Off Crash's cuff

[crash]

Mostly looking for some reasonable value with of these tips, but they are not long shots. Most of them will not start favorite and I'll put them up most days. Let's see how we go.

Backing them all at 1x6 ratio e/w.

CANTERBURY Wednesday, July 12 [dead]
r7/3 Flying Orders

EAGLE FARM [good]
r8/5 Our Private Jet

GRAFTON [good]
r4/3 What's The Scoop
r5/9 When Did You Know
r6/7 Kanter Brau
r7/4 Sir Breakfast
r7/7 King Rex
r8/7 Search For Glory

MORPHETTVILLE [good]
r4/2 Lemonade Party
r6/1 Vivonne Bay

SANDOWN - HILLSIDE [dead]
r6/7 Red Ali
r7/4 Schneiden
r8/5 Lacey Underall

Good luck.

[crash]

r8/5 Our Private Jet $5w $2p
r5/9 When Did You Know $4p

What a nasty day for punters. My worst day in months. Bolter's winning all over the place and bookies stacking it away. A Murphy's law start-up to this thread but hang in there, it will come good.

[crash]

GRAFTON [good]
r1/3 Juma Rising
r2/11 Best View
r4/3 Royal Sports
r6/4 Court Adjourned

IPSWICH [good]
r9/8 Moshi Moshi

[crash]

I have been going far to wide into long-shot territory so far, so I'm going to trim in a bit closer to the fav. Moshi Moshi $2.60p was the only score yesterday.

Friday, July 14
BATHURST [dead]
r2/1 Pita Hapa

CANBERRA [fast]
r5/3 Armaday

ROCKHAMPTON [good]
r3/2 Sacred Harmony
r5/1 Bello Gino

[peakester]

Well done Crash.

The only one that missed was $9.00 in the betting.

Cheers!

[crash]

$9 was too wide, your right mate.

Friday, July 14
BATHURST [dead]
r2/1 Pita Hapa $2.50w $1.40p

CANBERRA [fast]
r5/3 Armaday

ROCKHAMPTON [good]
r3/2 Sacred Harmony $3.70w $1.40p
r5/1 Bello Gino $3.50w $1.40p

[crash]

Sat. 15th.

DOOMBEN [good]
r5/1 Classic Karla
r7/2 Shysu
r8/1 Birthday Bash

MOONEE VALLEY [slow 6]
r5/2 Presenting
r6/3 Johnny Knoxville
r8/3 Clavillo

MORPHETTVILLE [good]
r3/3 Mt Billy
r5/7 Londo
r6/3 Dollydeva
r7/3 Cyclone At Sea
r8/3 Old Songs

RANDWICK [slow 7]
r3/1 He's Canny
r8/4 Lookout
----------------------------------------------------------
Sat. 15th. Non-metro

GOLD COAST [good]
r6/4 Ears To Victory

HORSHAM [good]
r5/5 Mighty Mio

TOOWOOMBA [good]
r3/2 Halluce's Devotion
r6/7 Major Boyington
------------------------------------------------------

[crash]

I hope punters who backed any of these followed my original advise to back my selections 1x6 ratio bet ew. The rain stuffed me up a bit as I wasn't handicapping for some of these conditions, and don't bother handicapping for heavy tracks anyway. I didn't back the last at Moonee Valley or Randwick but put them in the results anyway..


Horsham and Toowoomba both abandoned.

DOOMBEN [good]
r5/1 Classic Karla $2.30p
r7/2 Shysu
r8/1 Birthday Bash $2p

MOONEE VALLEY [slow 6] went to heavy
r5/2 Presenting
r6/3 Johnny Knoxville $1.70p
r8/3 Clavillo

MORPHETTVILLE [good] to dead late.
r3/3 Mt Billy $3.50w $1.80p
r5/7 Londo
r6/3 Dollydeva $2p
r7/3 Cyclone At Sea $9.50w $3p
r8/3 Old Songs [scratched]

RANDWICK [slow 7] went to heavy.
r3/1 He's Canny
r8/4 Lookout $1.50p
----------------------------------------------------------
Sat. 15th. Non-metro

GOLD COAST [good]
r6/4 Ears To Victory

I was going to mention Purser's tip at Doomben [R6 Western Brace $18.30w $5.30p] when I put this lot up, but thought it wasn't my tip and it wouldn't look right putting it here. Bragging rights belong to Phil, not me. Anyway, I hope a few other punters backed it besides this one as it really made my day and hopefully a few others here too. Cyclone At Sea was a good collect that saved the day for the win bet here and the place made a profit.
cheers.

[partypooper]

Well Done Crash! it's a constant battle isn't it to stay in front, equalled my biggest bet of 2006 today on James The Jet, and still managed to win just $37 on the day, an unbelievable low maxi-Divi, combined with an equal bet on Over Lock, and several lesser losers, but guess I should be glad of small mercy's

[crash]

Taree
r2/4 Joe's Memory
r6/1 Champion's League

[crash]

r2/4 Joe's Memory $2.20p
r6/1 Champion's League $1.90p

No winner but a nice overall profit at 1x6 ew.

[crash]

wed. 19th.

Gawler [good 3]
r4/1 It Ain't Easy

Ipswich [good]
r7/7 Monaseeci

Sandown Lakeside [slow 7]
r4/3 Extreme Makeover
r7/6 Violet Ponds
r8/2 Whittier Miss

[crash]

Monaseeci $4.90w $2p was the only good news yesterday.

ROCKHAMPTON Thurs. 20th.
r3/2 Gloriosa Honey
r7/5 Our Young Emperor

[crash]

Only a pineapple yesterday. Lets see how these go.

TOWNSVILLE Friday, July 21
r2/3 Pyramid Raider
r5/4 Barron Hunter
r6/1 Scutt

[crash]

A $2.20 p yesterday.


Saturday, July 22
Cheltenham [good3]
r2/3 Chilli Stoush
r6/7 Toast To Lenny
r8/6 Sweet Julia

Caulfield [dead 4]
r2/1 Kingston Bird
r3/2 Future Analysis
r6/1 General Conclusion
r7/2 Canary Islands
r8/1 Evil Master

Eagle Farm [good]
r4/9 Our Private Jet
r5/10 Lady Of Courage [ew longshot]
r6/1 The Jackal
r7/5 Bohemian Dancer [ew longshot]
r8/1 Step Right In

Good luck.

[Sportz]

Are you going to put your tips in for the new punting comp?

[crash]

A good day. I hope few got on-board.

Saturday, July 22

Chilli Stoush $1.60p
Sweet Julia $11.90w $3.50p
Evil Master $2.10p
Canary Islands $2.80p
Our Private Jet $4.70w $2.10p
The Jackal $1.90p
Step Right In $8.90w $3.40p

[crash]

Sunday 23rd.

Hawksbury [dead5]
r8/1 Fuji Lad

Scone [good3]
r3/9 Nordic Princess
r5/1 Spock
r8/7 Lyn's Money

Casterton [good3]
r6/8 Foxes Folly

[crash]

Sun. result:
Nordic Princess $4.20w $1.50p
Foxes Folly $1.60p

Monday, July 24th.
DUBBO [transfered from Dubbo to Wellington. Dead 5]
r6/6 Bold Fiona
r9/4 Worondi

MILDURA [slow 6]
r4/2 Glogettum
r5/3 Georgie Rae
r6/2 All Pressure
r7/2 Tactical Jack

[crash]

From The start of the thread on the 12th. July to Saturday 22nd. Figures for Running total win and place for 58 bets are:

RTW: w/outlay 58 w/return 68.7 w/profit +10.7 [18.4%POT]

RTP: p/outlay 348 p/return 384.6 p/profit +36.6 [10.5%POT]

Obviously we would have been better off ignoring the 1x6 ew betting ratio I originally suggested and betting straight win bets. If all the above bets were bet 7 units the win instead of 1x6 ew the result would have been:

ALL TOTAL WIN ONLY [7 units win only] w/ol 406 w/r 480.9 [68.7 x 7] w/pr 74.9 total profit, instead of 47.3 total profit betting 1x6 ew ratio. A big difference!

The problem for the place bet here is the place price value for most runners that are above short prices and that is most of my bets. For those targeting favourites the place value would be worthwhile, as it is often 50% and sometimes more than their win price. Favourites make up a very small percentage of my target bets, so I'm dumping the 1x6 ew strategy here and recommending straight win bets.

Cheers.

[Stix]

From The start of the thread on the 12th. July to Saturday 22nd. Figures for Running total win and place for 58 bets are:

RTW: w/outlay 58 w/return 68.7 w/profit +10.7 [18.4%POT]

RTP: p/outlay 348 p/return 384.6 p/profit +36.6 [10.5%POT]

Obviously we would have been better off ignoring the 1x6 ew betting ratio I originally suggested and betting straight win bets. If all the above bets were bet 7 units the win instead of 1x6 ew the result would have been:

ALL TOTAL WIN ONLY [7 units win only] w/ol 406 w/r 480.9 [68.7 x 7] w/pr 74.9 total profit, instead of 47.3 total profit betting 1x6 ew ratio. A big difference!

The problem for the place bet here is the place price value for most runners that are above short prices and that is most of my bets. For those targeting favourites the place value would be worthwhile, as it is often 50% and sometimes more than their win price. Favourites make up a very small percentage of my target bets, so I'm dumping the 1x6 ew strategy here and recommending straight win bets.

Cheers.
Still some good POT's there crash..... My Pop always said " You can't eat odds!" and "You never go hungry backing winners".........

[crash]

Wellington has already gone to heavy and I just checked 'weatherzone' and it's rain all day there, so ignore the 2 Wellington bets for today. I just don't bother with heavy tracks getting heavier!


Hi Stix,
As usual Granddads are never far off the mark, but place betting on all but shorties or the odd long-shot as a saver, is a dead duck. If a punter can cope with the inevitable outs, in the long run betting for the win is the way to go.

[crash]

Naturally, as soon as I advised to dump the place segment for tips here Murphy's law kicked in and any punter who kept to the 1x6 ew formula cleaned up today.

r4/2 Glogettum $3.80w $1.60p
r6/2 All Pressure $3.20p
r7/2 Tactical Jack $1.60p

[crash]

Rockhampton [good] Tues. 25th.

r4/1 Magic Soiree
r5/6 St Spartica
r8/3 Sacred Harmony

[crash]

Rockhampton
r4/1 Magic Soiree $3.20w $1.30p
r5/6 St Spartica $7.20w $2.20p

[maverick1993]

well done Crash ..very consistant tipping of late...i liked St Spartica aswell but was to scared of Bellogino ,,i couldnt split them and they dead heated..
wierd..

just out of curiosity how would you be going if you were going straight out 7 units for the win ??

[crash]

Hi Mav,

You missed the top of this page as I am going win only now because ...well the reasons are above and on the previous page. Up to last Saturday [copy and paste from above]:
ALL TOTAL WIN ONLY [7 units win only] w/ol 406 w/r 480.9 [68.7 x 7] w/pr 74.9 total profit, instead of 47.3 total profit betting 1x6 ew ratio. A big difference!

I'm now back to betting straight win after the 1x6 experiment. What I would say in it's favour and from my records is that if SP is below $4, the 1x6 ew ratio is generally a good betting system [shorties]. Above $4 and the place odds mostly suck! So $2 to $3.80 and 1x6ew is good, above that just forget it as too many place punters target this area and kill the odds. The greater the SP above $4 the worse it gets.

[maverick1993]

I still think e/w's are still an option Crash.....
Pheonix Express and Kantoshi Millions were examples for me last Saturday...Both rated high but in a crowded leader board..where as StepRightIn was at e/w odds but was a clear top rater so was backed for the win..
I think it all depends on how your ratings pan out....as a rule if my e/w comes up short i'd leave it alone...

Your strikerate is fantastic.....do you take trifectas ect ?? i wonder if you took all your selections as banker then the field for 2nd and 3rd how you'd be doing....

[crash]

I must admit mav. when it comes to exotics I am very much a novice. I learnt to punt from my grandfather and he was a win only man.

I understand basic exotics but not banker tri's. That's 1 x field x field isn't it?
Wouldn't that cost an arm and a leg? How do you work out the cost for the field size? And what is this 'roving' banker I've heard of? How does that work and cost? I have seen some very good tri. pay-outs on some of my winner's
races, but never really looked into it as a gamble option.

[crash]

Wednesday 26th.

Sandown hillside [slow 6]
r2/5 Reichman
r5/5 Itsechuca
r7/6 Chouette
r8/6 Sharipova

Balaklava [good3]
r5/7 Dekoda Gold
r6/2 Miss Moneybox

Eagle Farm [dead]
r7/4 My Best Tycoon
r8/2 Muscle Up

[Sportz]

I understand basic exotics but not banker tri's. That's 1 x field x field isn't it?
Wouldn't that cost an arm and a leg? How do you work out the cost for the field size? And what is this 'roving' banker I've heard of? How does that work and cost?

The cost of a banker trifecta is: (the number of other selections) x (the number of other selections minus one)

So, if there is a field of 12, and you take one horse to win from the field, then you simply multiply 11 by 10. That equals $110 for a dollar unit.

A "roving" banker trifecta means that your selection only has to place, not win. The cost is 3 times as much as a regular banker trifecta.

[crash]

Thanks for that Sportz.

I've never been a big fan of exotics because of the TAB % takeout, so I don't know more than the basics. Interesting to know how to work out the costs though.

The tri would have to pay very well indeed, because I see that as $100 win bet for the banker tri. to beat, or a $300 place bet [?] or $150 ew bet for the rover tri. to beat :-))

[Sportz]

Well, like you, I also find it difficult to justify the expense. I always thought it was a bit strange to have one horse to win and the whole field for 2nd and 3rd. BUT when you see some of the ridiculously high dividends that Mav has won, it's incredible.

[Stix]

Well, like you, I also find it difficult to justify the expense. I always thought it was a bit strange to have one horse to win and the whole field for 2nd and 3rd. BUT when you see some of the ridiculously high dividends that Mav has won, it's incredible.Or for an experiement - NSW flexi-betting is available - smaller outlay = smaller risk...... snag a couple of Mav sized divvy's and away you go..... maybe... http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/redface.gif

[Sportz]

I don't have a NSW Tab account. I was hoping that there was going to be some change eventually, so that you could do that on Unitab as well.

[crash]

Me too Sportz with stab.

[maverick1993]

I've never used the roving banker trifecta,,just to costly....

What works for me Crash is of course the banker trifecta,,but have a level stake..
say 150 ... in a race with 12 staters..
banker tri costs 110
so with the other 40 i'll have my banker with say my next 2 raters..
this 20x for 40...
depending on the banker selection..if you've selected a good price winner as your banker then you might go even wider ,,say 3 or even 4 selections for 2nd and 3rd....

you could even just go 1/2 for the banker field tri which would only cost you 55 (for 12 runners)and have a level stake of 100 .

when theres a large field then Stix is right..Nswtab is great for this as you can just take a percentage...i also like the Nswtab as they always underestimate our Qld horses down there...(starcraft started at 50.s ,, i/2 that on unitab) Dont tell clang and a few others were the same....

Interesting if you looked back on even just this thread and see how you'd have done ....,,,especially if you've rated the winning races 1,2,3 ..

[crash]

Thanks for that info. mav. I am indeed going to look back over my results to see what I have missed. I know there were some good tri's with some of my winners. Going to look into the tri. business generally, as someone is collecting and having fun [it appears you get a few goodies too] !!

Bombed out with a run of outs yesterday. Overdue I think. Only a couple today as very little time available for form study.

Thursday, July 27

TOWNSVILLE
r6/6 Annacristi
r8/8 Emmbowen

[crash]

Can I do 3 days without a winner ? :-))

Need some money for tomorrow, so a bit more effort here:

28 July

Ballarat [dead]
r1/1 Illustration
r8/7 Glebe Run
r9/5 Ballyrogan

Muswellbrook [dead]
r6/10 Folly Lane
r8/4 Sutton Rarju and 11 Danzego [backmarker from barrier 11 at odds]

[crash]

28 July

Ballarat
r1/1 Illustration $1.10w $1.20p !!!
r8/7 Glebe Run $2.20w $1.50p
r9/5 Ballyrogan $6.80w $2.10p

Muswellbrook
r6/10 Folly Lane
r8/4 Sutton Rarju $5w $1.80p
r8/11 Danzego [scr.]

[Sportz]

Good going today, crash! :)

How did you pick Illustration? That was a bold selection. :D

[crash]

Well I just had to break that 2 days of 'outs' Sportz ...anyway I could !!

[maverick1993]

well done Crash...a couple of nice trifecta divies there aswell ;)

[crash]

Hi Mav,

After your previous suggestions I'd like to say I had those winners as banker tri's, but I didn't. There is certainly scope there though. Thanks.

[crash]

Here are a few at Doomben for a heavy or slow track that all have excellent wet track breeding even though some have not raced on the wet yet or maybe only once or twice. They are horses I think can potentially win, meaning a barrier and jock within their running style and other details suit ok.

Running styles are [L] leader [P] on-pacer [M] mid-pacer [B] back-marker and the * are my personal choices. Some very good odds on some of these so for exotics fans they are worth throwing in.

Doomben [slow/heavy] Saturday 29th.

r1/3 Poppy Power (3) 53.54yo b g (B J McLachlan at Sunshine Coast) S Seamer [P] **

r2/12 Radar O'Reilly (NZ) (6) 53.06yo b/br g (G A Ryan at Gold Coast) Matthew Palmer (a 2.0) [B]**
10 Pay Me (16) 53.04yo b g (S L Watters at Caloundra) C Spry [B]*

r4/5 Bold Reason (7) 53.03yo b c (K T Webb at Toowoomba) J L Taylor [P] distance :- ( ???
9 Attackengo (5) 53.03yo br g (P J Facoory at Toowoomba) C Spry [L]*
16 Indomato (8) 53.03yo b g (T N Miller at Sunshine Coast) M Cahill [M]**

r5/2 Mersey Beat (2) 57.04yo b g (A E Bailey at Gold Coast) G Colless [L]**
12 Prang (10) 53.05yo br m (N R Dawson at Eagle Farm) M Cahill [M]
18 Vitruvius (1) 53.05yo b g (Gregory Cornish at Beaudesert) Ms S Drake (a 3.0) [M]*

r6/10 Gloucester Road (10) 53.06yo br g (Ms D Newham at Gold Coast) Matthew Palmer (a 2.0) [M]*
14 Fleeting Echo (2) 53.04yo b g (Ms G Roberts at Toowoomba) P Wolfgram [L]

Good luck whatever your betting on.

[crash]

r2/12 Radar O'Reilly is scr., so I'd put in Down to Earth and back it and Pay Me. Both to win.

r6/10 Gloucester Road is scr., so I'd back Fleeting Echo ew.

The rest I'll back to win as the odds are there. Any more than 1 winner [besides Poppy Power or Mersey Beat] should be 'gravy'.

[crash]

Doomben

Into the gravy boat !!

r1/3 Poppy Power $3.40w $1.40p
r4/5 Bold Reason $28.60w $6.90p

[Stix]

Doomben

Into the gravy boat !!

r1/3 Poppy Power $3.40w $1.40p
r4/5 Bold Reason $28.60w $6.90pYep your right Crash - as you've said before - pick enough of them in the one race and you'd hope you'd get one......

So on that form, I wouldn't have thought that you'd ACTUALLY backed them...

[crash]

r2/12 Radar O'Reilly is scr., so I'd put in Down to Earth and back it and Pay Me. Both to win.

r6/10 Gloucester Road is scr., so I'd back Fleeting Echo ew.

The rest I'll back to win as the odds are there. Any more than 1 winner [besides Poppy Power or Mersey Beat] should be 'gravy'.

Gotta have a bit of fun Stix, so I just did what I said and advised others. If you would like me to bull shat, I could tell you I bagged the tri on the side as well. I've got nothing to prove to you pal. My runs are on the board and are well in profit. I don't see yours anywhere.

The sad part is, you have ended this thread that I put up Stix.

[Stix]

"I've got nothing to prove to you pal. My runs are on the board and are well in profit. I don't see yours anywhere"

"The sad part is, you have ended this thread that I put up Stix"

You have issues!

Geez, you can dish it , but can't cop a dig.... wow, that says alot.

[maverick1993]

Great get with Bold Reason Crash...i thought wouldn't be racing today in the slow but you had him picked last night..
Then again i dont know much about the Singspeils...
But his last couple of runs have been good with just no luck at all,,

[partypooper]

C'mon STIX, that's just the Australian character per se', found that out with a few broken noses way back in the 60,s, just learnt to accept it!
All things considered I think Crash does put up the business BEFORE the races, so credit where it's due!

[crash]

Stix must have done his rent money again and needed to take it out on someone who didn't.

Anyway, I get to kick his butt in the comp. next week so he better buy some new darts.

[crash]

This thread to end of July.
RTW w/outlay 93 w/return 119.1 w/profit 26.1 [ 21.9% POT]

---------------------------------

[Stix]

C'mon STIX, that's just the Australian character per se', found that out with a few broken noses way back in the 60,s, just learnt to accept it!
All things considered I think Crash does put up the business BEFORE the races, so credit where it's due!PP
"Before" the races..... hmmm not sure what you're getting at there.

Never said it wasn't a good get, just sceptical that - against (numerous) previously expressed reservations of betting more than one horse per race - crash backed Bold Reason AND Attackengo AND Indomato all in the same race......


Stix must have done his rent money again and needed to take it out on someone who didn't.

Anyway, I get to kick his butt in the comp. next week so he better buy some new darts Crash

Didn't "do" the "rent money", as it's hard to do when you own (at 32 yo) the place you live in..... your right I didn't win yesterday..... but as for taking it out on someone, that's not me....

I just saw your post and I thought that is rather hypocritical (the trait I dislike the most!).....and on top of that I just can't believe how poorly you handled someone expressing a (doubting) point of view - as you continuously provide to other posters threads (re: CP's gelding theory......)

....Anyway, My "darts" are sharpened for this week....... "We is gunna get it on cos we don't get along........."

[crash]

Stix, you are frothing at the mouth.

My bets are all upfront before they race Stix and yes I do believe one bet per race is the way to go and have recently said so in a post elsewhere ......as you so gleefully have noted. I also said, '....unless backing longshots' [you left that bit out sunshine].

I'll be keeping my bets to myself from now on. I need this dribble like a hole in the head.




.

[Stix]

Stix, you are frothing at the mouth.

My bets are all upfront before they race Stix and yes I do believe one bet per race is the way to go and have recently said so in a post elsewhere ......as you so gleefully have noted. I also said, '....unless backing longshots' [you left that bit out sunshine].

I'll be keeping my bets to myself from now on. I need this dribble like a hole in the head.




.That IS very mature of you, crash.......