PrePost

[Chrome Prince]

Just wondering if anyone has done any research on the most accurate prepost prices.

I'm aware of most of the available services, but was wondering if anyone had studied which was better (most accurate).

You can get a pretty accurate idea on the actual raceday, but how about the day prior?

[go4it]

G'day Chrome,

don't think you will ever find an "accurate" prepost market anywhere.I use the Courier Mail up here(near Cairns)on Friday but am only interested in horses on the first 5 lines pp as it is statistically proven that 80% of all winners come from this group,which you are no doubt aware of.As the bulk of my form study revolves around this group,I don't even consider prices till later.

Prepost prices must be provided by a bookie or some kind of pricing service I guess.

Just had a look at Doomben (PP)

R2 Maiden market set @ almost %140
R5 C5 %120

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks go4it,

I'm more looking for something that will tell me if a horse will be odds on or not.

;)

<pre>
So Canny $1.90
Chiming Mill $1.90
Empowered $1.70
Rainbow Spectre $1.70
Wild Target
Dance Hero $1.50
Exchequer $1.60
Team Heritage
Pentastic $1.80
Drumossie $1.90
Casino Knight $1.90
Rainbow Spectre
Hartleys Dream $1.90
My Leo $1.80
Reward
Black Mountain
Plastered $1.90
Ben Hur
Jovial $1.40
Danger Man
Wire Detonator
Grand Armee $1.80
Heavenly Business $1.60
Maizcay Magic $1.80
Perlin $1.70
Trubiscay
Rocking On $1.60
Mystery City
Another Clanger
Scenic Assault $1.90
Oahu $1.90
Zipping $1.80
The Gray Bear $1.60
Solitas $1.90
Posadas $1.60
Silk Wind $1.70
Zipping $1.80
Etcetera Etcetera
Gunfire Messiah $1.90
Crossing Jordan

</pre>

[Sportz]

What do you mean by accurate though, Chrome? Do you mean accurate as in getting close to the eventual finishing order OR do you mean accurate as in getting close to the eventual betting order?

I think a lot of newspapers probably use the odds from the Tabform site for most of their meetings, but perhaps produce their own prices for the local meeting. And I think some papers also use the Tab Sportsbet prices for feature races.

I think the prices that I get out of Friday's Courier Mail are generally pretty good for Saturday's races. They may not get the actual prices accurate, but most of the time the order is reasonably close. And I find that if you simply concentrate on the first 6 in the odds, you usually won't be too far away.

But I guess you can always get the morning prices from sport927 or Radiotab. They're usually pretty close to the mark.

[Chrome Prince]

Sportz,

I mean accurate to the TAB starting price.

I know you can't get accurate prepost due to firmers and drifters, but I'm looking for something that accurately predicts if a horse will be even money or less. Something I'd imagine would be pretty easy to be close enough to generate, as the weight of support should see a horse that fancied only drift or firm marginally.

I don't think I've seen an odds on horse drift or firm dramatically in a long time, except for a downpour :(

I'm looking at cutting way back on betting now, turning over significantly higher individual bet amounts with much less action.

I can't stand the frustration any longer :D

As someone mentioned elewhere, Shane Dye said he could make a living having one bet on the Cox Plate, as the class horse of the field usually wins.

Phar Lap
Sunline
Northerly
Might And Power
Tulloch
Octagonal
Kingston Town
Red Anchor
Bonecrusher
Saintly
Makybe Diva


Reads like a hall of fame list, the boy has problems riding, but not in judging horseflesh ;)

Nothing that drastic, but I anticipate between one and four bets a month.

[go4it]

Chrome,

Trust your instincts is all I can add.If you have a shortie prepost,use your own judgement as to whether it is justified to be that short and whether it will firm or drift.As prepost markets for Saturday's races would have to be framed on Thursday to meet printing deadlines,then adjusted again on Friday for the same reason,without any knowledge of final scratchings,track conditions,how could they ever be truly accurate,regardless of who supplies them?

Sportz,can't agree with you there.It's the first 5 lines of betting that win 80% of all races regardless of odds.If you look at it from an odds angle,that's a different set of stats that I don't know.Do you have any figures on % of winners of all races using your theory?

[Bhagwan]

I beleive the WA TAB pre-post market is quit often ,very close to final winning prices.
They use the form prices from GTX.

One way of converting paper price to possible final winning price , is to multiply the pre-post newspaper price by 0.90 this has shown to have an uncanny accuracy to final div. on many occasions ,if they happen to win.
e.g. $2.00 x 0.90 in the paper = $1.80 this often will be the final price result.
e.g. $3.00 x 0.90 = $2.70

On many occasions where the paper Fav, is showing much bigger prices on the TAB , just before jump , they seen to loose a lot.
e.g. $2.80 in paper $6.00 on TAB at jump time, they seem to fall over a lot

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Bhagwan,

I'll see how it goes.

[Merriguy]

Chrome,

Do you get Roger Biggs free service? The compilation of the seven services he puts together gives a very good guide to the final favourites he says.

[crash]

Ive been using the WA tab PP prices for about 5 yrs. daily as a price guide because the Melboune Age I have delivered only covers the local country meeting during the week.

The eventual SP price can be all over the shop and also very accurate [less 10 to 20% for SP is about the norm.], which is par for the course for most PP odds anywhere. $2.50 or less runners often start odds-on or close to evens and mostly don't drift.

I mainly punt on horses that are from 2nd. to 5th. favorite SP. Often these runners start favorite, even the 4th and 5th PP favorites [which annoys the hell out of me if I'm backing one of them !]. I've also had some of these runners blow out to longshot odds. One of them to $28 [it won too].

Until recently I had a data-base of all the PP odds for all the meetings covering about three years PP odds. Tragically, they are now lost to a puter crash.

I know, I know ....back-up, back-up !

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry to hear that crash, no good anyone telling you to back up after the fact. I know how devastating it can be and also learnt my lesson the hard way.

I had a boot partition virus 5 years ago before all the good antivirus and antispyware was installed and it wiped my entire drive.

Databases, spreadsheets, documents - 5 years hard work lost to infinity.

:(

[crash]

With computers I should know better, but I guess we lose everything eventually.