El Segundo v Racing To Win

[go4it]

Interesting to note all the so called(albeit self endowed)experts have now sacked El Segundo on his run at Caulfield.Also interesting that Richard Freedman & co. reckon RTW is the best horse in OZ.
What a load of crap.What has he beaten?Has he raced the opposite direction?Has he won over 2000 mtrs?Has he had any experience on the tricky Moonee Valley circuit?Lohnro couldn't win there,and at this stage of his racing career,I would not put him in Lohnro's class(yet).
ES has shown a liking for the MV 2000 trip,and IMO was not primed enough at Caulfield.It will be a different story come Cox Plate.
Wherever they finish,IMO ES will be ahead of RTW.
Feel free to bag me.
Especially all you one eyed cockroaches.
P.S.
Don't forget John O'Shea is a QLD'er.
Just wish they would take Gauci off.

[Wunfluova]

and IMO was not primed enough at Caulfield
I tend to agree with this statement. After his defeat I went looking for possible reasons and found it interesting to compare his preparations this year and last.

2005

14/8 Flemington 1200
28/8 Werribee 1410
10/9 M Valley 1600
23/9 M Valley 2040
8/10 Caulfield 2000 (Yalumba)

2006

12/8 Flemington 1200
2/9 Caulfield 1400
23/9 Caulfield 1800
14/10 Caulfield 2000 (Yalumba)

Last year he had four runs prior to the Yalumba with the backup time for each race between 13-15 days.

This year he has only had three runs prior to the Yalumba and each was off a three week backup. I think I read/heard somewhere that his preparation this year was supposedly better because it was less rushed but I am wondering if indeed the horse has attained the same fitness levels as last year, given the (apparently) lighter preparation.

This is pure speculation of course and the truth may simply be that the horse had an off day.

wunfluova

[Chrome Prince]

How I love these "match" races - neither of them will win ;)

[go4it]

Wunfluova,

I think this was the game plan all along,trying to read between the lines that is.

3 weeks between runs,had a soft workout on the Tuesday before the Yalumba.

Never lose focus that the Cox Plate has always been the cherry this prep,and he will be ready for all comers on that day.

Still think he would have been competitive in the CC had they chosen that path.

Just wish Ollie or Boss or Beadman were on him,Gauci seems to be lacking so much confidence these days.

[crash]

El Segundo last run:

Someone suggested to have a look at the video of his last run because the suggestion was the horse lost interest in the race on the turn [started to run wide and look around from there]. He clearly lost interest in the race on the turn. Fitness wasn't an issue.

I think we will see blinkers in the cox plate and nothing will beat him.

[stugots]

looks like a race that could be pinched, so might just back whatever c williams is on, probably foo at this stage?

[Chrome Prince]

FOO is my bet too.

Proven to handle the track distance and class, the only query is fitness.

[Chrome Prince]

I'll bet my bottom dollar if he doesn't win he runs a place, and will probably be better place value than ES or RTW for the win.

This is a horse which was only beaten 1.5lengths last Saturday in a G1 event.

Age shall not weary them ;)

His record in the Cox Plate

Beaten 6.9L behind Northerly
Won beating Lonhro
2nd to Savabeel (1 length)
3rd to Makybe Diva (1.4 lengths)

1 win and 2 placings from 4 starts in a Cox Plate.

[stugots]

Foo could not win if it started now.Too old,simple as that.


your opinion, im sure uve been wrong before & will be again, now as for myself.....:)

[go4it]

Stugouts and Chrome,
No offence intended with my comment about FOO.
I didn't mean it to sound dismissive to your opinions,and yes,I have been wrong many times before,and no doubt will be again!
I just don't think he can do it again .For your sake,I hope I'm wrong,for my sake,I hope I'm right!

[goldmember]

I have been backing both ES and RTW and i would definately back ES infront of RTW, think he will win but he is no certainty, broke 46 for the last 800, died on his run the last 100m and only got beat 1/2 hd x 1 L

[crash]

Stewth! ...Hope your feeling better now that's out of your system go4it.

[go4it]

Yeah,

sorry mate.Just got out of hospital a few days ago,didn't mean to take it out on you like that.Sincere apologies for my errant behaviour.

P.S.

Just did my ratings/handicapping for the CC and your tip came up 3rd pick,which surprised me somewhat.

In case your'e interested,my ratings were...

Growl

Zipping

Ice Chariot

Serenade Rose

Tawqueet

I didn't rate the entire field,in the CC I only back 3,4 & 5Y.O

In the MC I only rate & back 4,5 & 6Y.O.

I sure miss some winners,but also get rid of some no hopers.

[Dale]

Chrome prince is one of my favorite posters on here but i think he is off the mark with fields of omagh,the horse is simply too old and not as good as it was.

Racing to win will kick a much improved el segundo's head in in the plate!

I'm not a fan of the El Segundo's form it doesnt seem to be holding up and Racing to win looks like a champion in the making,take the short odds it will in.

Go4it, i like your way of restricting bets by age but persoanly do it by race starts,have you ever thought about how many times your horse has started in a race compared to its age,i find it it a much simplier way to weed out the old leg weary no hopers.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks for the kind words Dale.

Often I'm more wrong than right, unfortunately.

But speaking of old timers, I reckon Grey Song is ready to run a place next start and FOO will at least figure in the finish of the Cox Plate.

Of course, my major achilles heel, is not giving the up and comers enough credit and often come undone. I guess I just like proven horses, but I'm living in the past as always ;)

I'm still looking in the formguides for Super Impose :D

[Dale]

Grey Song LMFAO!

Love youre work Chrome.

[Chuck]

i think all that the caulfield cup proved (which i had suspected earlier) was that the Turnbull form is rubbish, and the Underwood could be the guide. if it was down to ES v RTW then i think ES will come out on top

[go4it]

Couldn't agree more Chuck.

[Moderator 3]

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Slanging matches are not permitted on this forum. It takes two to have a slanging match ....

Moderator.

[jorgo]

Im abit of a whiz when it comes to the plate. Racing to win from aqua damore and appache cat or something

[stugots]

Im abit of a whiz when it comes to the plate. Racing to win from aqua damore and appache cat or something

something called foo me thinks

[stugots]

looks like a race that could be pinched, so might just back whatever c williams is on, probably foo at this stage?


COMEON BOYS, ME & CROME ARE AWAITING YOUR ACOLADES!!!

[crash]

Well done boys!

What a great day for Williams and Hayes. All the talk of RTW proved to be no more than hype and Miss Finland is still making her way to the finish line and holding up the next race:-)

[Mancunian]

Congratulations CP and Stugots

you are a pair of geniuses (genii ?)

I was on El Segundo and was confident that he had it all the way from about 800 metres out.

I still don't think I'll consider 9 y-o s when I'm looking at potential winners this really is a one-off freak.

[dc]

All i can sayy is Glenn Boss.... needs to settle down!! the cocky **************... not this time!

[Chrome Prince]

Congratulations CP and Stugots

you are a pair of geniuses (genii ?)

I was on El Segundo and was confident that he had it all the way from about 800 metres out.

I still don't think I'll consider 9 y-o s when I'm looking at potential winners this really is a one-off freak.

Thanks Mancunian.

I agree with you, this was a one off and I don't run around looking for old horses to back, the old winners are few and far between really. I just liked him from his record in this race, given there was nothing else proven at the Valley in this class.

[crash]

All thing considered, the 'class' of the race was a shocker [except for the winner].

[Spartacus]

Well done to FOO but David Raphael gets my thumbs down. "That's one photo I'm happy to get wrong" but I'm sure thousands out there in tv land would disagree and I thought I had the trifecta.

Crash, you're a bit harsh on El Segundo's class. He's been beaten by a bee's proverbial and switch the jocks and the result may have been totally different.

Unfortunately for my kick it was El Segundo by name El Segundo by nature.

Not one of Bossy's best rides IMO. Should have got him some cover and went way too early.

[stugots]

i suspect crash may be on the right track, before the race the field "looked" a well balanced cox plate field.

after the race? one must question the true quality of most runners under that sort of pressure as there were a few shockers, including the caller, im sure im not the only one who knew he had it wrong going past the post.

i always have liked foo, but a dual cox plate winner as a 9yold!? im sure i will never fail to be suprised by this game.

[go4it]

Well done Chrome & stugs,

BUT it cost me a $15k result!!!

Anyone else bar D.Gauci on board and it may have been a different result.

But what an old warhorse.Should nickname him Webcke!!

[goldmember]

ES would'nt have run a drum if Boss was on top , the bloke is off his game, in the CC he rode Zipping like Dye rode Veandercross, then in the Cox RTW was gone when they ran out of the the straight the 1st time, think he should stop reding the papers about himself, is he riding Egomanic this weekend ? :D dd'int back FOO this time, did when he won his 1st won, thought the race was too tough,but when the track was upgraded to good thought ES was a special to run a hole and had a few hundered a place , the $2.20 was nice.

[maccamax]

back last start winners within 21 days up to 16/1........has a great melbourne cup profit record