Sensational CRAPPY HORSE System.

[Bhagwan]

Here`s another fine product from the House of CRAP.

This is a plan to take on those Egg Head punters who recon they know more than you do. You know the ones, "this horse can`t loose", "anything that beats it will win the race", "should win with a leg in the air"
"the informed money is on...". "he`s so fit he is jumping out of his skin...he can`t loose".
Is`nt amazing how many don`t win & when they do win , they pay 3/5ths. of F...All

"How`s that so "? I hear you squeeling.
Put your Mad Punters Hat on because we are going for a ride with the Wild Ponies.

1) We coscentrate on TAB Nos. 2-3. 4-5. 6-7.
We do not replace any that maybe scratched.

2)We bet on only those horses that finished 4th. or worse last start.
(There will usually be more than one horse per race.)

3)Delete any that are resuming or any having their 1st. carrer start.

4)Staking Method
(this is the important bit.)
TAB Nos.2-3 bet $4.00 win
TAB Nos.4-5 bet $3.00 win
TAB Nos.6-7 bet $2.00 win

Bank required $600
Av.S/R 35%
Av.O/L $9.00
Av. Div approx.$12.00
This bank will allow for a run of outs of approx. 60 before you do you Butt in.

The crappier the meeting , the better it performs.

The good thing with this plan is that all bets can be placed at the beginning of the day , great for busy punters.

I can hear some of you say ,"Have I been living in part of someone elses conspiracy to do all my punting doe"?
Maybe you have.
It`s time to strike back.!
Maybe the fine House of CRAP has the answer.

Any derogitory "Egg Headed" comments about this plan will be treated with complete contempt without prejudice.

Remember, CRAP is King.

[Bhagwan]

RESULTS for Sat 17th.Aug.

8 meetings , 61 races all up.

Dividends (Qld.)
TAB Nos.2-3.
$23.00+4.00+3.30+16.00+3.40+3.20+4.70+9.10+
10.20+47.00
=$123.90*$4.00+$495.60

TAB Nos.4-5.
$6.10+3.10+14.30+2.90+8.40+3.60
=$38.40*$3.00=$115.20

TAB.Nos.6-7.
$12.30+13.70+14.20+32.20+3.20+21.10+22.80
=$119.50*$2.00=$239.00

Total Ret.$850.00
Total O/L.$554.00
Profit....$296.00
POT........53%

Another fine service from The House of CRAP.

[luckylouie]

Dear Bagwahn,
Just a note to say good on you for posting so many interesting and fun systems for us all to play with. Any egghead who knocks you should look at his/her own POT before doing so. Keep up the good work.
LuckyLouie (although I wasn't so lucky on saturday).

[Bhagwan]

Thanks Luckylouie,
It`s appreciated.

[becareful]

I'm still trying to work out whether you are serious with this one Bhagwan or whether you are pulling our collective legs. :smile:

[hermes]

Bhagwan,

My several systems all turn up crap, but this system will make them obsolete. Many thanks.

Hermes

:smile:

[Bhagwan]

Oh, Ohh, Warning !, Warning ! , Egghead at 3.00 o`clock , Egghead at 3.00 o`clock.
Man your positions !.

Don`t worry about it becareful or should it be CarefulB. with a capital "C" .
Take my advise , DONT BET !.
This system is not for you.

Leave it to people who are into punting to decide ,because a serious punter dos`ent need to be spoon fed "every" "single" "piece" of information & observation ,to make up their own mind ,if it`s for them or not .

Serious punters do a thing called research over approx. 150+ races before outlaying any real money of their own .

You might like to join them one day.

Those type of derogitory & un-called for aggressive remarks ,will be treated with contempt they deserve with extreem prejudice, as I warned in the the original posting .

Go to to the Fight Site if you want to start a blue with people, leave us punters to the business in hand ,of shareing ideas & "puntin" .

God Bless You ! , you CarefulB you.

[becareful]

On 2002-08-19 10:23, Bhagwan wrote:
Those type of derogitory & un-called for aggressive remarks ,will be treated with contempt they deserve with extreem prejudice, as I warned in the the original posting .


:eek: :eek: :eek:

Oh dear - did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning Bhagwan??? I have reread my post about a dozen times but I cannot see anything derogatory or aggressive in it at all - in fact the only posts on this thread with any derogatory and aggressive remarks are yours Bhagwan. I simply questioned whether a post from "The House of Crap" was intended as a serious post or a humorous one. I guess from your reply you are deadly serious!

Best of luck with it Bhagwan. Gotta go now - I have some serious punting to do.

[peakester]

Bhagwan,

Love the name HOUSE OF C.

Can you enlighten me to the logic of this system ie how you came to discover/formulate
it.
Cheers!

PS Thanks for your reply to the ratings 100 system.

[Fryingpan]

Bhagwan and everyone

I am absolutely fascinated by the House of Crap. Last night I tried to cut the crap out of the selections as they can be some bets that are wild.

I read another post about using TABQ ratings so thought to use them as filters to do the above.

Filters I used
1) if there are 3 or more within TAB No.2-7 which have come 1 2 3 in last start then pass the race
2) if there are more than 3 with TABQ ratings of 93 or better below TAB No.7 then pass the race.
3)Back the wonderful Bhagwan House of Crap selections if TABQ ratings are 93 or better.

I emailed to TABQ to ask how they get the ratings and the reply was that they are based on the AAP fast form 5 ratings. So I went to AAP site for some results and it appears that 93-100 raters win 89% of all races. Correct me if I didn't read the results right.

Feel free to try/or find holes in the above extra filters.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-09-02 10:23 ]</font>

[hermes]

Good post, Fryingpan. I'm interested in the QTAB ratings, and in Bhagwan's crappy horse system. I like the filters you suggest. I'II give it a try. Plenty of crappy races around during the week to try it on.

Increasingly I'm thinking 180 deg. to what I used to think. I used to think the name of the game was finding quality horses to bet on. But EVERYONE is trying to find quality horses to bet on, so if you find quality horses it is really hard to make a profit long term unless you are that bit better than everyone else. (I'm not.)

I've been making a (small) profit on long shots and crappy horses lately. Its much more satisfying.

I realised that there are two sides to every statistic. If 30% of favourites win, that means that 70% don't. If 87% or so of winners have QTAB ratings of 93-100, then 13% of winners have ratings of 92 or less - there might be an opportunity in that 13%.

Keep us posted on how you do with this, Fryingpan. I'm interested. There might be a race or two suitable at Sale today so I'II give it a try.

Hermes

[becareful]

Welcome to the Dark Side Hermes!

People will raise their eyebrows when you tell them you prefer midweek racing to Saturday, snigger when you say you are aiming for a 10% strike rate and laugh out loud when you tell them the horses you have bet on. But just remember most of these people will be losing their money and you will be winning it!

[Fryingpan]

Helllo everyone.

Sale's selections according to the modified TABQ filters are
R1 7
R4 2,3,4
R6 3,6,7

Dalby
R2 3,5,6
R3 7
R5 7
R7 3,7

Warwick Farm
R2 2,3,4,5,6 (quite a few and something I'm still pondering over.... the lolly scramble bet/collect meltdown)
R3 2,5,6,7
R4 2,5,6,7
R5 2,7 (No.1 is not included but I think is a strong bet)
R6 2,3,6,7

When there are more than 3 selections I get a little nervous playing them. Maybe there needs to be a rule for that. I guess what the House of Crap is leaning on is the handicapper's way of sorting the race out versus the bias we give towards last start placegetters.

[Fryingpan]

Results and quick review.

Some parts worked others didn't.

So I'm adding two new rules to tighten the ship a bit further for tomorrow.

1) No maiden races. (I don't think the ratings have much bearing on these as much as handicap type races). OR (as a second perspective take consider all selections 2-7 irrespective of the ratings) I'll go with the former for a start.
2) Take the lowest two TAB numbers as bets only. I know this is drastic but hopefully it will relieve the extra betting.

Adapt the above to today's selections does this
Sale

R4 2,3...2 won $3.30
R6 3,6...3 won $6.40

Dalby

R5 7
R7 3,7

Warwick Farm
R2 2,3...2 won $3.40
R3 2,5
R4 2,6 (late scratching of 5) 6 won $6.40
R5 2,7
R6 2,3

I did this with yesterday's selections and it brought up a surplus. Coupled with Bhagwan's stake the above would have cost
(2-3)@$44 + (4-5)@3 + (6-7)@$10 = $57 for a return of $65.2

[Bhagwan]

Well done Fryingpan ,
Keep up the positive research.

[Bhagwan]

Here`s another idea that might have some merit , using the Crappy Horse staking plan.

1)Target the 2nd.3rd.4th.5th Fav. 2min. before jump (leaving out the Fav.) from the Teletext.
This works particulaly well where the Fav. is paying $4.00+ 2 min. before jump.
They have a good track record of falling over when you want them to .

2)We only bet on the ones that fall into the TAB No. area of 2-7 .Then bet accordingly ,using the staking plan discussed, ignoring their past positioning.

We are taking the assumption that the handicapper has some input of form study.
You will find that you are usually left with 2-3 runners .


You could use the market from the paper, that way all bets could be placed at once , with some good prices to be had.

[hermes]

"People will raise their eyebrows when you tell them you prefer midweek racing to Saturday, snigger when you say you are aiming for a 10% strike rate and laugh out loud when you tell them the horses you have bet on."

Yep, already the object of local derision. As the spring starts people are itching for the big races and the champions. I'm looking around for lousy races and crappy horses.


Fryingpan,

Again, I think your filters are just what's needed. Its great to see constructive research on this forum. Someone throws in an idea, other people bounce it around, someone else refines it, everyone takes it away to do as they will with it. Profitable punting Fryingpan.

Cheers

Hermes

[Equine Investor]

Good on you guys for going against the trend.
I was advocating the idea of looking at everything in reverse and got "run out of town" so to speak by other ignorant people (who shall remain nameless).

Keep plugging away because it works if you refine it a little.

:wink:

[Fryingpan]

Bhagwan and everyone,

Thanks for the kind words of support. It is fun trying out lots of different ways and attempting to slice the pie from a new angle to see if the pickup is better. I have mettled with the filters for some time and believe I've strangled the crap out of the picks. So after a little more thought realised that it's still important to contain "ability" and find this amongt the others which isn't the favourite. I've always wondered what the ULTIMATE outcome of assessing form, and somehow it might just be a road to finding ...... the favourite. (most of the time at least).

So I'm going to take on the 2nd 3rd 4th and possibly 5th favourite consideration, but also instead of using a filter, come up with a 'funnel'( new concept) which doesn't eliminate like a filter, rather works out the distribution of ability amongst the runners in the field. More on this later.

[Marcus]

Memories ...

[thorns]

Interseting system. Going over todays results it looks as though it cleaned up. By my quick look over results the figures were:

Out: 108
In: 161.7

Thats pretty good in my books!!

[thorns]

Monday was a loss

Out: 411
In: 395.6

The day was almost a complete disaster, only thing saving it was a big win of $86 in a race at alice springs. Otherwise the figures would have read

Out: 411
In: 222.4 :(

[Shaun]

Don't let me die around these boards i might get dug up one day.

[Bhagwan]

$65 hit at Sth Africa R3 Wed 7/5/08

[thorns]

Is this a system which you still use on a regular basis Bhagwan? If so, how has it feared in the long run?

Cheers
Paul

[Bhagwan]

$86 shot Bendigo R2 Thur 8/5/08

I tend to cherry pick races with questionable class where anything could win.

Cheers.

[Mr Quaddie]

Does anyone notice that the pre-post favourite listed in the daily newspaper hardly wins at all? Maybe 20% of the time.

It seems to me that it is best not to include those favourites when making a selection for each race.

[Mancunian]

Which newspaper Mr Q ?
I'm not sure that they are all the same, particularly for Sat. races where there may be a big difference from the early editions to what ends up Fav on the day

[Bhagwan]

Hi Quaddie,
If you had lay bet the Pre-post fav listed on the on-line Racingandsports on Tues 6/5/08 & Wed 7/5/08 you would have been fried alive.

Its SR was approx 38%

Sunshine Coast for example hit 7 from 8 pre-post Favs.

What one will find with these, is that the wins tend to come in batches followed by a couple of bad batches.
The bad batches, run of outs is always longer than the run of wins.

One will find days where the SR is terrible , then there will be one or two days where they seem to get up every second race.
I have seen days where 8 in row get up followed by a loser then 9 more in a row get up.
The odds of that occurring mathematically is something like 10,000/1
but it does happen.

At the end of the year it always averages out to approx 30% rain hail or shine , one could call this a recurring factor, but it sure does not feel like it when one is betting on them to win or lay betting to fall over.
It tends to change day to day.
I have seen days where their SR is only 13% & other days 45%
This can make it very frustrating for a punter who chasses them.

If one is going to bet the Fav in each race , try & do some form study to try & weed out the false Favs.

Maybe target Favs that are going down in class.
This will increase ones SR but the average prices will tend to be shorter as well.

Cheers.


Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

It depends entirely on which of them start favourite.
There are days where hardly any of the PP favourites end up being favourite and others, where they all start shorter and most of them win.

You can usually tell, just look at whether the second or third favourite has a more successful trainer and/or jockey.

[Chrome Prince]

At the end of the year it always averages out to approx 30% rain hail or shine , one could call this a recurring factor, but it sure does not feel like it when one is betting on them to win or lay betting to fall over.
It tends to change day to day.
I have seen days where their SR is only 13% & other days 45%
This can make it very frustrating for a punter who chasses them.


Totally agree, although I've seen blocks of time where favourites win almost everything for a month or more.
Happened in the UK last year, and happened here last July/August at metro tracks.
I know, I was laying them :(

At one point in the UK, they had a 60% and then an 80% strike rate during a whole month. Only now has it returned to normal, still waiting for the nice run of outs which will even it out to 30%.

For the record, this included flat races.

[Bhagwan]

Yes Chrome, I remember that UK period very well .
That was weird how long the period went for , I have never seen anything like that happen for many years.


But at the end of the year , the 30% average stats, will not be denied.

[cinna]

I've had a retrospective look at this & today it found Balak. R2 - 2 Kenforce for $42 & Sandown R8 - 5 Hargitay $13 Uni but $17 Stab. There don't seem to be as many to back as I'd initially assumed. You're definitely right re. certain races to target & I think I'll look at a minimum price angle. Certainly worth more than just a look. Thanks Bagwan. the old bloke I used to get my ratings from (Jim - deceased) kept telling me to 'wait for the pendulum to swing as it always will' & he was spot on where runs of roughies or favs is concerned.

[Mr Quaddie]

You could potentially have 6 bets per race if we are targetting TAB nos 2,3,4,5,6,7.

Of horses numbered 2,3,4,5,6,7 we eliminate those who have finished in the placings in their last race.

We also eliminate those that are scratched from the race.

[Bhagwan]

A few interesting hits in HK Wed 14/5/08
R2 $36.90
R3 $51.70
R4 $15.40

[Bhagwan]

Fri 16/5/08
Wagga R7 $85.70
Bend R8 $43.70

[Bhagwan]

Sat 17/5/08
Rose R4 $33.50 shot

[Mr Quaddie]

what are the rules? bet horses 2 to 7 if they finish unplaced last start? that could mean 6 bets per race right?

[Bhagwan]

That's right, but it is very rare to see 6 selections.
In this case, if you dont like the value in the race ,then dont bet the race.

[cinna]

Another couple @ T/ville today & the last @ Taree. Not huge prices but not a lot of bets either. I'd better start acting instead of looking after the event.... but then again, knowing my luck they'll dry up :???:

[thorns]

Was a good day of results at Riccarton Park in New Zealand today, hit three nice priced winner, and a few other shorter winner for the day.

R1 $16.60
R8 $23.70
R10$15.80

[Bhagwan]

Sat 24/5/08 a couple of the stronger payers on the day.
MV R2 $19.00
Belmont R5 $25.60

[Bhagwan]

Sun 25/5/08
Some of the stronger payers on the day.

HK R7 $59.80
HK R8 $15.00
Hob R4 $16.40
Mild R3 $15.80
Kalg R3 $30.80
Kalg R8 $14.20

[Mr Quaddie]

Could someone PLEASE outline the rules?

[stugots]

1) We coscentrate on TAB Nos. 2-3. 4-5. 6-7.
We do not replace any that maybe scratched.

2)We bet on only those horses that finished 4th. or worse last start.
(There will usually be more than one horse per race.)

3)Delete any that are resuming or any having their 1st. carrer start.

4)Staking Method
(this is the important bit.)
TAB Nos.2-3 bet $4.00 win
TAB Nos.4-5 bet $3.00 win
TAB Nos.6-7 bet $2.00 win

Bank required $600
Av.S/R 35%
Av.O/L $9.00
Av. Div approx.$12.00
This bank will allow for a run of outs of approx. 60 before you do you Butt in.


isnt this them?

[Mr Quaddie]

That is great stugots.

Does this only apply to Saturdays or can it be used everyday?

Does it apply only to metro or can it apply to any track?

[reded]

That is great stugots.

Does this only apply to Saturdays or can it be used everyday?

Does it apply only to metro or can it apply to any track?


If you read previous posts you will notice results from everywhere everyday so im guessing you can apply this to any race you like

[Bhagwan]

Fri 30/5/08 a couple of the better payers on the day.
Cess R2 $47.30
Cess R5 $54.00

[cinna]

Bhagwan, just dropping a couple of lines to thank you for this little pearler. I'd been going very poorly most of today but picked up the Oaks winner, Amarie in Adelaide (had $5 on 5 , exactered with the fav both ways but forgot to Q 'my' 5!!) & got 40% of the last Tri in Melb. Admittedly the winner wasn't there but my ratings had it on 98 for 1st up, Hall had been btn on a couple of shorties & Noonan seems to be setting them for 1st up wins these days so boxed 4. I rarely do Tris & even more rarely, 1st 4s & was spewing I'd've had it but little fish are very sweet so on to Honkers tomorrow!!! Thanks again - thumbs up smiley!

[Bhagwan]

Well done Cinna.
Thanks for your kind words.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Some of the larger payers Sat 31/5/08

EF R1 $20.00 & R6 $26.80
Flem R5 $25.50
Bend R6 $38.80
Morph R7 $21.40