Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m)

[Chuck]

1 DELTA BLUES (Katsuhiko Sumii) 56
2 IMPERIAL STRIDE (Saeed bin Suroor) 55.5
3 RAILINGS (John Hawkes) 55.5
4 ROMAN ARCH (Robbie Laing) Noel Callow 55
5 OUR SMOKING JOE (Lee Freedman) Jim Cassidy 54.5
6 HEADTURNER (John Hawkes) 54
7 GRAND ZULU (Gwenda Markwell) 53.5
8 SHORT PAUSE (David Hayes) 53.5
9 TAWQEET (David Hayes) Dwayne Dunn 53.5
10 ACTIVATION (Graeme Rogerson) Michael Rodd 53
11 POP ROCK (Katusuhiko Sumii) Damien Oliver 53
12 SERENADE ROSE (Lee Freedman) Steven King 52.5
13 AQUA D'AMORE (Gai Waterhouse) Stephen Baster 52
14 DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 52
15 ICE CHARIOT (Ron Maund) Jim Byrne 52
16 TESTAFIABLE (Peter Moody) Luke Nolen 52
17 SPHENOPHYTA (Lee Freedman) Danny Nikolic 50
18 GROWL (David Hayes) Craig Williams 49
Emergencies
19 LAND 'N STARS (Jamie Poulton) 53
20 ZIPPING (Graeme Rogerson) Glen Boss 52.5
21 STORMHILL (Tim Martin) 51.5


I'm very annoyed about Zipping...have him in a couple of doubles and really wanted him to run

At this stage, I expect the winner to come from:
Railings
Imperial Stride
Pop Rock
Serenade Rose
Dizelle
Sphenophyta

[Horse Whisperer]

Ill take Railings, Pop Rock and Sphenophyta from your list chuck, and add Our Smoking Joe, Grand Zulu and Activation

[Sportz]

I'm very annoyed about Zipping...

Likewise. Fair dinkum, they really have to do something about the qualifying conditions. Every year we seem to have horses which have next to no chance getting in ahead of horses which have a very good chance. Zipping's form is FAR superior to numerous horses which were never in danger of missing out. I mean there's got to be something wrong when the 2nd emergency is equal 2nd favourite!!!

[Sportz]

Latest Tab Sportsbet odds:

SPHENOPHYTA $3.50
OUR SMOKING JOE $6.00
ZIPPING (2E) $6.00
GROWL $6.50
SERENADE ROSE $8.50
ACTIVATION $11.00
RAILINGS $13.00
TAWQEET $14.00
POP ROCK $17.00
HEADTURNER $18.00
GRAND ZULU $21.00
IMPERIAL STRIDE $21.00
AQUA DAMORE $26.00
DIZELLE $31.00
TESTAFIABLE $35.00
ICE CHARIOT $41.00
DELTA BLUES $61.00
LAND N STARS (1E) $61.00
ROMAN ARCH $101.00
STORMHILL (3E) $101.00
SHORT PAUSE $201.00

[Chuck]

how did grand zulu and testafiable get in the field? through which races?

[Sportz]

They didn't have to win any races, Chuck. I assume they got in purely on their handicapped weight compared to WFA, the same factor that kept Zipping out. At the moment, there are not nearly enough qualifying races involved. It is based far too much on the weight given to them by the handicapper, and that is mostly old form, not current form.

[Sportz]

Yep, just had a look and there were only 2 horses in the cup which won races to exempt them from the ballot - Growl and Sphenophyta. Apart from that, all of the other positions were decided by comparing their handicapped weight to WFA.

The two horses you mentioned, Grand Zulu and Testafiable are both 4.5 kgs below WFA, whereas Zipping is 6 kgs below WFA. If Sphenophyta had only finished 2nd in the Turnbull instead of winning it, he would have missed out altogether as he's 8 kgs below WFA. Same with Growl. If he hadn't won on Saturday he wouldn't have made the field either. He's 7.5 kgs below WFA.

As I said, far too much rests on the weight allotted to each horse by the handicapper and that is mostly based on old form. They need to allow many more qualifying races to allow the horses in the best form to get in the race.

[Horse Whisperer]

you could list half the field in the same boat as those two horses. SERENADE ROSE, RAILINGS, HEADTURNER, GRAND ZULU, AQUA DAMORE, DIZELLE, TESTAFIABLE, ICE CHARIOT & ROMAN ARCH. All have not lived up to the form they have previously produced, and you could make an arguement that Zipping should be in in front of them any day of the week.

[go4it]

Agree totally.It's an absolute joke when a horse that is carrying so much punters money and is so well in the market cannot get a run in front of at least 5 or 6 others which would appear to have no hope.

Would appear the MRC have lost their balls after the flak they copped over Taufans Melody incident years ago.

[brissy]

TAUFANS MELODY was thrown in because the connections were assured he was qualified. So, petrified of a lawsuit, the club let him start in front of a qualified aussie horse.
He then proceeded to flatten half the field and still retained the race.
One of the horses he turned sideways at abut the 200m mark was JEZZABEEL!

[Matilda]

Grand Zulu got thru the elimination by getting 3rd on Hill stakes and Testifiable got thru by winning the South Australian Derby. The best the Zipping has got was 1st on the Listed race as Hill stake is a G2 and the Derby is a G1.

My selection :
I will also take Railings, Pop Rock and Sphenophyta from Chuck's list and add in
10 ACTIVATION (Graeme Rogerson) Michael Rodd 53
13 AQUA D'AMORE (Gai Waterhouse) Stephen Baster 52
18 GROWL (David Hayes) Craig Williams 49

[Stix]

how did grand zulu and testafiable get in the field? through which races?Just on Grand Zulu, what are peoples thoughts? He'd shown fair form (at best) but his last run in Sydney (Natures Way Hill Stakes - 1.8 length Desert War) and his Yalumba Stakes (2.3 length 5th to Casula Pass) were more encouraging runs.

He has had a few issues with respitory problems and from recent reports these appear to be in the past. Currently $34 and $9.25 with IAS.

Might see if I can recoup my (apparently lost) outlay on Zipping http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif

Thanks

[Sportz]

Barrier Draw:

1 DELTA BLUES 17
2 IMPERIAL STRIDE 13
3 RAILINGS 7
4 ROMAN ARCH 10
5 OUR SMOKING JOE 2
6 HEADTURNER 18
7 GRAND ZULU 12
8 SHORT PAUSE 6
9 TAWQEET 3
10 ACTIVATION 5
11 POP ROCK 11
12 SERENADE ROSE 15
13 AQUA D'AMORE 4
14 DIZELLE 20
15 ICE CHARIOT 19
16 TESTAFIABLE 14
17 SPHENOPHYTA 8
18 GROWL 9
Emergencies
19 LAND 'N STARS 16
20 ZIPPING 21
21 STORMHILL 1

Not a good week for Zipping!!!

[Horse Whisperer]

hahahaha, seriously all you can do is laugh.

[Matilda]

IMPERIAL STRIDE might be out due to heat on the leg.
Good news for Zipping.

[Sportz]

Tab Sportsbet odds after the barrier draw:

SPHENOPHYTA $3.40
OUR SMOKING JOE $5.50
GROWL $6.00
ZIPPING (2E) $8.00
ACTIVATION $10.00
SERENADE ROSE $12.00
RAILINGS $13.00
TAWQEET $14.00
POP ROCK $17.00
GRAND ZULU $21.00
AQUA DAMORE $26.00
HEADTURNER $26.00
IMPERIAL STRIDE $26.00
DIZELLE $41.00
ICE CHARIOT $51.00
TESTAFIABLE $51.00
LAND N STARS (1E) $81.00
DELTA BLUES $101.00
ROMAN ARCH $101.00
STORMHILL (3E) $101.00
SHORT PAUSE $201.00

[Stix]

hahahaha, seriously all you can do is laugh.Directed at my post?

[Horse Whisperer]

Directed at my post?

No stix it was directed at Sportz. Just meaning that zipping has missed a start and then to rub salt into the wounds, even if it did gain a start the best barrier it could jump from is 19.

[Matilda]

How to jump from barrier 19 when there are 18 horses running?

Slight change from my selection :

Our Smoking Joe
Pop Rock
Sphenophyta
Activation
Aqua D'amore
Growl

[Sportz]

How to jump from barrier 19 when there are 18 horses running?


That's how bad things have got. If it gets a run, they're not even going to allow it to start from 18. They're making it start from the car park. ;)

[Horse Whisperer]

How to jump from barrier 19 when there are 18 horses running?
itll jump from barrier 19 coz thats what i had in my post godamnit :P haha oops

[Raw Instinct]

My top picks are fairly similar to everyone elses here it is hard to see a roughie winning this after the barrier draw.

Activation: My top pick even if it is by a very small margin all his runs this prep have been outstanding drawn beautifully here with a good jockey on board I think he was the better or Williams pair anyway personally.

Our Smoking Joe: Thrown in at the weights now he is drawn to get the absolute run of the race I actually think he might end up either 3 or 4 back on the fence if he gets clear running he will be extremely hard to hold out he is the one to beat.

Tawqeet: Loved his win in the Metrop he can settle in a handy sort of position and contrary to what those 2 Callendar idiots want to say he does have a nice turn of foot for a stayer and he should only be improved by his last run not sure if he is better than Activation at this trip though.

Railings: Last years winner owes me nothing after all those wins last spring and haven't laid a cent out on him this prep yet outside of a bet on the MC which I think will suit him more this year than this race will I think he is an outside chance here but he would need a red hot speed and a bit of luck.

Pop Rock: I respect the asian runners they have ability and they reckon this one is better than Eye Popper if that is the case it would be foolish to leave it out Oliver puts me off it a little never had any luck when he rides.

Ice Chariot: Reckon this bloke is the best roughie in the race the barrier hurts him alot but I expect to see a nice Melbourne Cup trial from this bloke his runs this prep have been pretty solid without being noticed by to many of the "experts"

I am staying away from both Sphenophyta and Growl here I think they may both struggle a little I might be wrong but I'll take my chance I question how strongly Sphenphyta runs out 2400m and just not sure this is the right prep for Growl another year maybe.

[Chuck]

those 2 Callendar idiots

jesus christ ken callender annoys me....i really dislike that guy...

[Chuck]

heres a pretty good review of the field i just saw on another forum

The field.....

1 DELTA BLUES (Katsuhiko Sumii) 56
Has the runs on the board in Japan, though his late 2005/early 2006 form isn't quite as impressive as late 2004 where he ran 3rd in the Japan Cup. He does have a 3rd to Deep Impact this year, but was beaten over 7 lengths. Reading between the lines the horse is both better suited in the Melbourne Cup and has a slight query over whether he can recapture the form of two years ago. Nevertheless a worthy starter who isn't out of it.

2 IMPERIAL STRIDE (Saeed bin Suroor) 55.5
Had he started in last years Cup he would have come in with about as impressive a formline as any Euro to have run at Caulfield. He had been very impressive going through the grades but had some trouble earlier this year with an injury. Nobody appears exactly sure how much effect this has had on him. His one run this year was against a field most British observers described as walkers and he narrowly got up to beat them. Going by the rating he received there he would need to have improved a heap with that run. Falls into the question mark category.

3 RAILINGS (John Hawkes) 55.5
Adds some meat to the race as we at least know he's a proven 2400 performer and rates fairly consistently over the past year. Has been solid if unspectacular this season and should be running on for some money at the business end again, albeit with the nagging concern he may actually be set more for Flemington this time around.

4 ROMAN ARCH (Robbie Laing) Noel Callow 55
Not racing in the best of form, pretty much like he was before winning the Australian Cup in March. Gets to play the "likeable old warhorse" role for this years Cup, and while he has the proven class to win should wander around unplaced, much like I said Natural Blitz would last year (Yes I know he ran 4th)

5 OUR SMOKING JOE (Lee Freedman) Jim Cassidy 54.5
Auditioned for the "likeable old warhorse" role that Roman Arch won and reported to be majorly p****** at missing out (look for a sly kick or two around at the start). Brings consistent spring form into this and seems to be running around the same level as last season, where that level got him some good wins and placings around this distance range. Couldn't actually have him to win myself but likely to be not far away and will obviously appreciate any showers.

6 HEADTURNER (John Hawkes) 54
Winner of a true shocker of an AJC Derby and didn't do anything in the Turnbull to suggest he's up to winning this. His runs last season would suggest the step up to 2400 is an assist, and he is drifting out to an almost tempting price but generally in the Cups it's not a great idea to back horses without any recent placed form (Makybe in 2003 excepted) and his run looked much like Plastered's going into last years Cup, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him put in a similar one paced finish just behind the placegetters.

7 GRAND ZULU (Gwenda Markwell) 53.5
Solid enough last week in what seemed an unsuitable race. Hard to assess whether he is actually near that 2004 form but he is at least a proven 2400 horse and could win at his best.

8 SHORT PAUSE (David Hayes) 53.5
Has some decent Euro form, the problem is it was a long time ago and his current form is rubbish. If the field was selected on recent form he wouldn't be near a start, so I assume he'll start 200-1 and go around at the same one pace he has shown to date in Aussie. At his best would have been a worthwhile starter.

9 TAWQEET (David Hayes) Dwayne Dunn 53.5
Conversely has added to his sound European form with consistently improved runs in recent months. Is a horse I've been impressed with both in reading his British form and in the races I've seen in Aussie. I noted with his Metrop win the commonly expressed opinion that he had the best run and should actually have won easier, however the horse isn't really the type who is going to explode to a 3 length victory even after a soft trip. Definite chance with the race run to suit, and even if not he'll be running on better than most, though obviously he has the Melbourne Cup as his goal so the connections would be less disappointed than most with a late finishing 4th/5th.

10 ACTIVATION (Graeme Rogerson) Michael Rodd 53
Has become one of the talk horses of the field after his Metrop 2nd, though I do wonder if that flattered him slightly as I thought it was probably a race he was suited to having had plenty of recent racing in Sydney and with a strong pace on up front. No doubting his raw ability, and he at least seems to be showing it more consistently these days, but I rate him just outside my top three.

11 POP ROCK (Katusuhiko Sumii) Damien Oliver 53
Comes into this with the impressive career formline of 14336331-689-3331111. That sounds very Eye Popper-ish, which is notable as nearly every media report about this horse has mentioned his last start win over Eye Popper in a G2 2500 in May, with 3.5 lengths back to third. Personally I thought the more interesting formline was the win three starts back where he beat Machikaneumajirusi. I wouldn't have a clue how strong that race was but I'm wondering if various Aussie commentators had a whip around to send that horses's connections a few bucks to stay at home. Back to the more flowingly named Pop Rock, while he doesn't have G1 form in Japan his form through the grades looks very good and he reads more like a Caulfield Cup horse than a Melbourne Cup horse to me. His four wins in a row have all been from 2200 to 2500 and by margins of 5 lengths, 1 length, 6 lengths and a neck over Eye Popper. The field sizes have been 16-16-12-17 which is also a nice bonus factor, because contrastingly when a horse comes from Europe often it's been racing in smaller fields. Now I won't claim to have much ability to line up Japanese and Australian form, I don't think many people can, but the horse appears to have done everything right to date and at the expected odds I'll most likely be backing him.

12 SERENADE ROSE (Lee Freedman) Steven King 52.5
A nice diplomatic person would write one of these previews and say lovely things about all the horses. Being as diplomatic as I can and avoiding the urge to compare SR with previous floppy Oaks winners, I'll simply say she beat two weak Oaks fields and is too short here. I know she didn't have clear runs in at least two of the four starts this prep, but I don't consider her any better at 2400 than 2000 and she couldn't win against many of these in the Turnbull after having a nice run. Here she meets horses who are better suited at 2400 than they were there so I'm laying her.

13 AQUA D'AMORE (Gai Waterhouse) Stephen Baster 52
Ran a sound race in the Turnbull without ever really threatening to win. Proven at the trip and against reasonable opposition but there is also the slight feeling that her performance level is already well enough known and she might need not be able to improve the length or two required to win here. Good enough to win if the race went her way, but not good enough that I'd want to back her.

14 DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 52
Ran on in the Metrop, much as she had done in her AJC Oaks win over the same course and distance. The difference is she actually had stayers in front of her in the Metrop. Even if she runs on as usual here it will most likely be too slowly and the horses in front of her won't be as thoroughly stuffed as those she ran past in the Oaks. Should be 100-1.

15 ICE CHARIOT (Ron Maund) Jim Byrne 52
Went an improved race in the Craven Plate when the pace was against him. I still can't go past the fact that he was so well ridden in his Queensland Derby win that if he was going to win a Caulfield Cup he would have put them away by about 4 lengths in that race over the same distance on his favourite course. A rough chance but couldn't back him.

16 TESTAFIABLE (Peter Moody) Luke Nolen 52
Similar to Ice Chariot he found the line well enough in the Craven, but he'd had a softer trip and it rated as ok without making you want to run out and back him given the difference in class here. Strong runs in both Derbies he contested this year suggest he can actually go a decent 2400, but this may be a couple of lengths too hard for him.

[Chuck]

17 SPHENOPHYTA (Lee Freedman) Danny Nikolic 50
Classy stayer who has motored through the ranks this year. Had to do it tough in the Turnbull holding them off all the way up the long straight. That was a improvement on a similar situation in the Caloundra Cup a few months back, where he was leading 100 out but couldn't quite hold out Empyreal's finish. The difference is he seems to have learnt to settle now, which is crucial to his chances at 2400 as the Caloundra defeat showed-he simply didn't have anything left after pulling in the run. With that in mind I think he's a must include, though the $4 is pretty short. He doesn't look quite as foolproof as Elvstroem did two years ago after winning the Turnbull and starting at a similar quote here, but this field rates slightly weaker in my opinion.

*pointless trivia*
Sphenophyta won his maiden at his 3rd start at Te Rapa on February 11th, beating The Silence Sir, oddly enough the last horse to beat Bikkie Tin Blues in Brisbane. Of the 10 races that day, 9 have had at least one placegetter go on to win or place at G1 level since, including amongst others Gee I Jane, Darci Brahma, Pentane, Zarius, Kerry O'Reilly and Three Chimneys.

18 GROWL (David Hayes) Craig Williams 49
Not a horse I'd seen before his win over Maybe Better three starts back, though I had heard the name a few weeks earlier when going Mike Tyson on the cat because she wouldn't let go of a bird. His form certainly stacks up if you take a line through the third in the Naturalism behind Zipping and just ahead of Tawqeet, suggesting he wouldn't have been out of place in either the Turnbull or Metrop given those horse's performances. Last week he had the good run but still had to beat one of the better Winning Edge fields of recent years and I thought he did it well enough to suggest he's a strong chance here. The obvious doubt is whether it's one start too far for a horse on a long first prep and backing up, but many of his rivals have bigger question marks than that.

Emergencies
19 LAND 'N STARS (Jamie Poulton) 53
Seems better off in the Melbourne Cup and would probably be outpaced if he got a start.

20 ZIPPING (Graeme Rogerson) Glen Boss 52.5
Would obviously be a huge chance if he got a run as his performances this spring have been excellent and he was mowing them down late in the Turnbull.

21 STORMHILL (Tim Martin) 51.5
Did nothing last start and hard to have.


It's a nice enough mix overall, but as always with question marks on some of the runners. The topweights have form that reads well but whether either of them is at their peak is very hard to assess. The older brigade like Railings and Our Smoking Joe are reliable and proven at this level. The obvious area where the race lacks something is in the 4yos (to SH-time), with the Derby/Oaks form unproven and looking slightly dubious, and Growl seeming the best chance from that age group. Sphenophyta and Tawqeet are both quality stayers and now at the peak form of their careers, though it is a shame for the race that Zipping didn't make the field as his Turnbull effort was the run of the race outside the winner. Obviously he hadn't earned a place in the field with no Group race placings, but it's still slightly disappointing from a quality standpoint to see a horse like Short Pause who looks past his best getting a run instead.

[crash]

Punters quickly forget Ice Chariot is a back-marker and his last 2 big wins in QLD were both from the barrier he has now, the extreme outside -where he can keep out of any trouble and set up an ideal chance of winning with only a postage stamp to carry.

Barrier 18 might be the death nell for most of these runners but for Ice Chariot, it's a perfect draw. He will be able to sit back and go to sleep until the home turn. As an e/w chance he is well over his true odds. It's a bit sad the way that Lynch has lost the ride to Bryne.

For the odds on offer, Imperial Stride might be a bit of value as a side bet.

[crash]

Imperial Stride pulled up lame after a track gallop at Sandown this morning, so it looks like a scratching there and a spot for Zipping I think.

[Sportz]

I don't think so. He needs 2 scratchings.

[Raw Instinct]

I have heard that it is also likely that Land'N'Stars will not run and will go to the Geelong Cup instead which kind of makes you wonder why you would pay the acceptance fee in the first place.

If Imperial Stride is out then I would have a feeling that Zipping will get a run.

[Chuck]

crash - are you sure imperial stride is out? is it just for the caulfield cup or the cox plate and melb cup as well?

[Sportz]

I don't think he's out, he's just 'in doubt'.

[go4it]

Ice Chariot could't win if it started now(sorry crash).

It will still be asleep in about 10th spot when the winner crosses the line.

It beat nothing in it's QLD. wins,same as Sphenophyta,which won't win either.

I've got the winner,but I aint' tellin' ya!!

Well maybe I will on Saturday mornin'.

[crash]

At least I've put up a selection....... :)

Just remember go4it, you read Ice Chariot as a tip here first [and to win the QLD Derby over this distance carrying 5kg. extra weight].

[umrum]

Ice Chariot isnt the silliest tip I've heard. Cartainly has been improving at each run and if the pace is on can be one coming late. i doubt it can beat headturner though.

[ijuandaQLD]

wheres the speed in the race going to come from i dont think there looks to be that much. i think Our Smoking Joe is a great chance and im hoping for a little bit of wet weather

[Matilda]

OSJ will be favourite tomorrow.

[maverick1993]

OSJ will be favourite tomorrow.

I think your right Matilda,,,i'm on at 5.50 as i gambled on the rain coming,,,either way i dont think he'll be much more than that tomorrow.

[Chuck]

i'm on activation now...

[Sportz]

Testafiable is a scratching. Now, if we can only get one more. :o

[umrum]

Imperial strid eis out too sportz

[Raw Instinct]

Zipping is in if they want it nw but from reports they maynot run anyway god knows what the deal is there unless Lloyd doesn't want to run his 2 guns against each other here.

[Chuck]

yep, zipping has a start! :D:D:D

[maverick1993]

I think your right Matilda,,,i'm on at 5.50 as i gambled on the rain coming,,,either way i dont think he'll be much more than that tomorrow.

6.00 now on sportsbet,,,,,that'll learn me :(

[Horse Whisperer]

Well its in now, if it doesnt win then i guess everyone will be left to scratch there heads wondering what all the fuss was about. Im still on OSJ surprise surprise :)

[Matilda]

I am hoping for some rain as well tomorrow.

I am taking a risk at 5/3,10,11,13,18,20/3,10,11,13,18,20.

Only 15 for half a units.

Good luck Master Mav.

[maverick1993]

Master Mav ?? lol....heard the expression "putting the Mocker on" Matilda ?

like your tri Matilda....i'd have in Headturner (value) and Sheno to be somwhere around the placings though.

[Chrome Prince]

Nobody tipping Growl or Serenade Rose?

Interesting all the hype around the others - CC always throws a suprise ;) and then suddenly we have a reshuffled MC market, the likes of which would never have been imagined.

[Matilda]

What the hell is J.Cassidy doing with OSJ leading!!!!!@#$%^&*(

Activation for Melbourne Cup

[Horse Whisperer]

atilda: Somehow i doubt the caulfield cup was the main priority for the horse. A good run was probably all they wanted to see, and after leading all the way, was finishing off well, got a slight check 75m from the line from Tawqeet and still stuck in for a close defeat. If it gets a sit in its next race itll be a much better chance, and in the race hes been aimed at all along.

I though Grand Zulu had a good run to. was sticking on well when it got squeezed between two horses at about the 250. But definitely is one run short in the prep. Maybe there is a good race in it still.