Prices

[michaelg]

For several years I've been looking on-and-off at certain races with 8 to 11 runners. They seemed to have performed quite well but my attention often waned only because I did not know how to put an accurate price on the runners.

Now that the neural website has such a facility, from last Tuesday I priced each runner in the qualifying races, and the results have been quite startling.

There have been 21 races since Tuesday.

Backing EVERY horse to Win with NSW TAB, whether they have been under or over my price, has produced a POT of 17%, and with Mark Read a POT of 21%.

Omitting the fave (there has been one race with equal-faves which I did not look at) so that there were only 20 races for this system. And this has produced an even better result - a POT of 35%, but surprisingly with Mark Read a slightly less POT of 33%.

21 races is much too small an example to think that the method/s could have any merit, but only time will tell.

If there are any qualifying races today I'll list them together with the dollar outlay on each horse.

[michaelg]

Today's races are:

Newcastle R5
1 $22
2 $7
3 $11
4 $30 fave
5 $6
6 2
7 $14
8 $3
9 $1
10 $3
Total $99
Without fave = $69

Ararat R5
1 $30 fave
2 $11
3 $8
4 $8
5 $2
6 $4
7 $11
8 $16
9 $6
10 scr
11 $1
12 $2
Total $97
W'out fave = $67

Ararat
1 $16
2 $6
3 $33 fave
4 $14
5 $9
6 $5
7 $7
8 $7
9 $5
10 $1
Total $101
W'out fave = $68

Sun Coast R7
1 $24 fave
2 $14
3 $9
4 $6
5 $5
6 $3
7 scr
8 $5
9 $14
10 $18
11 $2
Total $100
W'out fave = $76

Total outlay = $397
Without fave = $280

[michaelg]

A disaster yesterday. But as it is still showing an acceptable profit and was the only losing day since Tuesday I'll continue for a few more days and see how it goes. I'll only look at the method that omits the fave. From yesterday's outlay of $280 the return was only $106 for a loss of $174.

Lismore R1
1 - $22
2 - Fave (this happens to be today's sole Lay selection)
3 - $14
4 - $9
5 - $4
6 - $9
7 - scr
8 - $2
9 - $7
Total $67

Lismore R5
1 - fave
2 - $8
3 - $12
4 - $18
5 - $12
6 - $8
7 - $5
8 - $5
9 - $2
10 - $3
11 - $2
Total $75

Lismore R6
1 - fave
2 - $22
3 - $6
4 - $12
5 - $9
6 - $2
7 - $6
8 - $2
9 - $4
10 - $2
11 - $2
Outlay $65

Total outlay $207

[Sportz]

Pretty good so far!

[michaelg]

Yes, it began quite well, then the fave won the third race - bummer.

After a late scratching the outlay was $205 for a return of $278. To date there has been 5 races for an outlay of $485 for a return of $384 which is quite poor, but 3 faves have won from the 7 races.

Today;

Tamworth R8
1 - 16
2 - Fave
3 - 10
4 - 10
5 - 8
6 - 6
7 - 8
8 - 10
9 - 4
10 - 2
Outlay $74

Moe R7
1 Fave
2 - 16
3 - 20
4 - 12
5 - 5
6 - 3
7 - 8
8 - 5
9 - 1
Outlay 70

Townsville R6
1 - 11
2 fave
3 - 8
4 - 18
5 - 11
6 - 8
7 - 2
8 - 5
9 - 3
10 - 6
11 - 2
Outlay $74

Townsville R8
1 - Fave
2 - 5
3 - 6
4 - 11
5 - 5
6 - 11
7 - 14
8 - 8
9 - 2
10 - 6
Outlay $68

Total outlay of $286