Betting to Win

[luckylast]

I view the posts of other contributors with much interest. It is good to hear the thoughts and views of fellow punters who are looking for the "Holy Grail". Such a forum as long as it is kept positive can only help everyone.

My own method (not strictly a system) which I may add is successful, is as follows:-

I back top weighted horses (Saturdays only), who are not being asked to do any more than they have demonstarted they are capable of previously. I back them under certain conditions where I perecive them to have a class edge. This is a simple approach and to me more a basically sound idea than a strict system. Results have been consistent and proven over a long period of time. Surprisingly enough most of the time you are notbacking the favourite.

I would be interested to hear from others who have a similar approach, or wish to discuss mine in further detail.

Luckylast

[Fryingpan]

Hello Luckylast and everyone

I haven't done much in the way of long term analysis with this one, but it did occur to me a while back and then I mysteriously dropt it out of my head and action.

I thought this.
1) The handicapper is recorded to be good at selecting at least 15-20% of winners in TAB No 1 as a winner.
2) Tipsters assess each race as they see it.
3) Latemail is another assessment of the same race done by someone else
4) TABQ ratings especially 97-100 do gather the winners in a bigger proportion.

So I went ahead and said, "what if you combine them all so that each with their own manner arrives at TAB no1 along with the handicapper?"

With rule number 4 I also said, 97-100 is ok, but if the rating is say 95 or 94 so long as it is one of the top two rated horses that qualifies as a worthy consideration.

With Rule number 2 I used the 2ky race callers first pick. These and the latemail are on the race pages of each race on the TABQ site.


Today Wednesday I combed through the races and the results for selections that pass the above rules were...(unitab)

Wyong
R4 1 Full on Magic 1st $3.20 $1.50
R6 1 Conair 3rd $1.50

Doomben
R1 Raffute 1st $3.20 and $1.50
R2 Riverina Treasure 2nd $1.20

Belmont
R2 Dancing Tycoon 3rd $1.50
R6 1 Cary Kali 1st $2.40 $1.30

So for punters it might be a good candidate for the all up place stakers. Or perhaps an elongated $1/6 win/place sort of bet.

Anyone with ability to analyse the above for a longer term perspective I'd be interested in what you find.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-09-04 19:06 ]</font>

[becareful]

Fryingpan,

I dont record the Latemail/2ky tips in my database so I can't do an assessment based on those. I did run a quick query just on TAB No 1's with high TABQ ratings and the results are not very encouraging. Using all data I have for this year I get the following:

No 1's Rated 100: 2105 starters of which 1193 placed (57%) for a LOSS of $146 (ie. -7% return). 564 winners (27%) with LOSS of $240 (-11% return).
No 1's rated 99: 538 starters of which 289 placed for loss of $26 (-7%). 115 winners for loss of $108 (-20%).
Lower ratings had similar or worse results.

Would the extra filters turn this into a profit? Personally I very much doubt it - in fact I suspect it may make things worse! If all four criteria are met then every mug punter around will be betting on it and the horse will probably start far shorter than its true value - you may get a high strike rate but the dividends will be miserable.

[Fryingpan]

Thanks Becareful,

Much appreciate the clearer perspective of the long run.

Perhaps a reverse view makes this above useful. Maybe they are generally not good to bet on, but bet against. There must have been a lot of low paying dividends amongst the winners and maybe just maybe some at good odds worth the wait. Maybe since they are good place getters economic quinellas are possible with a handful of other ones that can win. Adding the tipster as a consensus might make a significant difference?.... Just thinking out loud.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-09-05 11:17 ]</font>