which line of betting is best

[rooburger]

i hear so many stories.
which line of betting for a percentage of win overall is best.
win
place
quinella
exacta
trifecta
any2
pick 4
doubles
trebles
quadrella
i think thats it.
i know the board takes a percentage but who has the most success and why?
just a thought

[Neil]

The best markets for punters are available for win betting in suitable races where most horses have exposed form in Sydney and Melbourne on Saturdays.

Eg - Randwick R4 yesterday - finishing order with TF odds (top fluctuation bookmaker odds) and market percentage.

Geigeron $5.00 20%
Mustard $7.00 14.29%
Don Luigi $41.00 2.44%
Regal Express $2.30 43.48%
Where's Dad's Cash $71.00 1.41%
Super Dragon $8.00 12.5%
Bennetts Green $9.50 10.53%

Total market percentage: 104.65%

That destroys the tote which is a starting price market only at around 120%.

Many punters for various reasons do not obtain TF prices - or the even better odds that are often available in the bookmaker betting ring at the track.

But this does not eliminate the fact that these meetings in Sydney first and Melbourne second on Saturdays, with bookmaker TF win odds or even better odds available on track are the best for punters.

Most punters who bet money on the tote in win markets of 120% don't want to know about the above. They'll give the most ridiculous excuses about why it is not correct. After all, who wants to believe that they are consistently getting poor odds about many of their winners?

I've had numerous Pub punters tell me it is nonsense. Now what they have told me is patently absurd and WRONG.

When I attend metropolitan race meetings I have no problems averaging prices that are better than top fluctuation bookmaker odds with my bets.

And I don't just wager a hundred or two on a horse.

If punters are serious they MAKE SURE they do not miss out on these sorts of odds. Serious punters who want to give themselves the best chances of winning don't just play tote betting markets of 120% and worse.

[crash]

TF of who? Bob, Bill and Benny the bookies?

Great TF prices from a cherry picked race, as long as you didn't back the winner !

Syd. R4
Geigeron $5.00w [Bob, Bill and Benny]

$5.20w Uni tab
$5.30w Vic tab

It's all swings and slides in the end regardless of where you bet. You'll gain on some bets and lose on others.

For the average $100 [Sat. bank] punter, they should go with whatever is easy. TAB is easy and there is no credit lines or bank transactions involved either [which incur charges].
Bet cash and get payed in cash or have a TAB account which allows simple cash in cash out transactions. A few cents here and there aren't going to make the slightest difference long term as it all comes out in the wash at about even or maybe a schooner either way!

[darkydog2002]

Absolutely correct and I couldn,t agree more.

Cheers.
darky.

[Neil]

Good point Crash. The winner actually paid a little better on the tote. I have never denied that will happen. That means that some other horses must have been even better odds with the bookies than the tote, as it is fact that most tote punters clamour around the top few horses in the betting market generally sending them around at inflated unders compared to when bookmaker betting markets are below 110%.

However logic must indicate that if a punter is betting into a market of 105% the chances of getting better odds overall MUST be significantly better than when betting into a tote starting price only market of 120%.

Logic MUST indicate than the winners in a 105% market MUST overall be at better odds than in a 120% market. Not every winner, but overall the winners MUST pay better odds.

I remember when we were promoting another TAB with a much smaller take we met with the same statistically invalid arguments here from punters that the odds were no better and in fact or worse.

As for "cherry picking" a race. Hardly. I've got far better things to do with my company's time than replying to someone's question on a forum by using a "cherry picked" race so as to give them an answer that is wrong. So let's look at the next race on the programme at Randwick last Saturday.

Randwick R5.

Break The Barrier $13.00 7.69%
Grandiloquent $5.50 18.18%
Red Robert $12.00 8.33%
Prima Nocte $4.80 20.83%
Operatta Lass $4.60 21.74%
Taken At The Flood $4.80 20.83%
Lancaster Park $61.00 1.64%
Legend Of Goku $401 0.25%
Beat The Tide $26.00 3.85%

Market percentage 103.34%. Surprise. This market is even closer to 100% than the one I allegedly "cherry picked"!

Personally I wouldn't waste my time betting on horses if I was forced to only bet into absurd markets of 120%+ which are so massively weighted against the punter.

Most punters unfortunately choose what is "easy". That is why they are just about guaranteed to lose money over the long term. As in life in general choosing the "easy" option does not usually succeed. I just hope it is entertainment money they have budgeted to lose and that they do not seriously expect to win at racing choosing what is the "easy" option.

TF of who? Bob, Bill and Benny the bookies?

Great TF prices from a cherry picked race, as long as you didn't back the winner !

Syd. R4
Geigeron $5.00w [Bob, Bill and Benny]

$5.20w Uni tab
$5.30w Vic tab

It's all swings and slides in the end regardless of where you bet. You'll gain on some bets and lose on others.

For the average $100 [Sat. bank] punter, they should go with whatever is easy. TAB is easy and there is no credit lines or bank transactions involved either [which incur charges].
Bet cash and get payed in cash or have a TAB account which allows simple cash in cash out transactions. A few cents here and there aren't going to make the slightest difference long term as it all comes out in the wash at about even or maybe a schooner either way!

[crash]

Bookies have a very limited use by date [10yrs at most I rekon] and in the end it's paying price that counts to the punter, not market % [unless they are betting every horse in the race] which is a bit of smoke and mirrors anyway.
Look at the prices on horses with a good chance of winning a race and the bookies are consistently offering lower prices [and no exotics service either].

A runner showing TF with a bookie at $70 and $50 on the tote is smoke and mirrors because no one is backing it [except on the tote due to overwhelming punter numbers]. That's how they work their % to look good. They load up their odds on the unbet runners while fleecing you on the lower end as the above winner 'Geigeron' clearly shows.

Put up the winners [not market percentages] of Metro Saturday cards for the past 12mths and the tote prices for the same period and see who is paying the top price overall. Certainly not the bookies!

You will make a bit more from the AIS. etc but you will do even better with Betfair. for the average $100 a week punter though, a tote account wins hands down. Show me a bookie [or anyone else] who will do a fexi-bet trifecta?

[Neil]

... Look at the prices on horses with a good chance of winning a race and the bookies are consistently offering lower prices [and no exotics service either].
If you are talking about some of the absurd bookmaker markets midweek then I agree with you. I wouldn't waste my time with them. But I did not post about them.

Your arguments are statistically wrong for the meetings I posted about - meetings in Melbourne and Sydney where there is decent betting turnover like on Saturdays.

Hubcat won at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Tote odds as low as $2.60 to a $2.90 high on SuperTab. Bookmaker odds. $3.40 for both starting price and top fluctuation odds.

This is my last post on the issue. I am just too busy.

Punters will believe what they want to believe.

[crash]

If you are talking about some of the absurd bookmaker markets midweek then I agree with you. I wouldn't waste my time with them. But I did not post about them.

Your arguments are statistically wrong for the meetings I posted about - meetings in Melbourne and Sydney where there is decent betting turnover like on Saturdays.

Hubcat won at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Tote odds as low as $2.60 to a $2.90 high on SuperTab. Bookmaker odds. $3.40 for both starting price and top fluctuation odds.

This is my last post on the issue. I am just too busy.

Punters will believe what they want to believe.

Your cherry picking again Neil because you [accidentally] picked the wrong race in your first cherry picking effort.
So now you have come up with another 2 examples from about 50 Sat. Metro races. That's hardly substantiating your claims let alone overwhelming 'evidence' !

A few grains of wheat are not an apple pie Neil.

I'm sure you could find another few examples if you look hard :-)

[Shaun]

I agree with a couple of points IAS and betfair or any online bookie offer the best option from the tabs, but i would be taking best odds rather then TF or SP tabs are hopeless with thier take outs.

If we want the best option betfair is it if you can get your bet on, atleast they won't ban or restrict your betting as most online services will if you are successful why do you think the tabs tried so hard to ban them instead of coming up with there own version.

I give it a few years before the tabs realise that this is the way to go instead of restricting punters they take up the challenge and introduce a version of betfair.

There is only a couple good points about the tab

1) large betting pools.

2) Almost unrestricted cash bets.

3) Easy of transactions if you use your home tab.

Yes in the long run you will be taking a lower price for your selection, but if you are successful and can make a profit does it realy matter because it is the profit thats important if you can make 15% profit from the bookies and only 9% with the tabs then double your staking to make more profit, atleast they won't restrict you.

[crash]

I should point out the 'spin' in my arguments for the TAB was regarding '$100 a week punters' .... small Punters [not much point having a phone account with a bookie or heading to the track].
The 3 points outlined above by Shaun are 3 very good reasons the TAB's kill any other form of bet taker for most punters.

The last thing the small punter needs is to get his/her credit cards involved in punting. Going on the latest figures regarding credit card debt, the average Joe can't manage BASIC purchase restraints. How do you think he would go managing credit card punting?

[Chrome Prince]

Surely obtaining the best value is paramount to a punter's success and profit?

The problem is the TAB is like a box of chocolates, you never know what the final dividend will be.

Betfair is doing so well because of the less takeout = lower market percentages.

Even a $100 a week punter is turning over $5,000 per annum.

A quick review of TAB vs SP even shows that the shorter end of the market (say first four in line of betting) is favourable to the SP prices, while the longer priced horses (bolters) are more favoured to the TAB prices.

Then we have Betfair and IAS which are even better in some instances.

It's just shopping around for the best deal.

[crash]

Here is what Lidsey Gallagher [Brisbane's leading rails bookmaker] had to say recently about 'Top Fluctuation betting':

'There has been a lot of hype and advertising from bookmakers as they compete to outdo each other by offering bigger and better incentives to attract new clients. Not that there's anything wrong with that, of course. It's the way of the world these days as the strategies traditionally used by mainstream business are picked up by the smarter operators in the racing world.

However, punters should keep their wits about them and look beyond the hype to make sure all is what it appears to be in relation to some of these "appealing offers" to punters.

For example, I am amused at times by the fuss that is often made about top fluctuation offers, especially when IAS from Darwin has a runner at each major track in order to flatten prices prior to the price being sent out when they are committed to particular horses.

If they've laid a horse heavily at top fluctuation (remember top fluctuation bets usually have to be made at least 30 minutes before the race, before on-track bookmakers start betting on the race), the runners knock the price off as soon on-track bookmakers put their prices up so that the first official call that is relayed off the track is much lower than the price taken by the runners.

In the defence of IAS, at least they don't sack clients if they win like Sportingbet and others; they just quote shorter odds and if accepted, have the opportunity to bet back at better odds on the track. Consequently, when larger winning bets are placed with them at top fluctuation, the top fluctuation price may not reflect the best price that has actually been bet on course'.

[Neil]

I'll add another general comment.

Wagering on horses here is still in the Stone Age.

With an online broking account one has access to live prices, market depth etc. of every listed company on the ASX and with the click of a mouse can place a buy or sell order literally for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Punters should have online access to live prices from the betting ring from all bookmakers fielding at each meeting on one convenient screen/desktop and be able to select the bookmaker, odds on offer and place their wager.

[crash]

Amen to that Neil.

I was once juggling 5 accounts [not just TAB either] trying to make sure I got best prices. In the end I just threw my hands up in the air.
I now just run two and ignore all the hype floating around. Sometimes I get best prices, sometimes I don't .......that's racing.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Crash.
"Show me a bookie [or anyone else] who will do a fexi-bet trifecta?"

One mob that does 1 cent Trifectas is Betezy.

[rooburger]

some great debate ,this is what we like on the forum.
no wonder this site has stayed while others have fallen.

[the freek]

Bhagwan, I.A.S. does !