When the Fav is the Toppy

[xptdriver]

Gday All

I guess this is the right place to post this.. I have noticed something that may or may not stand up but I will share with you guys/gals just the same.

I have been betting the fav on good and dead tracks using my ratings, provided the fav is in the top 3.. It has proved to be ok.. But I noticed when the toppy is in the top 3 AND fav it improves markedly.. that is all the rules..

Anyway for today (watch em fall over) remember they have to be FAV I use Unitab to determine this

20/07/2006 12:12 GEELONG 1 1 ALL THE GLORY
20/07/2006 12:47 GEELONG 2 1 ON THE KNOCKER
20/07/2006 4:02 NORTHAM 7 1 EXSTRA
20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY
20/07/2006 2:07 ROCKHAMPTON 3 1 RIN TIN
20/07/2006 2:45 ROCKHAMPTON 4 1 CARD PLAYER
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED


good Luck with em.. win betting seems to be the way to go.. but Crash's
(I think) 1x6 might work

[crash]

Hi xpt,

Don't see you in this section often. Of course it's the kiss of death here for most [once great] systems. It seems to kill them dead !

Anyway, the 1x6 ew ratio isn't a bad move. The old number 1 is pretty good at running at least a place, especially when favourite.

[xptdriver]

Hi xpt,

Don't see you in this section often. Of course it's the kiss of death here for most [once great] systems. It seems to kill them dead !

Anyway, the 1x6 ew ratio isn't a bad move. The old number 1 is pretty good at running at least a place, especially when favourite.


Gday Crash...

yeah I thought it might be worth chucking in the ring.. In handicaps half the work is done for ya by the handicapper so why not use his skills... specially if it coincides with your own ideas ...

Keep backin plenty of winners :)

[Chinbok]

Hi Xpt,

I noticed you had prices up for a couple of races last Sat. I tried to replicate them from your ratings. It looks as if you lengthen the price for the top rater and shorten the rest. Is that right?

[xptdriver]

Hi Xpt,

I noticed you had prices up for a couple of races last Sat. I tried to replicate them from your ratings. It looks as if you lengthen the price for the top rater and shorten the rest. Is that right?

Gday Chinbok...

no.. what I do is convert the top rater to 100.. so if the top rater is 80 I do this 80/.8 =100.. then fill down that formula for the rest of the race... It makes it easier if the top rater is 100.. and keeps the relativitiy with the rest of the field.

I then use a very simple and very old (rough as well) way of allocating rankings it goes like this.. goit it froma well known racing mag actually.. 100,75,56,42,32,24,18,13,10,8,6,4,3,2,1

I will skip a rank if there is a gap of 10 or so points (on the converted rating)

You then total the rankings... Say the total is 400.. U then divide the 400 by each individual horse ranking.. So if the horse ranking is 100 .. the assessed price is $4.00 if it is 75 it is $5.3 and so on.. That will give you a 100% market

To replicate the TABS around the place I then divide the assessed price by 1.18 should give you a 118% market or there abouts...

All prices are to 1 decimal point

See attached for the last Race at Rocky today to get an idea of how I do it

Hope that helps a bit

[crash]

xpt,
Warned you about this forum page. your system is getting a bit of a hiding mate.

[feather]

Fav in newspaper, with either t-d-c,

20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT .td.2nd.
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY ..t.1st $4.20
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR ..t.x
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED..c.1st $3.90

[xptdriver]

xpt,
Warned you about this forum page. your system is getting a bit of a hiding mate.

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhh ........ *sigh* Always the way eh?

2 bets 2 losses ah well the last at Rocky #1 2nd Fav on UNI fav elsewhere and wins... thats the punt tho mate... I use Uni I hope some others didn't :)

Still Got northam left tho

[xptdriver]

Fav in newspaper, with either t-d-c,

20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT .td.2nd.
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY ..t.1st $4.20
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR ..t.x
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED..c.1st $3.90

Indeed something to consider... Thanks for that

[crash]

20/07/2006 12:12 GEELONG 1 1 ALL THE GLORY unp. [3rd. fav.] nb.
20/07/2006 12:47 GEELONG 2 1 ON THE KNOCKER $1.90p fav.
20/07/2006 4:02 NORTHAM 7 1 EXSTRA 3rd. fav. unp. nb.
20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT $1.90p. [3rd. fav.] nb.
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY $1.90p [3rd. fav.] nb.
20/07/2006 2:07 ROCKHAMPTON 3 1 RIN TIN odds-on fav. unp.
20/07/2006 2:45 ROCKHAMPTON 4 1 CARD PLAYER 3rd. fav. unp. nb.
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR Fav. unp.
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED Fav. $3.70w $1.90p

Prices stab.

[Sportz]

crash, I think Giggling Boy actually won.

[xptdriver]

Using Uni Tab as I do.. there were 2 bets today and both fell in a heap... ah well always tomorrow.. both unplaced

They were :

20/07/2006 2:07 ROCKHAMPTON 3 1 RIN TIN
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR

With the fav being on the first 3 today , (that is in my top 3 and fav) there were 17 bets, 6 winners, returned 16.85 (Best odds) and on the place returned 11 places 16.7 (Best Tote) so a losing day all round :(

[crash]

Your right sportz, giggleing boy did win.

I think Murphy reads this thread a lot xpt.

[xptdriver]

I will continue with this losing vein... who knows maybe ya can ley em :)

Don't forget this list is only the contenders the bets come when they start as fav.. I use unitab to determine that, some use Newspapers pre post (it seems not a bad way to go).. maybe the West Australian may be ok as well .

There are a stack to consider today... Good Luck

And Crash lets hope Murphy has lost his glasses today :)

21/07/2006 12:20 DONALD 1 1 CLASSIC DANGER
21/07/2006 2:40 DONALD 5 1 TARNEIT
21/07/2006 3:52 DONALD 7 1 LIGHT OF THE WORLD
21/07/2006 4:32 DONALD 8 1 ALLENBY'S MATE
21/07/2006 12:00 TAMWORTH 1 1 FLYING MISSILE
21/07/2006 1:10 TAMWORTH 3 1 NEVER YOU MIND
21/07/2006 1:45 TAMWORTH 4 1 EIGHTOFUS
21/07/2006 2:20 TAMWORTH 5 1 WRIGGLE
21/07/2006 2:55 TAMWORTH 6 1 ACCEPTANCE SPEECH
21/07/2006 3:30 TAMWORTH 7 1 BRAIN EXPLOSION
21/07/2006 4:48 TAMWORTH 9 1 CAMPECHE
21/07/2006 12:27 TOWNSVILLE 1 1 HARD DRIVIN' MAMA
21/07/2006 1:02 TOWNSVILLE 2 1 TAKE THE SHOT
21/07/2006 1:37 TOWNSVILLE 3 1 DIGOS
21/07/2006 2:47 TOWNSVILLE 5 1 MIGHTY RIVER
21/07/2006 4:38 TOWNSVILLE 8 1 CRAFTY KING
21/07/2006 12:40 WERRIBEE 1 1 FLORIDA BAY
21/07/2006 1:15 WERRIBEE 2 1 ACCURATE GUN
21/07/2006 2:25 WERRIBEE 4 1 POINT OF CALL
21/07/2006 3:35 WERRIBEE 6 1 SHINKO BLU

[kiwi]

G'day XPT, here is an enhancement maybe?!

Topweight, favourite and 100 rated Unitab .

Read somewhere Fav when toppie wins 50% of races.