A Break-Even System

[wesmip1]

Here is another system :

Rules :
1. Rating = 100
2. Last 3 starts are 1st or 2nd ( ie 112,221,121,211)
3. Can not be 222 (must sjhow a win)
4. Must have a "C","T","W","D" in form line

Selections : 1398
WIN $ : 1392.70
PLACE $ :1361.90

This is the basis for some filters ... good luck.

[leroy]

Looks promising,
Whats the results like if you don't include the "W" selections ?
Thanks
Leroy

[wesmip1]

leroy,

Here are the results without "W"

Selections 1182
WIN $1174.90
PLACE $1158.7
Pretty much the same.....but less bets

[wesmip1]

just to clarify its a "C" or a "T" or a "W" or a "D" in form line or any combination of those.

[Neil]

Just a suggestion.

I can see the relevance of having a "C", "T", "D" or a combination of those in the form line.

However a "W" in the form line appears irrelevant to me unless it is a rain affected track.

Maybe on rain affected tracks the horse MUST have a "W" in the form line plus at least one of "C", "T" or "D".

[Crackone]

Just a suggestion.

I can see the relevance of having a "C", "T", "D" or a combination of those in the form line.

However a "W" in the form line appears irrelevant to me unless it is a rain affected track.

Maybe on rain affected tracks the horse MUST have a "W" in the form line plus at least one of "C", "T" or "D".Hi If you look at it the other way the horse may be a mud runner and has not won on good ground.

[feather]

Wesnip1
I did have one similar on the go, but last three starts 4-3-2 or 1, with first must been last start eg. 421.

When i gave up on it. from
start of year to 5th july,
metro tracks only
max 1400m ,
c-d only

85r x 35w $135.50.

Going through and just looking at 21,
48r x 22w $87.40

[darkydog2002]

Ah Feather.

Always good to hear your thoughts and thanks.

Cheers.
darky.

[leroy]

leroy,

Here are the results without "W"

Selections 1182
WIN $1174.90
PLACE $1158.7
Pretty much the same.....but less betsThanks wesmip,
Is it possible with your data base to include those horses that
are in top 3 radio tab selections ?same rules as above.

Leroy

[wesmip1]

Neil,

Results per condition for 'W' (and other rules below ie 100, 122, etc)

DEAD
Selections : 141
WIN $ :176.10
PLACE $ : 141.00

FAST
Selections : 33
WIN $ :42.70
PLACE $ : 35.20

GOOD
Selections : 484
WIN $ :471.60
PLACE $ : 473.00

HEAVY
Selections : 89
WIN $ :71.90
PLACE $ : 72.30

SLOW
Selections : 90
WIN $ :62.80
PLACE $ : 88.30


Looking at this it looks like horses with a 'W' in their form lose too much value in SLOW and HEAVY Conditions but they offer good value in other conditions.

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

Feather,

I haven't kept distance but will grab it when I do my next run for data.

Leroy,

I'll grab the radio tips and tipster tips on the next run as well.

Good Luck.

[Wombat2]

Feather

Whats wrong with 85 races with 35 wins = 41%SR and average div of $3.87 or 61% pto
48 races with 22 wins = 45% SR and average div of $3.97 or 54% pto unless I have read it wrong or gotten my figures wrong.

Cheers wombat2

[SeeDee]

DEAD
Selections : 141
WIN $ :176.10
PLACE $ : 141.00

FAST
Selections : 33
WIN $ :42.70
PLACE $ : 35.20
Well, there you have it. Only bet on DEAD FAST tracks. But make sure you back a DEAD FAST horse!!