LAST START WINNER LAY SYSTEM

[YoungBuck]

Going to try a new lay system out for a bit of fun. It goes against the grain a little, in that I will only lay horses that have won their last start. The rules are as follows:

1. Won its last start by 0.5 lengths or less.

2. Up in weight from last start any amount.

3. Up in Field Strength (FS a positive + figure) from DFS formguide.

4. Has not won at distance before, and/or going.

5. Choose the highest rated (DFS) applicable horse per race.

The theory is the horse may have given its absolute best to just win last start, and with the extra weight, class and the unknown factor of distance and perhaps going, it should be worth laying. I will trial it for a while, and if I cop a hammering i will pull the pin. Will post selections when I have time but prob not every day. Staking is from a method i have come across on another forum. Ficticious bank is $1000.00

- Maximum lay is @ 6.50.
- Lay 2% of your betting bank for odds 0 - 3.50
- Lay 1% or your betting bank for odds 3.51 - 6.50

Selections for today:
Cant.
R3 N2 SECOND CHOICE
R5 N6 CARTOONS

[crash]

Lay any last start winner with 10% or less win strike rate that has had more than 15 starts and you can't loose. Once horses have had 15 starts their SR is pretty much set in stone for the rest of their career. If they won last start the odds are massively in your favour [9/1] they won't repeat for awhile, let alone their next start :-))

[YoungBuck]

Sounds sensible, i'll keep an eye on it Crash.

[YoungBuck]

Found one that fits Crash's criteria. R5 N3 FLYING DANSINO.
I guess you wouldnt lay any more than 9.00. 18 starts for 1 win last start.
We'll see how it goes and what odds Betfair might throw up.

[Sportz]

Selections for today:
Cant.
R3 N2 SECOND CHOICE
R5 N6 CARTOONS

Good start. It was very disappointing at short odds.

[YoungBuck]

Thanks Sportz. Love to see a disappointing fav when im laying it!

[crash]

It lost [for sure] but I wouldn't be offering 9/1 on these Ned's !!!

See, winning money at this game only take a bit of simple logic and a dash of horse sense :-))

[DR RON]

Under a new method I'm trialling Flying Dansino is 4th rated in that race. My top 4 are 4-6-10-3 . Number 4 currently paying 48.20 on Unitab? Might have to have a dabble.

[crash]

Found one that fits Crash's criteria. R5 N3 FLYING DANSINO.
I guess you wouldn't lay any more than 9.00. 18 starts for 1 win last start.
We'll see how it goes and what odds Betfair might throw up.

It'll have that SR for the rest of it's career. It's amazing how often these eventual clag bottle refills go out and start favourite next start when they [finally] win one !

[YoungBuck]

Crash, I wouldnt feel real comfortable laying at 9.00 either, i laid SECOND CHOICE at 3.00 which is much more my comfort area. Anything over 6.50, you would want to have a cracking selection process at work or you will end up struggling. Occasionally i lay at higher odds, but it is only when i am laying 3 or four horses in the one race. It would be interesting to see how your laying method would work on paper @ no more than 9.00. Going by early tote prices, I think it will be no bet today.

[YoungBuck]

Results for the day:

SECOND CHOICE: unplaced, laid 20.00 @ 3.00
CARTOONS: unplaced, laid 20.00 @ 3.10

Starting Bank: $1000
Today's Profit:$40
Overall Profit: $40
Bank: $1040
2-2: 100%

[Sportz]

Including Flying Dansino, 100% successful today. Or should that be 100% unsuccessful? :D

[Crackone]

[QUOTE=YoungBuck]Results for the day:


CARTOONS: unplaced, laid 20.00 @ 3.10

Ha I think that was my $20

[Chrome Prince]

SECOND CHOICE: laid 20.00 @ 3.00
CARTOONS: laid 20.00 @ 3.10



Was it easy to get those prices matched, they are so close to the TAB dividends, I'm amazed.

[crash]

Money for jam Chrome. you can learn somthing every day if you keep an open mind.

[YoungBuck]

Chrome, those prices were readily available, yes.

[Mark]

Don't forget the 5% commission.

[YoungBuck]

Thanks Mark, forgot that important detail.

Revised figures including 5% commission:

Starting Bank: $1000
Today's Profit:$38
Overall Profit: $38
Bank: $1038
2-2: 100%

[YoungBuck]

Can't see any selections today.

[YoungBuck]

Correction, there are a few 'Crash Lays', if he doesnt mind me using that term:

Murray Bridge.
R5 N5 BREAKER BEN
R8 N3 SELSEY
R8 N15 GOLDEN REQUEST

[Chrome Prince]

Surely there is an absolute fortune to be made from inside info.

By inside info, I don't mean hush hush stuff, I mean what's not in the formguide.

If a trainer knows his horse has no chance of running in the first four, surely any lay price is acceptable?

If we know that a horse is coming back from injury / illness, has missed trackwork, is untractable in running, cannot win on a Heavy track etc etc.

There is a fortune to be made - BUT you must KNOW this to be the case, not speculate, because all it takes is one or two bad calls to bring it all undone, especially at decent odds.

My next project is Harness horses that break in running. I'm not sure, but I believe it's only during score up to the mobile or standing start, if they break they get stood down pending trial.

I have a small list of reknown breakers compiled already, when they go around at short odds, that's the lay time.

[crash]

Go through the gear changes [most punters don't]. Any horse with any gear change is suspect, but if it has bar plates or a tail chain it has positively no hope and if the horse has glue-on shoes it's there for the scenery. I read somewhere that only 2 horses won last year with glue-on shoes fitted:-)

[YoungBuck]

Of course there must be plenty of money made from laying with some inside knowledge. I also feel you can make decent profits without the inside word, just thorough form analysis and responsible staking plan. I think this can only be done consistantly by laying false favourites, or vunerable favourites at short odds. If you have a strong selection process, that can pick losers 80% of the time instead of 70%, even with an average price of 3.50, you should make tidy profit long term. As for harness, if you can get short odds of a notorious breaker, then you are doing well. You are then still at the mercy of chance. But you would probably have a good edge long term if you stuck at it and kept tabs on things as you say you are. Good luck with it.

[Chrome Prince]

That's exactly what I'm getting at crash, knowledge like this is indeed money for jam.

Maybe I should wear a tail chain too, as I'm often accused of sucking air through my anus, but usually it's the reverse!

:D :D :D

[Chrome Prince]

Of course there must be plenty of money made from laying with some inside knowledge. I also feel you can make decent profits without the inside word, just thorough form analysis and responsible staking plan. I think this can only be done consistantly by laying false favourites, or vunerable favourites at short odds. If you have a strong selection process, that can pick losers 80% of the time instead of 70%, even with an average price of 3.50, you should make tidy profit long term. As for harness, if you can get short odds of a notorious breaker, then you are doing well. You are then still at the mercy of chance. But you would probably have a good edge long term if you stuck at it and kept tabs on things as you say you are. Good luck with it.

I once lost my laying bank after 10, yes 10 favourites won in a row overseas :(

U.S. U.K. Ireland - 3 meetings 10 in a row - a real nightmare.

After that, I learned to be selective and do it a different way.

A bank I built up from $250AUD to over $3,500AUD - live and learn.

[crash]

All good money spinners:

Belmont
r6/16 SUMMER NATION.. bar plates

Murry Bridge
r6/2 PINK FIT.. tongue tie again [horses hate these things and run accordingly]
r6/ 3 BELLARGO.. tongue tie again
r8/ 12 NORTHWOOD tongue tie again
WARWICK FARM
r7/8 ATHELNOTH.. Approved Race Plates (Front) Back On Approved Race Plates (Hind) Back On, Standard Race Tips (Front) Off Standard Race Tips (Hind) Off. [serious foot problems]
Werribee
r6/7 ALI SHUFFLE.. tongue tie first time

[Chrome Prince]

Which was the Group 1 horse that ran and won with a tongue tie on but then never lived up to it.

I remember it was the clash of Helenus and one other, and I'm not sure if it was Helenus or the other one which ran with a tongue tie.

I seem to recall it running down the straight at Flemington with most of it's tongue hanging out the side of it's mouth.

What worries me about tongue ties is that the horse wears it to prevent it from half swallowing or choking down on it's tongue or getting it's tongue over the bit, but the horse cannot swallow properly, so surely there is a risk of choking down on it's own spit???

[YoungBuck]

Dare I ask Chrome, without giving too much away, what is your preferred method of laying?

[Chrome Prince]

Dare I ask Chrome, without giving too much away, what is your preferred method of laying?

Dinner and a movie ;)

O.K. I'll answer sensibly.

All my methods whether backing or laying revolve around the same ideas. It's an angle rather than a method I guess.

Without getting into the Geldings thing again, here is an example I posted elsewhere and also replied to Partypooper re Moodometer two weeks ago.

(snipped)When Mares backup within a very short period of time, they are not
consistent, they need longer to recover.

Take Moodometer, went around almost odds on and ran nowhere in Perth two
Saturday's ago.

There are two advantages to this knowledge, a mare which does back up and
win is invariably well above average and a lot of them are champions.

Glamour Puss
Makybe Diva
Private Steer
River Dove
Sunline
La Bella Dama

All very hand mares and a couple of champions. The point is, they back up
and win and go on to bigger and better things. The one's that don't go on
with it, usually go out to stud or out with injury, not through non
performance.

Laying mares that are backing up is also a money spinner, as only a handful
can do it, so best to check if they've done it before.

So watch out for mares that backup and win and follow them.

Moodometer was rated 100 on Techform, she was backing up within 7 days and
was only beaten 2.0 lengths previous start in a Listed race and won her race
previous to that. She went around at $2.20.

Immediately that was a flag to me, short price, a mare and backing up
quickly.

So what of the rest of them, where to look....

Volition rated 96
Scenic assault rated 95
Cat In A Hat rated 94
Hotel Casuarina rated 93
Legend Express and Star Trek rated 92
Beyond Dispute rated 91

Volition won a Welter 7 days ago, was a gelding and rated highly.
Scenic Assault was beaten previous start by 7.5 lengths.
Cat In A Hat was beaten 4 lengths in a Welter previously.
Hotel Casuarina beaten 3.5 lengths in a Welter.
Legend Express only beaten 0.3L in a Welter 7 days ago.
Star Trek beaten 5.8 lengths in an Open
Beyond Dispute beaten 2.8L in an Open 14 days ago.

Selections then by class performance and fitness had to be Volition, Legend
Express and Beyond Dispute, all others were beaten too far to improve and
have a shake at this. (my personal cut off is 3 lengths beaten margin).

The winner was Beyond Dispute @ $22.70 the placings were filled by Scenic
Assault and Cat In A Hat.
So Volition and Legend Express didn't fire, the two high rated horses ran
the placings even though they were well beaten last start.

It really doesn't prove much, other than Moodometer was extremely
vulnerable, as there were a few geldings rated very close to her which were
rated just below her and fit.

This is just one example of the application of my method.

Out 3 units, in 22.70 units.

I can count on one hand the number of mares that can do it successfully, even when dropping two or three classes or up to 5kg, and they are exceptional - the champions go up in weight or class and do it, but the percentage is so small, it's a very lucrative area.

[YoungBuck]

LOL.... I asked for that.

[YoungBuck]

Thanks Chrome, I try to take in as much info as i can. I think it helps to look at every conceivable angle, and yours is another one to think about.

Just on laying, managed to lay Pacino @ 2.72 at Werribee. First start, expected to match it with Danequest coming off a solid Flemington run where it finished 2.0 lengths behind Okay Oky. Too many question marks for PACINO, i saw that as money for jam.

There's another angle for you Chrome, short priced hype horses with nothing on the board, racing against at least one other runner capable of winning. The more question marks the better. You will end up in front long term believe me.

I do the U.K laying also, have had 11 favs lose in a row, so i guess you take the good with the bad.

[crash]

On a simpler note, you could look for backmarkers in inside alleys and leaders in outside alleys. Both would be good lays.

[crash]

My ideal lay [no, the handbrake is not looking over my shoulder]

Must be over 5yrs. old.
Mare in an open
Over $5.50 SP
Has some form of gear change
Is a backmarker in an inside alley in a 9+ horse field
sprint distance only [the less the better].

[Chrome Prince]

Just so you know where all this came from, I once owned two thoroughbreds - a 5yo mare "Lucy" and a 10yo gelding "bobby" aka racing name Chrome Prince - hence my nickname (although I'm not a gelding ;) ).

The younger mare took a lot longer to recover from a really hard run, than the gelding who was twice her age. He'd be prancing around with his tail up ready to go a few days later. She'd be in one corner of the paddock, head hung low - off her food. A week later she was like him.

The gelding was a sprinter and the more he raced, the fitter and harder he became. It was when he came back from a break, it took him one or two runs to hit peak.

The mare was a middle distance horse, and she raced better fresh, the less racing, the better she was - so to speak.

The point is, that these were two different types of horses, but the common link was that that she took longer to recover in every respect than her older companion.

So, I thought maybe it's just the distance thing. So I went about making mental notes of horses when they returned to the stables or paddock for other owners and trainers. This was a smallish complex, but a couple of very well known country trainers, I used to chat with.

My original idea, evolved into a confirmed opinion. It wasn't distance, it was the horse.

The only mares that picked up quickly and raced well after a short period, were indeed the above average types - almost champions (well in the country anway) They's string together four or five wins on the trot easily, then come to town and win.

Anyway the long and the short of it is, many years later, I remembered my findings almost two decades ago and decided to run it through a database to test.

I was blown away at how well it still holds up today.

So I didn't just retrofit or pluck a few numbers to get where I am today.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's a list of some Mares who've done it...

Academy Girl x2
Akiva
Astravorn
Beautiful Bon Bon
Belle Bizarre
Blessed Sue
Blue Booty
Blue Paris
Bon Argent
Bumbelina x 4
Bush Honey x 2
Chevita
Classic Coup
Clear View
Colmaine
Coordinate
Cosmic Beam
Dance The Night
Dedicated Miss x 4
Delphine
Dreamtime Lover
Durrah
Final Shuffle
Fly For Me
Gentle
Grosvenaire
Hide The Halo
In The Gidgee
Just a Kiseki
Just Polite x 2
Kazakh Belle
Kentiara
Kentucky Hula
Kosta Nothin'
Lady Camelot
Legible
Maxerelle
Milady Clang
Miss Castaway
Miss Starnee
Miss Suzi Que
Miss Sydney
Miss Zoe
Nearmiss
Nightwood
Northern Heights
Nothin' Like Mary
Nothing Flat
Palatial
Private Steer
Professional Lady
Pure Black
Questamatic
Rapida
Raven's Pal
Regal Touch
Robyn's Furniture
Romantic Sea
Ruby Trois
Rulable
Saddle Delight
Salavat x 2
Sans Gene
Silver Seam
Sojustrememberthis
Southern Sal
Stark Touch
Stir Pak
Sunline
Supreme Sally
Tara's Range
Tears of Surprise
Temple Spirit
The Bartered Bride
Ticket To Rome
Tribula
Turbanator
Vain Zoe x 2
Valparaiso
Woodcut
Youhadyourwarning
Zedfire

Some very handy types who went on to win quite a few races, the one's that didn't were injured or went to stud.

Not one dud Mare in there ;)

[crash]

All good money spinners:

Belmont
r6/16 SUMMER NATION.. bar plates

Murry Bridge
r6/2 PINK FIT.. tongue tie again [horses hate these things and run accordingly]
r6/ 3 BELLARGO.. tongue tie again
r8/ 12 NORTHWOOD tongue tie again
WARWICK FARM
r7/8 ATHELNOTH.. Approved Race Plates (Front) Back On Approved Race Plates (Hind) Back On, Standard Race Tips (Front) Off Standard Race Tips (Hind) Off. [serious foot problems]
Werribee
r6/7 ALI SHUFFLE.. tongue tie first time

Belmont
r6/16 SUMMER NATION.. bar plates. Still to run but will run unplaced for sure with bar plates.

Murry Bridge
r6/2 PINK FIT.. tongue tie again [horses hate these things and run accordingly] 2nd. fav. [Unplaced]
r6/ 3 BELLARGO.. tongue tie again [unplaced]
r8/ 12 NORTHWOOD tongue tie again [unplaced]
WARWICK FARM
r7/8 ATHELNOTH.. Approved Race Plates (Front) Back On Approved Race Plates (Hind) Back On, Standard Race Tips (Front) Off Standard Race Tips (Hind) Off. [unplaced]
Werribee
r6/7 ALI SHUFFLE.. tongue tie first time [unplaced]

The longer priced horses can be laid off [bet on with TAB] to offset their odds to whatever degree of risk you want. Just like the bookies do.

[crash]

Correction, there are a few 'Crash Lays', if he doesnt mind me using that term:

Murray Bridge.
R5 N5 BREAKER BEN
R8 N3 SELSEY
R8 N15 GOLDEN REQUEST

Murray Bridge.
R5 N5 BREAKER BEN [unplaced]
R8 N3 SELSEY [3rd]
R8 N15 GOLDEN REQUEST [unplaced]

[Crackone]

"The longer priced horses can be laid off [bet on with TAB] to offset their odds to whatever degree of risk you want. Just like the bookies do."

Hi crash you can lay or back for less than $6 on betfair. This is how.

If you want to lay a horse at $10 but you only wont to lay it for $2, you put in lower odds say $5 and your minimum $6 bet (nobody is going to take them odds) so your lay is on now you change your $6 to $8 submit the bet.
Now you have two lays on your sceen, one for $6 and one for $2 cancel the $6 lay and change the odds on the $2 lay to what you like.

cheers

[crash]

Thanks for that info. Crackone [great name].

I've never layed horse on Betfair. I'm still mastering the art of backing the ************s to win :-))

[Mark]

I once lost my laying bank after 10, yes 10 favourites won in a row overseas

U.S. U.K. Ireland - 3 meetings 10 in a row - a real nightmare.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I once did my proverbial one fine morning on US races.
14 favs & 3 second favs in 17 races.

Plus I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned the number of favs that won last Saturday. In my 30 odd years of racing I've never seen anything like it.

[YoungBuck]

Havnt had the misfortune of a losing streak that bad Mark. At the moment I am on a winning streak in the U.K of 13 favs under 3.50 'losing' for me. I know it will come to an end but i'm enjoying it for now! A few lays today:

Wyong.
R7 N5 ATTEND

Sand.
R3 N8 SEFRAH

Ips.
R5 N4 MIXED DOZEN
R6 N9 INSTANT REWARD

North.
R6 N2 CAMPBELL'S CHARIOT

I won't be able to lay these myself today as i am out all day. I will be checking results intently though, and just for the purpose of this exercise i will assume Betfair lay prices are 10% higher than tote odds when i put down the results later.

[crash]

I once lost my laying bank after 10, yes 10 favourites won in a row overseas

U.S. U.K. Ireland - 3 meetings 10 in a row - a real nightmare.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I once did my proverbial one fine morning on US races.
14 favs & 3 second favs in 17 races.

Plus I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned the number of favs that won last Saturday. In my 30 odd years of racing I've never seen anything like it.

I'm very lucky Mark that my computer's OS need a desperate re-install last Saturday, because I never back favourites [except by mistake] and probably would have coped a hiding. I missed the day's racing completely.

[YoungBuck]

Wyong.
R7 N5 Attend: LOST, laid $10.4 @ 4.19

Sand.
R3 N8 Sefrah: LOST, laid $10.4 @ 3.53

Ips.
R5 N4 Mixed Dozen: LOST @ 11.70 (no bet)
R6 N9 Instant Reward: LOST @ 16.00 (no bet)

North.
R6 N2 Campbell's Chariot: LOST @ 9.00 (no bet)

Starting Bank: $1000
Today's Profit:$19.76
Overall Profit: $57.76
Bank: $1057.76
4-4: 100%

[Sportz]

Plus I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned the number of favs that won last Saturday. In my 30 odd years of racing I've never seen anything like it.

Yes, it was wonderful. :)

[YoungBuck]

Rand.
R4 N8 TINSLEY
R8 N9 YIANNINA

Moonee Valley.
R7 N17 FLYING LANGFUHR

Doom.
R2 N5 NEVADA GAMBLER
R4 N1 STEPPING

Morph.
R6 N4 MARIBEAU

[YoungBuck]

Go through the gear changes [most punters don't]. Any horse with any gear change is suspect, but if it has bar plates or a tail chain it has positively no hope and if the horse has glue-on shoes it's there for the scenery. I read somewhere that only 2 horses won last year with glue-on shoes fitted:-)
<table class="oddsLines" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr><td class="lt">BUGATTI ROYALE</td><td class="lt">$9.30</td><td class="lt">$3.60</td></tr></tbody> </table> Won at Sandown a few days ago with bar plates on!

Had been keeping tabs on the gear changes. You are right, about 90% of horses have lost with gear changes, problem being you usually have to lay them at ridiculous odds thereby not being profitable.

[crash]

Doom.
R2 N5 NEVADA GAMBLER


I'm backing that today [a smallish bet only] to knock off BTB. Who knows? At least the odds will be good.

I wonder if any brave souls are laying BTB or the Echo at Doomben today?

[YoungBuck]

I'm backing that today [a smallish bet only] to knock off BTB. Who knows? At least the odds will be good.

I wonder if any brave souls are laying BTB or the Echo at Doomben today?
Had my biggest win for the year last week backing Nevada. It is available @ 8.00 fixed odds IAS at the moment, so there is some decent value there i think. I don't lay at those odds anyway. Think i'll leave that one alone.

[YoungBuck]

Rand.
R4 N8 TINSLEY, scratched
R8 N9 YIANNINA, lost @ 40.00 no bet

Moonee Valley.
R7 N17 FLYING LANGFUHR, scratched

Doom.
R2 N5 NEVADA GAMBLER, lost @ 9.40 no bet
R4 N1 STEPPING, lost @ 4.50

Morph.
R6 N4 MARIBEAU, lost @ 4.00

Starting Bank: $1000
Today's Profit:$20
Overall Profit: $78
Bank: $1078
6-6: 100%

Seems to be working well at this very early stage, won't be posting any more results, good luck to anyone using this system in the future.

[crash]

You have been doing well Young buck. Keep your eye in and good luck to you !