Betfair Advantage Tool

[AngryPixie]

This looks kinda interesting. No time to play with it today, but I'm keen to get any first impressions.

Pixie

[Mark]

I can't open mine.

[jfc]

I believe the download only works with IE.

And nine only worked after repeatedly closing the IE window then reclicking the link from the Betfair email.

[Shaun]

Since those a-holes in the WA government have decided to have us banned it won't do me much good.

[AngryPixie]

Had a quick look over lunch. Looks just the thing I could use, and at last one of the Betfair tools works with the Australian markets. Having the comparative odds is nice. I do something similar with a tabbed browser.

[denis m]

where do you get the betfair advantage tool

[AngryPixie]

where do you get the betfair advantage tool
http://bat.betfair.com.au/

[tailwag]

My first impression is that it is telling you nothing new, it's just the three main totes, you see exactly the same on Sky channel. Sure they are trying to push you towards their product by saying the advantage over the totes is a certain factor, but everyone knows the commissions are far less than what the totes take out.

I guess the fact they have all the data on the one screen saves watching Sky and having Betfair open on your computer, and I guess you can switch and have a bet without opening a second browser instance. The radio is a nice in-built touch also.

When you think you are going to get an advantage you will be mistaken, there is no real advantage, they are not disclosing anything that the rest of the world does not already have. Is putting it all on one screen and advantage at the end of the day?

A real advantage would be when they disclose non-publicly accessible data that can be used in the evaluation process, afterall we want to pick winners, not see tons of price fluctuations.

Seeing it is a beta at this stage, they may enhance it with subsequent rebuilds, hopefully they will stop treating us like dummies and show us the TAB's price and let us think they have done us a favor.

Tailwag
(woof)

[AngryPixie]

Yes the "Betfair is your friend" side of it is a bit painful. Would like to see other markets available (coming in later versions from all accounts), and the ability to place a bet/lay without having to go to the Betfair tab. Maybe they could combine it with a much better version of that dreadful "auto-Betfair" tool.

[tailwag]

Yes the "Betfair is your friend" side of it is a bit painful. Would like to see other markets available (coming in later versions from all accounts), and the ability to place a bet/lay without having to go to the Betfair tab. Maybe they could combine it with a much better version of that dreadful "auto-Betfair" tool.It seems to me that there is simply nothing new under the sun, what was in the past is still here only served up differently to make it look new. By this I mean, there are the punters and the various betting entities, with a supposedly clear line down the middle.

The amount of money that the punters has is finite and seemingly ever decreasing, and the betting side have no idea of what to offer the punter, so they do endless comparison after comparison, following each other and we inturn follow them looking for a premium and the whole thing goes round in circles.

Meanwhile the betting entities get fatter, the punters get skinner and not one new thing has been created to increase wealth for over a century in the Industry.

There were more jobs in the game 100 years ago, better more even racing, probably the same or fewer rorts and everyone got a pay day occasionally.

Today, the money is less due to a myriad of reasons, chiefly more opposition, and there are more players attempting to take the smaller industry pool therefore commissions are going to have to go down to the bone, or fold. This in turn will give a poorer quality product because when you are not making a profit you are not going to invest in research and new areas.

So the endless spiral continues with the closure of tracks, when people die they are not replaced. This is nothing to do with horses per se which have improved, technology has improved, communication and transportation have all improved, yet the industry with the exception of a few major carnivals is in dire straights.

Perhaps the message is clear, the game started as a working mans game and ever since it became a pseudo social activity, it has started to tumble. Do the cork popping set provide the blood of the industry - turnover? Is it time to hand the game back to the battler and let it grow to somewhere near where it used to be?

Oop's this has turned into a rant, sorry - nothing better to do today.

Tailwag
(woof)

[Mark]

Still can't open it !!!.............and won't bother.

[odericko]

just got home from work decided to have a look at this new tool and so far it gave out wyong race 8 numbers 3, 4 5, 8 and ascot 2, 4 5, 11 ..i dont know what you people were looking at but i was observing the green.. and all i can sy so far is wow....what a tool.....ty betfair

[Chrome Prince]

I can't get it to work after installing the complete toolkit either. It just goes to the same page and goes blank.

For those that can get it to work, I don't think you're looking at enough of it's other features apart from odds. It also displays form, and history of prices.

[AngryPixie]

just got home from work decided to have a look at this new tool and so far it gave out wyong race 8 numbers 3, 4 5, 8 and ascot 2, 4 5, 11 ..i dont know what you people were looking at but i was observing the green.. and all i can sy so far is wow....what a tool.....ty betfair
Odericko. Do you have it set to "Highest TAB Price" when your looking at the green? That's the default I think.

Others. Have had no prob's installing on desktop and notebook. WinXP and WinXP Tablet Edition. Poo's its pants a bit if you don't have internet access when you start it up, or if you're behind a proxy.

[jfc]

The predominant impression I've gained from here and elsewhere is that no poster has actually managed to figure how to gain anything useful from this tool.

Frankly I don't believe this is entirely the tool's fault.

Why has no one else bothered investigating the historical data it provides?

By my rough calculations, for the 176 races from Saturday to Tuesday, Betfair beat all the 3 TABs 70 times.

That is for 40% of races the winner paid best on Betfair.

As opposed to the expected 25% if there was no advantage between the 4.

In other words Betfair won 60% more than its fair share.

Makes me wonder about those who claim that "overs" rarely win on Betfair. Could the fabled prism of self-interest be clouding their views?

Feel free to run your own tests.

[jfc]

The predominant impression I've gained from here and elsewhere is that no poster has actually managed to figure how to gain anything useful from this tool.

Frankly I don't believe this is entirely the tool's fault.

Why has no one else bothered investigating the historical data it provides?

By my rough calculations, for the 176 races from Saturday to Tuesday, Betfair beat all the 3 TABs 70 times.

That is for 40% of races the winner paid best on Betfair.

As opposed to the expected 25% if there was no advantage between the 4.

In other words Betfair won 60% more than its fair share.

Makes me wonder about those who claim that "overs" rarely win on Betfair. Could the fabled prism of self-interest be clouding their views?

Feel free to run your own tests.

[Chrome Prince]

Finally got it working.

You need to reboot the computer for parts of it to install correctly to the registry and the rerun the setup. It now works very well.

I have a feeling that this is the very tip of the iceberg as far as development and look forward to updates.

For what it's worth, I don't believe that the unders on Betfair win and the overs fail to. I'm of the opinion that people who watch the firmers win, are simply taking poor value. It's also been stated around the traps that the country races have more favourites win, this is only with regards to field size and no other reason, so automatically wrong conclusions are drawn. If the average field size at Flemington was less than 10, you'd see more favourites win, but at skinnier prices - the loss is the same.

The only complaint about the tool is that it gives one Betfair price and not the high, low, median, volume etc. I also couldn't find any lay movements.
Other than that, I think it lays the foundations for a really helpful all in one tool.

jfc, I agree that for my part the one touch historical prices and form is definitely a very strong part of the tool.

[tailwag]

Now that is the absolute crux of the matter, how do they actually derive at their price, is it the average, the mean, the most backed or layed, or is a price they arbitrarily pick that yields impressive results for them.

<O:p</O:p
How do we know that this is not just marketing hype and that they are not presenting the best possible light on their prices, we REALLY don't know because their price selection methodology is not transparent in this respect.<O:p</O:p

<O:p</O:p
You could sit there and compare and do the math to 'Keep 'em honest' but that is more trouble than its worth. It would help if they actually spelt out how they derive their price. We know there is a high, low and mean average and we also know that more money is traded at certain price points, which is more important than the high and low figure in my mind.

<O:p</O:p
Then it would also be smart to see which way the trend was forming i.e. the price being supported on the way out (Blowing) or on the way in (Firming). There is a lot more we need to know about the price that Betfair place alongside their name and claim is better than the other Totes.

<O:p</O:p
A final analysis benefit would be to convert all commissions to either the same amount or delete them completely so that each entity had a baseline starting position, then and only then would comparing a betting exchange price to a Pari-mutuel pool make any sense whatsoever.

<O:p</O:p
Yawn, of course you have an obligation to your shareholders (in this case owners) to present your product in the best light possible, that is called advertising, and anyone who believes in a companies self advertising is simply not too bright.<O:p</O:p

[AngryPixie]

It would help if they actually spelt out how they derive their price.<O:p</O:pUmm, well they have. It's the last traded price. Just can't find where I read that.

The tool needs alot of work and can't really be used for anything seriously as it is.

[AngryPixie]

Here it is

http://bat.betfair.com.au/FAQ.htm#q5

[tailwag]

Umm, well they have. It's the last traded price. Just can't find where I read that.

The tool needs alot of work and can't really be used for anything seriously as it is.Exactly my point, the last price traded means nothing in the scheme of things. It is not indicative of any trend, it does not point to where the bulk of the action happened, and it can be so far out that it's not funny.

On numerous occassions I have noted that the bulk of activity might have been at the $3.00 amount for tens of thousands of dollars, the a $24.00 bet (The last bet recorded) might have been at $4.50 because someone was just plain desperate with only a split second to go before the jump & Cancel sequence.

This would then by their reckoning mean the 'Starting price' was $4.50 when in fact it should have been $3.00. This is a flawed model they are using.

[michaelg]

I have recorded some final trade prices on Betfair for the selections in my Lay systems, and in every instance the price shown on Betfair Advantage is lower than my recorded price. I can't remember which particular selection it was but the final Betfair trade price was slightly inxs of $3.00 yet the price shown on the B.A. site was $2.22. In more instances than not, the difference is not all that great but as I said it has always been lower.

Maybe the real final trade price is known only after the records on the Betfair page for a particular race are no longer accessible to the public?

I sent their customer service an e-mail a few days ago about this perceived anomaly and they replied it will be referred to their technical people.

[jfc]

Apropos the above posts the final trade price is wrong, often way out, and anyone who thinks that Betfair will make any effort to fix it obviously is unaware of their abysmal track record. Betfair fixes stuff that isn't broke, thus breaking it, and then doesn't bother fixing the broken result.

Furthermore that final and current trade price is typically useless.

The correct figure that should be displayed alongside the current price is the weighted harmonic mean of matched bets.

This is easy to do, and is essentially what Betfair was proposing as their replacement for the offical SP.

However they show every sign of avoiding that obvious necessity. Presumably they are afraid that instantly being able to assess the true price will help inexperienced players, thus making it harder for the experienced well-informed sharks to rip the newcomers off.

My tip to newcomers is not to get sucked in by what appears to the current price but instead set your own price at what appears to be favourable to you. This means that sometimes your prices won't get matched, but the better prices you do sometimes get more than makes up for not getting set.

[michaelg]

I have received a reply from Betfair.

The price shown on Betfair Advantage is the final Back price displayed on the screen at the time that betting on a race is suspended.

I looked at an example where the final trade price on a particular horse was $100 but because everything available at this price was snapped-up at the death, the next available Back price was $85 - it is this price of $85 that is shown on Betfair Advantage. As a matter of interest, the next available Lay price at the time of suspension was $160.

I assume this is the reason why the final trade price can often be higher than that shown on Betfair Advantage.

[tailwag]

weighted harmonic mean of matched bets.<O:p</O:p

For those who don't know what you are talking about, including me:
<O:p</O:p
Weighted Arithmetic Mean:<O:p</O:p

(x + y)/ 2
<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p

Weighted Harmonic Mean:
<O:p</O:p

2xy / (x + y)<O:p</O:p

<O:p</O:p

Now that's as clear as mud :-)

<O:p</O:p
Okay, so why did you include 'matched bets', why not matched bets/2 which is what is really in play from any one perspective. The 'winner' is refunded this amount from escrow, so it is never really a factor. I guess it won't change the price whether it's matched or halved, but in the interests of correctness.
<O:p</O:p


The matched bets thing is to ramp up perceived volumes, where there aren't any.


Tailwag
<WOOF>
woof<O:p</O:p

[jfc]

TailWag,

Anyone uncertain what a weighted harmonic mean is can easily look it up. Whereupon they will note that your formulas are not weighted.

The well-known fact that Betfair choose to inflate its matched bets figure by doubling them, will not alter the end result - as you yourself noted.

-----

Meanwhile anyone troubling to study the above might find this paradox about weighting cute:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

[tailwag]

TailWag,

Whereupon they will note that your formulas are not weighted.

Yes you are correct, these are 'Simple' formulas, which implies that one would know the difference between 'simple' and 'complex'. Anyhoooo the essential point is that Betfair has a flawed premise which will floor you over time. (pun fully intended).

Woof
Tailwag

[jfc]

In last night's 7 race program at Canterbury 3 winners paid an unflattering $1.04 for the place.

By my figures such a record-equalling farcical situation occurs less than once a year on average. Ominously 2006 managed that feat 5 times.

But the BAT for the relevant races 2,3 & 7 shows divs of $1.16, $1.18 & $1.13.

A staggering 292% extra profit.

Tempting as it is to dream up some sure-fire system from this, my only safe conclusion is that those $1.04 backers were not very bright.

[michaelg]

Hi, jfc.

It's not just last night that this "extra profit" occurs.

Every instance I've looked at I've noticed that the smaller the price on the TAB then the better it is percentagewise on Betfair. It must be a brave person who is offering such a high Lay price hoping that it is matched.

[tailwag]

Hi, jfc.

It's not just last night that this "extra profit" occurs.

Every instance I've looked at I've noticed that the smaller the price on the TAB then the better it is percentagewise on Betfair. It must be a brave person who is offering such a high Lay price hoping that it is matched.I just had a thought (interesting and dangerous) about what would be useful information from Betfair. Working on the averages model rather than the last price taken, it would be useful to know the number of unique bets i.e. that is the number of people who bet, not the total number of bets.

A large punter (in terms of volume) with the wrong opinion in a race can cause the sentiment in the race to be significantly altered. However by knowing the total number of unique punters who are laying as opposed to backing, you can then work out a true weighted average by 'Interest' as opposed to a straighout numeric figure.

In reality what matters is not the size of a persons bet, but whether or not they are correct (win or lose), so knowing the true level of that sentiment regarding any individual horse is paramount, but lost to us because that information is not displayed, but it is obviously known.

Do you think Betfair would ever give that sort of 'Advantage' to us - normal punters? it would make their tool very usable and significantly better than their flawed current model.

Comments?

Tailwag.

[jfc]

I just had a thought (interesting and dangerous) about what would be useful information from Betfair. Working on the averages model rather than the last price taken, it would be useful to know the number of unique bets i.e. that is the number of people who bet, not the total number of bets.

A large punter (in terms of volume) with the wrong opinion in a race can cause the sentiment in the race to be significantly altered. However by knowing the total number of unique punters who are laying as opposed to backing, you can then work out a true weighted average by 'Interest' as opposed to a straighout numeric figure.

In reality what matters is not the size of a persons bet, but whether or not they are correct (win or lose), so knowing the true level of that sentiment regarding any individual horse is paramount, but lost to us because that information is not displayed, but it is obviously known.

Do you think Betfair would ever give that sort of 'Advantage' to us - normal punters? it would make their tool very usable and significantly better than their flawed current model.

Comments?

Tailwag.


I understand that Betfair does a have a facility for indicating market action by (anonymous coded) user, but that is only available to on-course Stewards.

However Betfair's public Market Information screen does provide a good insight into movements.

If I saw a single $2,000 bet crush the price from $10 to $3 I'd probably dismiss that as the actions of an opulent fool.

But if I instead saw a number of significant bets which did not firm the price, that would be consistent with the modus operandi of an astute informed player.

[tailwag]

I understand that Betfair does a have a facility for indicating market action by (anonymous coded) user, but that is only available to on-course Stewards.

However Betfair's public Market Information screen does provide a good insight into movements.

If I saw a single $2,000 bet crush the price from $10 to $3 I'd probably dismiss that as the actions of an opulent fool.

But if I instead saw a number of significant bets which did not firm the price, that would be consistent with the modus operandi of an astute informed player.That is my point exactly, for you to notice those types of bets, you would have to constantly monitor (100% of the time), just the bets on all runners, or on runners you were interested in, leaving you zero time to look at anything else.

Most people open several programs at once, monitor the various totes, corporate bookies, and of course Betfair, so you have to use your time wisely, especiall the closer it gets to racetime.

If the advantage tool, gave us the same type of statistical data as the stewards get, less the account numbers, we would all be better off. The advantage tool then would really be an advantage - why should the stewards be the only ones to source this significant data?

knowing it would not hurt them or anyone else, just make punters even more informed.

Tailwag

[AngryPixie]

Doesn't work on any of my machines today. Think they broke it doing yesterdays "update".

Anyone else or is it just me?

[tailwag]

Doesn't work on any of my machines today. Think they broke it doing yesterdays "update".

Anyone else or is it just me?
I think they had a scheduled upgrade yesterday, that probably coincided with your visit to them.

[jfc]

Doesn't work on any of my machines today. Think they broke it doing yesterdays "update".

Anyone else or is it just me?

Not working for me also.

Try this alternate free one.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/liveodds.asp

[AngryPixie]

Not working for me also.

Try this alternate free one.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/liveodds.asp
Nice one. Thanks.

[AngryPixie]

Works today although I like the "Racing and Sports" one better.