Arbitrages

[Crackone]

Here are some arbs for you , I would take them myself but cann't have my money tied up for that long.

Ashes series
Aus to win 5-0 (Betezy 9.00 Ias 8.00 Sportingbet 7.50)

Betfair asking price 7.8 $119 8.0 $453 8.2 $2470 8.4 $512

Aus to win 4-0 (sportingbet 7.0)

Betfair 6.4 $27 6.6 $549

cheers

[jfc]

Those of you trying to learn more about Betfair should look at the mystifying prices available for the Ashes Series Score.

It is easy to estimate the odds for England 5-0 as ~50,000.

So why is that absurd proposition currently layable at only 400!

[AssumeTheCrown]

Classic case of conditional probability. IF England do win the 1st test then their odds of winning the 2nd test will be shorter than 8.5 you would assume. And IF they won the 2nd test then the odds would be shorter again and so on. It is very hard to estimate a true probability of an exact series score but i would guess an England 5-0 result as about 4000 to 1 which in laymens terms would seem like gross unders! Theres no doubt those wanting to back England at 400/1 have more money than sense. I predict Australia to win 3-1.