Group 1 TATTERSALL'S Cox Plate (2040m)

[Sporty]

1 ACTIVATION (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 58
2 BENTLEY BISCUIT Gai Waterhouse 58
3 CARGO CULT Colin & Cindy Alderson 58
4 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton 58
5 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little 58
6 FIELDS OF OMAGH David Hayes 58
7 GRAND ZULU Gwenda Markwell 58
8 GREY SWALLOW (IRE) Dale Sutton 58
9 HONOR IN WAR (USA) Paul McGee 58
10 IMPERIAL STRIDE (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 58
11 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted 58
12 MOLOTOV Jim Conlan 58
13 OUR SMOKING JOE Lee Freedman 58
14 POLAR BEAR (GB) David Hayes 58
15 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing 58
16 SUPER KID (NZ) David Hayes 58
17 TEMPLE HILLS (NZ) Peter G Moody 58
18 UNDUE Shane Clarke 58
19 ZIPPING Graeme Rogerson 58
20 APACHE CAT Greg Eurell 56.5
21 DARCI BRAHMA (NZ) Mark Walker 56.5
22 MAYBE BETTER Brian Mayfield-Smith 56.5
23 POMPEII RULER Mick Price 56.5
24 PRIMUS John O'Shea 56.5
25 RACING TO WIN John O'Shea 56.5
26 RED DAZZLER Mick Price 56.5
27 AQUA D'AMORE Gai Waterhouse 55.5
28 MNEMOSYNE John Hawkes 54
29 REWAAYA (NZ) David Hayes 54
30 SEACHANGE (NZ) Ralph Manning 54
31 CHURCHILL DOWNS David Hayes 48.5
32 DANEVER David Hayes 48.5
33 EXCITES Paul Perry 48.5
34 HE'S NO PIE EATER Graeme Rogerson 48.5
35 ANAMATO David Hayes 46
36 MISS FINLAND David Hayes 46

[Sporty]

RACING TO WIN 3.00 1.50
EL SEGUNDO 3.30 1.57
GREY SWALLOW 9.00 3.00
LAD OF THE MANOR 11.00 3.50
MISS FINLAND 13.00 4.00
POMPEII RULER 13.00 4.00
RED DAZZLER 15.00 4.50
FIELDS OF OMAGH 21.00 6.00
OUR SMOKING JOE 21.00 6.00
APACHE CAT 26.00 7.25
CASUAL PASS 26.00 7.25
ZIPPING 26.00 7.25
REWAAYA 35.00 9.50
EXCITES 51.00 13.50
PRIMUS 51.00 13.50
SEACHANGE 51.00 13.50
SUPER KID 51.00 13.50
IMPERIAL STRIDE 71.00 18.50
UNDUE 71.00 18.50
AQUA DAMORE 81.00 21.00
BENTLEY BISCUIT 101.00 26.00
CHURCHILL DOWNS 101.00 26.00
DARCI BRAHMA 101.00 26.00
HONOR IN WAR 101.00 26.00
MNEMOSYNE 101.00 26.00
POLAR BEAR 101.00 26.00
ACTIVATION 151.00 38.50
ANAMATO 151.00 38.50
GRAND ZULU 151.00 38.50
ROMAN ARCH 151.00 38.50
CARGO CULT 201.00 51.00
DANEVER 201.00 51.00
MAYBE BETTER 201.00 51.00
MOLOTOV 201.00 51.00
TEMPLE HILLS 201.00 51.00
HES NO PIE EATER 301.00 76.00

[Sporty]

36 runners remain! At this point in time main hopes look to be:

Racing To Win
Miss Finland
Casual Pass
Red Dazzler
Excites
Churchill Downs
Grey Swallow
El Segundo
Lad Of The Manor
Pompeii Ruler
and a real bolter - He's No Pie Eater

This batch will no doubt decrease in number once final acceptors are declared.

[wildtom]

One thing for sure, Damien Oliver won't have a ride in the Cox!
Will serve a suspension from after Saturday’s Caulfield Cup meeting returning to the saddle on VRC Derby Day!

[grey sapphire]

I've no doubt the current fav Racing The Win will get the distance but handling the other way of going and Moonee Valley are 2 big question marks for me!

[woody]

For connections sake hope Zipping gets a run in the Caulfield Cup. As the betting suggests MUCH better chance in that than in this.

[AdriamnT]

Surprised El Segundo is so short, most disappointing for mine last start.

[slowseriousstab]

Surprised El Segundo is so short, most disappointing for mine last start.


Agree 100%

[Raw Instinct]

Well I have been on Apache Cat for along time now for this race and with the appointment of one G Childs for this race I am very happy now there would have been only 2 jockeys I would have been happier to see on him Kerrin McEvoy or Brett Prebble so I guess you could say that I have a fairly high opinion of Childs.

if Excites gets into the field he might be a rough chance to and the other I like is Grey Swallow he could simply be alot better than this lot I wouldn't leave him out of anything your doing for the race. The only negative I have heard against Grey Swallow is that he will be 1st up into this race and noone has ever one a Cox Plate 1st up before well guess what guys no mare had won 2 cups in a row and no horse had won 3 cups in a row, History is there to be changed and records are made to be broken.

[go4it]

You guys that are dismissing El Segundo do so at your own peril.

I'm not going into logistics because although it was expected to win easily in the Yalumba,the run WAS NOT as bad as you guys apparently see it.

I had a good bet on it in July @ $11/3.40

I,m more than happy with that,and if you guys who are surprised it's so "short"would like to make me an offer,I'll back it again with you.

Did you ever stop to think WHY it is still well in the market?

My surprise is about Racing to Win being so short.It has never raced in Melb. let alone the tricky MV circuit.It has not won beyond 1600mtrs.

How anyone with half a brain could believe all the media hype around this horse and back it ay such ridiculous odds is beyond me.

El Segundo will win this race.

My only query is the import,Grey Swallow.

Make no mistake,this is a proven quality animal who has been set for this race for some time.They must have faith in his ability to put him into a Cox Playe first up!

[catweazle]

Miss Finland a spesh!

[mv2040]

El Segundo WILL NOT get past racing to win! Trainer has screwed him this prep IMO.

[Horse Mad]

Shaping up to be one of the weakest Cox Plates I've seen for a while so I'll be having my lunch money on Fields of Omagh - winner this race 2003 & placed 2004 & 2005.

[AdriamnT]

My main investment for this race so far is the import Grey Swallow.
I agree with another poster that this years race appears to be a bit below par quality wise. If Grey Swallow can capture his northern hemisphere form he should be a little too classy for them. My only doubt is that he has not raced since June!

[Storm_Scene]

who will hayes get to ride miss finland? who can ride at 46kg? I read in the paper that he asked stephen baster but he cant make the weight...and craig said he will need a hacksaw...anyone have any ideas?

[Horse Whisperer]

i was told this morning it was some female kiwi jockey

[Storm_Scene]

i was told this morning it was some female kiwi jockey
Is it linda cropp??

[Horse Whisperer]

lisa cropp yes.

oh and ill be backing both rtw (which i have already backed so cant get out of that one) and grey swallow, which i think is going to be the value runner on the day.

[Storm_Scene]

yeah i think ill be having something on grey swallow and miss finland especially with her light weight...i rekon its gunna be a pretty good cox plate this year.

[Happychap]

Lisa Cropp will give Miss Finland every chance, very good jockey ;)
Expect she will race on pace given it's Moonee Valley and the light weight 46kg.

[StaggerLee]

yeah i think ill be having something on grey swallow and miss finland especially with her light weight...i rekon its gunna be a pretty good cox plate this year.


im not convinced miss finland will run out the journey strongly enough to get into the money

[go4it]

Spot on Staggerlee.

Bolted 2 starts ago & just fell in last time.

IMO not seasoned enough to be competitive against ES & RTW.

If she was mine she'd be going to the paddock for a rest now.

[Tubby]

I agree. She's barely running out a strong 1600m now. How they think she can compete against the top horses over 2040 (even with a featherweight) is beyond me. Time for a rest and perhaps aim for next year's plate.

[Cheda]

..just been announced that CC runner-up Aqua D'’Amore will back-up in Saturday’s Cox..have to be a genuine chance on Saturdays effort!

[mv2040]

If Savabeel can win a Cox plate anything can!

[Storm_Scene]

If Savabeel can win a Cox plate anything can!
you hit the nail right on the head there mv!

[Real Deal]

OSJ to be ridden by D. Beadman. Certain Starter as just reported on TVN!

[Storm_Scene]

will OSJ be able to back up? im not too sure if he can...

[Raw Instinct]

Any speculation on the field here guys this is the way I thought it might shape up in no particular order really.

1. El Segundo
2. Racing to Win
3. Fields of Omagh
4. Grey Swallow
5. Honor in War
6. Casual Pass
7. Miss Finland
8. Pompeii Ruler
9. Lad of the Manor
10. Red Dazzler
11. Apache Cat
12. Aqua D'Amore
13. Super Kid (Darci Brahma might be an outside chance aswell as Seachange not sure here)

I think they will use the maximum field not sure if that is 13 or 14 anymore shame they didn't decide to go to this race with Excites not 100% certain he would have gotten into the field but he would be a far better chance of running a good 2000m than Miss Finland in my persoanl opinion.

[Chuck]

Lad of the Manor and El Segundo for me at the moment.

I don't know much about the two overseas horses, can anyone shed some light there?

[Raw Instinct]

I can also confirm that Our Smoking Joe is in the Cox Plate not sure he has the turn of foot to win this race he just seems to lack that little bit in the big races I personally felt he had every single chance to win on the weekend can't see him winning this either after that.

with this in mind I would drop Super Kid from my original selections and promote Joe to the runners.

[go4it]

Bensley announced the field for the CP on Sky racing news yesterday arvo,can't remember but fairly sure he said there was only 12 runners.
Pocket wise I want ES to win as I backed it in July @ $11w $3 pl,then again @$6w/$2pl.
Savabeel was an exception to the rule ,the best horse usually wins the Cox aided by a good ride by a good jockey.

[maverick1993]

Bensley announced the field for the CP on Sky racing news yesterday arvo,can't remember but fairly sure he said there was only 12 runners.
Pocket wise I want ES to win as I backed it in July @ $11w $3 pl,then again @$6w/$2pl.
Savabeel was an exception to the rule ,the best horse usually wins the Cox aided by a good ride by a good jockey.


I got the same odds Go4it ,,,my only early bet for the majors this spring...I was alittle worried about ES after last run but he looked fantastic around Mv the other day.
I'm thinking of backing the Lad aswell...hes another that just loves the surface..
Grey Swallow is interesting,,though he seems to hang around the corners alittle....looks to be coming along nicely.

[Cheda]

Bensley announced the field for the CP on Sky racing news yesterday arvo,can't remember but fairly sure he said there was only 12 runners.
Pocket wise I want ES to win as I backed it in July @ $11w $3 pl,then again @$6w/$2pl.
Savabeel was an exception to the rule ,the best horse usually wins the Cox aided by a good ride by a good jockey.


Had Savabeel clearly (rated) on top in 2004. Made a bundle. No doubts in my mind that the best horse won that year!

[AdriamnT]

Darren Beadman to ride Our Smoking Joe
Kieren Fallon to ride Aqua D'Amore

[AdriamnT]

TAB Horse Jockey Barrier Weight
1 Casual Pass N Rawiller 11 58
2 Fields Of Omagh C Williams 7 58
3 Grey Swallow S King 1 58
4 El Segundo D Gauci 10 58
5 Lad Of The Manor D Nikolic 2 58
6 Honor In War S Arnold 13 58
7 Our Smoking Joe D Beadman 5 58
8 Racing To Win G Boss 6 56.5`
9 Apache Cat G Childs 3 56.5
10 Red Dazzler J Cassidy 3 56.5
11 Pompeii Ruler C Newitt 9 56.5
12 Aqua D’Amore K Fallon 8 56.5
13 Miss Finland L Cropp 4 46

[Stix]

Had Savabeel clearly (rated) on top in 2004. Made a bundle. No doubts in my mind that the best horse won that year!Who you got this year? :cool:

[Chuck Bar Lena]

TAB Horse Jockey Barrier Weight
1 Casual Pass N Rawiller 11 58
2 Fields Of Omagh C Williams 7 58
3 Grey Swallow S King 1 58
4 El Segundo D Gauci 10 58
5 Lad Of The Manor D Nikolic 2 58
6 Honor In War S Arnold 13 58
7 Our Smoking Joe D Beadman 5 58
8 Racing To Win G Boss 6 56.5`
9 Apache Cat G Childs 3 56.5
10 Red Dazzler J Cassidy 3 56.5
11 Pompeii Ruler C Newitt 9 56.5
12 Aqua D’Amore K Fallon 8 56.5
13 Miss Finland L Cropp 4 46


Horse Win Place
EL SEGUNDO $3.50 $1.55
RACING TO WIN $3.50 $1.55
GREY SWALLOW $9.00 $2.77
MISS FINLAND $10.00 $3.00
LAD OF THE MANOR $13.00 $3.66
POMPEII RULER $13.00 $3.66
RED DAZZLER $17.00 $4.55
FIELDS OF OMAGH $21.00 $5.44
OUR SMOKING JOE $21.00 $5.44
APACHE CAT $26.00 $6.55
AQUA DAMORE $26.00 $6.55
CASUAL PASS $26.00 $6.55
HONOR IN WAR $101.00 $23.22

[AdriamnT]

Horse Win Place
EL SEGUNDO $3.50 $1.55
RACING TO WIN $3.50 $1.55
GREY SWALLOW $9.00 $2.77
MISS FINLAND $10.00 $3.00
LAD OF THE MANOR $13.00 $3.66
POMPEII RULER $13.00 $3.66
RED DAZZLER $17.00 $4.55
FIELDS OF OMAGH $21.00 $5.44
OUR SMOKING JOE $21.00 $5.44
APACHE CAT $26.00 $6.55
AQUA DAMORE $26.00 $6.55
CASUAL PASS $26.00 $6.55
HONOR IN WAR $101.00 $23.22

Looks to be plenty of value outside the top 2!

[go4it]

Cheda,

What did Savabeel do after the Cox?

It was a fluke win and trhen they started raving how it was worth 10 million,I don't recall it ever winning another race!!

Good luck to you getting it when you did.

IMO this year it's

1) El Segundo

2)Racing to Win

3)Grey Swallow

4)Fields of Omagh

[collingwood]

Chuck

Don't know much about Grey Swallow but i have bought a share through the Aussie Syndicate in Honor In War. Aim was to run in the Cox Plate but is set for the Emirates. Has trained the house down and Danny O'Brien and Stephen Arnold are rapt - the lastest email to owners was that there is an air of confidence that it will run well. At 100/1 it is way overs. Has only missed prizemoney 4-5 times in its 36 race career. $100k for 8th sounds good to me.

Barrier 13 not an issue as it was to settle at the back anyway. Some of the leaders drawing wide a bonus as there is likely to be pace on early. Each way all day.

After Enirates will race in Hong Kong in December and come back in the Autumn after which it will go to stud in Aust.

I was looking forward to my first Cox Plate - now as an owner i am besides myself.

Good luck to all.

[Stix]

Chuck

Don't know much about Grey Swallow but i have bought a share through the Aussie Syndicate in Honor In War. Aim was to run in the Cox Plate but is set for the Emirates. Has trained the house down and Danny O'Brien and Stephen Arnold are rapt - the lastest email to owners was that there is an air of confidence that it will run well. At 100/1 it is way overs. Has only missed prizemoney 4-5 times in its 36 race career. $100k for 8th sounds good to me.

Barrier 13 not an issue as it was to settle at the back anyway. Some of the leaders drawing wide a bonus as there is likely to be pace on early. Each way all day.

After Enirates will race in Hong Kong in December and come back in the Autumn after which it will go to stud in Aust.

I was looking forward to my first Cox Plate - now as an owner i am besides myself.

Good luck to all.Good Luck Collingwood, had a mate who had a share (6%) of Sphenopyta and he could not sit down last week he was so excited..... hope this week goes quickly for you and HIW goes a few places better ! :cool:

[Raw Instinct]

Congrats Collingwood hope he runs well for you been hearing he is training exceptionally well don't know if this means they really feel it is a winning chance in this race or not but at the odds he might be worth something e/w anyway.

[collingwood]

Thanks Stix & Raw

The feedback is that O'Brien would be disappointed if HIW did not run in the first 6 - especially with how the draw has gone for some of the leaders.

The aim however is the Emirates and they are confident that it will go close in that. I personally feel the drop back to 1600 from 2000 may be a problem but that hasn't been a concern to the trainer or the other owners.

Fingers crossed.

[Ozgunner]

8-Racing To Win
13-Miss Finland
12-Aqua D'Amore
7-Our Smoking Joe
2-Fields Of Omagh

[Real Deal]

El Segundo
Aqua Damore
Fields Of Omagh
Red Dazzler
Racing to Win.

I will be boxing these 5 for all exotics. Given another pick if i had the cash i would throw in Miss Finland.

[go4it]

saved money there RD(with Miss F)I mean.

[Horse Whisperer]

RACING TO WIN
OUR SMOKING JOE
EL SEGUNDO
POMPEII RULER/CASUAL PASS

[Chuck]

El Segundo
Lad of the Manor

[Dale]

Racing To Win for me,it will beat the Australians at least.

This thing has heart,if it gets in a ****** fight its all over.

I'm imagining a Bonecrusher -Our Waverly Star type of war,just not sure who is going to fill the Our Waverly Star role,probably ES but could be the Swallow.

[Dale]

The word describing a member of the canine family gets filtered,thats a classic.

[glenn101]

My main investment for this race so far is the import Grey Swallow.
I agree with another poster that this years race appears to be a bit below par quality wise. If Grey Swallow can capture his northern hemisphere form he should be a little too classy for them. My only doubt is that he has not raced since June!

Read somewhere that Grey Swallow has performed very well (over distance) "first-up" in tha past.

[Raw Instinct]

my main bet so far is on Apache Cat but drawing the wide gate might have really cost him his chance one thing is for sure he will get every chance with Childs on board.

I also had a little e/w bet on Honor in War at the $71 being offered 2 nights ago just thought that was amazing odds.

As far as race day goes I will back someone else no idea who yet this is a tough race and any of them can win this call it an average field if you like but they are very close I feel especially if they run this along a bit.

[Matilda]

Miss Finland and Pompeii Ruler quinella.

[mjr]

What odds D Gauci announcing his retirement if he flukes the Cox Plate on ES.Personally I think it is no hope as Gauci is riding like a 10kg apprentice at the moment.

But you never know your luck in a big city.

Go Racing To Win

Comments???

[crash]

Al Segundo and Grey Swallow for the boxed exacta [GS to win?]

[dc]

so many queries in this plate... i reckon luck will aid in this.

selections:
1. MISS FINLAND:46kg! for this freak horse. But the jockey im edgy about..
2. RACING TO WIN: on form
3. AQUA D`AMORE huge run last start and Gai usually suprises...

i Reckon EL SEGUNDO, GREY SWALLOW, CASUAL PASS, APACHE CAT will all flop bigtime and not even make it in the top 3...

No suprises if FIELDS OF OMAGH , RED DAZZLER, LAD OF THE MANOR, go close....

Wouldnt put the house on it though... i dont have a good strike rate lately...

[Chuck]

still with:

Lad of the Manor
El Segundo

seems david moodie agrees :eek:

[boxhead]

G'day all,
El Segundo with blinkers.
Racing To Win and Miss Finland are the real deal but, one run too many?
THE REST IS HYPE IMO

[xptdriver]

I also had a little e/w bet on Honor in War at the $71 being offered 2 nights ago just thought that was amazing odds.



I wish you well... but I think even those odds are skinny... I only have form for its last 5 starts... and in its last 2 G1 races it has been beaten a sum of 12 lengths.. 8th out of 10 ad 6th out of 8...

Good luck with it tho

[Chuck Bar Lena]

Current Market

EL SEGUNDO 3.50 1.55
RACING TO WIN 3.50 1.55
GREY SWALLOW 9.00 2.77
MISS FINLAND 10.00 3.00
LAD OF THE MANOR 13.00 3.66
POMPEII RULER 15.00 4.11
RED DAZZLER 18.00 4.77
FIELDS OF OMAGH 21.00 5.44
OUR SMOKING JOE 21.00 5.44
AQUA DAMORE 26.00 6.55
CASUAL PASS 26.00 6.55
APACHE CAT 31.00 7.66
HONOR IN WAR 35.00 8.55

[Chuck Bar Lena]

As the market suggest EL Segundo the one to beat.

Racing To Win won't be suited MV but has improved so much this campaign that he should be a big danger.

Miss Finland with her featherweight must rate a mention.

Outside these 3 the rest of the field look pretty even.
Lad Of The Manor luvs the valley & should give a great sight e/w.

[crash]

I wouldn't be wiping Lad Of The Manor out of this. Only beaten once from 6 starts at the Valley [by Makybe Deva last year] and last start was tightened for room and checked in the running.
4 starts in now [needs that for a 7yr. old], so will be at peek fitness tomorrow as will Casual Pass with 5 runs in from a spell, likes the track and with 4 wins from 6 over this distance, can't be ignored. From b11 Casual Pass should head across and join the other 2 leaders in this, Apache Cat and Our Smoking Joe.

Grey Swallow recently changed hands for $6m and has won 5 from 5 first up around this distance [and more], so a bit hard to handicap here for MV . Had a couple of unsuitable runs because the horse likes the pace on [races on the pace] according to the trainer and will have that here for sure. From b1 can settle just off the 3 leaders and then should make it's usual drawing away run that might be just too hard to catch.

Adjusted times makes Honor in War [USA] a VERY quick horse over this distance and the O'Brien/Arnold combo is something to be wary of.
So a big question mark over the Yankee as with Miss Finland and RTW who have never raced beyond 1600m. Apache Cat tried it last start [beyond 1600m] and did no good.

El Segundo will come from behind, has the runs on the board for the track and distance and I'm ignoring his last run. My main pick here, but there are unknown values in this race [except the poor odds that will be on offer for El Segundo] that can't be really be handicapped. I'll be betting on the 2 value OS horses to win and having a couple of exotics.

Good luck to all on Sat.

[Chuck Bar Lena]

As the market suggest EL Segundo the one to beat.

Racing To Win won't be suited MV but has improved so much this campaign that he should be a big danger.

Miss Finland with her featherweight must rate a mention.

Outside these 3 the rest of the field look pretty even.
Lad Of The Manor luvs the valley & should give a great sight e/w.

Add Grey Swallow. Looking at his O/S form have to have a saver.

[crash]

Winning the tough [2 big up-hills in it] ********** Derby certainly puts Grey Swallow in this as the Cox is a [truly run] tough WFA race for tough horses [only], with MV having it's own up-hill to the finish. If the same horse comes out tomorrow that came out for the Derby, it'll will win by lengths [paraphrasing Lee Freedman's comments about the horse].

Miss Finland as a 3yr old is trying to do something only done once before 30yrs. ago. Carrying 46k [with a half-starved kiwi lass on board] won't make the horse go any faster than carrying 50 -55kg. Linda Cropp is a great NZ jockey but she is in unfamiliar territory here riding against Australia's best jockeys on their home turf on a quirky track. She also has had to lose 3kg for this.

The way I see it, It'll all be in the running and who gets the right breaks at the right time from about 5 serious contenders: Casual Pass, Grey Swallow, El Segundo, Lad of the Manor or Pompeii Ruler.

[crash]

I.R.I.S.H is a banned word ?

[Chrome Prince]

Nobody tipping Aqua D'amore nor Fields Of Omagh?

Here's what I sent to a mate earlier....

I'm looking at Fields Of Omagh as an eachway bet for the Cox Plate myself, as although he is old, he is sound, and the only horse in the race that's proven at the Valley in the Class. His last run was just behind them, so I think he's fit enough.

Miss Finland will probably try tear away tactics again to try and win, but I think she'll be swamped.

Racing To Win and El Segundo should be making their runs around the same time as Fields Of Omagh, I think they might find the turn at the Valley hard.

I do not think Grey Swallow can win first up in this class at a track he's never raced on. It takes a very classy but fit horse to win a Cox Plate.

I also think El Segundo poor value at the odds quoted.

In summary for the Cox Plate, I think the value lies here:

Racing To Win
Fields Of Omagh
Aqua D'Amore

Glen Boss is the master at Group 1 level and he has a very good horse under him.

Craig Williams is riding Fields of Omagh for the Hayes camp and they've opted to put Lisa Cropp on Miss Finland because of weight. Although Craig Williams botches a few rides, he will be desperate to win this.

Kieren Fallon, the champion English jockey is on Aqua D'Amore, this horse keeps on surprising at good odds, and also keeps on improving.

For what it's worth ;)

P.S. At this point I'd be prepared to stick my neck out and say both Miss Finland and El Segundo won't run a place.

[crash]

I'd agree Chrome about Miss Finland not placing. A gut buster last start and the one before when she bolted and certainly has gone past her peak this prep. And your right too about Aqua D' amore [I should have made that 6 serious contenders in my post above].
The Turnbull was a good run and has a 2 1/2kg advantage in this. RTW won't find this a sit and sprint and is a big question mark at the distance in this tough affair and deserves far better odds.

I wouldn't worry about Grey Swallow being first up though. Delta Blues [Jap. trainer] carrying top weight didn't do a bad job 'first up' last week and almost stole the Caulfield Cup !

As for 'class', Demott Weld described Grey Swallow as one of the best horses he has ever trained and Lee Freedman rates the horse as in the worlds top 5 [Melb. Age today] and the horse to beat that handles any condt. or tracks.

Field of Omagh though has the same problem as Miss Finland ...History. One horse being too young and the other too old. FOO is now 9yrs. old and trying to win the Cox Plate. Sure he has a chance and is a tough horse, but I don't think he is over the odds the bookies have on him around 15/1.

Miracles do happen though and either horse might win [or anything else in the race too] !

[Horse Whisperer]

RACING TO WIN
OUR SMOKING JOE
EL SEGUNDO
POMPEII RULER/CASUAL PASS

Amended selections
Grey Swallow
Racing to Win
Our Smoking Joe
Pompeii Ruler
Boxed Tri for $.5

[Stix]

<TABLE id=transactions><TBODY><TR class=evenrow><TD class=time>24Oct06 3:43:05 PM</TD><TD class=id>AAA100D36D-18928899

RACES
</TD><TD class=selection>HONOR IN WAR

MOONEE VALLEY Race 7
</TD><TD class=stake>50.00</TD><TD class=odds>IFX PrePost Win @ 71.000</TD><TD class=money>AUD -50.00</TD><TD class=info>U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=time>24Oct06 3:43:04 PM</TD><TD class=id>3AA108C32C-18928898

RACES
</TD><TD class=selection>HONOR IN WAR

MOONEE VALLEY Race 7
</TD><TD class=stake>50.00</TD><TD class=odds>IAS-SP Place</TD><TD class=money>AUD -50.00</TD><TD class=info>U</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Personally.... I'm leaning towards the later.... http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/redface.gif

[Chrome Prince]

As for 'class', Demott Weld described Grey Swallow as one of the best horses he has ever trained and Lee Freedman rates the horse as in the worlds top 5 [Melb. Age today] and the horse to beat that handles any condt. or tracks.

Miracles do happen though and either horse might win [or anything else in the race too] !

Didn't they say that about Vinnie Rowe?

Your second point is the one that always has me interested in this game, the unbelievable does happen, and more often the unthinkable ;)

As for stats, you know I love 'em, but I think when comparing past winners of "a race" they have to go out the window to some extent.

Should be an great spectacle whatever the outcome, I'm really looking forward to this year for some reason, it has a lot of different elements which will duly unfold.

[crash]

I certainly won't be leaving FOO out of my trifecta. He has been trained JUST for this race this prep. and will peak tomorrow for sure. If he can pull this off as a 9yr. old ... what a horse!

Gotta love this comment [you know from where] :-)

-Chaff Bandits Day Out-
"Have a look at the Cox Plate day fields tomorrow at Moonee Valley and you’d need a glue factory train to take the slow ones away".

Concerning one race:

''.......The race is so bad you should watch out the corner of your eye for the ambulance, or the Clerk of the Course’s 20-year-old grey to fly home and run a place. Surely to God they can get a better bunch of bandits than that, when $300,000 is up for grabs". :-))

[Horse Whisperer]

IMO what is going to make this yrs cox plate a great race is the fact that you could argue a point for any horse in the field. There is no standout certainty. Last yr you had to ask which of these horses could beat the diva, and going through the form and the race list you couldnt have come up with many. Im really looking forward to this race tomorrow, there might not be an out and out champion jumping from the gates at 3.30, but i bet there will be as whichever horse crosses the line first.

[Chrome Prince]

I'll be ecstatic if he pulls a placing, which I think he can. If he wins, I'll be off on holidays for a while :D

[crash]

How about this one:

"On the Cox Plate I find it amazing how some people actually believe that Miss Finland can win. I give her no hope of winning as per my recent article of 19/10/06 entitled “Miss Finland wouldn’t win a Cox Plate if she started now”. How so may supposedly learned people can read her so wrongly is beyond belief. They all said what a great win it was the other day in the Thousand Guineas. What a lot of rot, because except for a short half head, she’d have a 100% success rate at failure in three tries at 1600 metres. She cannot run 1600 metres this filly, so how the hell can she run 2040 metres against all age horses? Now let me ask all the experts who are tipping her one question. She beat Permaiscuous by one inch the other day and she got run down over 1600 by She Will Be Loved the start before and before that she beat stablemate Anamato a neck in the Tranquil Star Stakes. Now would anyone fancy backing any of Permaiscuous, She Will Be Loved or Anamato to win a Cox Plate? No, even the mob at Nimbin don’t get that high during a normal day"!

[Chrome Prince]

IMO what is going to make this yrs cox plate a great race is the fact that you could argue a point for any horse in the field. There is no standout certainty. Last yr you had to ask which of these horses could beat the diva, and going through the form and the race list you couldnt have come up with many. Im really looking forward to this race tomorrow, there might not be an out and out champion jumping from the gates at 3.30, but i bet there will be as whichever horse crosses the line first.

I'm with you Horse Whisperer, it has the excitement element of anticipation.

As for champion, Racing To Win hasn't done much wrong, Miss Finland has come up the year after winning the big one, which is quite rare, and El Segundo has been proved vulnerable. I lean towards RTW as the future standout.

If Miss Finland pulls it off, she will amaze me beyond belief.

[crash]

"AQUA D’AMORE
Enigmatic mare who can look like Phar Lap or Radish. Last week and the start before she looked like Phar Lap, so tomorrow by the law of averages she’ll probably look like Radish".

[Chrome Prince]

How about this one:

"On the Cox Plate I find it amazing how some people actually believe that Miss Finland can win. I give her no hope of winning as per my recent article of 19/10/06 entitled “Miss Finland wouldn’t win a Cox Plate if she started now”. How so may supposedly learned people can read her so wrongly is beyond belief. They all said what a great win it was the other day in the Thousand Guineas. What a lot of rot, because except for a short half head, she’d have a 100% success rate at failure in three tries at 1600 metres. She cannot run 1600 metres this filly, so how the hell can she run 2040 metres against all age horses? Now let me ask all the experts who are tipping her one question. She beat Permaiscuous by one inch the other day and she got run down over 1600 by She Will Be Loved the start before and before that she beat stablemate Anamato a neck in the Tranquil Star Stakes. Now would anyone fancy backing any of Permaiscuous, She Will Be Loved or Anamato to win a Cox Plate? No, even the mob at Nimbin don’t get that high during a normal day"!

G'day again crash,

Not saying I disagree with the author, but I think his argument does have some flawed logic.

1. A short half head makes all the difference, ask the jockey of any champion horse, especially the likes of Octagonal or Northerly.

2. She's won at 1600m, does that mean she can't run out 2040m?
We don't know, I doubt it too, but we don't know.
She can run 1600m - she won!

3. Leave the folks at Nimbim out of this, I think the authors been picking mushrooms :D
It doesn't matter what ran second to her, it's not what she beat - it's what ran behind her - there's an important difference in terminology and assessment. What matters is the class and distance of the race.

But I still don't think she will run a place, just pointing out some weird logic.

Added: What does worry me is that she's never raced at the Valley for starters.
Also she had two tries at 1600m and won one of them as a 3yo, and lost by less than a length as a 2yo filly. The other 1600m trip was actually 1610m and she was beaten less than a length - 10m = ???

So three starts at 1600m (if ya like), and not ran worse than 0.8L of a length from the winner. To say she can't run 1600m is ridiculous. :P

[crash]

I'm not going into bat for the Author.
His arguments are often full of holes [I remember him bagging 5 horses in 5 races at Bris. one day and 4 of them won and the 5th. just missed by a nose!]. Personally. I think when it comes to picking winners he is as bad [worse] as the rest of us. The guy is a good read though.

I just like the banter.
His Letter of Apology from the Prime Minister of Aust. to the NZ Prime Minister for bringing Linda Cropp over here to ride Miss Finland is a bottler and worth reading [click on his link] !

[Chrome Prince]

LOL :D I love it!

[puntersteve]

Shaping up to be one of the weakest Cox Plates I've seen for a while so I'll be having my lunch money on Fields of Omagh - winner this race 2003 & placed 2004 & 2005.

Tackling his fifth consecutive Cox Plate! Amazing!

[AdriamnT]

Moonee Valley R7 H3 Grey Swallow H4 El Segundo H8 Racing To Win H5 Lad Of The Manor H13 Miss Finland

[Raw Instinct]

Well here we go the start of what should be an amazing days racing you just have to love this time of the year and although alot of people seem to think this is a weak Cox Plate but to be honest I don't think it is that bad of a race there just isn't that champion in the race well not yet anyway.

1. Apache Cat: He is my top pick I might be talking through my pocket a bit here but I honestly feel this horse can run the trip he had no luck at all last start was 3 wide all the way with no cover then copped 2 checks in the straight to only be beaten 2.5 lengths I thought he ran a bottler of a race.

2. Lad of the Manor: Hard to pass this bloke up on this track and I would by no means deny him his day of glory should he win it, he drawn to get a nice run just a matter of whether or not he can avoid the trouble he ran into last year if he does then he just might get there.

3. El Segundo: Very good horse however he does give me a little bit of a Lonhro feel about him he just might be to brilliant to win a race like this god knows it has bought more than just the odd good horse down on the big day.

4. Pompeii Ruler: I had no thought of including this guy until the last couple of days he is a real powerful striding horse and if he gets across to a decent sort of a position then I reckon he is a real chance to win this whether it might be a year to early for him I amnot sure.

5. Grey Swallow: Hard to leave him out of my selections you just do not know how good this bloke is he could just blow them all away and if you were thinking about saving on something it might be worth a little bet anyway especially after the barrier draw.

I am taking on Racing to Win here could bite me in the ass but I don't like the way he has been hanging in his races it is going to cost him eventually and in a race like this nothing would surprise me, All I can say now is good luck with your tips guys should be a cracker of a race anyway.

[Sahasastar]

Cox Plate.

Racing To Win/Pompeii Ruler
Casual Pass/Fields Of Omagh/Lad Of The Manor.

Good luck.. can't wait.

[collingwood]

Our horse Honor In War scratched!!

"The horse arrived in Australia and the blood swabs revealed 30 parts per million trace of the injection. This is within normal limits for the time zone. To race the elevation must not exceed 15 parts per million. The swab results today revealed 18 parts per million (Still 3 parts per million over the threshold).Despite the low level breach and the fact that the race was still 24 hours away Stewards were acting under instruction of the Racing Victoria veterinarian that factually at the time of the pre-race swab the horse was positive to a banned substance and no guarantee could be given that the horse would be beneath 15 parts per million by 8:00 am Saturday morning (Official Scratching Time) and there was no independent laboratory open that could process this swab in the limited time zones.There will be no ongoing issues with the blood swabs as at the current rate the horse will be cleared by this Sunday"

Damn it - got to Friday and allowed myself to think nothing could go wrong now. Will run next week in the McKinnon or the following week in the Emirates.

[Raw Instinct]

Bad luck mate very unlucky to miss a run this way.

[TobinBronze]

(8) Racing To Win won’t mind the dead track & will run out distance based on his superb 1600 form.

(2) Fields Of Omagh’s old legs will appreciate the sting out of the ground & is my value bet for the race.

[Storm_Scene]

Not sure if Pompeii Ruler is starting it has been sick all week and the vet wasnt sure if it will be right for today...I hope it starts, it has a pretty good chance.

[TobinBronze]

Not sure if Pompeii Ruler is starting it has been sick all week and the vet wasnt sure if it will be right for today...I hope it starts, it has a pretty good chance.

Not scratched at official scratching time ;)

[Storm_Scene]

Not scratched at official scratching time ;)
thank-god...the vet must have worked a miricle, it was pretty sick.

[watsonnek]

thank-god...the vet must have worked a miricle, it was pretty sick.

Still a bit of a worry if it hasn't been well.....

[racingnovice]

Should be a good race today. Im putting my hard earned on miss finland i don't think she has shown her best yet and she has a massive weight advantage look for her to be flying home :) also like casual pass for an outsider.

[go4it]

El Segundo is a xxx

Forget the rest.

This is the race he has been set for all along.

A lot of the others were just an after thought.

Greed.

RTW wont blow wind up his clacker when he steams past them at the 400.

[Spartacus]

I'm new to the forum and can't believe there's even more hard core race nuts than myself. I sit down with the paper at work and all the teachers around me must think I'm some desperate punting loser (maybe it's that and the fact I've got half the school in a punter's club they don't want to be involved in)

As for the Plate I agree with most. ES to blouse them but it's hard to fault RTW's form. I'm hoping RTW won't win because I wanted to back Private Steer in the Plate a couple of years back before she went amiss.
I've been waiting to back ES for a while now and won't drop off him on one bad run. The speed on today will suit too.

I think I'll go a trifecta with
El Segundo/Racing to Win
from
Casual Pass
Lad of the Manor
Pompeii Ruler

Although I rate them I think I'll risk FOO, Grey Swallow and Miss Finland (She might me the 5th runner up)

[CrazyHorse]

Bracket RACING TO WIN / EL SEGUNDO
From MISS FINLAND / LAD OF THE MANOR / FIELDS OF OMAGH

[bwuce]

E/W Our Smoking Joe Casual Pass

[SunsetCoast]

Boxed Tri

(3) Grey Swallow
(8) Racing To Win
(4) El Segundo
(13) Miss Finland
(1) Casual Pass


(1) Casual Pass EW

[Sportz]

Well, that'll do me. He only seems to be able to perform to his very best in one race each year. But that one race just happens to be the Cox Plate. :eek:

[SunsetCoast]

Shaping up to be one of the weakest Cox Plates I've seen for a while so I'll be having my lunch money on Fields of Omagh - winner this race 2003 & placed 2004 & 2005.


Hope you normally eat an expensive lunch Horse Mad! Did no good myself :(

[crash]

[QUOTE=crash]I certainly won't be leaving FOO out of my trifecta. He has been trained JUST for this race this prep. and will peak tomorrow for sure. If he can pull this off as a 9yr. old ... what a horse![QUOTE=crash]

All hail the mighty FOO !!!!

I missed on my win bet but collected on the tri with a 3x6x6. Better than nothing I guess :-o

[Chrome Prince]

I'll be ecstatic if he pulls a placing, which I think he can. If he wins, I'll be off on holidays for a while :D

Well, I've gotta go somewhere now. ;)

What a great horse, what a great ride, what a great race.

[crash]

History in the making !!!

[TobinBronze]

(8) Racing To Win won’t mind the dead track & will run out distance based on his superb 1600 form.

(2) Fields Of Omagh’s old legs will appreciate the sting out of the ground & is my value bet for the race.


just the 2 bets, cleaned up big time! a fitting end to a great career!!

[Raw Instinct]

I had 3 bets in the end backing Apache Cat who pulled it's head off again Lad of the Manor who was quite simply absolute ********e and Pompeii Ruler who I thought had it won just died on his run the last 50m

[catweazle]

just the 2 bets, cleaned up big time! a fitting end to a great career!!


i assume u mean FOO & not uself TobinBronze :)

[Chuck]

hmmm, had:

El Segundo,LOTM / El Segundo,LOTM,FOO,Pompeii Ruler/ El Segundo,LOTM,FOO,Pompeii Ruler

trifecta cost $12.00 and thought i had it on the line :(

[watsonnek]

i assume u mean FOO & not uself TobinBronze :)

lol
Could be both of them! ;)

[Spartacus]

Chuck,

I had $25 on ES and almost same tri:

ES into FOO,PR,LOTM,RTW,CASUAL PASS,

LOTM a ****** when inside horses. i should've ruled him out with the barrier
Nash should have went forward.

ES to be back bigger and better next year. Unfortunately for him so to will Haradasun.