Belmont (Perth) - Sat 31 August 02

[Sandgroper]

Selections based on Sandgroper ratings for a dead or better track.

Race 1 – A few 1st starters with OK trial form. Watch for any betting moves.

Of the raced brigade, rated top pick is no. 2 Stormy’s Son, danger no. 6 Brazilian.

Also include no. 5 Uncle Brian – not rated (only start was at provincials). Watched the race, ran a close 2nd to city winner / placegetter. Unlucky in running, big run!

Race 2 no. 4 Universal Warrior, danger no. 9 Lombo Choice
Race 3 no. 8 She’s A Rose, danger no. 4 Hide The Halo
Race 4 no. 6 The Tin Man, dangers no. 1 Corporate Bruce & no. 10 White Foil
Race 5 no. 5 Bold Mirage, danger no. 8 Ohio
Race 6 no. 3 Metallurgy, danger no. 2 Golden Delicious
Race 7 no. 6 Anchor The Stars, danger no. 1 Key Flyer

Race 8 – What a race! Literally have rated 9 of 14 horses within one length of each other, with the remaining 5 not much further back. Good luck Big Orange!

Selecting no. 9 Yoplay, danger no. 12 Kiwi Hombre


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-08-30 21:28 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Hey Perth Placegetter, you've not included Son of Vasac in the last, I think it's got a very good chance!

[Sandgroper]

Paddy, have rated Son Of Vasac equal top pick with a few others. Did not include in my post as I believe race 8 is very open & SOV likely to start short odds. As it turns out SOV is listed as 6/4 fav this morning. Can certainly win, and would at least put him in your multiples. If you like him back him, but do hope you can get better odds than 6/4.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-08-31 09:58 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Track dead, all selections starting. Watch on track condition, more rain forecasted. Good luck everyone.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-08-31 10:11 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Hey Perth Placegetter, track is now slow at Belmont.

[topsy99]

interesting you didn't rate kentiara
i had her 3.4 lengths ahead of zero on level weights basis.(minus)
golden delicious was 0.38 lengths behind zero. (plus)
metallurgy was 4.0 lengths behind zero.
our annabel was 2.84 behind zero
bold mirage was -3.49 lengths
white foil was plus 7.8 lengths surprised me that it was such short odds

I hate muddying the waters with calcs like this but is often a helpful guide.
regards
(and keep up the good work)

[Paddy]

Son of Vasac just got there, phew ! boyo was I relieved. Finished up the day on a high note thanks to the multiples. Even though track slow chucked in your rated selections with SOV for top two possies (Kiwi Hombre ran 2nd & Yoplay 4th both at good odds), and then included your sneaks for remaining possies (Entre...whatever 3rd, also at good odds)

[Paddy]

Hey topsy99, what's happened to your weekly tips posting, was awaiting this week's with interest!

[topsy99]

sorry. was late getting to the net and didnt get to the line in time.

tough day though probably good thing. backed fuordie and kentiara (saved my bacon)
have only one interest today that is
lady quest in race 3 at Elwick (Hobart in case you havent heard of it)
will be better organised next week regards and thanks for asking. p.s. that rating that i do if you like could put that on the selections as well if anyone interested.
may give an indication of it worth.

[Sandgroper]

Good to hear you had a win Paddy, was actually at Belmont yesterday, and did finish in front on the day myself (even with the slow track). They changed the track rating officially to slow after race 5, but suggest it was already slow before this race, and on the worst side of dead for the majority of the meeting.

Uncle Brian in the first, ran on very well, but was well beaten.

Master Park finally found the post, Rain Lover.

topsy99, sorry, have no idea what all your margins etc mean. Have you posted some background info previously, or would you elaborate please.

Re your comments on Kentiara:

Firstly you need to remember I'm rating for a dead or better track. Race 7 was run on a slow track. Watched this race on course, other horses in this race handled the track condition on the day much better than both Anchor The Stars and Key Flyer.

Secondly I did rate Kentiara. I rate (where I have previous performance ratings) all starters. Only post top two rated (sometime 3) for each race. Where there is a number of equal top chances, normally select likely better value. eg. see my earlier comments re Son Of Vasac.

Finally, as it turns out I did back Kentiara myself. Kentiara was rated equal 3rd for this race, and only 1 length from top rated. Price offered for Kentiara exceeded what I had calculated to be true price, and being by a sire (Metal Storm) that does throw some wet track winners, I backed accordingly, and did have a nice win on this particular horse.

I welcome any further input, feedback or comment topsy99 (and others), after all that's what this forum is all about.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-09-01 11:50 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-09-02 08:29 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Just the 2 winners and another 7 placed.
Couple of near misses.

Will include in to-date stats, as the official track rating for some of the meet, was dead.


Sat & Hol meetings only, where track was dead or better:
All up, 292 selections for 140 placings. Of the 140 placed, 60 were also winners.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-09-01 12:10 ]</font>

[Rain Lover]

G'day Groper. Didn't hang around last weekend as a certain VERY LARGE ISP kept showing me the door. Had much the same result as you, 2 wins - Master Park, Golden Delicious and a swag of placings, some close. Haven't had a chance to look at this week.
Good luck.