staking plans

[darkydog2002]

thank you to all who replied to my previous letters.if a method fails at level stakes will a staking plan such as the power of ten make it into a profitable one.

[becareful]

I know some others here don't agree with me but in my opinion it is impossible for a staking plan to make a losing method into a winning one. In the long run your POT will be exactly the same regardless of your staking plan - all staking plans do is increase your dollar profit by increasing your turnover. They are a bit like using leverage in the stock market - they can increase $ profits if you are successful but they will also make your losses worse if you are not!

Some staking plans (generally the Loss Chasing systems) will appear to turn a losing system into a winning one in the short term because they can "hide" the losses. Basically instead of losing a small amount each day at level stakes you win a small amount 95% of the time but that other 5% you lose a huge amount which wipes out all your profits (and then some).

[hermes]

I can only concur with Becareful. It wasn't that long ago that I asked myself exactly the same question Dirtydog. A punter friend told me he could turn small losses into major profits with a clever staking plan of the loss chasing type. I tried it out over 60 or so races and was very impressed. But people in this forum and elsewhere - people with very good mathematical minds and lots of experience - insisted it won't work. So I tried a bigger sample. In the end I realised what was happening. The losses were being "hidden", the bet size was increasingly alarmingly, and on bet 187 it all came crashing down. Smart people tell me *every* loss chase is like this unless you already have POT at level stakes, and if you already have POT at level stakes then there are better methods than losing chasing.

If anyone doubts the maths of it go to the Wizard of Odds:

http://www.thewizardofodds.com/game/scam.html

People the world over send him you-beaut staking plans claiming they will turn LOT into POT. He debunks them all with hard maths.

Cheers

Hermes

[becareful]

Interesting site Hermes - I love the name :smile:

[hermes]

Great name, isn't it!

He quotes from "Probability and Measure" (second edition) by Patrick Billingsley who does the maths and concludes on pg.95 of said edition, "Thus no betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise."

Let me quote that again:

"No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise."

The adage "Take no man's word for it!" is a good one but this isn't a case of some man's word, its a case of the laws of mathematics.

Hermes

[Equine Investor]

I wonder if a certain person who had a loss chasing strategy believes it now?

....and Ernie.