PARLAY QUESTION

[YoungBuck]

If anyone can help, i am working on a betting strategy, and i need
to know some probabilities.

If i was to back 3 favoured teams in 2 team events, with all favourites definite 57% chances of winning, what are my percentage chance of:

A: 0-3 favourites winning
B: 1-3 favourites winning
C: 2-3 favourites winning
D: 3-3 favourites winning

Thanks in advance, if anyone can help.

[mad]

Someone like JFC would be able to confirm this but as far as i am aware the answer would go along the lines of this:

Favourite: 57%
Underdog: 43%

0 favourites winning: 0.43*0.43*0.43 = 7.95%
1 favourites winning: 0.57*0.43*0.43 = 10.5%
2 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.43 = 13.97%
3 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.57 = 18.51%

Think that's correct.

[YoungBuck]

Thanks Mad. That was kind of the equation i was working on, but what happens the other 50% of the time?

[Floydyboy]

you lose

[jfc]

Someone like JFC would be able to confirm this but as far as i am aware the answer would go along the lines of this:

Favourite: 57%
Underdog: 43%

0 favourites winning: 0.43*0.43*0.43 = 7.95%
1 favourites winning: 0.57*0.43*0.43 = 10.5%
2 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.43 = 13.97%
3 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.57 = 18.51%

Think that's correct.

Surely lots of you would benefit from trying to work out the correct answer? Why no takers?

Anyway this is a simple problem answered by the Binomial Disribution.

There are obviously 3 different ways of 1 favourite winning.
Likewise for 2 favourites winning.

So if you multiply the middle 2 calculations by 3, the new total probability should be 1.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

[YoungBuck]

Cheers jfc. That's what i needed.

[mad]

Someone like JFC would be able to confirm this but as far as i am aware the answer would go along the lines of this:

Favourite: 57%
Underdog: 43%

0 favourites winning: 0.43*0.43*0.43 = 7.95%
1 favourites winning: 0.57*0.43*0.43 = 10.5%
2 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.43 = 13.97%
3 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.57 = 18.51%

Think that's correct.Favourite: 57%
Underdog: 43%

0 favourites winning: 0.43*0.43*0.43 = 7.95%

1 favourites winning: 0.57*0.43*0.43 = 10.54%
1 favourites winning: 0.43*0.57*0.43 = 10.54%
1 favourites winning: 0.43*0.43*0.57 = 10.54% (31.62)

2 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.43 = 13.97%
2 favourites winning: 0.57*0.43*0.57 = 13.97%
2 favourites winning: 0.43*0.57*0.57 = 13.97% (41.91)

3 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.57 = 18.51%

Total probability of outcome = 99.99%

God-damn amatuers...LOL.
That's correct now.