are some very good punters here that don't need to weasel out information. It's the passion for the game mate.

As i recall you found your Holy Grail betting 2nd and 3rd tipsters selections. I trust this has been good to you.

Regards
ubetido

[wesmip1]

Stix,

Depends on what you want to knwo about the neurals. I understand how and why they work and why they are and are not useful.

Read up on Neural networks if your interested in understanding them.

Good Luck.

[moeee]

Crashed and burned Wesmip1?

[wesmip1]

moeee,

Still going strong.... Had Gate Opener today at Canberra Race 5. Ran second paying $4.20.

Could only bet At Canberra as I only bet Good or Fast Tracks.

I am still in trial testing stage ( testing live with small bets ). I'll post some stats if I remember when I finish. So far the bank is increasing steadily.

Good Luck.

[Mr J]

Keep us up to date with the results. That kind of return over 670 bets looks like you're on to something quite promising.

What kind of staking strategy do you use (flatbet or vary bet size??)?

[wesmip1]

Mr J,

I use percentage of bank as my staking plan. (1%)

Good Luck

[moeee]

Still firm Wesmip ...or gone Flabby?

[wesmip1]

moeee,

Still firm. Only making about 3% POT this month though which is not great but a profit is a profit.

Last month was a bit better with 14% POT.

[AngryPixie]

Wes

How about an update.

[wesmip1]

Angry pixie,

So far 2 months in the red since July 06

Those were Dec 06 and Jan 07. Since then it has been going well.

Its showing a profit of approx 6% on turnover but it is averaging just around 11 bets a day

I have it automated for me and I don't need to do anything to it at the moment. Profit on starting bank is 173%. ie Starting bank was $1000 and it is showing a balance now of $2730.20.

Bets are only $10 per unit as there are a lot of bets each day.

Thanks for asking about it. It makes a nice side income. Always looking for new systems though especially ones that have a high turnover.

[Truckie]

Great to see someone who has so willingly helped others find the one we are all looking for. Neverteless I agree with Crash in that one should never jump in too early with any increase in stake, ( even if with tongue in cheek) but as we all know, so many systems have a use-by date. Personally whenever I start on an increased level it is time to find another grail. Good luck, Wes.

[Mr J]

What's wrong with 11 bets a day??!?!? Sounds like solid turnover to me, throw in 6% ROI and you have a licence to print money...

[wesmip1]

Mr J,

Nothing wrong with 11 bets a day in fact I prefer higher turnover systems to those that are restrictive for 2 reasons :

1. They revert to the mean ROI quicker so if its a losing system you usually pick it up in your test periods.

2. You can put smaller amounts of money on them and still get a substantial return at the end of the year.

Good Luck

[Mr J]

I'm always on the lookout for new opportunities so feel free to keep us up to date :)

[Ricardo8]

can u divulge how you 'automate' it wesmip....what program perhaps and a general rundown of it. tks.

[wesmip1]

Richardo,

I wrote the program myself so it is not a tool you can download or use.

Good Luck.

[Chiquita]

So wesmip1, still going strong?

[wesmip1]

Chiquita
Still going very strong .... In fact its showing a better pot these last 6 months then it has since I started betting it.

Good Luck

[Shaun]

Would you be willing to share some of the info on the automation side of things.

[wesmip1]

Shaun,

Everything I have done is written in Java. It automatically makes the selections each night after hours of processing ( these are not the same selections as i post elsewhere). It spits out a large number of bets each day. For example today it had 17 possible contenders. It then scans betfair and unitab and a couple of bookmakers for odds and only places the bets when everything lines up.

It sources information from a variety of sources all of which are freely available. Its basically a set and forget program and I have confidence in its ability in making money. This is why I don't share it around.

But I am always looking for new techniques to bet along side it so I am always searching forums and testing systems ... its always a great thrill to find winning techniques.

Good Luck

[Shaun]

I am not so much interested in the selections as i am in the automation of placing bets

[wesmip1]

Shaun,

There are a lot of tools out there that will automate it for you but they usually do it for a specific tab (netbet pro for example) or specific bookmaker.

I wrote my own code that just uses the standard HTTP posts to place the bets. Its not hard if you understand how to code already. But if you don't know how to code then there is probably a steep learning curve.

Oh I use the Betfair API as well.

Good Luck

[burrah]

I am not so much interested in the selections as i am in the automation of placing betsShaun if you can handle Excel Betting Assistant includes an interface to Excel to enable you to analyse prices and place bets using triggers from an Excel spreadsheet.Betting Assistant is free to use for 30 days after which you will need to subscribe if you wish to continue using the software.
Subscription is around $12 per month.<o></o>

[Chrome Prince]

Betting Assistant has just introduced conditional bet placement without the need for excel.
So for example you rate a horse even money, if the price hits $2.20 or more you can have Betting Assistant place the bet for you, if the price is $1.80 or lower it can lay the horse for you.
Brilliant, this is the best software, best development and best support for a very reasonable price.

[Shaun]

If it uses betfair i can't use it as i am in WA

[lomaca]

If it uses betfair i can't use it as i am in WA

Hi Shaun,
Isn't it amazing how these TAB agencies operate?
You can't bet on Betfair in WA, and I just opened an account on TabOnline, the Queensland TAB, but they have such a rigorous requirement for the 100 point banking proof, that I nearly didn't make it. The reason being, that you have to be known to the referee for 12 months or more.
Having just moved about 250K from my old place, where I was known to all, maybe more than I wanted? LOL, I found it hard to get someone to sign the freeking papers.
I had no such problems with Betfair, just go to a Post office and present a few docs. and it's done electronically.
Good luck