quinellas

[plugga1976]

Does anyone take quinellas as there is not much chat about them.Went back through search and didn't find what I was looking for, any advice on this topic would be much appreciated and also how to bet them according to ratings Cheers Plug

[plugga1976]

c'mon

[Fryingpan]

Hi Plugga1976

If you read Roger Dedman's book on practical punting, he shows you mathematically how betting quinellas is one of the best forms of betting you can make value wise, and also with the overlays (the bamboozal factor) available.

I'm not that clever with setting up the right amounts etc with the odds, but I'll make the effort to set up some boxed 4 ($6 for $1 bets or $3 for 50c bets) for Saturday.

Are you into quinellas Plugga1976?

[becareful]

Plugga,
As for all betting you need to find the overlays to make a consistant profit. So in theory you should:
1. Work out the winning chances for each horse that has a "reasonable" chance of winning.
2. Work out the quinella odds for each combination of any two horses you identified in Step 1.
3. Bet on any combinations where the available odds are better than the calculated odds (allowing a reasonable margin for errors and profit!)

As I said this is just my theory - at the moment I am just collected quinella data from the NSW TAB site for each race so that I can test this against a reasonable amount of data.

[Equine Investor]

The problem with quinella's running doubles and the like is that the returns (at least on SUPERTAB) are an unknown quantity. You really don't know what you're going to get - overs or very much unders. I investigated dutch betting on exotics a while back but was beaten by the unknown returns.

Some were extraordinary while others were more than disappointing.
Guess it's a matter of trial and error on races with DECENT exotic pools.

[becareful]

Equine Investor,
NSW TAB gives approximates on Quinellas on their web site and WA TAB (ozbet.com.au) also gives Quinella approximates on Supertab pools BUT the update on WA is a bit behind (eg. pool on Tabcorp site will be showing 10000 but pool on WA tab only showing 7000).

Quinellas are certainly the only exotic bet I would consider placing serious bets on because they are the only one where you can get an idea of the return - other exotics are too uncertain. One Trifecta yesterday payed a few hundred on one TAB and over a thousand on another - the true value was probably about $500 so you either got massive unders or massive overs.

[Fryingpan]

Moonee Valley
R3 1,2,3,7 (10 a danger)
R5 6,9,10,12 yes not Dandy Kid included

Gold Coast
R3 1,2,3,4 $18.60 (unitab)
R6 1,3,7,11
R8 1,4,7,8 $25.00 (unitab)

A long time between drinks but in the end a surplus.

5 sets of quinellas at $6 a pop. Let's see how they run.

Good Luck everyone.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-08-17 17:30 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-08-17 17:32 ]</font>

[plugga1976]

Becareful how do you work out the overlays when you don't know what your return is going to be and also how do you work out how much you think it will pay. Cheers Plug

[becareful]

Plugga,
As per my previous post NSW TAB do show Quinella approximates on their website so I would do any quinella betting with them. I will post the formula for working out what a quinella should pay later today when I have more time.

[becareful]

Here is the formula for working out the probability (and therefore the correct odds) for a quinella combination:

P1*P2/(1-P1) + P2*P1/(1-P2)

Where P1 = probability of horse 1 winning (expressed as decimal) and P2= probability of horse 2 winning.

The first part is the probability of an exacta for horse1-horse2 and the second is the exacta probability for Horse2-Horse1 - add them together and you get the quinella probability for 1-2.

A couple of examples might help here.

Suppose you have two selections for a race, the first one you assess as a 2-1 chance (ie. 33.3% chance of winning) and the second is a 5-1 shot (ie. $6.00 or 16.67% chance of winning). First we convert the odds to decimal winning chance so P1 (probability of horse 1 winning) is 0.33333 and P2 is 0.16667 If we put these figures in our equation we get:

0.3333*0.1667/(1-0.3333) + 0.1667*0.3333/(1-0.1667)
= 0.15
So the chance of this quinella coming up is 15% which gives a TAB price of 1/0.15=$6.67

So you would bet if the quinella approximate was at least $7.00 (or probably $8 or $9 to allow for price changes and a profit margin)

Now if you don't do your own assessments of winning chances you can use the TAB approximates as a guide (there are generally fairly good if you removed the margin). To do this convert the win approximate to a percentage and then remove the margin. For example if we look at MR6 today the final Tabcorp approximates for the winner (Mistegic) was 3.00 and the second runner (Shaye Spice) was 10.60. Converting these to decimal gives us 0.3333 (1/3) and 0.09434 (1/10.6) but these still have the TAB margin included - we need to multiple each value by 0.85 to remove the margin which gives us 0.2833 and 0.0802 (so in theory Mistegic was given a 28% chance of winning and Shaye Spice an 8% chance). Putting these figures into our formula gives:
0.2833*0.0802/(1-0.2833) + 0.0802*0.2833/(1-0.0802)
=0.0564 or a TAB forecast price of $17.72
So that Quinella option should have paid $17.70 on TAB (If the TAB win estimates were an accurate indication of winning chances). The actual Quinella was $17.60 (Tabcorp), $17.10 (NSW) and $18.50 (Unitab). So the Tabcorp div was almost spot on, NSW was slight unders and Unitab was slight overs.

As always I am happy to try to answer any questions or clarify anything if I have confused you!

_________________
"So certain are you. Always with you it cannot be done. Hear you nothing that I say?" - Yoda

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-08-17 19:05 ]</font>

[plugga1976]

Becareful thanks heaps for responding but I don't understand the equation properly as I was shit in maths and never paid attention. I especially don't understand what this means* and another question mate, is there any programs brought out for this as it would be a good idea for someone to do, not only for quinellas but also trifectas exactas and quaddies.

One other problem with doing this procedure would be that the tab odds are always changing and therefore so are the dividends for the quinellas.Can you bet oncourse for fixed quinella dividends as I know you can for doubles and allups. Cheers Plug

[becareful]

Plugga,

* means multiply, / means divide and you do the bits in the brackets first. So if we look at the first example I had:

0.3333*0.1667/(1-0.3333) + 0.1667/0.3333/(1-0.1667)

So we can work out the first half of the equation first. Do the bracketed bit first

(1-0.3333) = 0.6667

So now we have:

0.3333*0.1667/0.6667

Now just key that into your calculator as:

0.3333 MULTIPLY 0.1667 DIVIDE 0.6667

You should get 0.0833 (rounding off the excess decimal places)

Now you can do the same for the second half doing the brackets first (1-0.1667)=0.8333 Put that in the equation and we have 0.1667 MULTIPLY 0.3333 DIVIDE 0.8333 should give 0.0667.

Now add the two parts together:
0.0833 + 0.0667 = 0.15

So there is a 15% chance of the quinella - to get the TAB price just divide 1 by this value - ie. 1 DIVIDE 0.15 = $6.67


I don't know of any programs around that work this out automatically - you could do it in a spreadsheet. If enough people were interested I could setup a spreadsheet where you just enter the odds and it works out Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, First4 approximates, etc. Alternatively I could write a program that would download the odds from NSW site and display approximates for your selected options. If people are interested post a message with the type of info you would like and I can see what can be done.

Finally I don't know about fixed odds quinellas - I have never heard of them but I don't bet at the track so I could be wrong.

[plugga1976]

Becareful thanks mate, if you were willing to write up a program on a spreadsheet for quinellas, trifectas, exactas, first fours and quaddies I would definately purchase this off you and in fact would market it and also sell it for you. Basically the program would provide imformation imforming the punters what the dividend should pay and therefore showing them whether or not they are getting overs or not, it would also give them an idea of what dividend they could expect.

Not sure on whether or not this would sell as you can't find out what dividend you should get and therfore bet on the overlays but who knows in the future tab's might bring something like this in.Anyway if you did go ahead with I would still purchase it as you could do alot of research with it on past results. Cheers Plug

[plugga1976]

One other thing mate, downloading the odds of the internet,this is a great idea as you wouldn't have to type in the odds and the program would instantenously work it out.

[becareful]

Plugga,

Thanks for the response - I will think about it in the next week or two (I am too busy with other work to do anything until September anyway).

At this stage I was thinking of a program that downloads TAB odds from NSW and then can display estimates for Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, First4 on your selections.

Would anyone else be interested in a program like this if it was a reasonable price? Any other suggestions for things you would like included?

[dinodog]

hi becareful

i would be most interested in approximates

regards

dinodog

[Rain Lover]

I know where you guys are coming from as I like quinellas too, but only when I can't split two neddies for a straight out bet. The problem with estimating odds for novelties is not the mathematics. It's the fact that you have different pools and the TAB skim is higher for novelties. Not sure of the exact numbers but it's something like 17 to 18% for Win & Place, 20% or more for Quins and Tris upto 25% plus for Superfectas etc. Maybe someone here has more exact knowledge on this. The point being, if you are struggling to stay afloat on the punt, those few % points can sink you.
(Scuse the pun.)
Cheers

[becareful]

Rainlover,

The TAB take is not quite as high as you think. I only have figures for Supertab but I am pretty sure NSW/Qld are almost the same on the main pools (these figures are from last year but I don't think they have been changed since then):

Win & Place: 14.25%
Quinella: 15%
Exacta: 16.5%
Trifecta: 20%
Next Double: 15%
Daily Double: 17%

So Quinella is only marginally worse than Win/Place but I would stay away from Trifecta's - that extra 5% is an extra disadvantage on top of the fact that you can't get approximates from the TAB.

Sorry don't have the figures for First4/Superfecta on NSW but I am guessing they are at least 20%.

[Bhagwan]

Here`s a way of calculating the overlays which seems to pan out for quinellas.

To get a reasonable approximation of the possible return ,
simple multiply the 2 dividends together, then divide by 2. this will give you an idea of what it should pay , most times it pays a little more than the figure you calculated.
You will see the odd time that it is way short of the calculation.

I have come accross an observation that amazes me , that is, how close the final Quin. Divs. are when using the newspaper
pre- post prices & I dont know why.

So what you can do with this info is calculate your various combinations & set your market price with that formulae ,with each couple , then calculate the possible divs. using the said formulae on the TAB prices.
Have the 2 markets side by side ,then bet the overs.
Sounds good in theory but getting the bet on in time is the hard bit.

There is a program called BetMaster ,which can do all these calculations for you using newspaper prices after you have punched them in , its amazing how close the final figures are.Ph:0411265603 for details.

Quinellas can be frustrating , the problem is the majority in the $15.00 less payouts that kill you , in the end.
BetMaster can stagger the bets , placing more on the short priced combinations & less on the wide price combinations , but even then , its hard to make a profit because at the end of the day you have to have the ability of selecting the end result of not one but 2 horses,
one seems to get one but not the other ,

there are some folk who have a real vibe for Quinellas & are good at it .
It beats me how they do it, because of the low dividends to percentage risk involved.

I hope this helps you in your quest for that "Fleece Of Gold at the end of the Earth"