TAB no.1

[michaelg]

I had a look at the TAB No.1 horses with yesterday's races. The rules I used were:
1 ) TAB no.1. Must be outright topweight.
2 ) Starting from barrier 1, 2 or 3.
3 ) Must be in the top three outright faves in the pre-post market.
4 ) Not resuming from a spell.
5 ) 8 starters or more.

The selections were:
Randwick R3 no.1. Won - $3.80 and $1.50
Randwick R4 no.1. Placed $1.50
Moonee Valley R1 no.1. Placed $1.90
Moonee Valley R3 no.1. Won $11.00 and $2.50
Cheltenham R1 no.1. Placed $1.60
Cheltenham R4 no.1. Won $4.30 and $1.70
Benalla R7 no.1. Placed $1.10
Grafton 3 no.1. Placed $1.20
Grafton R4 no.1. Won $3.40 and $1.50
Toowoomba R5 no.1. Won $3.60 and $1.50
Belmont R5 no.1. Placed $2.10.

From 11 selections there were 5 winners paying $26.10, and all placed paying $18.10. Eleven selections is a very small sample but at this time it might pay to look further. If there are any selections today I'll list them here.

[Chrome Prince]

Michael,

You might need some extra filters, as it stands longterm 15.86% loss on turnover.

[michaelg]

Hi, Chrome Prince. Those are not very encouraging figures. Are you using the pre-post or starting prices? Yesterday the M.V. race 3 selection was not in the top 3 S.P (QLD TAB) so it would not have been a selection using S.P prices. I also had a look at some form guides for last week - judging from them it seems the Place bet might be the way to go, and there were a few Place divvies paying over $2.00. And there didn't seem to have been much of a difference in distance of race, or condition of track, or even class of race. Hopefully some sort of pattern will emerge so that we can apply filters. We'll see what happens...

Today's selections:
Coonamble R2
Coonamble R5
Coonamble R7
Sun Coat R1
Sun Coast R2
Sun Coast R3
Sun Coast R4
Kalgoorlie R4
Kalgoorlie R5

Out of interest, there would be one selection in Hong Kong - it is Race 5.

[Goodwin]

michaelg,

sounds interesting have you looked at barriers outside of 1,2,3 ????

If the placings stand up you could make good money on backing a place four up, its amazing how much a $20 bet amounts to on four place getters at $1.50 & over,

Cheers Bopper

[feather]

Hi Michaelg,

I had one on the go

1. Must be favourite in newspaper
2. either t-d-c-
3. price $2 - $3.80

Didn't matter for anything else.

May
52r x 25w $76.30
52r x 38pl $55.10

June to 17th
25r x 10w $23.20
25r x 18pl $24.90

Of the resumers - May only
7r x 5w $13.80

Was to busy doing other things and let it go. Thought it may help you.

[partypooper]

Try Tab No 1, LSW, Tab-Form fav, + 100 rater (joints are IN)

[feather]

Should of mentioned that those results are for Non Metro only, Only Metro Tassie did well. 7r x 5w $11.40 (may). Also out were Perth's Non Metro

June ended up with 32r x 12w $29.20

Sticking to Prov Tracks.
24r $41.40 (may)
20r $21.30 (june)

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 9 selections there were 6 placegetters paying $8.60.

Gents, thanks for your suggestions. I've had a look at them with yesterday's races:
The 100 pointers did not fare well even though you have stated other rules, but the pre-post does not show those that will start within your price range and unfortunately I cannot be at my computer prior to the race start.
Two last start winners - they both placed paying $2.40.
Favourites - 6 selections for 5 placegetters paying $7.00.

I'll now identify the last start winners and also those that are pre-post faves.

Four selectins today:
Gunnedah R3 (last start winner - 2nd fave)
Gunnedah R5 (fave)
Taree R7 (fave)
Mildura R4 (fave).

[crash]

The problem for last stat winners during the week is the often low win SR of runners. A horse with a 10 to 20% win SR who won last start has a very poor chance of 2 wins in a row, especially if the runner is over 5yrs. old [a lot of top weight are].

[crash]

[QUOTE=feather]Hi Michaelg,

I had one on the go

1. Must be favourite in newspaper
2. either t-d-c-
3. price $2 - $3.80

Didn't matter for anything else.

QUOTE]

Hi Feather,

Are those rules for top weight [1] only or all favorites?

[michaelg]

Crash, good point about the last start winners. Hopefully, whoever frames the pre-post includes this in the prices.

Australia 2 - Italy 1.

[Chrome Prince]

(joints are IN)

Partypooper, were you at Woodstock?

:D

[partypooper]

Chrome, yup! we were there man!..............but the only joints now are "aching" hee hee!

[feather]

Crash, Michaelg,
I like to keep my “methods” very very simple.

I just scan the newspaper for the favourite, in this case Tab No 1 only, if it has a t-d-c- and the price shown in newspaper is between $2 - $3.80 its a selection. No other rules. Any weight, any distance (even a hurdle is in, and won)

Today by my paper has Taree R7- Frisco’s Vision been favourite at $3.00, so it would be a selection.

[crash]

Oh, I misunderstood feather.
I just chucked in any pp Fav. [WA tab as I only get the Age newspaper] that had a t, d, or c regardless of pp price. It has some possible potential for those looking for more action.

Came up with:
Gunnedah
r3/3 7454 TIARA MISS tdm 7 T GREEN 55 $3.20pp [unp]
r6/4 x224 NINE BELLS db 7 M MCFARLANE 56.5 $4.00pp [$3.50w]
r8/4 43x4 DESKTOP MAGIC cdm 4 G RYAN 58 $3.50pp
Mildura
r6/5 121x APPROACH THE BENCH da 9 B MELHAM 56.5 $2.80pp [2nd]
Taree
r2/4 7322 SKYMIST ca 2 H CHAU 54 $3.00pp [$3.20w]
r3/1 1533 PARIS FLYER tcd 5 M PAGET 56.5 $2.50pp [3rd]
r6/2 1372 ROCK CHICK cd 8 N SEYMOUR 55.5 $3.50pp [unp]

Desktop Magic still to run and a great Jock on-board.

[crash]

No joy from desktop Magic [unp]

[michaelg]

Feather, according to the Telegraph, Taree R3 no.1 (Paris Flyer) was a selection in addition to Frisco's Version which paid $$2.00 and $1.30. Paris Flyer was $2.50 pre-post in the Telegraph and had the letters "t, "c" and also "d".

It ran second paying $1.30.

If there are any selections today I'll list them here, unless you request otherwise, seeing that its your system.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's four selections there were three placegetters paying $4.90. The last start winner paid $1.50, and two from the three fave selections paid $3.40.

Three selections today:
Echuca R2 no.1
Echuca R8 no.1 (Fave and last start winner)
Rocky R4 no.1.

Feather. Two selections:
Muswellbrook R5 no.1
Rocky R6 no.1

[michaelg]

There were no placegetters from yesterday's three selections. From Feather's two selections there was one winner of $3.10 and $1.50, and the second selection placed paying $1.30. A good result.

Two selections today:
Sandown R3 no.1 (fave)
Belmont R4 no.1 (fave)

One selections for Feather:
Strathalbyn R1 no.1

[michaelg]

One placegetter from yesterday's two selections paying $1.50. Feather's selection was unplaced.

Eight selections today:
Townsville R1
Townsville R4
Townsville R7
Townsville R8
Port Augusta R1
Port Augusta R2
Port Augusta R7
Port Augusta R8

Four selections for Feather
Ballarat R6
Townsville R8
Port Augusta R3
Port Augusta R7