Blacktype Magic

[Chrome Prince]

Got a new system and here are the rules:

1. Consider only upcoming blacktype races
1a. NO 2yo or 3yo races!
2. Consider only horse's last five starts
3. Consider only wins in those last five starts
4. Assign points only to metro wins (for each win) as outlined in the table below:

G1 - 16
G2 - 8
G3 - 4
LR - 2
Open - 1

Of course, it comes up with the favourite lots of times, but dutch betting the top two or three can sometimes throw out a surprise result in a Listed Race where a horse won a G3 or G2 four or five starts ago. (I think it was Topsy who who uses something similar).

This is a fun system, with limited bets, and a quick rating system which is great fun if you don't have time to do the form for a lot of races and would like some bets on the weekend.

Interestingly, it actually shows a profit, if used right ;)

Depending on prices, I like to back the top two or three and also take Quinellas with the other rated horses

[Chrome Prince]

The obvious criticism will be that a horse that ran three consecutive 2nds in a G1 race will be outranked by a Listed or Open winner.

Correct!

This is on purpose to bring up the better odds.
I have always preferred to back a Group 2 winner than a Group 1 placer :D
For my money, I don't want an overhyped G1 placer who is struggling to win in that company and usually under the odds, I prefer a G2 winner, who might be over the odds and "capable" of winning a G1.....possibly.

[Chrome Prince]

:(

There are no qualifying races on Saturday, as 2yo and 3yo blacktype races are not considered.

[Chrome Prince]

Saturday Blacktype Magic

Eagle Farm Race 7

2 Smart And Mighty - 3 points
10 Grecolo - 2 points

That's it for Saturday, pay to have a little on both eachway depending on prices.

[Mancunian]

Hi Chrome,

I'm a bit of a fan of your ideas and like the sound of this, but can I ask a silly question please ? How do you define Blacktype races - I just thought it meant Group and Listed Races but the three form guides I've looked at for the Ascot Handicap tomorrow just lead me to believe it is an Open Handicap.
To your knowledge is there a comprehensive list of Blacktype races that we could keep in our diaries ?

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Mancunian,

I class blacktype as all Group and Listed races.

I believe tomorrow's race is actually a Listed Race, not an Open.

I don't have a list, I just go by the virtual formguide to select races and pickout qualifiers.

This system does not include 2yo or 3yo blacktype races though

[Mancunian]

Thanks CP - I follow with interest

[Mancunian]

BINGO ! I found a comprehensive listing of all Group and Listed Races.

It is actually last years but very helpful and it confirms the Ascot Handicap is a Listed Race and also shows up VRC Winter Championship today (Flemington Race 6 - which is indicated in todays form guides).
It also lists the Belmont Classic for the equivalent of todays date last year, but can't see that in the form guide.
If anyones interested its in PDF format at www.classicbloodstock.com.au (http://www.classicbloodstock.com.au)

So I'll now have a look at CPs rules for Flem Race 6 - " so much to do and so little time "

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks for the list Mancunian, but r6 Flemington is a 3yo+ Listed, so I don't include those myself, but by all means have a look and a small wager, but this tends to work better on the rock solid races.

[Mancunian]

See what you mean CP, only came up with

#1 / #2 / #3 with 1 point each in a field that doesn't look as good as a Country Cup. Will just watch with interest.

[Chrome Prince]

No joy yesterday Mancunian, but #2 did win in R6 Flemington.

No 3 was scratched, so it only left 1&2.

Anyway, on to next week.....

[Mancunian]

yep - it looks like there are a couple of possibilities midweek - the Grafton Cupand the Ramorne also at Grafton. The list doesn't mention anything about 2 or 3 year olds, would your research have included these races or only Metro ?
cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Only Metro, but if the points are there, have a go ;)

[Mancunian]

Blacktype Race at Grafton tomorrow Wed 12 July.

Ramournie Hcp, Listed Race, Race 7 at 1548 over 1200m.
I've had a look at this and it comes up with No.5 Starlactic with 3 points on top. It also has won at this track and at the distance and also in Good, Dead and Slow conditions (and is also picked by another system I use). Only trouble is, based on all the info I can see, I think it will be short priced.
As I will be on the golf course at 0730 in the morning, I don't think I can wait for pre post pricing info, scratchings, track condition etc.
cheers

[Chrome Prince]

That race has a bit of a history of bolters coming in, keep an eye out for horses low in points.

[Mancunian]

Thanks for the warning, but I'm only into small bets at this stage anyway.

Other contenders with some dodgy qualifications were :
#2 - 1pt (from Qlt Race ?
#3 - 2pts
#10 2pts (both from Open 3YO and upwards)
#11 doubtful 2pts (from Welters)
#14 possible 1 pt (from Welter 3YO and upwards.

CP - Maybe you could help me consolidate my rule list by commenting on whether
QLT./ 3yo & upwards hcap,/ and welters should be included or not.
Regardless, the outcome of this race will add to the history and knowledge base.

[Chrome Prince]

Mancunian, points are only allocated to LR GR3 G2 & G1 with no age or sex restrictions. Qualities are not included either.

so a 3yo+ LR gets no points.

The rules again...

1. Consider only upcoming blacktype races
1a. <font color=red>NO 2yo or 3yo races!</font>
2. Consider only horse's last five starts
3. Consider only wins in those last five starts
4. Assign points <font color=red>only to metro wins</font> (for each win) as outlined in the table below:

G1 - 16
G2 - 8
G3 - 4
LR - 2
Open - 1

I don't assign any points at all to Welters, Flying or Quality races.

Hope this helps, I'll post this weekend's contenders when I have them and see how we go.

[Mancunian]

That race has a bit of a history of bolters coming in, keep an eye out for horses low in points.
Boy was that a statement !
Should've taken a field ticket ($16 out return $43 Vic TAB)
or a field Quin $120 out for $283
or a field Tri for $3360 for $23,822
or in my case even a 100th on Flexibet would have won me abot 200 odd for outlay of 30.
How much history of this race have you got - maybe I should make it my bet of the year for 2007. (There again that will probably ensure the top 3 favs coming in)
cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Mancunian,

Last start the winner was beaten 4.9L in a Listed Race

Look at it's second last start...

3-9 0.6L, R'wick, 10Jn06, 1100m, June Stks, LR, (5), $75000 ($6700), Heavy, J Ford, 4, Cd 55.0, (53.0), 1:06.54, (36.19), 10/1, S 7, 12 -, 8 -, T 8, 1-Vionneto 56.5

Overs in anyone's language at those odds!

Still it wasn't a selection under Blacktype Magic, but does show the theory quite well, beaten nearly 5L last start, so forgotten in the betting, going on second last run had a very good chance.

I don't have a list for the Ramornie, but I can remember at least two horses winning at 50/1 plus and Citichy winning at around 80/1 some years ago.

Traditionally, they go far too fast early at Grafton, trying get position before the turn, setting it up beautifully for swoopers at any old odds.
You want to be looking for horses with some sort of rating that get back in their races and finish hard.

[Chrome Prince]

Mancunian and others following this thread,

There are no qualifying races this weekend, all the blacktype races scheduled are 2yo and 3yo lotteries.

Will wait it out til something decent comes along.

[Mancunian]

thanks CP, saves me the worry.......cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Finally some more action this weekend:

Caulfield Race 5

1 Super Elegant 4 points
7 Illusionist 4 points
8 Due Sasso 4 points
5 Bel Danoro 1 point

Eagle Farm Race 7

1 Consular 2 points
2 Smart And Mighty 2 points
6 Joy Of Flight 1 point

We are looking for horses over the odds.
I'll be backing longer priced horses as well as taking exotics.

Current fixed odds have:

Super Elegant @ 6/1
Illusionist @ 7/1
Due Sasso @ 2.35
Bel Danoro @ 15/2

Consular @ 3.20
Smart And Mighty @ 4.20
Joy Of Flight @ 11/1

In my opinion these are the overs.....

Super Elegant @ 6/1
Illusionist @ 7/1
Joy Of Flight @ 11/1

[Chrome Prince]

sorry, no qualifying races this weekend.

We'll get a lot of action in a few months though.

[Stix]

sorry, no qualifying races this weekend.

We'll get a lot of action in a few months though.
CP

A veritable treasure trove of opportunities one might say(and indeed have) !!

Good Luck...

[Chrome Prince]

We have one race to bet on Saturday:

Caulfield Race 6

Minson 7 points @ $3.40 fixed price
Super Elegant 4 points @ $6.50 fixed price
Roubechon 3 points @ $12.00 fixed price
Thin And Crispy 2 points @ $8.50 fixed price
Chetwynd South 2 points @ $8.00 fixed price

Roubechon, Minson and Super Elegant look to be good bets to me.

Thin And Crispy and Chetwynd South look to be priced well under their chances.

[Chrome Prince]

Well I did get Minson top rated, but then again it went out favourite and the others disappointed.

Still, quite a few more races are needed, because a second or third rated pick is bound to win at big odds in the Spring.

In fact, I'll guarantee it ;)

There hasn't been too much action really, but I've had two clear top rated selections and 50% of them won :D, so I guess it's going along o.k. for now.

[Chrome Prince]

We have three races this weekend:

Flemington R6

Apache Cat 24
El Segundo 14
Valedictum 12
Casual Pass 4
Zipping 3
Chetwynd South 2
Victory Sweep 2
Polar Bear 1
General Conclusion 1
Centire 1

Morphettville R6

Cayambe 8
Royal Ida 2
Umaquest 2
Oahu 1
Change Of Class 1

Morphettville R7

Little Baldy 3
Short Pause 2
Viz Vitae 2
Jillimarg 1

There should be some nice overs in there somewhere ;)

[Chrome Prince]

Flemington R6

Apache Cat 24 3rd $1.80
El Segundo 14 2nd $4.10
Valedictum 12
Casual Pass 4
Zipping 3
Chetwynd South 2
Victory Sweep 2
Polar Bear 1
General Conclusion 1
Centire 1

Morphettville R6

Cayambe 8
Royal Ida 2 Won $9.20 $2.30
Umaquest 2
Oahu 1 3rd $1.70
Change Of Class 1

Morphettville R7

Little Baldy 3
Short Pause 2
Viz Vitae 2 3rd $7.40
Jillimarg 1

Some interesting results and overs, while missing a few winners (improvers) some very handy placings at odds.

Top picks not so good, but second or equal second picks resulted in 5 bets for a win profit of $4.20 and amazing place profit of $8.80

Have to get a decent number of races before making any betting angles though.

[Chrome Prince]

There are no qualifying races this weekend....roll on Spring!

[Chrome Prince]

Saturday 26th August

Morphettville Race 7

Marju Snip 19
Cayambe 8
Shablec 6
Super Elegant 4
Chickaloo 4
Oahu 3
Aztec Smytzer 3
Royal Ida 2
Savage Attack 1
Pepugilliam 1

Moonee Valley Race 6

Perfectly Ready 16
Miss Andretti 6
Bomber Bill 4
What's The Mail 3
Illusionist 3
Sassbee 2
Bexaar 1

[Chrome Prince]

Saturday 26th August

Morphettville Race 7

Marju Snip 19
Shablec 6
Super Elegant 4
Chickaloo 4
Oahu 3
Aztec Smytzer 3
Royal Ida 2
Savage Attack 1
Pepugilliam 1

Moonee Valley Race 6

Perfectly Ready 16
Miss Andretti 6
Bomber Bill 4
What's The Mail 3
Sassbee 2
Bexaar 1

EDITED FOR SCRATCHINGS

[Chrome Prince]

I'm back to this thread after sorting out various rating issues.

I'll give it a shot Saturday in the better Group races and if it goes o.k. I'll reveal my method.

Caulfield R 5

Miss Finland

She has way too much class for these, can't see her getting beaten on class. Probably the bet of the day in the Group races.

Caulfield R 6

Serenade Rose
Art Success
El Segundo

Serenade Rose is also a cut above these has way too much class and is ready to fire third up, she is the main danger to El Segundo who rates third. Art Success is the other danger, don't be put off by a poor first up performance.
I wouldn't be taking anything less than $3.00 about El Segundo, the dangers should both be very good odds.


Caulfield R 7

Super Kid
Undue
Miss Andretti

This is the most open race of the day class wise, any of the three could win, rated quite closely together. Look for value. Miss Andretti can win, but she is very vulnerable and no value at the prepost price.

Caulfield R 8

La Montagna

The only horse in the race with the class to take it out. The only query is fitness.

Rosehill R7

Eremein
Railings
Ice Chariot

Eremein clearly the classiest horse in the race, I expect Ice Chariot to run well at odds.

Rosehill R9

Regal Cheer
Mahtoum


Newton's Rings will either prove himself or be left floundering in the wake of classier horses which are running into peak fitness, whereas Newton may have run too many rings this preparation ;) .

P.S. Sometimes there's better value in the place odds than the short priced winner.

We shall see.

Disclaimer - this is a test, not a proven method ;)

Best Bets: Miss Finland, Serenade Rose, Eremein

[Chrome Prince]

Caulfield R 5

Miss Finland - Won $1.70 $1.20

Caulfield R 6

Serenade Rose - unplaced
Art Success - unplaced
El Segundo - Won $2.80 $1.40

Caulfield R 7

Super Kid - unplaced
Undue - 3rd $5.00
Miss Andretti - 2nd $1.50

Caulfield R 8

La Montagna - unplaced

Rosehill R7

Eremein - 2nd $1.04
Railings - unplaced
Ice Chariot - unplaced

Rosehill R9

Regal Cheer - unplaced
Mahtoum - unplaced


Best Bets: Miss Finland - WON, Serenade Rose - unplaced, Eremein - 2nd

Obviously a lot more weight has to be put on the first up form :(