Do you like one big one or lots of small ones

[ubetido]

Hi all

Just wondering what you feel you are most comfortable with. If you wanted to win $1000 a week over the course of a year would you look for one big bet per week.

So eg. 1 selections for the week at say 2/1 $500 bet for return of $1500

or many bets for the week and keep outlays lower but turnover higher and possibley betting more than one per race.

Cheers
ubetido

[partypooper]

I find the S/R is the same anyway (approx) so end result i.e. Profit on Turnover remains the same as well. But for me, feels more comfortable to have several smaller bets, just my 2 cents.

[Mr. Logic]

To make $1000 a week by betting $500 on a $3.00 winner each week is impossible.

It is a complete fallacy that all you need to do is be very selective and you can back one winner at good odds every week.

Let's see how we go, assuming $1000 is bet on one horse each week. So I'll start a thread in the tipping forum. Who'll volunteer?

[partypooper]

Like I said the S/R remains about the same, so does the POT(LOT) , in fact (unfortunately) purely from a mathematical point of view it can be broken down even further, take all the 1/1 shots backed in say 2 years, S/R will be about 45-48%, 2-1 shots S/R about 30%, 3-1 shots about 20-22% etc etc etc. that's why there are such things as bookmakers ???

All of the above is of course pertaining to mere mortals. hee hee

[crash]

The number of bets most punters have has everything to do with what action level is the most pleasurable and comfortable. It has nothing to do with good mathematics because at bad odds [odds overall are against the punter] the more bets, the greater the losses.

Conversely, the less bets a punter has the better. If a punter spent $10k on bets a year and the average real odds were say 2 or 3/1, the punter has far more 'chance' of making a profit with 1 [only] $10k bet than with a 1000 $10 bets.
For starters, If the $10k bet wins the punter has doubled his money and he has a 2 or 3/1 odds of doing so. What would the odds be of DOUBLING your money after 12mths. with 1000 $10 bets? .... HUGE !!!

Basically, the more small bets a punter has the larger the % loss of total money staked at the end of the year and vis-a-vis [there are plenty of maths sites that will explain this].
Think of Russian Roulette. Would you like one go at collecting on a big wager, or would you like lots of small goes for the same money? :-)
It's identical odds for each pull of the trigger, but just like punting on horses, the more you pull the trigger another element, 'chance' [not odds] starts working against you in ever increasing amounts :-)

Punters that have minimal losses or the rare few who make a profit, all have one thing in common ...they have fewer and larger bets [unless they are O/S pros. working tiny percentages and betting exchange turnover kick-backs on exotics] than the majority of punters.

[Oaksnaf]

I don't totally agree with that statement crash.

In all honesty, I have made a profit with my favourite betting tool. "Flexi bet".

Selecting four dogs and boxing them in a trifecta for a $2 Flexi bet. I only receive 8.333% of the winnings. But that only means that a trifecta has to pay $25 for me to make a profit. And when you are selecting half the field, the strike rate appears to be quite good.

But of course before that, I was a swing.


For example, If I select 1-4 meetings on a given day, that could mean between 6 and 48 races. At $2, the total days spending could be anywhere from $12 and $96. Applying the 8.33% flexi return, means that in total I only have to acheive a $150 trifecta in the six races to break even. Or over the 48 races, that would mean selecting a total of $1200.

Mind you the same applies with F4 betting for me aswell, with the biggest return at $257 from the $2 bet.

That selection alone allowed me to have 126 losing selections in a row. If I should ever have to many losses in a row.

Ive had my good wins (by my standards) when playing around with first 4's.

14/10/2006 15:32 14/10/2006 ****2R 7 3,4-3,4,7,10-1,2,3,4,7,10-1,2,3,4,7,10 (FLEXI 1.3888%) P First 4 1 (COST)$1.00 (CREDIT)$98.46

AND

18/10/2006 11:50 18/10/2006 SYDR 1 3,4-1,3,4,7-1,3,4,6,7,9-1,3,4,6,7,9 (FLEXI 1.3888%) P First 4 1 (COST) $1.00 (CREDIT) $139.89


But there are moments when you have a slip of the finger:

17/10/2006 14:38 17/10/2006 BRIH 6 1,3,5,7-1,2,3,5,7,8-1,2,3,5,7,8 P Trifecta 1 (COST) $80.00 (CREDIT) $65.30

Forgot to press the flexi button there. Thankfully it won.

I do have a lot of little bets. There is no way known I am going to spend $100 in a single bet (unless I make a mistake again). WHY? Because I have a fear of losing that amount of money in a split second.

Im going through my account records at the moment, trying to find the trifecta 8.33% period, and its taking its time.


Here is an example::

Date (AEST) Time (AEST) Event Date Meeting Rc Selections S Bet Type Base Inv. Debit Credit
31/10/2006 22:12 31/10/2006 MELG 11 4,6,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 22:10 31/10/2006 BRIG 9 2,4,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 22:05 31/10/2006 PERG 10 2,3,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:59 31/10/2006 MELH 8 PLA 3 L 0
31/10/2006 21:59 31/10/2006 MELH 8 WIN 3 L Win and Place 1 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:54 31/10/2006 SYDG 10 2,6,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:48 31/10/2006 MELG 10 3,5,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:48 31/10/2006 MELG 10 3,5,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:46 31/10/2006 PERH 5 3,8,9,11 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:40 31/10/2006 PERG 9 3,4,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:39 31/10/2006 ****2G 10 1,2,5,6 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:31 31/10/2006 MELG 9 1,3,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:30 31/10/2006 MELG 9 1 L Win 1 $1.00
31/10/2006 21:26 31/10/2006 BRIG 8 1,2,5,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P First 4 2 $2.00 (CREDIT)$257.94
31/10/2006 21:23 31/10/2006 PERG 8 2,3,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:23 31/10/2006 ****2G 9 2,5,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:13 31/10/2006 SYDG 8 1,2,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:10 31/10/2006 MELG 8 1,4,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L First 4 2 $2.00
31/10/2006 21:08 31/10/2006 BRIG 7 1,3,5,9 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 (CREDIT)$5.55
31/10/2006 21:05 31/10/2006 PERG 7 1,4,6,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00




Date (AEST) Time (AEST) Event Date Meeting Rc Selections S Bet Type Base Inv. Debit Credit
30/10/2006 21:18 30/10/2006 BRIG 6 1,2,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 21:16 30/10/2006 ****1G 6 3,4,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 21:14 30/10/2006 ADLG 9 4,5,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $12.29
30/10/2006 21:07 30/10/2006 SYDG 6 1,2,4,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $3.94
30/10/2006 21:03 30/10/2006 MELG 7 1,2,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:59 30/10/2006 BRIG 5 1,4,6,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $2.78
30/10/2006 20:56 30/10/2006 ****1G 5 1,2,5,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $12.92
30/10/2006 20:54 30/10/2006 ADLG 8 1,2,5,6 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 $6.74
30/10/2006 20:50 30/10/2006 SYDG 5 2,5,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:46 30/10/2006 MELG 6 1,2,3,7,8 (FLEXI 2.5%) L First 4 3 $3.00
30/10/2006 20:38 30/10/2006 BRIG 4 3,5,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:35 30/10/2006 ****1G 4 1,10 L Duet 0.5 $0.50
30/10/2006 20:35 30/10/2006 ****1G 4 2,6,7,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:33 30/10/2006 ADLG 7 1,2,5,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:26 30/10/2006 MELG 5 1,2,5,7,8 (FLEXI 2.5%) P First 4 3 $3.00 $3.13
30/10/2006 20:26 30/10/2006 MELG 5 1,2,5,7 (FLEXI 8.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00
30/10/2006 20:22 30/10/2006 BRIG 3 1,3,6,8 (FLEXI 8.3333%) P Trifecta 2 $2.00 (CREDIT)$33.01
30/10/2006 20:21 30/10/2006 ****1G 3 6,10 L Duet 0.5 $0.50
30/10/2006 20:18 30/10/2006 ****1G 3 1,2,3 (FLEXI 33.3333%) L Trifecta 2 $2.00



Now hopefully all this mumbo jumbo comes out in readible format. But all in all, I have to say I have made a handy profit.


So I have to say, that I disagree with your statement crash, and I do have the proof to back up my own statements.

I think my worst run was 27 bets without a single return. Or something similar to that anyway. In the end, I enjoy my small bets, and am not willing to spend $100 on a single selection/bet.

[crash]

Oakensnaf,

Your presenting a personal situation as mathematical argument and 'evidence'.

Probability is what turns the tide in any Zero sum game. The more you play it the more you will lose. If you can create an edge [odds in your overall favour], then the opposite of course applies.

If you have a 2/1 odds [against] of crossing a paddock with an angry young bull in it and only do it once, you have probability working for you the best it possibly can, do it 1000 times and you will be gored to death for sure on one of those trips because probability [not odds] worsens with each trip. The odds of course remain exactly the same with each trip. Odds are not the same as probability and confusing the two is quite common.

What a maths site has to say on the subject:

A jar contains 1 blue mable and 3 red marbles.

Odds are expressed as the number of chances for (or against) versus
the number of chances against (or for). So, since there is 1 chance
of your picking the blue, and 3 chances of your picking red, the odds
are 3 to 1 AGAINST you picking the blue. For odds in favor, we just
reverse them. The odds are 1 to 3 IN FAVOR OF you picking the blue.

This can be a little confusing, so I'll say it again. If you express
odds as AGAINST, you put the number of chances against first, versus
the number of chances for. If you express odds as IN FAVOR OF, you
put the chances for the event happening first.

Note that this does NOT mean that the probability is 1/3 for or
against in the above example.

To convert odds to probability, we have to ADD the chances. So, if
the odds against a horse winning are 4 to 1, this means that, out of
5 (4 + 1) chances, the horse has 1 chance of winning. So the
PROBABILITY of the horse winning is 1/5 or 20 percent.

And put another way:

Lets first show the difference between probability and odds in another way, just
to be sure we're using the same terminology. The probability of an
event is:

------------ (Chances for)
P(x) = ------------------------------
------------ (Total chances)

So, for example, the probability of drawing an ace in a single deck of
52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13 (or about 0.077 = 7.7%).

Odds, on the other hand, are given as:

(Chances for) : (Chances against)

Of course, (Total chances) = (Chances for) + (Chances against), so
we can determine (Chances against) as (Total chances) - (Chances for).
The odds of drawing an ace in a deck of cards are
4:.....(52-4) = 4:48 = 1:12.

It's easy to work out from the above that for each chance [bet] you take when the odds are against you, your situation is worsening because of negative probability.

[Oaksnaf]

Two legs of 15 horses. Picking both winners is 1/225. But those two events are not dependant on each other, meaning that even if you win your first leg, you are not more likely to lose the second. Despite probability explaining that you do.

That is the way that I look at it.

[crash]

Of course you are exactly right. Where probability enters the situation and worsens your chances, is when you have the same bet more than once.

The odds for the single event [or bet] of course remain the exactly the same as you point out. But we are talking here [this thread] of one bet versus many and that is where 'probability' does it's business and why Casinos make a fortune [lots of small bets].

[ubetido]

Hi all

Interesting most likely i would not be able to pick one bet per week and come out in front as thats not how i bet.

As far as lots of small bets well a few i have had some correspondence with over time have done pretty well betting small bets doing some 1000 - 1500 races a week and lots of money management, and making regular income.

I tried but couldn't do it sitting on the comp some 10hrs a day.

Oaksnaf
Could you tell me more about this fexi bet:
Which venue bets like this

How the returns are caculated

Does one have to box all selections etc or can one have combination like 3x5x9 for example.

Cheers
ubetido

[Oaksnaf]

I think this flexi bet is only applicable to those who use STAB.

But it is an amazing tool.

A flexi bet can only be used on trifecta's/first fours and quaddies.

EG: Box 3 Trifecta costs $6
But you only want to spend $2.
$2 is 33.333% of $6 meaning, that if your selection wins, you get 33% of the payout.

If you want to box 4 selections, which normally costs $24, but you only want to spend $2.
Then you get 8.33% of the winnings. The advantage in this, is that you dont have to spend large amounts of money. The downside to this is that you dont get the dividend in full.

But your selections dont have to be boxed, I was just drawing a few examples. Basically whatever % you decide to bet of what the actual bet would cost, then that will be the % of dividends you are entitled to, if you selections win.




--------------


So theoretically crash, it would be best for all of us to select one bet per week and spend what we would spend in a given week on that selection?

One bet per week, is better than two per week, two per week, is better than four per week. But in the end, our strike rate needs to stay the same does it not. Whether we need to win 15% of the time on our single bets placed once a week over a whole year. 52 bets. Or whether we place 10 bets per week, 520 per year, our strike rate would still need to be the same for us to make a profit.

Lets say our average winner is $8. We have a 15% strike rate.

Once a week bets:::

Selections: 52
Winners: 8
Layout: 52
Return: 64
Profit $12

10 bets per week:::

Selections: 520
Winners: 80
Layout: 520
Return: 640
Profit: $120

BUT we lay $1000 a selection on the One Bet Per Week. And we lay $100 a winner on the 10 Bets Per Week. And the profit ends up to be exactly the same amount.

Although the benefit of the 520 selections, is that we can at least recoup a run of 15 outs. A run of 15 outs in a 52 selection year, would well cause a fair amount of dilema's for those who might not be financially equip, nor mentally equip.

The benefit of one selection per week, is if you end up having a run of winners. Even 2-4 wins in a row. This would create quite a nice feeling I would imagine.

I find having more selections, gives me security in my mind. Theoretically I just need to win as often etc etc. Of course I am not ready to bet one selection per week and stake the same amount of money I would over 10 selections per week on that one alone.

Probability wise, would both scenarios not be the same? In the end both situations are only different in regards to a time frame. Well I think anyway.

And if we are to continually make a profit on single bets per week, then would we not need to learn how to make a profit over 520 selections? Because if we want to make a living for 10 years, we need to know how to make a profit over those 520 selections.

Or am I missing the point?

[partypooper]

No Oaksnaf you haven't missed the point EXACTLY right.

PS. I asked my wife the same question as the name of this thread and she hit me with frying pan!!!! hee hee!

[crash]

Oaksnaf,

[QUOTE=crash]The number of bets most punters have, has everything to do with what action level is the most pleasurable and comfortable. QUOTE]

Above is from my first post on the subject of this thread and this is what you have said in your last thread:

"I find having more selections, gives me security in my mind"

Essentially we are agreeing with each other --more bets = more emotional security --which truly is 'all in our minds', because we all like punting and the amount of bets we have has very little to do with best science and everything to do with how we feel.

There are very good reasons 1c poker machines are often banned in many places and flexi-betting [essentially the 1c poker machine of punting] should be banned for exactly the same reasons.
Interestingly, it has been introduced into the poorest state in Aust., just like 1c poker machines, which are to be found [mostly] in the poorest suburbs.

Both the 1c poker machine and flexi-betting, introduce the wost possible probability of winning and flexi-betting encourages punters to spend on the worst possible TAB take-out [25%+] bet, the exotic.

The question: 'one big bet or many small bets"? [also] has a mathematical side to it as well as an emotional one and it was worth pointing out here in my previous posts, because as with many things in life we do for both pleasure and/or profit, 'best practice' barely gets a look in. Like most other punters, I don't follow it either!

[Mancunian]

Hi all


Does one have to box all selections etc or can one have combination like 3x5x9 for example.

Cheers
ubetido
ubetido
Flexi bets are available at Vic and NSW TAB over the internet
(only for Trifectas, Quadrellas and First 4s as previously mentioned) and Yes you can have multi Tris such as 3x5x9 etc.
Opens up a whole new world that we couldn't previously afford, dont it
Cheers.... Mancunian

[ubetido]

Hi

Yes on the surface it does appear to be an easy play but i think its still relative to what you bet and return so no better off really.

I would still look for value in the trifectas whatever medium i use. I like to split things up and knowing that the potential for a good collect is there.

In my own experience i have found there is a balance of
Outlay
value
field size
pay out

get that right and money flows its not about how many wins you get but what they pay and how much you outlayed overall that puts your nose infront.

Cheers
ubetido

[crash]

Outlay
value
field size
pay out

Being able to select the right horse[s] to back, helps a little bit too.

[ubetido]

Hi Crash

Yes of course but you have to think a bit outside the box with trifectas. Otherwise the divis versus real winning chance won't work from my point of view.

What is better do you think to take less in the market selection say 10 times

or one multiple combination.

By this i mean
say 2 to win 2 for second and 4 for 3rd in the market horses x 10 times say.
cost $4 *10= $40

dividend say $55 return $550

or
outlay same amount on a combination of say 2*6*6 with more strategically placed combinations with
potential of $1000+

As you know i post ratings on here at times but i dont use the ratings to find the winner i use them to find the trifecta.

Cheers
ubetido