A system based on sound[?] basics.

[crash]

The sound basics according to starts are:
Most winners are 3 to 5yrs, most winning jockeys have 8% or better win SR are carrying 58k or less, are not 1st. up, last started within 21days and is jumping from barrier 9 or less.
Other than stats:
Good track because it's consistent and 1100m or more to allow for positioning and some minor slow away recovery. c,d or t to improve chances :-)



Max. 14 starters [after scratchings] on a good track only.
All distances 1100m or more.
Include all runners on the first three SP lines that comply with:
58kg or less
Have c,d or t
Has 1 or more starts from a spell
Has drawn barrier 9 or less
Then....
Rule out selections over 5yrs.
Rule out any runner with a Jockey win SR of less than 8% [racenet.com]
If more than 1 selection left, chose the one with the best jockey stats.
Finaly...
Check selections for gear changes and rule out any except for blinkers first time.


PP prices from WA tab.

Bendigo 12/9/06
r4/4 3x1 STAR ROSE c 2 D BRERETON[15.4%] 56.5 $6.00
r5/2 1226 JUST DON'T ASK dm 1 R CARTWRIGHT[7.1%] 57.5 $4.00 [no]
r5/3 2340 SALIENTE tm 6 M FLAHERTY[22.2%] 56.5 $5.00
r6/1 1112 SAME TONE dmb 2 C WILLIAMS [23.7%] 57.5 $2.25
r7/2 x160 REIGNING SHARK dm 3 MATTHEW GATT[3.3%] 57 $ 6.00 [no]
r8/8 3541 TERPARA d 4 N SOUQUET[0%] 56 $7.00 [no]
SUNSHINE COAST
r5/2 5381 SANSABA ta 4 MS A TAYLOR[12.4%] 56 $4.60
r5/5 6762 RISEUPSINGING tma 2 M MORRIS[8.3%] 54 $4.60
WYONG
r5/7 x256 VELVET STRIKE d 8 T JONES [5.3%] 53 $5.50 [No]
r7/3 3541 A LIST d 1 S MOSES [0%] 55 $4.00 [no]
r8/5 5975 CRUZADO ta 4 J PARR [6.1%] 55 $6.50 [no]
r8/6 4423 LARA'S WAY d 3 G BUCKLEY [2.4%] 55 $6.50 [no]

Bets:
Bendigo
r4/4 Star rose w3.10
r5/3 Saliente
r6/1 Same tone
Sunshine Coast
r5/2 Sansaba
r5/5 Riseuprising


------------------

[crash]

There should only be 1 selection for r5 at SC [r5/2]

[partypooper]

Crash is that good tracks only or "Good or better"?

[crash]

Hi party,

Good only I think, but for WA I'd add fast because it's not uncommon there.

It was a bit rough and ready today as initially I did the jockey thing [%] for the track. Then I discovered that the Sunshine Coast wasn't on the list so changed the methodology to jockey overall stats for the last 12mths. so there might be a few mistakes for this first up effort of getting the selections right.

I do like to whack a system up at inception. That way if it's a goodie it's there for those that take note. If it's tested for months and is profitable, well it might not make a thread. If it bombs out it's a learning experience.

Only 1 winner today with Same Tone just missing out. I'll be interested to see how it [the system] holds up.

Results for all mentioned runners:

Bendigo 12/9/06
r4/4 3x1 STAR ROSE c 2 D BRERETON[15.4%] 56.5 $6.00 [w 3.10
r5/2 1226 JUST DON'T ASK dm 1 R CARTWRIGHT[7.1%] 57.5 $4.00[no] unp
r5/3 2340 SALIENTE tm 6 M FLAHERTY[22.2%] 56.5 $5.00 [unp
r6/1 1112 SAME TONE dmb 2 C WILLIAMS [23.7%] 57.5 $2.25 [p1.59
r7/2 x160 REIGNING SHARK dm 3 MATTHEW GATT[3.3%] 57 $ 6.00 [no]p6.00
r8/8 3541 TERPARA d 4 N SOUQUET[0%] 56 $7.00 [no] p1.50
SUNSHINE COAST
r5/2 5381 SANSABA ta 4 MS A TAYLOR[12.4%] 56 $4.60 [unp
r5/5 6762 RISEUPSINGING tma 2 M MORRIS[8.3%] 54 $4.60 [unp
WYONG
r5/7 x256 VELVET STRIKE d 8 T JONES [5.3%] 53 $5.50 [No] p1.90
r7/3 3541 A LIST d 1 S MOSES [0%] 55 $4.00 [no] unp
r8/5 5975 CRUZADO ta 4 J PARR [6.1%] 55 $6.50 [no] w3.00
r8/6 4423 LARA'S WAY d 3 G BUCKLEY [2.4%] 55 $6.50 [no] unp.

--------------------------------------------

J. Parr's overall average is 16% so his winning mount should have been a selection. The 6.1% was a track %.
----------------

[crash]

If anyone really wants to nail the stats methodology down, ignore all runners except 4yr. olds.
I was blown away to find out when looking up jockey stats that their highest win SR [by a wide margin] was on 4yr. olds. Which means of course 4yr. old win the highest % of races by a country mile !
-------------

[Floydyboy]

Crash go here for jockey/trainer stats

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/

Select a meeting right hand side / then find stats left side of page

[crash]

Thanks for that floydboy. Now that meeting layout/info used to be what I got at AAP until they released their [useless for freebies] new site, or perhaps I'm having a 'peculiar moment' [?]

[crash]

Only 1 horse made it through the rules for Queanbeyan, so a bit of a rough lot racing there today I think.

QUEANBEYAN Friday, October 13
r8/4 Tarnyia
ROCKHAMPTON
r1/2 Fleet The Bongo
r4/3 Bunsen Honeydew
r5/2 Private Ascot
r6/2 Lazlo
r7/4 Radar Alert
TAREE
r2/1 Toronado
r7/3 Igotthelastone
r8/1 Thaumas
WANGARATTA
r5/4 Command Du Borg
r6/1 Phantom Tenor
r7/2 Lucky Petric
r9/6 Fermino Courage

Jockey win SR% based on better than 8% for last 3mths. Will be interesting to see how this system goes today and if it has any legs.

---------------------

[crash]

QUEANBEYAN Friday, October 13
r8/4 Tarnyia unp
ROCKHAMPTON
r1/2 Fleet The Bongo 3.40w 2.10p

Results:

r4/3 Bunsen Honeydew 2.80p
r5/2 Private Ascot unp
r6/2 Lazlo 8.90w 3.10p
r7/4 Radar Alert unp
TAREE
r2/1 Toronado unp
r7/3 Igotthelastone 2.00p
r8/1 Thaumas 2.00w 1.20p
WANGARATTA
r5/4 Command Du Borg unp
r6/1 Phantom Tenor unp
r7/2 Lucky Petric w3.50 p1.50
r9/6 Fermino Courage unp

outlay 12 units Return 17.8 Win Profit 5.8
I'm only really interested in the win bet but: place return 12.7

[wesmip1]

Going well.. Keep them coming crash.

[crash]

I just put this system up [made it up on the spot] to indicate the potential of success that messing around with some strong general stats. results, can often achieve some good results.

I wouldn't have a clue how it went yesterday as I was too busy to put the effort in.
I wasn't intending to put up a day by day tipping service, so the info is there to use or obviously tweak for anyone interested.

Cheers.